- Q3 Blowout: Roblox reported $1.92B in Q3 bookings (virtual currency sales), up ~70% YoY and well above estimates [1] [2]. Daily active users jumped ~70% to 151.5 million [3], fuelled by blockbuster titles. GAAP revenue was $1.36B (+48%) [4] and net loss $0.37/sh (better than -$0.49 expected) [5].
- Viral Hits Drive Engagement: New games sparked a user boom. JPMorgan notes that blockbuster “Grow a Garden” was followed by Q3 hits “Steal a Brainrot” and “99 Nights in the Forest,” sending peak concurrent users to 43 million [6]. In late August Roblox set new records: “Steal a Brainrot” drew over 25M players at once [7], eclipsing all prior highs.
- Guidance Raised, Cash Flow Strong: CEO Dave Baszucki hailed “tremendous progress toward our goal of capturing 10% of the global gaming market” [8]. The company lifted full-year 2025 bookings guidance to $6.57–6.62B (from ~$5.9B) [9] and sees Q4 bookings of $2.00–2.05B (47–51% YoY) [10]. Cash flow surged – Q3 operating cash flow +121% to $546M and free cash flow +103% to $443M [11].
- Stock Rally & Price Targets: RBLX stock jumped ~5% pre-market to fresh highs on the news [12]. Wall Street turned bullish: Morgan Stanley initiated an Overweight rating with a $170 target (bull-case $300) [13], and JPMorgan upped its target to $160 [14]. Even formerly wary firms (Jefferies, Piper, BMO) raised targets into the $130–180 range [15]. Moody’s upgraded Roblox’s credit outlook to Positive thanks to rising usage and revenues [16]. Consensus is now Moderate Buy (c.18 Buy vs 1 Sell), average target ~$150–155 [17], signaling further upside.
Q3 Earnings Smash Expectations
Roblox’s Oct. 30 earnings release stunned analysts. Bookings (non-GAAP sales of virtual currency) hit $1.92 billion in Q3 [18], handily beating the $1.65B consensus [19]. This reflected a 70% surge in user spending versus year-ago. Daily active users climbed ~70% YoY to 151.5M [20], and hours spent in games jumped 91% to 39.6 billion. By contrast, GAAP revenue was $1.36B (+48%) [21] and GAAP loss $0.37/share (slightly smaller loss than expected) [22]. In remarks, CEO Dave Baszucki said the quarter showed “tremendous progress we’ve made toward our goal of capturing 10% of the global gaming market” [23].
These blockbuster results enabled Roblox to hike its guidance for the third time in 2025. Full-year bookings are now seen at $6.57–6.62B (up from $5.87–5.97B guidance) [24], far above the ~$6.16B Street estimate. Management also projects Q4 bookings of $2.00–2.05B (47–51% growth) [25], well above analysts’ prior ~$1.80B target. The company’s CFO noted that these numbers were driven by broad engagement across its platform. Notably, Roblox continues to pay out big to creators – over $1 billion to its game developers in the past 12 months [26] – highlighting a thriving creator economy funded by the surge in player spending.
Viral Games Spark Engagement Boom
A key story was the impact of breakout games. Longtime smash “Grow a Garden” saw its momentum continue from Q2, but new hits stole the show in Q3. JPMorgan research explains that Q3 engagement was “led by Steal a Brainrot and 99 Nights in the Forest” following Grow a Garden’s success [27]. Indeed, Reuters reports “Steal a Brainrot” alone exceeded 25 million concurrent players [28] – a record for Roblox (previous high was ~32M). These games went viral on social media, driving fresh user acquisition and spending.
Roblox’s management credits recent tech upgrades for enabling this growth. CFO Naveen Chopra told Reuters that improved search algorithms, capacity infrastructure and developer incentives allowed “multiple games with more than 20 million concurrent users”, something never achieved before [29]. In practice, the platform easily absorbed 43 million simultaneous players in late August [30]. The result: engagement outside the top 10 games is also rising (up 58% YoY according to the company), showing the hit-driven growth is broad-based. Overall, engagement metrics are “unprecedented”, helping Roblox approach 100 million daily active users and over 400 million monthly users [31]. This massive scale and viral content engine helps explain why top creators can earn millions: for example, a Roblox soccer game (“Blue Lock: Rivals”) generated ~$5M in monthly revenue and sold for $3M, turning its teen developer into a millionaire [32].
Analyst Upgrades & Market Outlook
The street reacted with enthusiasm. RBLX stock, already up ~200% in 2025, climbed to new highs on the news. As of mid-October it traded around $128 [33]. After earnings, Morgan Stanley kicked off coverage with an Overweight rating and a $170 price target (implying ~33% upside) [34] – it even envisions a $300 bull-case if Roblox continues dominating the “metaverse” content space. JPMorgan similarly raised its target to $160 [35], noting record engagement and “healthy upside” to guidance. Jefferies (earlier neutral) lifted its target to $130 [36]. Others joined in: BMO to $160, Piper Sandler to $180, and MoffettNathanson to Neutral after bearish calls [37]. The general tone is bullish: RBLX now carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus (roughly 18 Buys vs 1 Sell) with an average target ~$150–155 [38]. Even conservative bears concede these earnings beat expectations, and Moody’s recently upgraded Roblox’s credit outlook to Positive [39], underscoring confidence in its cash flow and growth.
That said, analysts also flag high valuation risk. Roblox still operates at a loss, so the stock trades on the promise of future growth [40]. Forward revenue multiples are rich, and sustaining 20%+ bookings growth into 2026 will be harder. For example, Jefferies and others note that today’s sky-high expectations leave little room for missteps [41]. Potential headwinds include secular shifts (e.g. Fortnite’s pivot to user‑generated content) – though most experts downplay that, saying it’s *“a bonus” rather than a threat to Roblox [42]. For now the narrative – explosive engagement, new AI tools for creators, and expanding demographics – remains compelling. If Roblox executes on its vision (Baszucki’s goal is to grab 10% of global gaming revenue [43]), the stock could keep running. But any slowdown in user gains or spending might see RBLX volatility return.
Sources: Official filings and management statements [44] [45]; Reuters, Investing.com and tech news reports [46] [47] [48]; analyst research from JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Jefferies and others [49] [50]; and expert commentary [51] [52]. All figures are as reported for Q3 2025.
References
1. ng.investing.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. ng.investing.com, 4. ng.investing.com, 5. ng.investing.com, 6. www.tipranks.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. ng.investing.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. ng.investing.com, 11. ng.investing.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. ts2.tech, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. ts2.tech, 16. ts2.tech, 17. ts2.tech, 18. ng.investing.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. ng.investing.com, 21. ng.investing.com, 22. ng.investing.com, 23. ng.investing.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. ng.investing.com, 26. ts2.tech, 27. www.tipranks.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. ts2.tech, 31. ts2.tech, 32. www.barchart.com, 33. ts2.tech, 34. ts2.tech, 35. www.tipranks.com, 36. ts2.tech, 37. ts2.tech, 38. ts2.tech, 39. ts2.tech, 40. ts2.tech, 41. ts2.tech, 42. ts2.tech, 43. ts2.tech, 44. ng.investing.com, 45. www.reuters.com, 46. www.reuters.com, 47. www.tipranks.com, 48. ts2.tech, 49. www.tipranks.com, 50. ts2.tech, 51. ts2.tech, 52. ts2.tech
