Saturday, November 22, 2025 – Weekly summary for semiconductor investors and traders
A Whipsaw Week for Chip Stocks
Semiconductor investors just sat through one of the most dramatic weeks of 2025.
On the one hand, Nvidia delivered record‑shattering earnings and guidance that reinforced how central AI chips have become to global tech spending. On the other, the sector’s main benchmark – the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) – slid deeper into correction territory as “AI bubble” worries sparked heavy selling across U.S., European and Asian chip names.
As of late Friday, the SOX was trading around 6,400, roughly 13% below its late‑October peak near 7,390, putting it firmly in correction territory (a drop of at least 10% from its recent high). [1] Trading data over the past week show the index down about 3–4%, roughly 5% lower for the month, but still up close to 30% over the past year – a reminder that the sell‑off is coming after a powerful multi‑month AI rally. [2]
Here’s how the key stories in semiconductors unfolded between November 16 and 21, 2025.
1. Sector Overview: SOX Officially in Correction
From AI darlings to downside leader
The turning point came on Tuesday, November 18. On that day, the PHLX Semiconductor Index fell about 2.3%, pushing it more than 10% below its recent closing high and formally into correction territory. [3] Names such as Micron Technology, Advanced Micro Devices and Lam Research posted notable declines, reflecting broad profit‑taking in chip stocks that had led markets for much of the year. [4]
By mid‑week, a widely watched U.S. chip gauge was down roughly 9.4% in November after six straight months of gains, according to Bloomberg, highlighting how rapidly sentiment had swung. [5]
A separate analysis of the SOX showed:
- ~3.4% decline over the past week
- ~5.3% drop over the past month
- ~29% gain over the past year [6]
In other words: the sector is correcting, not collapsing. But the speed of the drawdown has sharpened the debate over whether AI‑linked chip valuations ran too far ahead of fundamentals.
“AI bubble” becomes the phrase of the week
A Eurasia Business News recap of Tuesday’s market action noted that nearly 45% of fund managers now see a potential AI bubble as the top “tail risk” for markets – ahead of the usual macro concerns. [7]
A separate in‑depth analysis from TokenRing AI framed the latest slide in tech and semiconductor stocks as the product of three forces: stretched valuations, uncertainty over further rate cuts, and escalating geopolitical and export‑control risks. It pointed out that names like Lam Research have shed around 10% over the prior week, despite solid fundamentals, as investors re‑price high‑multiple stocks. [8]
Yet large asset managers are not universally bearish. A Bloomberg report citing Fidelity International argued that the recent downturn in semiconductor stocks is likely temporary, as long as AI capital spending and usage continue to scale. [9]
That set the stage for the most anticipated event of the week: Nvidia’s earnings.
2. Nvidia: Blockbuster Results, Volatile Stock
Record quarter and “sold‑out” AI GPUs
On Wednesday, November 19, Nvidia reported fiscal Q3 2026 results that crushed Wall Street expectations:
- Revenue: about $57 billion, up roughly 62% year‑on‑year [10]
- Data center sales: a record $51.2 billion, growing about 66% versus a year earlier and now accounting for roughly 90% of total revenue [11]
- Q4 guidance: around $65 billion in sales, comfortably above analyst estimates [12]
Coverage from The Verge highlighted that Nvidia’s data center business alone grew by $10 billion in a single quarter, with the company saying some of its most advanced AI GPUs are effectively “sold out” as cloud providers race to build capacity. [13]
Reuters reported that CEO Jensen Huang reiterated an eye‑catching $500 billion pipeline of bookings for advanced chips through 2026, while the company’s stock had already rallied about 1,200% over the past three years before this latest report. [14]
Relief rally… then another sell‑off
Initially, the numbers produced the reaction bulls hoped for:
- Nvidia shares jumped about 4–5% in after‑hours trading, setting up a big market‑cap gain and pulling up AI‑linked peers such as AMD, Alphabet and Microsoft. [15]
But the enthusiasm didn’t last. Fortune reported that Nvidia’s stock fell more than 3% in the first full session after earnings and extended losses the following day as investors again questioned how long AI spending can grow at this pace. [16]
An ABC News piece framed the earnings as temporarily “rebuking” AI bubble concerns, only for Nvidia’s share price and major indexes to slide again, underlining just how much broader market sentiment now depends on continued AI infrastructure spending. [17]
In short: Nvidia’s fundamentals look stronger than ever, but its stock has become the lightning rod for the entire AI trade – and that means volatility cuts both ways.
3. TSMC, Taiwan and the Foundry Powerhouses
TSMC: strong numbers, choppy stock
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) spent the week in Nvidia’s shadow but remains central to the long‑term AI story.
- An Investor’s Business Daily report named TSMC its “Stock of the Day,” noting that Nvidia’s results initially pushed TSM shares up about 3.7%, briefly recapturing their 50‑day moving average, before the stock closed down around 1.7% at $277.50 as the broader sector rolled over again. [18]
- TSMC’s own Q3 2025 earnings in October showed revenue of about $33.1 billion, up 41% year‑on‑year, and EPS growth near 40%, easily beating forecasts and prompting a full‑year guidance upgrade. [19]
A Nasdaq/Motley Fool analysis this week underscored how dominant TSMC has become:
- Roughly 70% share of the global advanced foundry market
- Nearly $89 billion in revenue in the first nine months of 2025, up about 36% versus the prior year
- Profit growth around 30% over the same period [20]
Despite a more than 50% share‑price gain over the past year, TSMC’s forward P/E near the high‑20s still leaves it trading at a discount to many of its mega‑cap U.S. customers, partly reflecting geopolitical risk around its Taiwan manufacturing base. [21]
Some analysts are already urging caution: a Seeking Alpha note this week argued it may be “time to take some profits” after such a strong run, pointing to decelerating earnings growth, even as demand remains robust. [22]
Taiwan export orders and AI demand
The macro backdrop in Taiwan remains supportive. Data from the island’s Ministry of Economic Affairs showed October export orders rising 25.1% year‑on‑year to about $69.4 billion, the tenth straight monthly gain. The ministry now expects 2025 export orders to surpass $700 billion, a record, driven heavily by demand for chips and electronics used in AI and high‑performance computing. [23]
Orders from the United States were up more than 30% versus a year earlier, while orders from China also grew, underlining how global AI and tech demand is still pulling strongly on Taiwan’s supply chain despite tariffs and trade friction. [24]
4. Korea’s Memory Giants: Samsung Turns the Pricing Screw
Another big structural story this week came out of South Korea.
On November 16, Samsung Electronics announced plans to add a new memory chip production line (the “P5” plant) at its massive Pyeongtaek complex, as part of a 450 trillion won (≈$311 billion) domestic investment program over the next five years. The new line will serve both traditional and AI servers. [25]
Crucially, Reuters reported that Samsung has already raised prices on some memory chips by as much as 60% versus September as AI‑driven demand tightens supply for DRAM and other key products. [26]
A separate Reuters “Morning Bid” note highlighted how shares of Samsung and SK Hynix rallied earlier in the week on these price‑hike reports, before later succumbing to the global AI sell‑off. [27]
The message for investors: AI is shifting bargaining power back toward memory makers after a brutal down‑cycle, but the sector is still tangled in the same macro and sentiment swings hitting the broader chip universe.
5. Mid‑Cap & Specialty Names: Marvell, AMD, Qualcomm, NXP and Equipment Makers
Marvell: strategic expansion versus stock volatility
Marvell Technology found itself at the intersection of long‑term AI optimism and short‑term selling pressure.
- Reuters reported that Marvell will grow its India workforce by about 15% per year for the next three years, expanding R&D operations in Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Pune to meet surging demand for AI and cloud‑infrastructure chips. The company is also in talks with local assembly‑and‑test firms (OSATs), aligning with India’s $10 billion semiconductor incentive program. [28]
- At the same time, trading data show Marvell’s stock slid roughly 10–11% between November 14 and 20 before recovering about 1% on Friday, reflecting how mid‑cap AI beneficiaries are being hit hard in the correction. [29]
Stock pickers’ favorites: AMD and Qualcomm
A StockStory analysis on November 19 put a spotlight on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Qualcomm as two semiconductor names “worth your attention” even amid volatility: [30]
- AMD has delivered nearly 30% annual revenue growth over the last five years and is expected by Wall Street to accelerate again with AI data‑center products, with consensus calling for roughly 27% revenue growth over the coming 12 months.
- Qualcomm has grown revenue at about 15% annually over five years, maintains a free‑cash‑flow margin near 29%, and boasts a return on capital close to 47%, giving it plenty of firepower to invest and return cash to shareholders.
Both stocks still carry growth‑style valuations – StockStory cited forward P/E multiples in the low‑40s for AMD and mid‑teens for Qualcomm – but the analysis argued that their competitive positions justify close monitoring as the cycle evolves. [31]
One laggard: NXP Semiconductors
The same report singled out NXP Semiconductors as a chip stock to approach cautiously:
- Revenue has declined about 4.4% annually over the last two years, reflecting softer demand across its auto and industrial end markets.
- Free‑cash‑flow margins have compressed by roughly 10 percentage points over five years, signalling heavier investment just to defend its position. [32]
At a forward P/E in the mid‑teens, NXP isn’t expensive in absolute terms, but the piece argued that lagging growth and margin pressure make it less compelling than higher‑growth peers in today’s AI‑obsessed market. [33]
Equipment names feel the downgrade
Chip‑equipment makers, often the first to re‑rate when a cycle turns, also came under pressure. TokenRing AI’s sector review noted that Lam Research fell nearly 3% on November 18 and was down about 10% across the prior week, despite continued strong orders, as investors questioned whether capital‑spending plans from customers like TSMC and Samsung might eventually slow. [34]
6. Asia & Global Markets: SoftBank, Tokyo Selloff and “AI Bubble” Contagion
The tremors in Nvidia and the SOX reverberated worldwide.
- A Morningstar report described Asian semiconductor stocks “tumbling” late in the week on renewed AI bubble fears, tracking heavy U.S. losses. [35]
- Coverage from Invezz noted that SoftBank – often treated as an AI and chip proxy – and a broad swath of Asian chip names fell sharply on November 21 as Nvidia’s post‑earnings sell‑off rippled through global markets. [36]
- In Tokyo, DividendJapan highlighted that Advantest, a key chip‑testing equipment maker, dropped about 12% in a single session on November 21, even though it remains up well over 100% year‑to‑date, illustrating how quickly richly‑valued names can give back gains in a sentiment shock. [37]
Taken together, the week underscored that AI‑chip exuberance – and the subsequent pullback – is a global phenomenon, not just a U.S. story.
7. Policy & Macro Backdrop: Investment Boom vs. Bubble Anxiety
Beyond day‑to‑day price moves, several policy and macro developments this week will matter for semiconductor investors:
- Taiwan export orders: As noted above, Taiwan’s government now expects record‑high export orders above $700 billion in 2025, powered largely by demand for chips and electronics tied to AI and high‑performance computing. [38]
- South Korea’s industrial strategy: Samsung’s new P5 plant and Hyundai’s multi‑year domestic investment pledge came as part of a broader U.S.–South Korea trade deal that includes $350 billion in South Korean investments in U.S. strategic sectors, highlighting how geopolitics and industrial policy are reshaping chip supply chains. [39]
- India’s push into semis: Marvell’s India hiring spree ties into a $10 billion Indian semiconductor incentive program aimed at building out local manufacturing and OSAT capacity over the next decade. [40]
- China’s policy “steamroller”: A widely shared analysis in The Diplomat, flagged in investor forums this week, described China’s semiconductor strategy as an “industrial policy steamroller,” with heavy state support and capacity expansion intended to reduce dependence on foreign technology – a trend that could weigh on long‑term margins while also expanding the total addressable market. [41]
At the same time, surveys cited by Eurasia Business News and others show AI‑related equity froth is now perceived as one of the primary risks to markets, echoing comparisons to the late‑1990s dot‑com boom. [42]
8. Key Takeaways for Semiconductor Investors
This week offered a dense mix of bullish fundamentals and fragile sentiment. A few themes stand out:
- The sector is correcting, not collapsing.
The SOX is down roughly 10–13% from its late‑October high and fell about 3–4% this week, but remains up close to 30% over the last year. That’s painful volatility, yet still consistent with a powerful longer‑term uptrend. [43] - AI fundamentals remain extremely strong.
Nvidia’s record quarter, TSMC’s double‑digit revenue growth, Taiwan’s export surge and Samsung’s new AI‑focused memory line all point to continued structural demand for advanced chips and manufacturing capacity. [44] - Valuation and concentration risk are front‑of‑mind.
With fund‑manager surveys citing an AI bubble as a top risk and some chip leaders trading at rich multiples, even great earnings can trigger selling when expectations are sky‑high. [45] - Winners and laggards are diverging.
Articles this week highlighted AMD and Qualcomm as structurally advantaged growers, while names like NXP and some equipment manufacturers are seeing more skepticism despite respectable businesses. [46] - Policy and geopolitics are now core to the thesis.
From U.S. export controls and tariffs to Taiwan’s export mix, Korea’s domestic investments, India’s subsidies and China’s industrial push, the chip story is increasingly about government strategy as much as it is about tech roadmaps. [47]
Final word
For investors and traders watching semiconductor stocks as of November 22, 2025, this week was a reminder that:
- Earnings power and demand for AI chips are still ramping hard, but
- Market expectations, positioning and macro risks can overpower fundamentals in the short term.
As always, this overview is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Anyone considering exposure to semiconductor stocks should evaluate their own risk tolerance, time horizon and diversification, and consider consulting a qualified financial adviser.
References
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