Super Micro Computer’s stock (NASDAQ: SMCI) is trying to stabilize today, November 14, 2025, after a brutal selloff in AI names and a sharp one‑day drop of more than 7% on Thursday. The move comes against a backdrop of mixed earnings, intense AI demand, and growing anxiety that the AI trade might be overheating.
Below is a full breakdown of SMCI stock news, price action, fundamentals, and analyst sentiment for November 14, 2025, based on the latest available data.
SMCI stock price today: rebound, but still a very rough month
- Intraday price: Super Micro Computer is trading around $36–37 per share in Friday’s session. TradingView shows a current price near $36.43, up about 4.8% over the last 24 hours. [1]
- Yesterday’s close: Multiple sources put Thursday’s close at roughly $35.09, after a steep single‑day drop of about 7.4%. [2]
- Today’s trading range: Investing.com’s daily data indicates that on November 14, SMCI has traded roughly between $33.72 and $37.35, with volume around 27 million shares, and is up about 3.5% versus Thursday’s close. [3]
- Market capitalization & volatility: TradingView pegs Super Micro’s market cap near $21 billion, with the stock up about 102% over the past year but down roughly 32.5% over the last month. [4]
MarketWatch’s real‑time quote earlier in the afternoon showed SMCI around $36.81, up about 4.9% on the day, consistent with a modest rebound from Thursday’s rout. [5]
Bottom line on price:
SMCI is bouncing today, but the stock remains deep in correction territory for November and is still highly volatile intraday.
What happened yesterday: SMCI joins November’s “worst-performing S&P 500 stocks”
On Thursday, November 13, Super Micro Computer was hit hard as part of a broad AI and tech selloff:
- A TechStock² market recap puts SMCI down about 7.4% on Thursday, alongside sharp declines in Nvidia, Palantir, and Broadcom, during one of Wall Street’s ugliest sessions since April. TechStock²
- A Smartkarma “Market Movers” note today highlights that SMCI fell to $35.09, a 7.44% drop on heavy volume of roughly 36.9 million shares, even though the stock is still up about 15% year‑to‑date. [6]
The damage isn’t just a one‑day story:
- A Dow Jones/MarketWatch list of November’s worst‑performing S&P 500 stocks (republished by Moomoo) shows Super Micro down about 32.5% month‑to‑date, even after prior gains, with a recent price line around $35.09 versus a 52‑week high near $66.35 set in February 2025. [7]
Despite the recent slide, SMCI’s 12‑month performance remains strongly positive, up just over 100% year‑on‑year according to TradingView. [8]
Context:
The AI trade that powered much of SMCI’s rally is now cutting both ways. When investors rotate out of high‑beta AI names, SMCI tends to be among the hardest hit.
Options market today: moderate bearishness and very high implied volatility
One of the most important SMCI stories today, November 14, is actually in the options market, not the stock chart.
A fresh analysis from GuruFocus reports: [9]
- Stock move at the time of the note: SMCI was up about $0.45, or 1.28%, trading near $35.54 earlier in the session.
- Options volume: Around 65,000 option contracts changed hands, roughly in line with average activity.
- Put/call ratio: Puts and calls were evenly matched, giving a put/call ratio of 1.0, notably higher than the usual ~0.46 for SMCI.
- Implied volatility: 30‑day implied volatility (IV30) rose to roughly 73.5, below its 52‑week median but still pointing to large expected daily moves of about $1.65 per share.
GuruFocus describes sentiment as “mildly bearish”: traders are not panicking, but they are paying up for downside protection via puts and positioning for continued volatility. [10]
Takeaway:
The options market is signaling that big swings in SMCI are likely to continue, and more traders are hedging against further downside than usual.
Fundamental backdrop: huge AI backlog, but margins and cash flow under pressure
Today’s SMCI story can’t be separated from the company’s recent earnings miss and evolving AI infrastructure strategy.
Q1 FY 2026 results: revenue miss and thinner margins
On November 4, 2025, Supermicro reported fiscal Q1 2026 (quarter ended September 30, 2025): [11]
- Net sales:$5.0 billion, down from $5.9 billion a year earlier and below the roughly $6.0 billion analysts expected.
- GAAP gross margin: about 9.3%, down from 13.1% in the prior‑year quarter.
- GAAP net income: about $168 million, versus $424 million a year earlier.
- Non‑GAAP EPS: about $0.35 per share, missing estimates near $0.40. [12]
- Operating cash flow: approximately –$918 million, reflecting heavy working‑capital needs and build‑out costs. [13]
Management blamed part of the shortfall on delivery timing for very large AI systems:
- CEO Charles Liang said roughly $1.5 billion in revenue shifted from the September quarter into the December quarter because of last‑minute configuration changes and the complexity of new GPU rack systems, which require extensive integration and testing. [14]
Guidance: betting on a big rebound
Despite the messy quarter, Supermicro’s outlook remains aggressive: [15]
- Q2 FY 2026 guidance:
- Net sales between $10.0–$11.0 billion, well above prior consensus near $7.8 billion.
- Full‑year FY 2026 guidance:
- At least $36 billion in revenue, up from earlier guidance of about $33 billion.
- The company highlighted a backlog of more than $13 billion, largely tied to Nvidia’s Blackwell Ultra‑based GB300 systems and other AI infrastructure orders.
InsiderMonkey, in a “11 Best AI Infrastructure Stocks” piece published today, emphasizes that over 75% of Supermicro’s recent revenue comes from AI GPU platforms and that the company sees itself as a leading AI infrastructure provider, not just a server vendor. [16]
Interpretation:
Fundamentally, SMCI is still pointing to explosive top‑line potential driven by AI data centers—but profitability and cash generation have taken a hit, and investors are now demanding proof that this massive backlog can be turned into sustainable margins, not just revenue.
Analyst sentiment: Argus turns bullish, while consensus stays cautious
Today’s SMCI news flow also includes fresh and recent analyst perspectives.
Argus upgrade and price target
InsiderMonkey notes that on November 7, 2025, Argus Research upgraded SMCI from “Hold” to “Buy” and set a $64 price target. [17]
The rationale highlighted:
- SMCI’s revenue is increasingly tied to AI infrastructure, with a $13 billion backlog and large multi‑year deals.
- Shares now trade at less than half their early‑2024 peak (on a split‑adjusted basis), despite the company reaffirming at least $36 billion in FY 2026 revenue. [18]
Wider analyst consensus and long‑term forecasts
A November 13th forecast piece from 24/7 Wall St. aggregates a wider view: [19]
- Around 19 analysts rate SMCI a “Hold”, while 8 rate it “Buy”.
- The median 12‑month price target is roughly $48.82, about 30% above recent prices in the mid‑$30s.
- Their own long‑term model projects a possible share price around $52 by the end of 2025, rising toward the high‑60s in 2026 and into the $80–100+ range by 2027–2029, assuming strong revenue and profit growth.
TradingView’s data echoes the idea of wide uncertainty: analysts’ targets range from $15 to $63 per share. [20]
Takeaway:
The Street is far from unanimous. Some see SMCI as a discounted long‑term AI infrastructure leader; others worry about execution, cyclicality, and margins. The spread between bull and bear price targets is unusually wide.
Valuation & risk metrics on November 14, 2025
The GuruFocus snapshot today gives a detailed look at SMCI’s valuation, balance sheet, and risk indicators: [21]
- Valuation ratios
- P/E ratio: about 28.5, above the stock’s historical median.
- Price‑to‑sales: around 1.1.
- Price‑to‑book: roughly 3.3.
- Growth & profitability
- Three‑year revenue growth rate: about 53%, though recent quarters have slowed.
- Gross margin: roughly 10%, at the low end of its historical range and well below many software‑heavy AI peers.
- Balance sheet & quality
- Current ratio: ~5.4, quick ratio ~3.0 – strong liquidity.
- Debt‑to‑equity: around 0.74, moderate leverage.
- Altman Z‑Score:4.5, suggesting low near‑term bankruptcy risk.
- Beneish M‑Score: around –2.21, not indicative of earnings manipulation.
- Risk and sentiment
- Piotroski F‑Score: only 3 (on a 0–9 scale), flagging some fundamental deterioration.
- RSI: near 25.8, implying the stock is technically oversold.
- Beta: around 1.7–2.5, signaling much higher volatility than the broader market. [22]
- Recent insider activity: about 90,000 shares sold over the last three months. [23]
Put together, SMCI looks like a high‑growth, high‑volatility AI hardware story, trading at a premium to its historical valuation but at a discount to its 2024 peak.
Product & ecosystem news today: Supermicro at the heart of exabyte‑scale AI storage
Beyond stock‑market headlines, there is real product news today that matters for SMCI’s long‑term story.
A new article from Blocks & Files describes how MinIO is launching an “ExaPOD” reference architecture that combines: [24]
- MinIO AIStor object storage software,
- Supermicro servers based on Intel Xeon 6, specifically Supermicro SYS‑212‑TN 2U systems with 24 NVMe SSDs, and
- Solidigm high‑capacity QLC SSDs,
to build exabyte‑scale on‑premises object storage designed to keep AI GPUs fully utilized.
Key points from that architecture:
- A single rack can offer around 36 PiB of usable all‑flash capacity.
- At full scale (32 racks), the system targets 1 exbibyte (over 1 EiB) with an aggregate throughput near 19.2 TB/s. [25]
This kind of deployment highlights why investors still view SMCI as a core supplier of hardware for next‑generation AI data centers. Even while Wall Street debates margins and valuations, Supermicro is literally inside the racks powering exascale AI workloads.
How macro forces are shaping SMCI today
Two recent TechStock² pieces—one reviewing Thursday’s selloff and another covering midday trading today—underscore the macro environment SMCI is trading in: TechStock²+1
- AI leaders like Nvidia and Super Micro have been central to 2025’s rally, making them magnets for selling when investors worry about an “AI bubble.”
- Fed rate‑cut expectations for December have dropped to roughly a coin flip after a long U.S. government shutdown created a “data fog” around inflation and jobs data.
- Equity valuations, especially in tech, are still elevated relative to long‑term averages, making high‑growth names particularly sensitive to any shift in rate expectations.
For SMCI, that means its stock is being buffeted by three overlapping forces:
- Company‑specific execution risk (earnings miss, margin compression, revenue timing).
- Sector sentiment (AI hardware optimism vs bubble fears).
- Macro and rates (higher yields lowering the present value of future growth).
What SMCI investors should watch next
If you follow or hold SMCI, the key near‑term catalysts and risks after today include:
- Execution on Q2 guidance
- Management has promised a massive rebound in Q2 revenue to $10–11 billion. Delivering on that guidance—or failing to—will heavily influence whether the market trusts the long‑term $36 billion fiscal‑year target. [26]
- Nvidia and broader AI demand signals
- Upcoming earnings from Nvidia and other chipmakers will give crucial clues on whether AI data‑center spending is still accelerating or normalizing. SMCI’s fortunes are tightly linked to these GPU cycles. TechStock²+1
- Margin and cash‑flow trends
- Investors will want to see gross margins stabilize and operating cash flow turn positive, proving that SMCI can convert gigantic backlog into sustainable earnings rather than just low‑margin volume. [27]
- Options and short‑interest dynamics
- With implied volatility elevated and options traders leaning more defensive, any positive surprise could trigger a short‑covering rally, while disappointments could be amplified on the downside. [28]
- Further analyst revisions
- After Argus’s upgrade and recent downgrades earlier in the year, watch for whether more firms move SMCI into the “buy the dip” camp—or decide the AI server story has gotten too crowded. [29]
SMCI stock today: the bottom line
For November 14, 2025, the story of SMCI stock looks like this:
- The share price is rebounding modestly after a brutal drop, but the stock is still one of November’s worst‑performing S&P 500 names, down roughly a third this month. [30]
- The options market is pricing in large daily swings and showing more demand for puts than usual, signaling elevated anxiety but also potential for sharp snap‑back rallies. [31]
- Fundamentally, Supermicro sits on a huge AI backlog and double‑digit billion revenue guidance, yet it must convince investors it can restore margins and cash flow after a weaker‑than‑expected quarter. [32]
- Analyst opinion is split: some see long‑term upside from AI infrastructure, while others point to valuation, cyclicality, and execution risks. [33]
For traders and investors, SMCI today is not a quiet, steady compounder; it’s a high‑beta, high‑conviction AI infrastructure bet where sentiment can turn quickly on every new data point—from Fed commentary to Nvidia orders to the next Supermicro earnings call.
Important: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice. It does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation, or risk tolerance. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
References
1. www.tradingview.com, 2. www.smartkarma.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.tradingview.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. www.smartkarma.com, 7. www.moomoo.com, 8. www.tradingview.com, 9. www.gurufocus.com, 10. www.gurufocus.com, 11. ir.supermicro.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. ir.supermicro.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. ir.supermicro.com, 16. www.insidermonkey.com, 17. www.insidermonkey.com, 18. www.insidermonkey.com, 19. 247wallst.com, 20. www.tradingview.com, 21. www.gurufocus.com, 22. www.gurufocus.com, 23. www.gurufocus.com, 24. blocksandfiles.com, 25. blocksandfiles.com, 26. ir.supermicro.com, 27. ir.supermicro.com, 28. www.gurufocus.com, 29. www.insidermonkey.com, 30. www.moomoo.com, 31. www.gurufocus.com, 32. ir.supermicro.com, 33. 247wallst.com
