SMCI Stock Today, November 17, 2025: Why Supermicro Is Sliding Again Despite the AI Boom

On Monday, November 17, 2025, Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) closed at $34.10, down about 6.4% on the day as investors continued to digest an earnings miss, guidance reset, heavy options activity and mixed analyst signals. ^[1]

Below is a detailed, news‑driven look at all the major SMCI stock headlines published today, plus the fundamental context and what markets are watching next.

SMCI stock today: price action and volatility

Closing price: $34.10, down 6.37% on Monday’s session. ^[2]
Intraday range: roughly $33.65–$37.50, with shares fading into the close as broader indexes also sold off. ^[3]
52‑week range: about $17.25–$66.44, meaning SMCI now trades close to the lower half of its one‑year band. ^[4]
Year‑to‑date: despite the recent slide, SMCI is still up around 13–21% for 2025, but sits over 40% below its 52‑week high near $60–66. ^[5]

A TradingView/StockStory recap notes that SMCI has logged 78 single‑day moves greater than 5% in the past year, underscoring just how volatile this AI‑hardware play has become. ^[6]

MarketWatch’s end‑of‑day brief framed Monday’s drop in context: SMCI fell 6.37% to $34.10, yet still “outperformed” many computer‑technology peers in what was a rough session for growth and AI‑linked stocks overall. ^[7]

Today’s SMCI stock news round‑up (November 17, 2025)

1. Bearish options activity and post‑earnings weakness

A widely syndicated StockStory / TradingView piece titled “Super Micro (SMCI) Stock Trades Down, Here Is Why”highlights unusual options activity as a key driver of today’s decline:

Afternoon trading saw SMCI shares down about 5–6% at one point, as data flagged “significant bearish options activity,” with roughly 60% of trades skewing negative.
The article links this to SMCI’s recent quarterly earnings miss, with investors still concerned about falling gross margins and higher costs for new products. ^[8]

It also notes that, even after the pullback, SMCI is up about 13.5% year‑to‑date but trades nearly 44% below its 52‑week high of $60.71, reinforcing the sense of a former high‑flyer still coming back to earth. ^[9]

2. TipRanks: downgrade to Hold and negative insider sentiment

TipRanks published a breaking news note titled “Why Super Micro Computer Shares Are Under Pressure” that digs into fundamentals behind the slide: ^[10]

SMCI’s stock is described as being “under pressure” following a downgrade to Hold, driven by a notable decline in quarterly revenue and net profit versus last year.
The piece flags negative insider sentiment, pointing to an uptick in share selling by corporate insiders, which some investors read as a sign of reduced confidence in near‑term prospects.
At the same time, Argus Research upgraded SMCI to a Buy rating, showing that not all Wall Street voices are turning bearish.
TipRanks summarizes the backdrop with a YTD price gain around 21%, average trading volume near 29 million shares, a “Sell” technical signal, and a market cap around $21–22 billion as of mid‑November. ^[11]

3. GuruFocus: options market turns cautious, RSI near oversold

GuruFocus added another layer with a midday article, “Super Micro (SMCI) Shows Bearish Sentiment Amid Options Activity.” Key takeaways: ^[12]

The options market shows a “moderately bearish” stance, with implied volatility (IV30) around 76 and a put/call ratio of ~0.67, higher than its usual level (about 0.48).
SMCI’s shares were quoted in that piece around $34.50, down nearly $2 on the day at that time.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits just under 30 (≈29.9), which many technicians view as borderline oversold.
On fundamentals, GuruFocus notes:
- Three‑year revenue growth above 50%,
- A recent earnings decline of more than 30%,
- Slim operating and net margins (mid‑single digits),
- Solid liquidity (current ratio above 5, quick ratio around 3), and
- A valuation profile around 27–28x earnings, 1.1x sales and ~3.1x book value.

The article concludes that financial health looks robust, but warns that elevated volatility, high beta and persistent insider selling make the risk profile non‑trivial. ^[13]

4. MarketBeat: Thames Capital buys in, but insiders take profits

On the institutional side, MarketBeat reported that Thames Capital Management LLC has taken a new position in SMCI. ^[14]

Highlights from “Thames Capital Management LLC Buys New Shares in Super Micro Computer, Inc. $SMCI”:

Thames bought 260,350 SMCI shares in Q2, valued around $12.8 million, making it roughly 2.9% of the fund’s portfolio and its 15th‑largest holding.
In aggregate, institutions now own about 84% of SMCI’s float, while insiders hold roughly 16%.
However, insiders sold about 90,000 shares (~$3.9 million) last quarter, consistent with the negative insider sentiment flagged elsewhere.
MarketBeat recaps the latest quarter (fiscal Q1 2026):
- EPS of $0.35 vs. $0.46 expected,
- Revenue of $5.02 billion vs. $6.48 billion consensus,
- Revenue down ~15.5% year‑on‑year, and
- Guidance for Q2 2026 EPS of $0.46–$0.54. ^[15]
Based on its compiled analyst data, MarketBeat now sees SMCI carrying an average rating of “Hold”, with 1 Strong Buy, 8 Buy, 7 Hold and 3 Sell ratings, and a consensus price target around $48.4. ^[16]

5. Benzinga: SMCI added to “oversold stocks to watch”

In an afternoon piece titled “Ready For A Rebound? Here Are 10 Oversold Stocks To Watch,” Benzinga listed Super Micro Computer among the market’s most oversold large‑cap names: ^[17]

SMCI’s 14‑day RSI is quoted at 27.77, below the typical 30 oversold threshold.
The stock is said to be down about 35% over the past month, reflecting the steep post‑earnings correction.
Benzinga frames SMCI as an oversold rebound candidate, but explicitly cautions that RSI alone is not a buy signal and that stocks can stay oversold for extended periods. ^[18]

6. FXEmpire: range‑bound chart, support near $26, resistance near $40

FXEmpire’s technical outlook article, “TSLA, PLTR and SMCI Forecast – Tech Stocks Look Bland in Premarket,”looked at SMCI strictly from a charting standpoint: ^[19]

SMCI is described as “range‑bound” and “choppy” over the past year.
The analysis highlights “massive support” around $26—roughly $8 below today’s close—and suggests that a clean move back above $40 would likely be viewed as decisively bullish.
For now, the stock is characterized as soft but not broken, with traders watching for bounces off lower support zones rather than chasing every dip.

7. Simply Wall St: valuation gap vs. fair value narrative

Simply Wall St published an in‑depth narrative titled “A Fresh Look at Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Valuation Following Earnings Miss and Leadership Shifts.” ^[20]

Key points from that analysis:

Following the recent volatility, SMCI’s share price has dropped more than 30% over the past month, even after delivering around 96% total shareholder return over the past year.
Simply Wall St’s “popular narrative” fair‑value model pegs intrinsic value at about $50.94 per share, implying SMCI is roughly 28–29% undervalued at current levels.
At the same time, its discounted cash‑flow (DCF) model is more cautious, suggesting the stock may actually trade above intrinsic value depending on assumptions—illustrating how sensitive valuation is to AI growth forecasts.
The article attributes the recent earnings miss to supply‑chain pressures, rising competition in AI servers and margin compression, but also notes that management has raised revenue guidance for the coming year, signaling confidence in long‑term demand. ^[21]

8. MarketWatch and other briefings: SMCI falls in a broader selloff

MarketWatch’s data‑news entry “Super Micro Computer Inc. stock outperforms competitors despite losses on the day”summarizes the session this way:

Shares slipped 6.37% to $34.10 on Monday.
The move came during an “all‑around rough trading session” for tech and AI‑linked names, as investors braced for key macro data and upcoming Nvidia earnings. ^[22]

Combined with broader market coverage from the Wall Street Journal and Reuters, SMCI’s drop fits into a wider risk‑off mood around richly valued AI infrastructure plays after a very strong multi‑quarter run. ^[23]

How SMCI got here: earnings miss, forecast cut and AI hardware margins

Today’s headlines sit on top of a series of negative catalysts from late October and early November:

Revenue forecast cut on October 23

On October 23, 2025, Reuters reported that SMCI cut its fiscal Q1 2026 revenue forecast from $6–7 billion down to about $5 billion, blaming “design win upgrades” and shifts in delivery schedules on large AI deals that pushed revenue into the following quarter. ^[24]

The company still reiterated its full‑year FY 2026 revenue goal of at least $33 billion and said it had secured over $12 billion in new business scheduled for later delivery.
At the time, the stock had risen roughly 72% year‑to‑date, underlining how much optimism was already priced in. ^[25]

Q1 FY 2026 results: revenue miss and thin margins

When SMCI reported results in early November, it confirmed the weaker quarter:

Revenue came in around $5.0 billion, significantly below both prior guidance and analyst expectations near $6.5 billion.
EPS was $0.35 vs. $0.46 estimated, and revenue was down about 15–16% vs. the prior year. ^[26]
Gross margin dropped to roughly 9.5%, well below some hardware peers such as Dell and HPE. ^[27]

Coverage from The Register emphasized how complex, mega‑scale GPU rack projects have turned AI infrastructure into a “tricky, low‑margin business — for now”:

A large customer changed configurations late in the process, delaying recognition of around $1.5 billion of revenue.
Management admitted that certain flagship AI rack deals carry lower margins, especially during the ramp‑up phase on new platforms like NVIDIA’s GB300/GB200‑based systems.
Even so, SMCI’s CEO and CFO reiterated long‑term ambitions, pointing to a revenue ramp from $7 billion to $22 billion over the last two years and projecting “at least $36 billion” in revenue for FY 2026, with manufacturing capacity being built for up to $100 billion in annual orders. ^[28]

These results triggered a double‑digit one‑day share price drop earlier this month and set the stage for the ongoing correction that has now pushed SMCI firmly into “oversold” territory on several technical indicators. ^[29]

Long‑term story: AI servers, U.S. government and NVIDIA partnership

Despite the near‑term turbulence, SMCI’s strategic direction still revolves around AI‑optimized servers and data‑center infrastructure, with a growing tilt toward U.S. federal and government work:

On October 29, Reuters reported that SMCI created a new U.S. federal subsidiary aimed at supplying AI server infrastructure to federal agencies, in line with Washington’s push to expand government AI adoption. ^[30]
A day earlier, in an official press release, Supermicro announced an expanded collaboration with NVIDIA, including plans to bring NVIDIA “Vera Rubin” NVL144 and CPX platforms to market in 2026, plus new high‑density GPU systems designed and manufactured in San Jose, California for TAA and Buy‑American compliance. ^[31]

These moves position SMCI as a domestically rooted AI hardware supplier at a time when governments and hyperscalers are projected to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on AI infrastructure, a trend highlighted by Morgan Stanley and other firms. ^[32]

In other words, the long‑term demand story looks strong, even as the near‑term profitability and execution picture remains messy.

SMCI stock forecast and analyst targets as of November 17, 2025

Across Wall Street and data platforms, today’s snapshot of SMCI stock forecasts looks like this:

StockAnalysis.com:
- 16 analysts, overall rating “Buy”.
- Average 12‑month price target: $46.75, implying about 37% upside from today’s close.
- Target range: $34 (low) to $70 (high).
- Consensus forecasts call for FY 2026 revenue around $33.1 billion (up ~50% YoY) and FY 2027 revenue over $41 billion, with EPS expected to climb from $1.68 to $2.60 to $3.30 over two years. ^[33]
MarketBeat (Wall Street survey):
- Rating distribution: 1 Strong Buy, 8 Buy, 7 Hold, 3 Sell, averaging to an overall “Hold”.
- Consensus price target around $48.38, again suggesting sizeable upside vs. the mid‑$30s share price. ^[34]
Public.com analyst consensus:
- 15 analysts, aggregated view of “Hold” as of November 17, 2025.
- Public cites an average target near $49, though it notes that projections are frequently updated and shouldn’t be treated as advice. ^[35]
GuruFocus valuation snapshot:
- Analyst recommendation score around 2.6 (roughly a Hold).
- Target price near $45.35, again above current levels but not dramatically so given the volatility. ^[36]

Broadly, the median Wall Street view seems to be:

SMCI has solid long‑term growth prospects and credible upside from current prices, but execution risks, margin pressure, and governance/internal‑controls concerns justify a more cautious “Hold” bias for many analysts.

Key risks and catalysts to watch after today’s move

Looking beyond the noise of a single session, today’s news flow highlights several ongoing risk factors and upcoming catalysts for SMCI stock:

Execution on mega‑scale AI deals
- Revenue timing is heavily influenced by configuration changes, data‑center readiness and complex logistics on very large orders. Management has warned that quarterly revenue could be “lumpy” as a result. ^[37]
Margin trajectory vs. competitors
- Recent gross margins in the high single digits lag larger hardware vendors, in part due to low‑margin flagship projects and early‑stage ramps on new platforms. Investors will watch closely to see whether mix shifts (e.g., higher‑value “Data Center Building Block” solutions) can lift margins over time. ^[38]
Insider selling vs. institutional buying
- New positions from hedge funds like Thames Capital show institutional confidence, but recent insider sales of ~90,000 shares may keep some investors on edge. ^[39]
Options market positioning and volatility
- With implied volatility in the mid‑70s and a put/call ratio above its norms, SMCI is likely to remain high‑beta and headline‑sensitive, especially around earnings and sector news. ^[40]
AI infrastructure sentiment and Nvidia’s earnings
- Many of today’s market commentaries note that investors are bracing for Nvidia’s upcoming results, which could reset expectations across the AI hardware complex, including SMCI. ^[41]
Government and compliance agenda
- SMCI’s push into U.S. federal markets and its focus on U.S.‑based, TAA‑compliant manufacturing may provide long‑duration contracts and stickier revenue, but also increases regulatory and execution complexity. ^[42]

So what does today’s SMCI sell‑off mean?

Putting it all together, November 17, 2025 looks like another chapter in SMCI’s post‑earnings reset:

Price: The stock slid another 6%+ to the mid‑$30s, deepening a roughly 30–35% one‑month drawdown. ^[43]
Sentiment: Options flow, analyst caution and insider selling have created a decidedly risk‑off mood around the name, even as some research houses (like Argus and parts of the StockAnalysis consensus) still see meaningful upside. ^[44]
Fundamentals: The AI server demand story remains powerful, with huge addressable spending and new channels in government, but SMCI is wrestling with project timing, thin margins and execution complexity in the short run. ^[45]
Valuation: Depending on the model, SMCI screens anywhere from modestly undervalued to slightly overvalued, with most fair‑value estimates clustering well above today’s price but under its previous peaks. ^[46]

For traders and investors, today’s move reinforces a simple takeaway:

SMCI is still a high‑beta AI infrastructure stock where sentiment can swing sharply on each new data point. Near‑term volatility is likely to remain elevated, even if the long‑term growth narrative stays intact.

As always, this article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Anyone considering SMCI stock should evaluate their own risk tolerance, time horizon and financial situation, and, if needed, consult a qualified financial adviser.

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