S&P 500 Today, November 18, 2025: Futures Slide Again Before US Market Open Amid Nvidia and Bitcoin Jitters

The S&P 500 heads into Tuesday’s US trading session under pressure, with futures pointing to another lower open after a sharp sell-off on Monday and a global move away from risk assets.

As of around 2:00 a.m. Eastern time, S&P 500 futures were down roughly 0.8%, indicating a weaker start to the day for US stocks. ^[1] Contracts linked to the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were also in the red, reflecting continued risk aversion across equity markets. ^[2]

Investors are juggling several concerns at once: stretched artificial intelligence (AI) valuations, a steep drop in Bitcoin, upcoming earnings from Nvidia and major US retailers, and a batch of key economic data — some of which has been delayed — that could reshape expectations for Federal Reserve policy. ^[3]

Where the S&P 500 Stands After Monday’s Sell-Off

Monday’s session set the tone for today’s cautious trade:

The S&P 500 fell about 0.9% (around 62 points) to ~6,672, closing at a one‑month low and, crucially, below its 50‑day moving average for the first time in roughly 4–5 months. ^[4]
The Nasdaq Composite dropped about 0.8%, also slipping under its 50‑day moving average, while the Dow Jones lost roughly 1.2%. ^[5]
From its record closing high on October 28, the S&P 500 is now down just over 3%, a modest retreat that nonetheless has technical analysts talking about the possibility of a deeper correction. ^[6]

The primary drivers of Monday’s drop were:

Renewed doubts about AI-driven stock valuations, particularly in mega‑cap tech names. ^[7]
Nervousness ahead of Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday, seen as a major test of the AI trade. ^[8]
Ongoing uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s rate‑cut path and a long‑delayed US jobs report that is now due on Thursday after a weeks‑long government shutdown. ^[9]
A sharp slide in Bitcoin, which dropped below $90,000 for the first time in about seven months, adding to the sense that risk appetite is fading across markets. ^[10]

Technical indicators have turned more cautious. The S&P 500 breaking below its 50‑day moving average after 139 consecutive sessions above it has been highlighted by several strategists as a potential turning point, with some arguing that the index could be vulnerable to a correction of 10% or more if support levels continue to give way. ^[11]

Pre‑Market Picture: Futures, Global Stocks and Bonds

Before the US cash session opens today, the setup looks risk‑off:

S&P 500 futures are down about 0.8%, trading near 6,637 in early pre‑market trade. ^[12]
Nasdaq 100 futures are underperforming, falling more than 1% pre‑market, reflecting concentrated pressure in large‑cap tech and AI‑linked names. ^[13]
A global equity gauge is hovering near one‑month lows, as Asian markets sold off (the Nikkei 225 dropped over 3%) and European futures also point lower. ^[14]

On the rates side, investors are shifting into safer assets:

The 10‑year US Treasury yield has slipped to around 4.1%, with bonds catching a bid as traders pare back equity risk and reassess the Fed outlook. ^[15]

This combination — falling equity futures, weaker global markets, and slightly lower yields — suggests a classic de‑risking move ahead of a heavy week for data and earnings.

AI and Nvidia: The Epicenter of Market Jitters

The AI trade is at the center of today’s S&P 500 story.

Nvidia, now the world’s most valuable company and the flagship of the AI boom, will report earnings Wednesday after the closing bell. ^[16]

Wall Street expects around $55 billion in quarterly revenue and earnings of roughly $1.25 per share, which would mark another strong quarter if delivered. ^[17]
Analysts note that, at this stage, guidance and commentary on future AI demand may matter more than the headline numbers, given how aggressively the stock — and the broader AI complex — has rerated. ^[18]

Market commentary increasingly frames Nvidia’s report as a macro event, not just a single-stock story. A miss — or even a beat paired with cautious guidance — could further cool enthusiasm for AI‑related capex and high‑multiple growth stocks, with direct implications for the S&P 500, where AI‑heavy names dominate index weightings. ^[19]

At the same time, prominent voices like Michael Burry have raised concerns that AI leaders may be overstating earnings by depreciating high‑turnover AI hardware over longer schedules, potentially inflating profits in coming years. ^[20] These criticisms feed into the broader narrative that AI valuations could be vulnerable if earnings or accounting assumptions disappoint.

Bitcoin’s Slide and the Risk‑Off Mood

Another key ingredient in today’s backdrop is the crypto sell‑off.

Bitcoin has slipped below $90,000, a seven‑month low, in tandem with the equity sell‑off. ^[21]
Strategists increasingly describe Bitcoin as a “high‑beta risk proxy”: when investors are comfortable, it tends to surge; when they de‑risk, it often falls faster than stocks. ^[22]

This parallel decline in crypto and equities reinforces a tight link between speculative trades and broader risk appetite, helping explain why yesterday’s rout swept across tech, crypto, and even traditionally defensive assets like gold in some regions. ^[23]

For the S&P 500, the crypto slump matters less for fundamentals and more for sentiment: it signals that the “everything rally” in risk assets is undergoing a stress test.

Today’s US Economic Calendar: Focus on Prices and Production

Beyond earnings and market technicals, Tuesday’s economic data could influence how far the S&P 500 moves at and after the open.

Key events scheduled for November 18, 2025 (all times approximate, Eastern):

8:30 a.m. – US Import and Export Price Indexes
These reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics help gauge inflation pressures from global trade, especially in energy, food, and manufactured goods. ^[24]
9:15 a.m. – Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (G.17)
This Fed report tracks output from US factories, mines, and utilities, as well as how intensively capacity is being used. However, the Federal Reserve has warned that today’s G.17 release is delayed, adding to the sense of data uncertainty that already surrounds this week. ^[25]
Factory orders, shipments and inventories, housing market data, and other indicators are also on the radar, rounding out a busy data slate that can move interest-rate expectations and, by extension, equity valuations. ^[26]

Crucially, investors are also looking beyond today to Thursday’s long‑delayed US jobs report, which was pushed back by the recent 43‑day government shutdown. Markets see this report as a major catalyst for Fed policy expectations into year‑end. ^[27]

Earnings From Retail Giants: A Read on the US Consumer

While Nvidia grabs the headlines, large US retailers — many of them S&P 500 components — could quietly shape the index’s direction this week:

Home Depot reports earnings today before the open. ^[28]
Target, TJX Companies and Lowe’s are due mid‑week. ^[29]
Walmart follows on Thursday, with investors watching closely for signs of consumer resilience or weakness in the wake of the shutdown and higher borrowing costs. ^[30]

These reports will help answer two critical questions for the S&P 500:

Is the US consumer still spending?
Strong or stable demand would support earnings in consumer‑facing sectors, even as tech and AI valuations come under scrutiny.
Are margins holding up?
Guidance on wage costs, inventory, and pricing power will feed directly into index‑level earnings forecasts.

Valuations and Wall Street’s Medium‑Term View on the S&P 500

Even after the recent pullback, the S&P 500 remains expensive by historical standards:

Bloomberg data suggest the index is trading near 22 times forward earnings, above its 10‑year average of around 19. ^[31]

This gap underpins worries that any disappointment on earnings or economic growth could spark a larger correction. Yet, not all strategists are pessimistic.

Morgan Stanley has just raised its year‑end 2026 target for the S&P 500 to 7,800, implying roughly 15–16% upside from current levels. ^[32] The bank’s outlook rests on:

Robust earnings growth over the next few years.
Efficiency gains from AI adoption across sectors.
A broadly supportive policy backdrop, including easier financial conditions over time.

In other words, the medium‑term narrative is still constructive, even as the short‑term tape looks fragile.

What S&P 500 Traders Should Watch at Today’s Open

Here are the key signposts to monitor as the US market opens on November 18, 2025:

1. Direction and Breadth at the Opening Bell

Does the S&P 500 gap lower in line with futures, or do dip buyers immediately step in?
Watch market breadth – the ratio of advancing to declining stocks. A narrow bounce led only by a handful of mega‑caps would be less convincing than broad participation.

2. Tech and AI Leadership

How do Nvidia, other chipmakers, and the mega‑cap “AI complex” trade in the first hour? Persistent weakness there would reinforce the idea that AI exuberance is deflating, at least for now. ^[33]
Keep an eye on index-heavy names in software, cloud, and internet platforms that have been flagged as richly valued.

3. Crypto as a Risk Barometer

If Bitcoin and major altcoins continue to slide, it may signal that investors are still cutting exposure to high‑beta trades, which tends to weigh on the Nasdaq and, by extension, the S&P 500. ^[34]

4. Economic Data Headlines

Any surprise in import or export prices could move inflation expectations and Treasury yields, feeding directly into growth‑stock valuations. ^[35]
Traders will also watch for updates on the delayed industrial production release and the status of the jobs reportlater in the week. ^[36]

5. Retail Earnings and Guidance

Home Depot’s numbers and commentary before the bell will give an early read on housing‑related and discretionary spending. ^[37]
Any outlook cuts or cautious tone from retailers could pressure consumer‑related segments of the S&P 500.

Bottom Line: A Tense Morning for a Still‑Expensive Market

Heading into the US open on Tuesday, November 18, 2025, the S&P 500 faces a delicate balancing act:

Short‑term:
- Futures and global markets are signaling more downside.
- AI and crypto jitters, data delays, and looming jobs numbers are fueling a risk‑off mood.
- Technicals have weakened, with the index losing an important moving‑average support.
Medium‑term:
- Major houses like Morgan Stanley still see double‑digit upside over the next year‑plus, betting that AI‑led productivity and solid earnings growth will justify today’s valuations. ^[38]

For traders and investors, the message this morning is less about panic and more about fragility: the S&P 500 remains near elevated levels by historical standards, and markets have become highly sensitive to any sign that the AI boom, consumer spending, or economic data might fall short of expectations.

As always, this overview is for information only and not investment advice. Position sizing, diversification, and risk management remain crucial in a market that can swing quickly on a single headline — and Nvidia’s earnings and the upcoming jobs report are exactly the kind of catalysts that can move the S&P 500 in a hurry.

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