SSE PLC (LON:SSE) Stock on 4 December 2025: Ofgem Grid Ruling, Ex‑Dividend Drop and the £33bn Growth Plan

SSE PLC is back in the spotlight today – not because of a profit warning or a surprise deal, but because of the mundane but powerful forces that drive utility stocks: regulation, dividends and very large cheques for grid upgrades.

On Thursday 4 December 2025, SSE shares traded around 2,175–2,180p, down a little over 2% in early London trade. The weakness reflects a double hit: the stock has gone ex‑dividend and the UK regulator Ofgem has confirmed a big investment package for gas and power networks that will eventually push up consumer bills, prompting investors to reassess returns. ^[1]

At the same time, SSE is midway through a transformation from “just” a utility into a regulated‑infrastructure growth machine, backed by a £33 billion investment plan that stretches into the next decade. ^[2]

Here’s a deep dive into what’s happening with SSE stock today, what the latest news means, and how analysts are currently valuing the shares.

1. SSE share price today: ex‑dividend dip meets Ofgem tension

Price action

Share price: ~2,175–2,180p on 4 December 2025
Move on the day: down about 2% in morning trade
Index context: the FTSE 100 slipped even as continental European markets edged higher, with SSE and National Grid among the main drags. ^[3]

Why the drop? Two main reasons:

Ex‑dividend date
- 4 December is the ex‑dividend date for SSE’s 2025/26 interim dividend of 21.4p per share.
- Investors who buy after today do not receive this payout on 30 January 2026.
- All else equal, a stock going ex‑dividend typically falls by roughly the dividend amount – that’s just how the maths works. TechStock²+1
Ofgem’s £28bn network ruling
- Ofgem has published its final determination for the RIIO‑T3 price control for electricity transmission, which covers the period from April 2026.
- In parallel, the regulator has signed off an initial £28 billion of investment across UK gas and electricity networks to 2031 – more than earlier proposals – but at the cost of higher network charges on consumer bills, up about £108 a year by 2031 before savings. ^[4]
- SSE’s transmission arm, SSEN Transmission, is a major beneficiary of this investment, but returns will be tightly policed.

SSE’s official response

SSE’s statement today is cautiously upbeat but clearly still in “fine‑print reading” mode: ^[5]

It “welcomes improvements” in baseline allowed expenditure and notes tweaks to financial parameters and incentives.
It also says a “detailed assessment is required to determine the overall investability of the package”, and SSEN Transmission will review the full RIIO‑T3 settlement, including licence changes, over the coming weeks.
CEO Martin Pibworth calls this price control a “once‑in‑a‑generation opportunity to upgrade the grid”, while stressing the goal of lower, more stable bills in the long term.

In other words: management likes the direction of travel, but the spreadsheet verdict – and implications for returns on that £33bn capex plan – will take time.

2. Where SSE is coming from: earnings, balance sheet and strategy

Full‑year 2024/25: big spend, in‑line earnings

In May 2025, SSE reported results for the year to March 2025: ^[6]

Adjusted operating profit:£2.42bn
Adjusted EPS:160.9p, in line with guidance
Capital investment: record £2.9bn, roughly £8m a day, predominantly in electricity networks and renewables
Profit mix: Networks and Renewables contributed about 87% of adjusted operating profit, up from 63% the previous year – a big shift towards regulated and contracted earnings.

Operationally, SSE also ticked off several chunky infrastructure milestones:

Shetland HVDC link fully energised and the 443MW Viking wind farm completed – together representing over £1bn of investment.
Construction started on Eastern Green Link 2 (EGL2), a 500km subsea HVDC link between Peterhead (Scotland) and Drax (England). ^[7]

Those are not vanity projects; they’re part of the plumbing needed for a heavily electrified, renewables‑heavy UK power system.

Half‑year 2025/26: slightly softer, but on‑plan

On 12 November 2025, SSE published half‑year results (to 30 September 2025) alongside a major strategic update. Key numbers: ^[8]

Adjusted operating profit:£655m, lower than the prior year, but broadly in line with seasonal norms.
Adjusted EPS:36.1p, modestly ahead of consensus on a like‑for‑like basis.
Capital investment in H1:£1.6bn, about 70% of it in regulated Networks.
Net debt + hybrids:£11.4bn at the half‑year mark.

Business‑segment trends:

Transmission profits almost doubled year‑on‑year as big projects ramped up.
Distribution profits fell, partly due to non‑recurring inflation adjustments.
Renewables earnings dropped as hedge prices fell around 20% despite higher capacity – a reminder that wind and power prices still matter.
Thermal/Flexibility also saw a dip due to lower volumes and prior‑year one‑offs.

Despite that noise, SSE reconfirmed guidance:

2026/27 adjusted EPS:175–200p
2029/30 adjusted EPS target:225–250p, implying 7–9% compound annual growth from the FY24/25 baseline. ^[9]

3. The £33bn “Transformation for Growth” plan – what it actually means

The star of SSE’s November update is the £33 billion fully‑funded capital investment plan running through to 2029/30. This isn’t marketing fluff; the breakdown is quite specific: ^[10]

Allocation of the £33bn (approximate):

~£22bn (67%) – SSEN Transmission
- Delivers the RIIO‑T3 programme and the UK’s “Pathway to 2030” upgrades to move more Scottish wind southwards.
- Expected to lift gross transmission Regulated Asset Value (RAV) to around £30bn by 2029/30 (roughly 30% CAGR).
~£5bn (15%) – SSEN Distribution
- Funds remaining RIIO‑ED2 investment and prepares for ED3, potentially pushing distribution RAV to £9–10bn by 2029/30.
~£4bn (12%) – SSE Renewables
- Focused on delivering major projects like Dogger Bank, Seagreen, Viking and building towards ~9GW of installed capacity by 2029/30.
~£2bn (6%) – SSE Thermal & other
- Mainly flexible, lower‑carbon generation (including hydrogen‑ready gas plants and peaking assets).

If the plan is executed roughly as advertised, SSE expects: ^[11]

Network RAV to more than treble to around £40bn by 2029/30.
Adjusted EPS to rise by about 50%, to 225–250p.
~80% of EBITDA to be index‑linked (via regulated networks and long‑term contracts), boosting earnings visibility.

Funding the plan

The “fully‑funded” claim rests on a mix of: ^[12]

~£21bn from operating cash flow over the period.
~£14bn from additional net debt and hybrid capital, with a target of keeping net debt / EBITDA below 4.5x.
~£2bn equity placing (launched in November) – roughly 5–10% of issued share capital.
~£2bn of asset rotations (select disposals from non‑core assets).

Credit agencies seem comfortable for now. S&P Global recently affirmed SSE’s BBB+ / A‑2 rating with a stable outlook, explicitly factoring in the larger capex plan and the funding mix of equity and hybrids. ^[13]

4. Dividends: still growing, but the yield has slimmed

SSE has long been a favourite of UK income investors, and management is keen not to break that relationship – only to redefine it.

Dividend policy

Target: grow dividend per share by 5–10% a year to 2029/30, using a baseline of 64.2p in 2024/25. ^[14]
2025/26 interim dividend:21.4p per share, ex‑dividend on 4 December 2025, payable on 30 January 2026. TechStock²+1

At a share price around 2,175–2,200p, that equates to a forward dividend yield just under 3%, depending on the eventual final dividend. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2

That’s where the debate starts:

Bullish take: a near‑3% yield plus credible high‑single‑digit EPS and dividend growth is attractive, especially with much of the earnings anchored in regulated infrastructure. ^[15]
Cautious take (UBS, Citi and others): SSE’s cash yield is now below that of peers – National Grid is closer to 3.2%, and some European utilities sit nearer 4.5% – so income‑hunters may feel underpaid for the added execution and regulatory risk. ^[16]

This is no longer the stereotypical “bond‑proxy” UK utility. It’s closer to an infrastructure‑growth story that happens to pay a decent, but not high, dividend.

5. What analysts are saying: ratings, targets and valuation

Consensus targets and recommendations

Across major platforms, the message is surprisingly consistent:

MarketBeat:
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy” (roughly 6 Buy, 1 Sell).
- Average 12‑month target: about 2,311p (range 1,997–2,500p).
- Implied upside: ~6% from a reference price around 2,175p. ^[17]
TipRanks:
- Around 10 analysts, skewed towards Buy.
- Average target: roughly 2,389p, with a similar 1,997–2,600p range.
- Implied upside: high single digits from recent prices. TechStock²+1
TradingView / other aggregators:
- Average target often quoted around 2,430–2,450p, again with a 1,997–2,600p corridor, and an overall Buy/Strong Buy tilt over the last three months. ^[18]

So, the consensus is:

Quality utility + energy‑transition play
Modest expected upside (mostly 5–10% over 12 months)
Not the deep value bargain it was after early‑2025 lows

Recent broker moves

Recently, several big‑name brokers have refreshed their views: ^[19]

Morgan Stanley, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, RBC, JPMorgan – generally positive, with targets clustered around 2,350–2,500p, highlighting:
- Greater visibility on RAV growth.
- A more network‑weighted earnings mix.
- Long‑term EPS and dividend growth within management’s targets.
Citi (14 Nov 2025):
- Downgraded SSE to “Sell” despite raising its target to 1,997p, arguing the shares had re‑rated by roughly 40% in two months and were no longer cheap.
UBS (27 Nov 2025):
- Cut from “Buy” to “Neutral”, lifting its target from 2,200p to 2,350p (about 7% upside at the time).
- Still models 2030 EPS ~233p, inside SSE’s own 225–250p range, but thinks higher leverage, a thinner yield and execution risk make the shares “no longer cheap versus the sector.”

The street, in short, is constructive rather than euphoric: most see upside, but the “easy money” post‑sell‑off phase is probably gone.

Valuation snapshot

Using management’s 2024/25 adjusted EPS of 160.9p and a share price around 2,180p, SSE trades on roughly 13–14x adjusted earnings, comfortably in the mid‑teens band cited by several data providers. ^[20]

Add in:

Price‑to‑book: around 1.6x.
Dividend yield: just under 3%. TechStock²

That puts SSE at a premium to many traditional utilities, but arguably in line with regulated infrastructure names that can grow earnings and their asset base at high single‑digit rates.

6. Strategic projects and the net‑zero angle

SSE isn’t just upgrading wires; it’s also entwined with some of Europe’s flagship renewables and flexibility projects.

Highlights from recent months: ^[21]

Dogger Bank offshore wind
- In late November, SSE and partners completed all 277 monopiles and transition pieces, wrapping up the foundation installation phase at what is set to be the world’s largest offshore wind farm.
- This paves the way for full turbine installation and commissioning across phases A, B and C.
Banniskirk Hub (Caithness)
- Planning consent secured for a new 400kV substation and HVDC converter station, a key node in the Pathway to 2030 transmission upgrades moving northern Scottish wind south.
- The project has attracted local debate, illustrating the social and political friction inherent in rapid grid build‑out.
Hydrogen‑ready generation – “Mission H2 Power”
- SSE, Siemens Energy and Equinor have broken ground on an expanded hydrogen turbine test facility in Berlin, aimed at gas turbines capable of running on 100% hydrogen while retaining the option to burn gas blends.
- This links directly to decarbonising SSE’s Keadby 2 station and proposed next‑generation plants at Keadby and Ferrybridge.

These sit within SSE’s Net Zero Transition Plan, which targets by 2030: TechStock²+2TechStock²+2

72.5% reduction in absolute Scope 1 & 2 emissions (vs 2017/18).
Net‑zero Scope 1 & 2 emissions by 2040.
80% cut in carbon intensity of generation to 61 gCO₂e/kWh.
Renewables capacity growing from roughly 5GW to 7GW by 2027, backed by a 20GW+ pipeline.

From a stock‑story angle, this all supports the idea that “SSE is morphing into a regulated grid + mega‑renewables platform” rather than a traditional generator‑retailer utility.

7. Ownership changes: JPMorgan’s ~5% stake

Institutional investors have been quietly adjusting their positions as the story has evolved.

On 1 December 2025, JPMorgan Chase & Co filed a TR‑1 major holdings notice, disclosing a total position of roughly 5.1% of SSE voting rights, combining direct shareholdings and derivatives. ^[22]

Large positions like this don’t automatically imply future action, but they underline that big international capital is very interested in regulated UK electricity infrastructure – especially one wrapped around a net‑zero build‑out.

8. Key risks the market is focused on

Despite supportive politics and a buoyant share price, investors are not short of things to worry about. The main risk buckets that appear repeatedly in broker and media commentary are: London South East+3TechStock²+3TechStock²+3

Regulatory and policy risk
- RIIO‑T3 (transmission) and future distribution controls will determine how profitable the £33bn plan really is.
- Small tweaks in allowed real returns (for example, a few tenths of a percent on CPIH‑linked returns) can meaningfully move valuation.
- Ofgem is under intense political pressure to keep bills affordable – the Guardian and others have already highlighted the extra £108 a year by 2031 on network charges.
Execution risk on huge capex
- Delivering £33bn of projects on time and budget is non‑trivial: local opposition, planning delays, supply‑chain bottlenecks and contractor risk can all shift schedules and costs.
- The Banniskirk Hub saga is a miniature of the wider challenge: everyone wants clean power, fewer people want the pylons near their house.
Balance‑sheet and funding risk
- Net debt and hybrid capital are already above £11bn and set to rise.
- The plan assumes reasonably benign credit markets and an ability to issue more equity or hybrids if needed; a spike in interest rates or a risk‑off episode would make that more painful.
Valuation risk after a big rally
- The stock has rallied around 35–50% from early‑2025 lows and trades close to many target prices, with average forecast upside now in the mid‑single digits, plus a sub‑3% yield.
- If RIIO‑T3 turns out to be less generous than hoped, or if major projects slip, there is not a huge valuation cushion.
Weather and commodity risk
- Networks increasingly dominate SSE’s profit pool, but renewables and flexible generation still matter.
- The latest half‑year showed how weaker wind conditions and lower hedge prices can knock earnings around, even as capacity grows.

9. What to watch after 4 December 2025

For investors tracking SSE from here, a few near‑term catalysts stand out: London South East+3TechStock²+3sse.com+3

Ofgem RIIO‑T3 fine print
- The headlines are out, but it will take weeks for SSEN Transmission and analysts to digest detailed licence conditions, incentives and allowed returns.
- SSE has signalled it will engage “constructively” with Ofgem; any hint of re‑opening or tweaks will be closely watched.
30 January 2026 – Interim dividend payment
- Cash hits investors’ accounts; management commentary around that date may update on funding, rating‑agency dialogue or project progress.
Early February 2026 – Q3 trading statement
- Likely updates on Dogger Bank installation, early spending under the new capex plan, and any fresh regulatory or policy developments.
Further broker moves and index flows
- After such a strong run, any big upgrade/downgrade or index reshuffle can swing sentiment.

10. Bottom line: how the market sees SSE stock on 4 December 2025

Put all of this together, and the December 2025 SSE story looks roughly like this: sse.com+3TechStock²+3TechStock²+3

A network‑heavy FTSE 100 utility increasingly driven by regulated electricity infrastructure rather than merchant generation.
Backed by a £33bn, fully‑funded investment plan that, if delivered, should materially expand its regulated asset base and earnings by 2030.
Supported by strong policy and political tailwinds around grid expansion and decarbonisation, plus a recently affirmed BBB+ / stable credit rating.
Share price near record highs, with the stock trading above key moving averages and now firmly back in market favour.
Rated “Moderate Buy” by most covering brokers, but with average upside now in single‑digit percentages and a modest sub‑3% dividend yield – suggesting much of the good news is already priced in.

For investors, the question isn’t whether SSE is central to the UK’s energy transition – that part is increasingly clear. The real debate is whether today’s valuation properly compensates for the regulatory, execution and funding risks baked into such an ambitious capital programme.