Stagwell (STGW) Soars After Q3 Beat and Palantir AI Partnership; 2025 Outlook Calls for ~8% Net Revenue Growth (Nov. 6, 2025)

Stagwell (STGW) Soars After Q3 Beat and Palantir AI Partnership; 2025 Outlook Calls for ~8% Net Revenue Growth (Nov. 6, 2025)

  • Q3 headline results: Revenue $743M (+4% YoY); GAAP EPS $0.09; Adjusted EPS $0.24; Adjusted EBITDA $115M. PR Newswire
  • 2025 guidance (reaffirmed): Net revenue growth ~8%, Adjusted EBITDA $410M–$460M, Adjusted EPS $0.75–$0.88, FCF conversion >45%. PR Newswire
  • New AI alliance:Stagwell x Palantir to build an AI-driven marketing and data platform; early MVP already in client use via Stagwell’s media arm, Assembly. PR Newswire
  • Stock reaction: STGW ripped higher after the open; shares were ~39% higher near $6.70 by mid‑morning U.S. Eastern time. MarketScreener

What’s new today

Earnings: Stagwell Inc. (NASDAQ: STGW) reported third‑quarter revenue of $743 million, GAAP EPS of $0.09, and adjusted EPS of $0.24. Management highlighted double‑digit “ex‑advocacy” momentum, with net revenue ex‑advocacy up 10% to $578 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $115 million (19% margin on net revenue). The company also pointed to $122 million in net new business for the quarter and a $100 million year‑to‑date improvement in operating cash flow versus last year. PR Newswire

Independent wire coverage from the Associated Press echoed the headline figures and noted the full‑year adjusted EPS range of $0.75–$0.88. Times Union

Street scorecard: Zacks said Stagwell topped consensus on both EPS ($0.24 vs. $0.23) and revenue ($743M vs. $734M), framing the quarter as a modest beat. Finviz

AI partnership: Before the bell, Stagwell and Palantir (PLTR) unveiled a partnership to create an AI‑driven, privacy‑aware marketing platform that stitches together Palantir Foundry, Code and Theory’s orchestration software, and The Marketing Cloud data. Stagwell said early client adoption is underway via Assembly, with a broader rollout to follow; CEO Mark Penn said the opportunity could be “potentially hundreds of millions of dollars” in revenue over time. PR Newswire

As of 14:43 UTC (9:43 a.m. ET), STGW traded around $6.31 after opening sharply higher; the intraday range had already stretched from roughly $5.00 to $8.86 in early trading.
Real‑time market dashboards also showed shares up ~39% near $6.70 by mid‑morning, reflecting both the earnings print and the Palantir deal headlines. MarketScreener


Guidance and operating color

Stagwell reiterated 2025 guidance for ~8% net revenue growth, Adjusted EBITDA of $410M–$460M, Adjusted EPS of $0.75–$0.88, and free‑cash‑flow conversion above 45%. Management emphasized cost discipline (labor efficiency), non‑advocacy growth, and an improving cash‑flow profile as support for the outlook into year‑end. PR Newswire


Why it matters

  • AI arms race in advertising: The Palantir tie‑up gives Stagwell a differentiated, data‑to‑activation stack at a time when holding companies are racing to productize AI. Early MVP usage via Assembly suggests near‑term commercialization paths rather than a purely aspirational roadmap. PR Newswire
  • Execution against targets: With Q3 adjusted EPS and revenue ahead of consensus and ex‑advocacy growth running double‑digits, Stagwell is signaling continued progress on its “technology‑led challenger” thesis while pacing to its 2025 targets. Finviz

By the numbers (Q3 2025)

  • Revenue:$743M (+4% YoY)
  • Net revenue ex‑advocacy:$578M (+10% YoY)
  • Adjusted EBITDA:$115M (19% margin on net revenue)
  • GAAP EPS / Adjusted EPS:$0.09 / $0.24
  • Net new business:$122M (LTM $472M)
  • Operating cash flow (YTD):$31M (up $100M YoY)
  • 2025 guide:~8% net revenue growth; Adj. EBITDA $410M–$460M; Adj. EPS $0.75–$0.88; FCF conversion >45%. PR Newswire

What’s next

Stagwell’s Q3 2025 earnings webcast was scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET today, with a replay to be posted on the company’s investor site. Look for management commentary on early customer use‑cases for the Palantir platform and the puts and takes in advocacy vs. non‑advocacy as the company heads into Q4. PR Newswire


Sources & further reading

  • Stagwell Q3 2025 press release (full financials, guidance, webcast details). PR Newswire
  • AP earnings snapshot (headline results, guidance range). Times Union
  • Zacks/Finviz (consensus context: EPS and revenue beat). Finviz
  • Stagwell–Palantir partnership announcement (platform architecture, deployment plan, management quotes). PR Newswire
  • Live market snapshot (shares +~39% mid‑morning). MarketScreener

Stock Market Today

  • Sugar slips as dollar strengthens; India output up, Brazil outlook bearish.
    January 12, 2026, 5:55 AM EST. March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) fell 0.33% and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) slid 0.28% as the dollar strength index rose to a four-week high, pressuring most commodities. Losses in sugar were tempered by anticipated demand from sugar futures rebalancing; Citi projects about $1.2 billion of inflows into the BCOM and S&P GSCI indexes over the next week. In Brazil, Safras & Mercado sees 2026/27 production at 41.8 MMT, down 3.9% y/y, with exports down about 11% to 30 MMT. In India, ISMA reported 2025/26 Oct-Dec output up 25% y/y to 11.90 MMT and lifted the full-year view to 31 MMT, aided by lower ethanol use. The government may permit more exports; ISO still sees a 1.6 MMT surplus in 2025/26.
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