On Tuesday, November 25, 2025, Strategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR) — the company formerly known as MicroStrategy — is trading sharply lower again as investors digest a wave of new headlines: fresh worries about index exclusion, a compressed “Bitcoin premium,” record activity in Bitcoin‑backed credit products, and mixed commentary from Wall Street and TV pundits.
Strategy Inc stock price today: deep drawdown continues
As of late‑morning U.S. trading, Strategy shares are changing hands around $172–173, down roughly 3–4% on the day and extending a severe multi‑month sell‑off. Finviz data shows: [1]
- Intraday price: about $172.7, down ~3.5% from the prior close near $179
- 52‑week range:$166.01 – $457.22
- Performance:
- Down ~40% year‑to‑date (Perf YTD −40.38%)
- Down ~56% over the past 12 months (Perf Year −56.53%)
- Market cap: ~$50–51 billion
- Beta: ~3.5 (extremely volatile)
- Short interest: about 9–10% of the float (≈25 million shares short)
The stock has now fallen roughly 65–70% from its 2025 peak above $540, leaving many holders with steep unrealized losses and putting intense focus on today’s news cycle. [2]
Big story #1: MSCI index risk and rumors JPMorgan is short Strategy
The most politically charged headline today comes from CoinCentral, which reports that JPMorgan has warned Strategy may be removed from the MSCI USA Index by January 15 because Bitcoin now accounts for more than 50% of the company’s total assets. [3]
Key points from that report and related coverage:
- MSCI consultation: MSCI launched a consultation in October on whether companies with large digital‑asset treasuries should remain in traditional equity indices. Strategy, which holds more than 649,000 BTC, is a prime case study. [4]
- Potential outflows: JPMorgan estimates that an MSCI USA removal alone could force about $2.8 billion in passive selling, rising to $8.8 billion if other index providers follow. [5]
- Market context: the warning comes after Bitcoin dropped over 30% from its all‑time high, and Strategy’s stock is down about 69% from its $543 peak, intensifying anxiety around further forced selling. [6]
CoinCentral also reports a sharp backlash from the crypto community, including: [7]
- Accusations that JPMorgan is using the MSCI story to pressure MSTR’s price
- Claims (not proven) that the bank may be short Strategy stock
- Social‑media calls for customers to boycott JPMorgan, with high‑profile crypto figures saying they have closed accounts
- Speculation that a 40–50% rebound in MSTR could trigger a painful short squeeze for any large bearish positions
Strategy’s executive chairman Michael Saylor is quoted pushing back, arguing that Strategy is “an operating business with an active financial strategy,” not just a passive Bitcoin holder, and suggesting that index‑related concerns are already embedded in the share price. [8]
Big story #2: S&P 500 snub – SanDisk in, Strategy out (again)
While MSCI is debating whether to kick Strategy out, the S&P 500 has once again declined to let it in.
A detailed report from BeInCrypto notes that SanDisk Corp. will join the S&P 500 on November 28, 2024, replacing Interpublic Group — and Strategy has been passed over again despite its large market cap and high liquidity. [9]
BeInCrypto highlights several reasons Strategy remains on the sidelines: [10]
- Strategy holds about 640,808 BTC (≈$72.3 billion), making it the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury, but this concentration creates highly volatile earnings.
- The S&P 500 committee typically requires four straight quarters of positive earnings; Strategy’s results swing with Bitcoin’s price, including multi‑billion‑dollar unrealized gains in one quarter and multi‑billion‑dollar losses in another.
- S&P Dow Jones Indices has assigned Strategy a “B‑” credit rating, citing:
- High Bitcoin exposure
- Low U.S. dollar liquidity
- A narrow business model centered on a single asset
The article frames the SanDisk vs. Strategy contrast as symbolic of a larger clash between traditional finance and Bitcoin‑heavy corporate treasuries, noting that Strategy’s stock is roughly 35% below its July high and that index‑committee skepticism could weigh on any future S&P 500 hopes. [11]
Separately, CCN (via Yahoo’s news feed) also asks whether MSTR should be included in the S&P 500, underlining that by market cap Strategy is already comparable to many index constituents, but its earnings profile and crypto risk make committee approval far from guaranteed. [12]
Big story #3: Bitcoin premium near ‘crypto‑winter’ lows – but TD Cowen still sees 200% upside
In a widely‑circulated piece today, CryptoNews.com.au reports that Strategy’s “Bitcoin premium” — the extra value investors pay over the company’s net Bitcoin holdings — has fallen back toward levels last seen in the 2021–22 crypto winter. [13]
Highlights from that coverage:
- Strategy recently paused both at‑the‑market share issuance and new Bitcoin purchases, a shift that has drawn attention to how far the premium has compressed. [14]
- According to TD Cowen analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonathan Navarrete, the firm still rates MSTR “Buy” with a US$535 price target, implying roughly 200% upside from current levels. [15]
- Cowen’s base case projects that Strategy could hold around 815,000 BTC by the end of FY 2027, and at that level the intrinsic value of those coins alone would justify a per‑share valuation near US$540, assuming no premium. [16]
- The report also notes that MSCI‑driven index outflows could total $2.5–8.0 billion across various indices, but argues that Strategy’s combination of a US$500 million software business and ongoing Bitcoin accumulation still underpins a long‑term bull case. [17]
CryptoRank, summarising Coinpaper’s analysis, reinforces the premium story: it shows MSTR’s premium sliding back toward 2021 lows while Bitcoin‑backed credit issuance accelerates, suggesting investors are less willing to pay a big markup for the “leveraged Bitcoin” trade even as the company expands that business line. [18]
Big story #4: $21 billion raised in 2025 and record Bitcoin‑backed credit volumes
Even as the share price falls, Strategy is still aggressively using capital markets.
According to Coinpaper’s data, relayed via CryptoRank, Strategy has raised about US$21 billion year‑to‑date in 2025 across seven different securities, broken roughly into: [19]
- US$11.9 billion in common equity
- US$6.9 billion in preferred equity
- US$2.0 billion in convertible debt
On top of that, Stocktwits reports that Michael Saylor recently shared a chart showing weekly volume in the company’s Bitcoin‑backed loans and perpetual preferred products hitting a record US$18.9 million in the week ending November 21, across tickers such as STRFC, STRF, TRF and TRD. [20]
Saylor jokingly called the surge “probably nothing,” but the article notes several important angles: [21]
- Crypto‑collateralised lending as a whole has grown to over US$73 billion in outstanding balances in Q3 2025, up nearly 40% year‑on‑year.
- Strategy’s “Bitcoin‑backed treasury credit” model uses perpetual preferreds and related products to raise fiat liquidity without selling BTC, positioning Bitcoin as what Saylor calls “superior collateral.”
- The company has also expanded these products to Europe via euro‑denominated perpetual preferreds (e.g., the Stream “STRE” offering), targeting institutional investors.
Taken together with the capital‑raising data, this underscores how leveraged the Strategy thesis has become: the firm is not only long a massive Bitcoin stash but is increasingly funded by and exposed to Bitcoin‑collateralised credit markets.
Big story #5: Institutional flows – new 13F buyers step in
Despite the drawdown, some traditional money managers are still adding Strategy exposure, according to new 13F filings highlighted by MarketBeat: [22]
- Global Retirement Partners LLC opened a US$5.51 million position in Strategy in Q2, buying 13,633 shares.
- RiverFront Investment Group LLC reported a separate new stake worth about US$3.56 million (8,810 shares).
- Other institutions — including Legal & General, Charles Schwab Investment Management, the Swiss National Bank, and Sumitomo Mitsui Trust — have also increased their holdings, contributing to institutional ownership around 60% of the float.
MarketBeat’s overview also shows: [23]
- A “Moderate Buy” consensus rating from Wall Street, with an average price target near US$486.
- A recent Q3 print where Strategy posted US$8.42 in EPS vs. a consensus loss, with revenue up ~11% year‑on‑year to ~US$128.7 million, and FY 2025 guidance pointing to around US$80 in EPS (heavily influenced by Bitcoin gains and losses).
These data points reinforce how polarising MSTR has become: some institutions are buying the dip and anchoring on long‑term Bitcoin adoption, while others are exiting amid fears of forced index selling and prolonged crypto weakness.
Big story #6: Jim Cramer and the “leveraged commodity play” narrative
Financial‑TV commentary is adding fuel to the volatility.
In a piece published today, Insider Monkey recaps comments from CNBC’s Jim Cramer, who argued that Strategy is “not a stock anymore, it’s a commodity play — a leveraged commodity play” in light of JPMorgan’s MSCI warning. [24]
Cramer’s key lines, as quoted in the article:
- He praised the JPMorgan report as “brilliant” and questioned “what [MSTR] is doing in the MSCI” given its Bitcoin dependence. [25]
- On a potential index exclusion, he warned: “That stock cannot handle the truth.” [26]
Insider Monkey frames MSTR as a high‑risk, high‑beta way to bet on Bitcoin, while suggesting there may be other AI and energy names the authors consider more attractive. Their site and Finviz both show MSTR grouped alongside other “bubble candidates” like Bitcoin vehicles and speculative AI names in a separate article about three potential bubbles that could burst by 2026. [27]
Big story #7: Wall Street’s MSTR sell‑off and the Bitcoin spillover
The connection between Strategy and Bitcoin is running both ways.
A Meyka “BTCUSD News Today” post attributes part of Bitcoin’s recent slide to Wall Street’s large‑scale sell‑off of MSTR shares: [28]
- It notes that MSTR has dropped nearly 40% over the past three months, helping to sour crypto sentiment.
- Following that sell‑off, Bitcoin briefly fell to an intraday low near US$84,600 before stabilising around US$86,800, with its monthly performance down more than 5%. [29]
- The article casts Strategy as a key “transmission mechanism” between equity markets and Bitcoin, where large MSTR moves can influence BTC sentiment and vice versa.
This feedback loop is visible in today’s tape: Strategy’s drawdown, index fears, and bubble talk are part of a wider risk‑off move in crypto‑exposed equities, even as many analysts still project long‑term upside for Bitcoin itself.
How all of today’s news fits together for Strategy Inc stock
Pulling these threads together, today’s MSTR narrative boils down to three big tensions:
1. Index stability vs. Bitcoin maximalism
- Bearish side:
- Bullish side:
- A loyal shareholder base that explicitly wants Bitcoin exposure, not index stability.
- Arguments from Saylor and others that traditional index rules may eventually change as digital assets become mainstream. [32]
2. Shrinking premium vs. huge long‑term upside projections
- Compression:
- Strategy’s market premium over its BTC holdings is approaching 2021–22 lows, indicating diminished willingness to pay for the “leveraged Bitcoin” story. [33]
- Optimism:
3. Aggressive leverage vs. institutional accumulation
- Leverage is rising:
- Yet institutions are still buying:
Put simply, Strategy today sits at the crossroads of three narratives:
- Bitcoin proxy: A leveraged, high‑beta way to express a bullish or bearish view on BTC.
- Index pariah: A test case for how far traditional benchmarks will go in embracing (or rejecting) crypto‑heavy business models.
- Speculative battleground: A stock where short sellers, retail traders, and long‑only institutions all think they see something the others don’t.
What investors will be watching next
For readers tracking MSTR after today’s news, some of the key upcoming catalysts include:
- MSCI USA decision (mid‑January 2026): Whether Strategy is actually removed — and if so, how much passive selling hits the tape. [40]
- Any signal from the S&P 500 committee: A future inclusion would be a powerful positive surprise; continued exclusion reinforces the “index risk” thesis. [41]
- Bitcoin price path: Given Strategy’s enormous BTC position, sustained moves in Bitcoin above or below key levels (e.g., US$80k–90k) can swing reported earnings and investor sentiment rapidly. [42]
- Balance‑sheet and capital‑raising updates: New preferred or debt issuance, or a pause in capital markets activity, will change the leverage profile and could affect how rating agencies and index providers view the name. [43]
- Short‑interest trends: With nearly 10% of the float sold short, any sharp upside move in BTC or a positive index decision could fuel a short‑squeeze narrative, while further downside could embolden bears. [44]
References
1. finviz.com, 2. coincentral.com, 3. coincentral.com, 4. coincentral.com, 5. coincentral.com, 6. coincentral.com, 7. coincentral.com, 8. coincentral.com, 9. beincrypto.com, 10. beincrypto.com, 11. beincrypto.com, 12. finance.yahoo.com, 13. cryptonews.com.au, 14. cryptonews.com.au, 15. cryptonews.com.au, 16. cryptonews.com.au, 17. cryptonews.com.au, 18. cryptorank.io, 19. cryptorank.io, 20. stocktwits.com, 21. stocktwits.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.insidermonkey.com, 25. www.insidermonkey.com, 26. www.insidermonkey.com, 27. finviz.com, 28. meyka.com, 29. meyka.com, 30. coincentral.com, 31. beincrypto.com, 32. coincentral.com, 33. cryptonews.com.au, 34. cryptonews.com.au, 35. www.marketbeat.com, 36. cryptorank.io, 37. stocktwits.com, 38. www.marketbeat.com, 39. finviz.com, 40. coincentral.com, 41. beincrypto.com, 42. meyka.com, 43. cryptorank.io, 44. finviz.com
