As of Wednesday, November 26, 2025, Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI) — one of the market’s most closely watched AI infrastructure plays — is trying to stabilize after a brutal November sell‑off. The stock is trading around $33 per share, modestly higher on the day but still deep in correction territory following an earnings miss and a wave of cautious commentary on margins and AI server competition. [1]
Below is a concise rundown of everything important that hit the news about SMCI on November 26, 2025, plus how it fits into the bigger picture for the stock.
SMCI stock today: price, volume and key metrics
- Latest price (intraday, Nov 26): about $32.9–33.0, up roughly 1–2% versus Tuesday’s close. [2]
- Intraday range: roughly $32.3 – $33.4.
- Volume: around 16 million shares traded so far, against an average near 30 million shares — still active, but lighter than the peaks seen right after earnings. [3]
- Market cap: roughly $19–20 billion. [4]
- 52‑week range: about $25.71 – $66.44, putting today’s price roughly 50% below the 52‑week high. [5]
- Valuation & risk profile:
Performance-wise, SMCI is still down almost 37% over the past month but remains marginally up year‑to‑date (mid‑single digits) after its earlier AI‑driven surge. [8]
All the big SMCI headlines dated November 26, 2025
1. Options market lights up: big-money traders target SMCI
Benzinga highlighted unusual options activity in SMCI today, suggesting that “smart money” is actively positioning around the name: [9]
- Benzinga’s scanner flagged 63 extraordinary options trades in SMCI in a single session — well above normal background noise.
- The notional flow is skewed toward puts by dollar volume (roughly $4.3M in puts vs. $1.1M in calls), but by count about 57% of the large trades lean bullish and 33% bearish, indicating both hedging and speculative dip‑buying.
- Large trades were clustered around strikes from $32–33 on the downside and $60–120 on the upside, with expiries stretching well into 2026. [10]
- At the time of that report (around midday), SMCI was trading near $33.1, up almost 2% with intraday volume above 8 million shares. [11]
Benzinga also notes that five analysts active over the past month have an average 12‑month price target near $49.6 for SMCI, with ratings ranging from Neutral (Wedbush, ~$42 target) to Buy/Outperform (Rosenblatt at $55, KGI at $60, Needham at $51, JPMorgan Neutral at $40). [12]
Takeaway: Options data show that institutional traders are very engaged with SMCI — using puts heavily but also placing sizable upside bets, a classic signature of a high‑conviction, high‑volatility story.
2. Major institutions reshuffle their SMCI stakes
November 26 brought a cluster of institutional ownership headlines from MarketBeat that together paint a nuanced picture: some big holders are doubling down, while others are heading for the exits. [13]
Charles Schwab Investment Management increases its stake
- Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc. reported boosting its Q2 stake in Super Micro by 5.3% to about 3.97 million shares, representing roughly 0.67% of the company, valued at ~$195 million. [14]
- MarketBeat reiterates that overall institutional ownership stands around 84%, underscoring that SMCI is very much an institutional battleground stock. [15]
XTX Topco builds a new position
- In a separate Q2 filing, XTX Topco Ltd disclosed a new position of 69,179 SMCI shares, valued at around $3.4 million. [16]
- That filing sits alongside earlier reports of large increases from firms like Vanguard, Nuveen, American Century and Woodline Partners, reinforcing the idea that some long‑term players are leaning into the dip. [17]
Himension Capital slashes exposure by more than 70%
- By contrast, Himension Capital Singapore PTE. LTD. cut its Q2 holdings by 72.2%, selling 96,416 shares and leaving 37,089 shares worth about $1.82 million. [18]
Across these filings, MarketBeat also highlights:
- Insider ownership around 16.3%, with CFO David E. Weigand having sold 25,000 shares at roughly $45.14 back in mid‑September (about a 20% trim to his stake). [19]
Takeaway: On November 26, the tape shows net institutional interest remains strong, but positioning is bifurcated — some funds are clearly de‑risking while others see the recent decline as an opportunity.
3. New Form 144: director plans to sell nearly 49,000 shares
Reuters, via a TradingView news feed, reported that Super Micro director Tuan Sherman filed a Form 144 with the SEC today: [20]
- The filing contemplates the sale of 48,630 SMCI shares,
- with an approximate sale date of November 26, 2025,
- and Merrill Lynch & Co. listed as the broker.
Under SEC rules, a Form 144 allows insiders to sell restricted shares within 90 days of the filing, up to the amount specified. It doesn’t guarantee that every share will in fact be sold, but it is often interpreted by the market as a signal of insider willingness to take some profits or rebalance exposure.
Takeaway: After a huge multi‑year run, insider selling isn’t surprising — but with margins under pressure and volatility elevated, any fresh insider sale filings add to the perception of shorter‑term risk.
4. Intraday narratives: from early optimism to scrutiny
Two different pieces today captured the tone of intraday trading and the broader narrative around SMCI’s slide.
a) Positive early momentum alongside Tesla and Palantir
A piece syndicated on Somos Hermanos noted that Tesla, Palantir, and Super Micro were all trading higher in early Wednesday action, with SMCI quoted around $32.84 in the opening hours. [21]
That article emphasized that:
- SMCI remains a key AI and data‑center hardware play,
- Analysts’ consensus price target ~ $46.75 implies more than 40% upside from current levels, and
- Company revenue is expected to increase over 50% this year, driven by demand for AI infrastructure and cloud solutions. [22]
b) Smartkarma deep dive on the recent drop
A Smartkarma “Market Movers” note, also dated November 26, focused more on the downside and fundamental worries: [23]
- At the time of that snapshot, SMCI was quoted at $32.48, down 2.52% on the day, with volume around 21.4M shares.
- Smartkarma recapped a prior 14% one‑day plunge after Super Micro’s preliminary Q3 FY2025 numbers, where revenue of $4.5–4.6B and adjusted EPS of $0.29–0.31 fell well short of consensus expectations (~$5.4B revenue and $0.53 EPS). [24]
- Their internal “Smart Scores” show strong Growth and Momentum factors, but only mid‑range scores on Value and Resilience, underscoring that this is still a high‑beta, high‑expectation name. [25]
Takeaway: Across intraday coverage, SMCI is portrayed as volatile but still fundamentally important to the AI build‑out, with bulls pointing to upside potential and bears emphasizing execution risk and prior guidance shocks.
Margin pressure and inventory surge still dominate the story
Today’s commentary repeatedly circles back to Super Micro’s early‑November earnings miss and what it says about the business model.
Q1 FY2026 earnings miss
On November 4, 2025, SMCI reported Q1 FY2026 results that missed on both revenue and EPS: [26]
- Revenue: $5.02 billion vs. ~$6.48 billion consensus, down 15.5% year‑over‑year.
- EPS: $0.35 vs. $0.46 expected.
Reuters adds that the company attributed the shortfall largely to delivery schedule shifts for large AI orders: roughly $1.5 billion in revenue was pushed from the September quarter into the December quarter due to complex GPU rack configurations and last‑minute customer upgrades. [27]
Guidance and AI backlog still look big
Despite the miss, management leaned heavily into the long‑term AI demand story:
- Super Micro now targets at least $36 billion in FY2026 net sales, up from previous guidance of about $33 billion, underpinned by strong AI server demand. [28]
- For Q2 FY2026, the company projects revenue of $10–11 billion, well above the roughly $7.8 billion that analysts had been expecting at the time. [29]
- CEO Charles Liang highlighted more than $13 billion in backlog for Nvidia Blackwell Ultra GB300‑based systems, including what he described as the largest deal in the company’s history. [30]
The problem: margins, cash flow and inventory
Where the Street is struggling is profitability and working capital:
- Simply Wall St notes that gross margin fell to around 9.5%, its lowest level since 2021, amid intensified competition and heavy investment in new AI systems. [31]
- CMC Markets points out that operating cash flow for the quarter was deeply negative (~$918 million), leading to around $950 million in free cash outflow, as inventory and receivables ballooned. [32]
- Management itself expects Q2 gross margin to drop a further ~300 basis points versus already compressed Q1 levels, due to component mix and ramp‑up costs. [33]
The net result is a narrative where top‑line growth and backlog look impressive, but margin visibility and cash conversion look shaky — a tension that underpins much of today’s coverage.
Analyst sentiment and price targets after today’s news
Across today’s filings and articles, the analyst picture is clearly mixed:
- MarketBeat’s aggregation shows SMCI with an average rating of “Hold” and an average 12‑month target price around $48–49, implying roughly 45–50% upside from current levels. [34]
- The rating spread is wide:
- Sell / Strong Sell: Some services (e.g., Wall Street Zen, Zacks) have recently downgraded to “Sell” or “Strong Sell,” often citing margin compression and execution risk. [35]
- Neutral: Firms like Goldman Sachs and Wedbush are in the Neutral camp, with targets in the low‑to‑mid $40s (e.g. ~$34–42). [36]
- Buy / Outperform: Others, including Needham, Rosenblatt, Argus and KGI, remain constructive, with targets ranging from the low $50s up toward $60+. [37]
On the earnings side, MarketBeat estimates call for EPS to grow from about $1.86 to $2.22 next year, a roughly 19% increase, if Super Micro hits its AI‑driven growth targets. [38]
Simply Wall St goes further out, modeling $48.2 billion in revenue and $2.4 billion in earnings by 2028, which would require roughly 30% annual revenue growth from current levels — a steep but not impossible path if AI infrastructure demand remains strong. [39]
Oversold or value trap? What today’s move could mean for SMCI
MarketBeat’s technical piece from yesterday framed SMCI as a “crushed” but potentially attractive second‑chance AI play: [40]
- From early October highs, SMCI has corrected more than 40%, pushing its RSI down to the high‑20s/low‑30s, traditionally considered oversold territory. [41]
- Short interest above 17% of float adds fuel to the fire — it can accelerate downside in the short term but also set up violent short‑covering rallies if fundamentals or sentiment turn. [42]
At the same time, today’s institutional and options‑flow stories underline several key realities:
Bullish considerations
- Massive AI backlog & upgraded guidance: multi‑billion‑dollar orders tied to Nvidia’s Blackwell platform and upgraded FY2026 revenue targets show that demand is not the core issue. [43]
- Deep institutional involvement: the presence of large holders like Charles Schwab Investment Management, Vanguard and others suggests that long‑only institutions still see strategic value, even as some trim positions. [44]
- Options sentiment not one‑sided: despite heavy put activity, a meaningful slice of big‑ticket trades is betting on upside into 2026, aligned with analyst targets in the $50–60 range. [45]
Bearish considerations
- Squeezed margins and cash flow: sub‑10% gross margins, negative free cash flow and rising inventories raise the possibility that growth is coming at a high cost — and that profitability may stay under pressure longer than bulls hope. [46]
- Execution risk on very aggressive guidance: shifting billions of dollars in revenue due to delivery complexities, plus dependency on GPU supply and next‑gen rollouts from Nvidia and AMD, creates logistical and timing risk. [47]
- High short interest and insider sales: with 17% of the float shorted and fresh Form 144 filings, sentiment among some sophisticated players and insiders is clearly cautious in the near term. [48]
Bottom line: how to read SMCI after November 26’s headlines
Putting today’s news together:
- Price action shows a tentative bounce after a severe drawdown, with SMCI trading around $33 and still roughly half off its 2024 highs. [49]
- Fundamentals remain a tug‑of‑war between massive AI‑driven growth potential and very real margin and cash‑flow worries. [50]
- Sentiment is sharply divided: options desks, hedge funds, long‑only institutions and analysts are all active, but far from unanimous, with ratings ranging from Sell to Buy and targets spread from the mid‑30s to around $60. [51]
For traders and investors, November 26, 2025, reinforces that SMCI is no longer a simple “AI rocket ship” story. It’s a complex, high‑beta stock where:
- Bulls are betting that order backlog, upgraded guidance, and AI data‑center demand will eventually outweigh short‑term margin pain.
- Bears are focused on execution risk, inventory build‑up, and the possibility that AI hardware spending is normalizing after a boom.
As always, this article is for information and commentary only and does not constitute financial advice. Anyone considering SMCI should review the company’s official filings, earnings materials and their own risk tolerance — or consult a qualified financial adviser — before making investment decisions.
References
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