Tariffs & Rare-Earth Gold Rush: Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Surges 19% on New Trade Policies

20 October 2025

Q3 Results: Cleveland-Cliffs reported Q3 sales of $4.73 billion, up 3.6% from $4.57 billion a year ago ^[1], narrowly missing analysts’ $4.90 billion estimate.
Tariff-Driven Demand: The company cited President Trump’s 50% steel tariffs as reviving U.S. demand for its auto-grade steel ^[2]. CEO Lourenco Goncalves said, “As a result of this new trade environment, we have won new and growing supply arrangements with all major automotive [OEMs]” ^[3].
Rare-Earth Push: CLF announced plans to explore its Michigan and Minnesota mines for rare-earth minerals. Management noted this would “align Cleveland-Cliffs with the broader national strategy for critical material independence,” echoing the Biden administration’s push for domestic critical minerals ^[4] ^[5].
Stock Rally: CLF shares jumped ~19% premarket on Oct. 20 to about $15.87, settling around $15.50 (up ~16% intraday) ^[6] ^[7]. The stock has climbed roughly 42% YTD ^[8] after this surge.
Analyst Outlook: Despite today’s rally, analysts remain cautious. The consensus “Buy” rating comes with an average 12-month price target near $11.31 – about 27% below current levels ^[9]. Many see CLF as a beneficiary of tariffs, but warn that falling steel prices or demand could pressure profits ahead.

Tariff-Fueled Growth in Q3

Cleveland-Cliffs’ Q3 results revealed a tariff-fueled bump in sales. Revenue rose 3.6% year-over-year to $4.73 billion, thanks in part to the 50% tariff on imported steel imposed earlier this year ^[10]. The company shipped 4.0 million net tons of steel (vs 3.8 M last year), reflecting stronger orders from automakers ^[11]. However, CLF still posted a GAAP net loss of $251 million ($0.51/share), nearly unchanged from a year ago ^[12]. Adjusted loss was $0.45/share, in line with forecasts. Management emphasized that new long-term contracts with Detroit automakers (Ford, GM, etc.) were secured under the new trade rules. As CEO Goncalves noted, domestic demand has “recovered for automotive-grade steel made in the USA” thanks to the Trump administration’s “new trade environment” ^[13] ^[14]. In short, the tariffs are helping CLF grab market share at home.

Meanwhile, CLF also signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with a global steelmaker to leverage its U.S. capacity ^[15] ^[16]. The company reiterated cost-saving measures and trimmed its full-year outlook: it now expects 2025 capex of about $525 M (down from $600 M) and SG&A ~$550 M (down from $575 M) ^[17]. Such discipline is meant to preserve cash, especially since steel prices have started to moderate.

Rare-Earth Strategy Amid Trade Tensions

In a major strategic shift, Cleveland-Cliffs is betting on critical minerals too. The company announced it will explore for rare-earth elements (REEs) at its U.S. mining sites. This move comes as the U.S. government seeks to reduce dependence on China for REEs – essential for EVs, wind turbines and defense. Goncalves told investors that “the renewed importance of rare earths has driven us to re-focus on this potential opportunity at our upstream mining assets” ^[18]. He added that identifying REEs “align[s] Cleveland-Cliffs with the broader national strategy for critical material independence” ^[19].

This announcement coincides with a broader trade-rhetoric backdrop: earlier this month China tightened export controls on several rare-earth metals ^[20], prompting U.S. officials to consider even higher tariffs on Chinese goods in retaliation ^[21]. CLF’s push to find domestic REEs is therefore being viewed by investors as timely. (Other U.S. miners, like MP Materials, also jumped on the China news ^[22].) Cleveland-Cliffs’ exploration is in preliminary stages, but analysts say it could eventually add a new revenue stream if viable deposits are confirmed.

Stock Reaction and Analyst Take

Investors cheered the dual announcements. CLF stock spiked ~19% in premarket trading on Oct. 20 ^[23], and continued to trade near those levels during the day. At $15.50 (as of Oct. 20’s open ^[24]), the shares sit well above the average analyst target. Remarkably, this jump brought CLF to a roughly 41.7% gain year-to-date ^[25]. Market participants noted that CLF’s rally outpaced peers in steel and materials. For context, competitor Nucor (NUE) gained more modestly after reporting results, highlighting CLF’s unique tariff-and-REE narrative.

Despite the enthusiasm, Wall Street’s consensus remains cautious. According to StockAnalysis, the 11 covering analysts maintain a “Buy” consensus but with an average 1-year target of only $11.31 ^[26] (range $3.91 – $17.00). Several brokerages (JPMorgan, BofA, Wells Fargo) have “Hold” or modest “Buy” ratings, noting that CLF’s profits are still in the red and reliant on a favourable tariff regime. An analyst from Goldman Sachs recently reiterated a Strong Buy but only modestly raised his target from $13 to $15 ^[27].

Forecast: Many analysts expect CLF to remain volatile. If steel tariffs stay in place and global auto demand holds up, CLF could continue to outperform lower-cost or non-domestic producers. However, if tariffs are rolled back or if automotive production falters, the rally could lose steam. Given current sentiment and a full-year EBITDA forecast roughly flat to Q4, CLF’s short-term price target (consensus ~$12) likely lags the market price ^[28]. Still, some see room for the stock to stay elevated as long as the tariff-backed trading environment persists. Investors will be watching CLF’s next moves in capex, cost cuts and any concrete rare-earth findings, which Goncalves believes could be as transformative for critical minerals as past measures were for steel ^[29] ^[30].

Sources: Cleveland-Cliffs Q3 earnings release and related filings ^[31]; Dow Jones/WSJ coverage ^[32] ^[33]; Bloomberg Law (via Reuters) on rare-earth exploration ^[34]; trading commentary (Reuters/TS2/MarketScreener) on tariffs and stock movement ^[35] ^[36]; StockAnalysis (TipRanks) analyst data ^[37].

Bessent Floats Longer Tariff Truce for China Rare Earth Delay

Watch this video on YouTube.

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Mateusz Kaczmarek Latest posts

A technology and finance expert writing for TS2.tech. He analyzes developments in satellites, telecommunications, and artificial intelligence, with a focus on their impact on global markets. Author of industry reports and market commentary, often cited in tech and business media. Passionate about innovation and the digital economy.

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Tariffs & Rare-Earth Gold Rush: Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Surges 19% on New Trade Policies

Tariff-Fueled Growth in Q3

Rare-Earth Strategy Amid Trade Tensions

Stock Reaction and Analyst Take

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Tariffs & Rare-Earth Gold Rush: Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Surges 19% on New Trade Policies

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Stock Reaction and Analyst Take

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