Summary: Tesco shares touched a new 52‑week high in early London trade before losing momentum by midday, as industry data showed grocery inflation easing and market‑share gains for the UK’s largest grocer. Today’s focus for investors: how heavy festive promotions, slowing inflation and Tesco’s buyback programme shape margins and momentum into Christmas. [1]
Key takeaways (11 Nov 2025)
- Intraday swing: TSCO set a new 52‑week high at 480.50p after the open, then slipped to trade around the 459–462p area by early afternoon; previous close was 475.60p. Day range so far: 457.30–480.50p. [2]
- Industry backdrop: UK grocery inflation slowed to 4.7% in the four weeks to 2 Nov as retailers ramped up Christmas promotions. [3]
- Share dynamics: Over the 12 weeks to 2 Nov, Tesco sales rose 5.9% with market share at 28.2%; Ocado fastest‑growing, Lidl strongest bricks‑and‑mortar growth. [4]
- News flow: Trade press highlights Tesco and Lidl “pulling ahead” on share, underscoring the competitive pressure shaping holiday pricing. [5]
- Context: After raising FY25/26 profit guidance on 2 Oct, Tesco enters peak season with an active £1.45bn buyback (c. £1.10bn completed by 7 Nov). [6]
Today’s trading: from record high to mid‑session pullback
Tesco opened at 480.00p, briefly set a new 52‑week high of 480.50p, and then reversed, trading ~3–4% lower intraday by early afternoon. The day’s range printed 457.30–480.50p, with the previous close at 475.60p (data delayed ~15 minutes). Volatility likely reflects profit‑taking after a strong run and sector headlines on promotional intensity. [7]
The news moving UK grocers today
Fresh industry data show the price environment easing into the holidays:
- Grocery inflation eased to 4.7% in the four weeks to 2 Nov, down from 5.2% a month earlier, as supermarkets leaned into Christmas promotions. Promotional spending grew 9.4% y/y versus 1.8% on full‑price items; total grocery sales rose 3.2% (implying softer volumes). [8]
- Share and sales mix: Over the 12‑week period to 2 Nov, Tesco sales rose 5.9% and market share reached 28.2%; Lidl maintained double‑digit growth (10.8%) to 8.2% share, and Ocado posted record 2.1% share with 15.9% sales growth. [9]
- Sector read‑across: Trade coverage today frames the picture as Tesco and Lidl pulling ahead while some peers cede share, echoing the Worldpanel by Numerator snapshot. [10]
Why this matters for TSCO:
Easing inflation and a heavier promotional mix can support traffic and share but may pressure gross margins if discounting intensifies. Tesco’s scale, loyalty mechanics (Clubcard Prices) and supplier terms often help it balance volume and margin better than smaller rivals; today’s data suggest that the group is holding or extending share heading into peak trading. [11]
Strategy and guidance: where Tesco stands going into Christmas
On 2 Oct, Tesco raised FY25/26 adjusted operating profit guidance to £2.9–£3.1bn (from £2.7–£3.0bn) alongside interim results, citing resilient demand and market‑share gains. Management flagged a competitive backdrop but expressed confidence in festive trading. [12]
The company is also executing a £1.45bn share buyback to April 2026; as of 7 Nov, about £1,100m had been purchased for cancellation, reducing the share count and supporting EPS. [13]
Near‑term corporate calendar items seen on market data services include an interim dividend payment scheduled for 21 Nov 2025 (ex‑date 9 Oct). For income investors, that’s a modest, near‑term cash return ahead of the peak trading update cadence. [14]
What to watch next
- Promotional intensity vs. margins: With c. 30% of spend already on promotion, watch for signals on mix and margin in Christmas trading updates. [15]
- Market‑share cadence: Whether Tesco consolidates gains (28%+ share) as discounters push value, and whether Ocado’s online strength alters the competitive balance in convenience and big‑basket shops. [16]
- Macro tailwinds: Investor expectations around rate cuts, the UK Budget timing, and broader consumer confidence—all key inputs to December volumes and trading tone reported in January. [17]
- Capital returns: Ongoing buyback prints via daily “Transaction in Own Shares” RNS notices and any commentary on the 2026 capital‑return framework. [18]
TSCO today: the bottom line
For 11 Nov 2025, the story is two‑part: (1) technicals—a pop to a new 52‑week high followed by mid‑session weakness—and (2) fundamentals—slowing grocery inflation and ongoing share gains heading into the all‑important Christmas period. With guidance already raised in October and the buyback steadily shrinking the float, the investment debate into year‑end centres on how much of the festive resilience is already in the price and how margins hold up under elevated promotional activity. [19]
Sources cited (11 Nov 2025)
- Market data & intraday stats: Financial Times Markets (TSCO:LSE) “Summary” page (13:24 GMT snapshot). [20]
- Industry data & inflation: Reuters – UK grocery inflation slows to 4.7%; Worldpanel by Numerator data. [21]
- Market share details (12 weeks to 2 Nov): Kantar / Worldpanel by Numerator update. [22]
- Sector framing: Retail Gazette – Tesco and Lidl pull ahead; Ocado at record share. [23]
- Guidance: Tesco interim‑results page; Reuters coverage of guidance raise. [24]
- Capital returns: Tesco investor page – Buyback programme progress as of 7 Nov. [25]
Disclosure: This article is for information and news purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research.
References
1. markets.ft.com, 2. markets.ft.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.kantar.com, 5. www.retailgazette.co.uk, 6. www.tescoplc.com, 7. markets.ft.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.kantar.com, 10. www.retailgazette.co.uk, 11. www.kantar.com, 12. www.tescoplc.com, 13. www.tescoplc.com, 14. markets.ft.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.kantar.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.tescoplc.com, 19. markets.ft.com, 20. markets.ft.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.kantar.com, 23. www.retailgazette.co.uk, 24. www.tescoplc.com, 25. www.tescoplc.com
