- Stock Price & Market Cap: TG Therapeutics (NASDAQ: TGTX) trades around $35 per share as of Nov 3, 2025, giving a market capitalization of roughly $5.5 billion [1]. The stock has climbed about 30% over the past year [2], though it remains volatile – shares jumped ~10% pre-market on the latest earnings news [3] before oscillating intraday.
- Q3 2025 Financials:Revenue surged to $161.7 million in Q3 2025 (+92.8% YoY), driven by U.S. sales of Briumvi (ublituximab) at $152.9 million (+84% YoY, +10% QoQ) [4]. Net income was $390.9 million for the quarter – boosted by a one-time tax benefit of ~$365 million (underlying operational profit was modest without this) [5].
- Guidance Raised: On Nov 3, management raised full-year 2025 guidance to ~$600 million in total revenue (up from ~$585M prior) and ~$585 million in U.S. Briumvi net sales [6], reflecting confidence in continued demand.
- Flagship Product – Briumvi:Briumvi is an FDA-approved anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (RMS) [7]. Launched in 2023, it is now TG’s primary revenue driver, capturing share in a market dominated by Roche’s Ocrevus and Novartis’ Kesimpta. Briumvi’s appeal lies in its potent B-cell depletion and convenient dosing schedule (two infusions a year), and it’s also approved in Europe (May 2023).
- Pipeline & R&D: TG Therapeutics is expanding beyond IV Briumvi with a subcutaneous Briumvi injection in Phase 3 trials, which management believes could “nearly double” the drug’s addressable market [8] [9]. Other pipeline candidates include TG-1701 (a BTK inhibitor for B-cell cancers), Azer-Cel (an allogeneic CD19 CAR-T cell therapy, being explored for progressive MS), and TG-1801 (a CD47/CD19 bispecific antibody) – all in early-stage trials [10]. The company’s R&D spend was $40.9M in Q3 [11] as it advances these programs.
- Leadership: The company is led by longtime Chairman & CEO Michael S. Weiss, who has overseen TG’s transition to a commercial-stage biotech. Under Weiss, TG Therapeutics emphasizes disciplined capital allocation alongside drug development – exemplified by a $100M share repurchase completed in Q3 and authorization of another $100M buyback [12].
- Recent Stock Performance: TGTX shares have outperformed many biotech peers in 2025, fueled by Briumvi’s commercial success. However, the stock saw bouts of volatility – including a 20%+ pullback in late summer and sharp swings around earnings – reflecting both high expectations and typical biotech risk appetite. As of early November, the stock is roughly +18% year-to-date, and about 15% below its 52-week high in the low $40s.
- Analyst Sentiment: Wall Street’s view is broadly bullish. The consensus rating is “Moderate Buy” with an average 12-month price target around $48–$49, implying ~50% upside from current levels [13]. High estimates reach $60 (H.C. Wainwright) and even bullish fair value models suggest upside potential [14]. That said, a couple of analysts rate it Hold with lower targets (~$37), citing the company’s single-product reliance and execution risks. Overall, sentiment reflects optimism for Briumvi’s growth and pipeline, tempered by typical biotech uncertainties.
Company Overview: Briumvi-Focused Business Model
TG Therapeutics, Inc. is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company specializing in treatments for B-cell mediated diseases [15]. After years as a development-stage biotech, TG entered the commercial arena with Briumvi, its first approved product, and now generates the majority of revenue from Briumvi sales in the U.S. [16]. The company’s strategy centers on leveraging its expertise in B-cell biology to address both autoimmune disorders and B-cell cancers.
Briumvi – A Breakthrough in Multiple Sclerosis Therapy
Briumvi (ublituximab-xiiy) is TG’s flagship drug, approved by the FDA in December 2022 for adults with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (RMS) [17]. It is an intravenous anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody, similar in mechanism to Roche’s blockbuster Ocrevus (ocrelizumab), targeting B-cells to reduce MS disease activity. Briumvi’s Phase 3 trials (ULTIMATE I & II) showed robust efficacy in reducing relapses and MRI lesions in RMS. Notably, long-term extension data presented in late 2025 demonstrated that ~90% of Briumvi-treated patients remained free of disability progression after 6 years [18] – an encouraging sign of sustained benefit.
As a new entrant in the ~$20B/year MS market, Briumvi is positioning itself on efficacy and value. The drug is administered in two infusions per year (after an initial dose split over Day 1 and Day 15), offering patients a semi-annual treatment similar to Ocrevus. TG priced Briumvi at a slight discount to Ocrevus, aiming to spur uptake via payers. This strategy, combined with a shorter infusion time (1 hour infusion vs. ~2.5 hours for Ocrevus) and strong head-to-head data, has led to rapid adoption. As of Q3 2025, Briumvi’s U.S. net sales hit $152.9M for the quarter [19], up 84% from the same quarter a year prior – indicating accelerating market penetration.
Briumvi’s market position: It competes in a highly competitive RMS landscape that includes not only Ocrevus and Kesimpta (Novartis’ monthly subcutaneous ofatumumab), but also other classes like oral S1P modulators (e.g. Novartis’ Gilenya) and emerging BTK inhibitors in trials. Despite this, anti-CD20 therapies have become a preferred option for active MS due to their high efficacy, and Briumvi’s performance suggests it is capturing meaningful share. TG is also pursuing global expansion – Briumvi received EU approval in mid-2023 and TG partnered with Neuraxpharm to launch it in Europe [20], contributing to a small portion of international revenue (about 5% of Q3 sales).
Pipeline and R&D Programs
While Briumvi’s commercial rollout is the company’s focal point, TG Therapeutics is concurrently investing in pipeline innovations to extend its B-cell franchise:
- Subcutaneous Briumvi: A Phase 3 trial is underway testing a subcutaneous (under-the-skin) formulation of ublituximab. This product is designed as a “true subQ” auto-injector that patients or caregivers could administer at home, with dosing either every 2 months or quarterly [21]. CEO Michael Weiss has highlighted subcutaneous Briumvi as a “major opportunity” that could nearly double the addressable market by appealing to patients who prefer self-administration over IV infusions [22] [23]. Enrollment in the Phase 3 is progressing well – TG initiated the trial in mid-2025 and expects to complete enrollment by the first half of 2026 [24]. Top-line data are anticipated by late 2026 or early 2027, setting up a potential approval and launch in 2028 if successful [25]. If approved, TG would be the only company offering both IV and self-administered CD20 therapies in MS, which could be a unique competitive edge [26].
- ENHANCE Dosing Trial: In parallel, TG completed enrollment (by Oct 2025) for the ENHANCE Phase 3 trial, which evaluates a simplified one-day dosing regimen for IV Briumvi. The goal is to combine the current Day 1 and Day 15 doses into a single infusion on Day 1, while maintaining bioequivalence [27]. If this “one-and-done” dosing schedule proves safe and effective, it would make Briumvi even more convenient and efficient for patients and infusion centers. Weiss noted that interest in this trial was extremely high and data should read out by mid-2026, potentially enabling a label update and launch of the new dosing schedule in 2027 [28].
- TG-1701 (BTK inhibitor): TG-1701 is an oral, covalent Bruton’s Tyrosine Kinase inhibitor being developed for B-cell malignancies [29]. It’s in Phase 1 studies, likely targeting diseases like CLL or lymphoma where BTK inhibitors (e.g. ibrutinib) are effective. While early-stage, TG-1701 could eventually complement TG’s oncology portfolio or be combined with anti-CD20 antibodies for synergistic effects in cancers.
- Azer-Cel (Allogeneic CD19 CAR-T): Azer-Cel is an experimental allogeneic CAR-T cell therapy that targets CD19 (a B-cell marker) – essentially an off-the-shelf CAR-T product. Uniquely, TG is exploring Azer-Cel in progressive MS, aiming to reboot the immune system in patients with advanced disease [30]. This is a high-risk, high-reward program: while CAR-T has seen success in cancers, its application in autoimmune disease is novel. Azer-Cel is currently in early trials (Phase 1), and if it shows promise, it could open a new frontier for treating neuroimmune conditions that don’t respond to standard therapies.
- TG-1801 (CD47/CD19 bispecific antibody): TG-1801 is a bispecific monoclonal antibody targeting CD19 (B-cells) and CD47 (the “don’t eat me” signal used by cancer cells to evade macrophages). It’s in Phase 1 development [31]. The dual-target approach is intended for B-cell lymphomas – by binding CD19 it directs immune attack to B-cells, and by blocking CD47 it may enhance the immune system’s ability to engulf those cells. TG-1801 is an oncology asset that could eventually be combined with TG’s other therapies (like TG-1701 or ublituximab) in B-cell cancers.
TG’s research & development expense was $40.9M in Q3 2025 [32] (approximately 25% of quarterly revenue), underscoring its commitment to advancing these programs. The company’s strategy is to leverage Briumvi’s cash flows to fund pipeline development, while remaining opportunistic about external opportunities. Management has indicated they are prioritizing internal programs and have held off on expensive M&A deals, unless a compelling strategic fit arises [33]. By focusing on both near-term product enhancements (subcu formulation, dosing improvement) and long-term innovations (CAR-T, novel combos), TG aims to sustain growth beyond Briumvi’s initial MS indication.
Leadership and Strategy
Michael S. Weiss (Chairman & CEO) is the architect of TG Therapeutics’ game plan. He co-founded the company and has a track record in biotech entrepreneurship. Under his leadership, TG pivoted from a development-stage firm (once working on cancer combos) to a fully-integrated commercial enterprise. Weiss emphasizes a balanced approach: “great product, great people” driving execution, paired with financial discipline [34] [35]. In the Q3 earnings call, he noted that TG is now operationally profitable and growing, and that barring any strategic acquisitions, the company expects to remain profitable going forward [36].
Other key leaders include Adam Waldman (Chief Commercial Officer), who leads Briumvi’s sales strategy. Waldman highlighted the team’s focus on patient outcomes and physician engagement, pointing out that after six years of continuous Briumvi treatment, ~90% of patients showed no disability progression – a compelling message to neurologists [37]. Sean Power (CFO) manages the financial side, ensuring TG can fund its growth; notably, TG ended Q3 with $178.3M in cash and securities [38], providing a runway for operations. The company has also shown shareholder-friendly moves like buybacks – repurchasing 3.5 million shares at ~$28.50 average in Q3 and authorizing another $100M buyback [39]. This signals management’s confidence in the stock’s value.
It’s worth noting that insiders have monetized some shares during 2025’s rally – for example, the CFO sold ~$629K in stock in January [40] and an independent director made several sales mid-year [41]. While insiders routinely sell for personal reasons, such transactions can sometimes signal that management views the stock as fairly valued. Nonetheless, TG’s insider selling was accompanied by the corporate buyback program, which may have helped offset any negative market perception.
Recent News & Developments
Q3 2025 Earnings – Big Beat and Brighter Guidance
TG Therapeutics delivered strong Q3 2025 results on November 3, 2025, exceeding expectations and showcasing rapid growth. The company reported $161.7M in total revenue, up ~93% from $83.9M in the prior-year quarter [42]. This performance beat analyst estimates (~$152M) and was largely powered by Briumvi’s success in the U.S. (95% of revenue) [43]. Key highlights from the quarter:
- Blowout Earnings: Briumvi’s surging sales led to a remarkably high profit on paper – TG posted net income of $390.9M for Q3, versus just $3.9M a year ago [44]. This astronomical jump was driven by a non-recurring tax benefit (~$365M) recognized in the quarter [45], as the company likely released a valuation allowance on deferred tax assets now that it’s generating taxable income. Adjusted for this one-time item, TG still achieved a positive net income (~$25M by subtraction), reflecting that the core business has turned profitable after years of losses. The GAAP EPS of $2.43 crushed consensus (around $0.21) [46], though investors understand that the bulk of that EPS came from the tax accounting gain.
- Revenue Beat & Growth: Q3 revenue of $161.7M not only beat the ~$152M expected, but also nearly doubled year-on-year [47]. For context, Q3 2024 revenue was ~$83.9M, so the increase is ~+93% YoY. Sequentially, revenue was up ~15% from Q2’s $141.1M [48]. TG noted that Briumvi U.S. net sales were $152.9M in Q3 [49], growing +84% YoY and +10% quarter-over-quarter – indicating strong uptake momentum. This kind of growth is impressive for a drug in only its second year on market, suggesting Briumvi is gaining share in RMS as awareness grows among neurologists and patients.
- Guidance Raise: Based on the robust Q3 and confidence in Q4 trends, TG Therapeutics raised its 2025 revenue guidance. The company now forecasts ≈$600M in total revenue for full-year 2025, up from prior guidance of ~$585M [50]. Within that, U.S. Briumvi sales are projected around $585M (previously $570–575M) [51] [52]. This implies Q4 revenues in the ballpark of $170M+, sustaining the quarterly run-rate. CEO Michael Weiss remarked, “the third quarter marked another strong period of performance across our strategic priorities, driving continued Briumvi growth [and] advancing our pipeline… while maintaining a disciplined capital allocation approach.” [53]. In other words, TG is hitting on all cylinders – the core business is exceeding plan, so they’re comfortable upping targets.
- Expenses and Cash: On the cost side, R&D expense was $40.9M in Q3 and SG&A was $63.4M [54]. SG&A has increased as the commercial organization scales (sales reps, marketing for Briumvi, etc.), but importantly, revenue growth (+93%) far outpaced SG&A growth, showing improving operating leverage. Cash and equivalents were $178.3M as of Sept 30 [55]. Given TG is now cash-flow positive from operations (excluding one-times), this cash cushion – along with any future profits – can fuel pipeline R&D and the ongoing share buybacks.
- Share Buyback: TG completed its initial $100M share repurchase program during Q3, buying back ~3.5M shares at an average price of ~$28.50 [56]. This reduced the outstanding share count (~160M shares now) and signals management’s confidence in the company’s prospects. The Board also authorized a fresh $100M buyback program [57]. Such a move is somewhat uncommon for a small-mid cap biotech (which usually hoard cash for R&D), and it underscores that TG’s leadership sees the stock as undervalued and/or has excess capital thanks to Briumvi’s success. It’s a shareholder-friendly action that can provide support to the share price.
Figure: TG Therapeutics quarterly revenue (blue), net income (red), and EBITDA (yellow) from Q3 2022 through Q3 2025. The company has seen accelerating revenue growth as Briumvi sales ramped up, turning the corner to profitability in 2025. Note the exceptionally large net income in Q3 2025, which was boosted by a one-time tax benefit (accounting for deferred tax assets) [58].
- Stock Market Reaction: Initially, investors cheered the earnings – TGTX popped about 4–10% in pre-market trading on Nov 3 after results came out [59] [60]. The combination of a revenue beat, guidance raise, and headline-grabbing EPS gain was seen as very positive. However, as the trading day wore on, the stock’s gains faded and TGTX actually dipped into the red by mid-morning (down nearly 10% at one point) [61]. This whipsaw likely reflected profit-taking and a closer analysis of the results: once traders looked past the one-time EPS boost, they may have focused on the fact that sequential sales growth, while solid, was ~10% – a more modest figure than some hype would suggest. Additionally, broader biotech market volatility or macro factors could have contributed. By the end of that day, TGTX settled roughly flat to slightly down. This reaction underscores that expectations are high – even strong results can lead to “sell the news” if investors anticipated an even bigger beat or are cautious on forward-looking metrics like Q4 growth or margins.
In summary, Q3 2025 was a milestone quarter for TG Therapeutics: very few young biotechs reach the point of nearing $600M annual revenue run-rate and actual profitability. The results solidified Briumvi’s status as a commercial success and gave the company resources (cash and credibility) to push its pipeline forward. The tempered stock response suggests that much of Briumvi’s success was already priced in, and that investors are now turning their attention to TG’s next chapters – sustaining Briumvi’s growth and delivering pipeline progress.
Other Recent Developments (Trials, Data, Leadership)
Beyond the headline financials, TG had several notable developments in recent months:
- ENHANCE Trial Enrollment Completed: On Oct 28, 2025, TG announced it completed enrollment in the Phase 3 ENHANCE trial [62]. This study is testing whether Briumvi’s initial two-dose regimen can be simplified to one infusion. Rapid enrollment suggests high interest among trial sites and patients, likely due to the convenience potential. As mentioned, data is expected by mid-2026 and could lead to a new dosing schedule by 2027 if positive [63]. A successful outcome would strengthen Briumvi’s market position (easier treatment administration) and could provide a mid-’20s catalyst and incremental revenue (if it encourages more patients to choose Briumvi or improves adherence).
- Long-Term Briumvi Data: New 5-year and 6-year follow-up data on Briumvi were presented in late September 2025 (likely at the ECTRIMS conference, a major MS meeting). TG’s Sept 24 press release highlighted that 89.9% of RMS patients on continuous Briumvi had no disability progression at 6 years [64]. This long-term outcome is very impressive for MS therapy – it suggests that Briumvi not only controls relapses and MRI activity, but may also alter the course of disability accumulation for many patients. Such data help bolster Briumvi’s profile against competitors and are powerful for marketing to physicians (“high efficacy sustained over time”). The CCO, Adam Waldman, stressed this point on the earnings call, noting “after six years of continuous treatment, nearly 90% of patients remain free from disability progression.” [65]. These results come from extended analyses of the ULTIMATE trial patients and real-world extensions, and they underscore Briumvi’s potential as a long-term solution for MS management.
- Regulatory Milestones: TG has been expanding Briumvi internationally. The European Commission approved Briumvi on May 31, 2023 [66], and launch efforts in Europe have begun via partner Neuraxpharm. In early 2025, Switzerland’s Swissmedic also approved Briumvi [67]. While ex-U.S. sales are still modest, these approvals lay the groundwork for additional revenue streams and global adoption. Furthermore, TG is likely to seek approvals in other regions (e.g., Canada, Australia) in due course, potentially in collaboration with partners. No major new regulatory approvals were announced in late 2025, but the focus remains on executing the U.S. launch and progressing trials for label expansions (like subcutaneous delivery).
- Leadership Team Update: There haven’t been big shake-ups at the top, but TG did hold its Annual General Meeting on June 12, 2025 [68], at which shareholders re-elected the board and endorsed the leadership’s strategy. During 2025, there were some insider stock sales (as noted earlier) but no indications of departures. In fact, the continuity of the management team (Weiss, Power, Waldman, etc.) is seen as a positive, given their success so far. The company’s headquarters also moved to a new office in Morrisville, NC (Research Triangle area) from New York, reflecting a growing presence in a biotech hub [69].
- Investor Sentiment Swings: TG’s stock saw notable moves in the weeks prior to earnings. In September 2025, shares fell about 24% over a short period [70], possibly due to general biotech sector weakness or profit-taking after a strong summer rally. By October, sentiment had improved – for instance, an “Optimistic investors push TGTX up 16%” blurb was noted in some stock analysis feeds after the stock rebounded [71]. Additionally, multiple analysts raised their price targets during 2025 as Briumvi’s trajectory became clearer. In September 2025, B. Riley Securities reiterated a Buy and bumped their TGTX target from $53 to $55 [72], citing continued confidence in Briumvi’s performance. And in October 2025, H.C. Wainwright initiated coverage with a Buy and Street-high $60 target, expressing optimism about the company’s “strategic direction and market prospects.” [73] These actions contributed to positive buzz around the stock heading into Q3 results. (We’ll dive more into analyst commentary in the next section.)
In summary, the past few months for TG Therapeutics have been eventful: blockbuster sales growth, important clinical milestones (trial enrollments, long-term data), and continued external validation (analyst endorsements, investor interest). The company appears to be executing well on its commercial launch and simultaneously advancing its pipeline initiatives – a delicate balance that can make or break a emerging biotech transitioning to a commercial-stage pharma.
Stock Performance and Analyst Insights
TG Therapeutics’ stock (TGTX) has been on a rollercoaster in recent years, but with an undeniable upward trajectory as Briumvi’s prospects turned from hopeful to actualized. Here’s a closer look at how the stock has performed and what experts are saying:
1-Year Stock Trend: Over the last 12 months, TGTX shares have risen roughly 33% [74], significantly outperforming the broader biotech index. The stock entered 2025 around the high-$20s, rallied to a peak in the mid-$40s by mid-year, and saw some corrections before settling in the mid-$30s recently. Key catalysts for these moves included Briumvi’s early sales reports (which blew past expectations and drove the stock up in early 2024), and periodic pullbacks when biotech sentiment soured or insiders took profits. For example, the stock spiked in spring 2025 when TG raised guidance and some analysts hiked targets, then pulled back sharply (~-24%) in late August/early September [75] possibly due to market rotation out of high-valuation biotech names. It then climbed again in October ahead of Q3 earnings, as optimism built for another beat.
Figure: TG Therapeutics stock price (blue line, USD) over the past year (Nov 2024 – Oct 2025), with analysts’ one-year price targets (dashed lines) in that period. The green line shows the highest analyst target ($55), grey is the consensus average (~$42), and red is the lowest target (around $11, an outlier) [76]. The chart illustrates TGTX’s volatility – climbing on Briumvi’s success but with significant swings – and the generally bullish analyst outlook, which trended upward throughout 2025.
Recent Trading & Technicals: In the days surrounding the Q3 earnings (late Oct to early Nov 2025), TGTX experienced high trading volumes and wide swings. The stock closed at $34.78 on Oct 31, 2025 [77], jumped to the mid-$36 range pre-market on Nov 3 after earnings [78], then fluctuated during regular hours (as discussed, it dipped to ~$31 before stabilizing). Such volatility can be attributed to traders digesting news and possibly options activity. From a technical perspective, the low-$30s have acted as a support level multiple times in 2025, while the $40-$45 zone is a resistance where the stock has struggled to sustain gains (likely due to investors locking in profits or valuation concerns up there). This range-bound trade could continue until a new catalyst propels the stock decisively one way or the other.
Analyst Ratings & Commentary: The Wall Street analyst community is largely positive on TG Therapeutics, though there is a range of opinions on the extent of upside. According to MarketBeat, in the last year 5 analysts have active ratings: 3 Buys and 2 Holds (no Sells) [79] [80]. The average 12-month price target is ~$48.75, which is ~55% above the current price [81]. Price targets span from a high of $60 to a low of $37 [82], reflecting differing views on how successfully TG will execute from here.
- The most bullish analysts emphasize Briumvi’s strong launch and long-term potential. For instance, H.C. Wainwright’s analyst Emily Bodnar initiated coverage on Oct 6, 2025 with a Buy rating and $60 target, citing optimism about the company’s future performance and strategy [83]. Her rationale likely centers on Briumvi’s revenue trajectory (believing it can become a blockbuster exceeding $1B/year globally) and TG’s pipeline that could add new revenue streams by late-decade. Similarly, B. Riley Securities’ Mayank Mamtani has been a long-time bull – in Sept 2025 he reiterated his Buy and nudged the target to $55 [84]. Mamtani expressed “sustained confidence” in TGTX’s execution, essentially signaling that each quarter’s results reinforce his thesis that Briumvi will continue to gain share and that TG’s management is delivering.
- Analysts with Hold or moderate views often acknowledge Briumvi’s success but raise caution on valuation and risks. For example, the lowest target of $37 (not publicly attributed in sources, but possibly from an analyst at a firm like JPMorgan or a smaller shop) suggests that at ~$35-36 the stock was near fair value in that view. Such analysts might argue that peak sales for Briumvi are already priced in, or they want to see more proof of pipeline progress. They may also point to competition – e.g., Ocrevus going generic later in the decade or novel MS treatments (like BTK inhibitors in trials by Sanofi and others) – as a threat to long-term growth, justifying a more cautious target. Additionally, concerns about TG being a one-product company weigh on some minds; until the pipeline delivers a second approved product, TG is heavily reliant on Briumvi’s fortunes.
- Consensus outlook: Despite some caution, the consensus leans clearly positive. The average ~$49 target implies analysts see substantial upside, and the fact that no analyst recommends selling indicates a belief that downside risk is limited unless something fundamentally changes. The consensus rating equates to “Moderate Buy/Outperform” [85]. In plain English, Wall Street expects TG to outperform the market, driven by above-average growth from Briumvi. Analyst models likely forecast Briumvi continuing to take MS market share in 2026-2027, reaching perhaps >$1B in annual sales by around 2027 (with contributions from Europe and potentially an indication expansion like NMO or myasthenia gravis if pursued). They also likely assign some value to the pipeline (e.g., probability-weighted value for subcutaneous Briumvi approval in 2028, etc.). GuruFocus’s internal fair value algorithm even suggests a much higher long-term value (est. ~$93 share) [86], but that should be taken with a grain of salt – it assumes historical multiples and growth trends that might not fully account for future risks.
Expert Commentary: Industry observers have noted TG Therapeutics as a rarity in biotech – a smaller company that has independently launched a drug and achieved significant sales quickly. This success has drawn comparisons to past biotech stories; for example, some compare TG to Biogen’s early days with its MS drug Avonex, or to Genmab (which partnered its CD20 antibody Arzerra but later built a successful business). Analysts on conference calls often compliment TG’s execution but probe on sustainability. On the Q3 call, Evercore ISI’s analyst asked about inventory dynamics and subcu plans, indicating interest in how demand is trending and the subcutaneous formulation timeline [87]. The responses indicated no channel stuffing (demand is real) and enthusiasm for the subcu program.
On the same call, J.P. Morgan’s analyst (hypothetical example) might have inquired about market share – TG’s team might point out that despite growth, Briumvi still has well under 20% market share in RMS, leaving plenty of room to grow by converting patients from older therapies. Pharma trade publications have also highlighted Briumvi’s momentum, often mentioning that TG’s sales in MS have exceeded initial expectations on Wall Street, and that TG is taking on pharma giants in this space with notable success.
Financial commentators, like those on Zacks or Seeking Alpha, generally echo the theme that TG Therapeutics’ upside is tied to Briumvi’s trajectory. For instance, a Zacks report after Q3 results noted that TG “surpassed estimates” and is on a strong growth trajectory thanks to Briumvi’s launch success, while cautioning that continued growth is needed to justify the valuation [88]. A Seeking Alpha contributor earlier in 2025 termed TG “a bright outlook, bolstered by Briumvi and upcoming trials”, but also flagged that shareholder returns could be volatile given the stock’s run-up and reliance on a single asset [89] [90].
All considered, the market narrative around TGTX is largely optimistic: TG is frequently cited as a potential mid-cap biotech success story if it can maintain MS market momentum and execute its pipeline. Analysts are watching metrics like Briumvi’s market share gains, refill rates (patients staying on therapy), new patient starts per quarter, and ex-US uptake to gauge how steep the revenue curve will go. They’re also eyeing 2026–2027 catalysts (trial readouts) which could validate the pipeline and open new revenue streams. In the next section, we’ll delve into these future catalysts and also the risks that could derail the bull case.
Forecast and Future Outlook
Looking ahead, TG Therapeutics faces the challenge of building on its early wins to create long-term shareholder value. The company’s future will depend on sustaining Briumvi’s growth, successfully advancing its pipeline, and navigating competitive and operational risks. Here we outline the key factors, catalysts, and risks that will shape TG’s story in 2026 and beyond:
Growth Drivers & Catalysts
- Briumvi Sales Ramp: The single most important factor for TG in the near-to-mid term is how far and fast Briumvi’s sales can grow in the MS market. The company’s raised guidance of ~$585M U.S. Briumvi revenue for 2025 [91] implies Q4 2025 sales around $170M (and full-year 2024 was ~$350M, for reference). Many analysts expect Briumvi can eventually achieve “blockbuster” status (>$1B annual sales) globally by 2026 or 2027. Upside catalysts for sales include: increasing penetration in first-line RMS (convincing doctors to use Briumvi in newly diagnosed patients, not just those switching from other meds), potential expansion to other indications (TG is exploring ublituximab in Myasthenia Gravis (MG) on a small scale [92], which if pursued formally could open a new market), and international launches gaining traction (e.g., Europe, where partner Neuraxpharm could drive significant uptake in 2026-27, and other markets). Additionally, real-world evidence and longer-term data (like the 6-year no progression stat) could persuade more neurologists and payers of Briumvi’s value, supporting broader adoption. If Briumvi’s quarterly sales continue climbing at double-digit % rates into 2026, it will reinforce the growth narrative and likely propel the stock higher.
- Subcutaneous Briumvi (UBL-SubQ): This is arguably the most anticipated pipeline catalyst. Pivotal trial data for subcutaneous Briumvi is expected in late 2026 or early 2027 [93] [94]. Success would be a game-changer: a positive outcome means TG can file for approval of the subQ formulation in 2027, potentially launching in 2028 as the first self-administered anti-CD20 for MS. This could significantly expand Briumvi’s usage – for example, some patients who dislike infusion visits might opt for a home injection, and it might increase patient adherence (staying on therapy). The subQ could also fortify Briumvi’s defense against competition like Kesimpta (which is also self-injected) by offering both options. Management has explicitly stated this could nearly double the market opportunity of Briumvi [95]. If the trial results show comparable efficacy/safety to IV and good patient experience, it would be a major catalyst in late 2026, likely well-received by the market. Conversely, if results are negative or delayed, that would remove a chunk of anticipated future value – so all eyes will be on this readout.
- One-Day Dosing (ENHANCE trial):Mid-2026 will bring results from the ENHANCE study testing a one-day infusion regimen [96]. This is a more incremental catalyst but still important. If TG can simplify IV Briumvi to a single infusion (instead of two spaced two weeks apart) without losing efficacy, it can market Briumvi as the most convenient IV MS therapy. That could attract more patients and make scheduling easier for infusion centers (a competitive advantage vs Ocrevus). We might see data by Q2 2026, and if positive, TG could file for a label change, leading to potential implementation of the new regimen by 2027. This isn’t as large as adding new patients, but it could improve patient retention and satisfaction, indirectly supporting sales. It’s also a relatively low-risk trial (just comparing dosing schedules), so success probability is high; failure would likely have minimal downside (Briumvi would just continue with the two-dose start).
- Pipeline Progress (Beyond Briumvi): While Briumvi is the core, TG’s long-term outlook will be bolstered if it can advance its other pipeline candidates:
- TG-1701 (BTK inhibitor): By 2026, we may see Phase 2 data or partnerships for TG-1701. If TG can demonstrate strong efficacy in certain B-cell cancers or find a partner to co-develop it, that would add a new value driver. The BTK field is crowded (with multiple approved drugs), but 1701 could differentiate on safety or combo potential. Any positive signal – say, a trial showing activity in ibrutinib-resistant CLL – could be a catalyst.
- Azer-Cel (CAR-T for MS): This is very early, so likely a longer-term (post-2027) story. However, if TG shares any initial findings in late 2025 or 2026 (even case studies of a few progressive MS patients seeing benefit), it could generate excitement about a revolutionary approach to MS. Investors might start to factor in some value if it looks promising. Conversely, CAR-T is high risk; setbacks here wouldn’t be surprising and would be considered in the context of still being a bonus, not a core expectation.
- TG-1801 (bispecific): Likewise early, but maybe by 2026 we get a sense if this drug is moving to Phase 2. If yes, and if any efficacy is seen in lymphoma, it could attract interest (CD47 is a hot target in immunotherapy). A partnership or out-licensing could even be on the table to let a larger oncology player run with it, which would bring in non-dilutive capital.
- Financial Execution: From an investor’s standpoint, TG’s use of its growing cash flows will be important. The current buyback is one strategy to return value. Another possible catalyst would be if TG initiated a small dividend in a few years (less likely, but not unheard of for profitable biotechs – though usually they reinvest in R&D). More realistically, TG could pursue strategic acquisitions or partnerships to broaden its portfolio. Weiss indicated they’re being patient about deals [97], but the landscape could present opportunities (for instance, if another MS therapy or autoimmune asset is available, TG might use its stock or cash to acquire it, accelerating growth). A smart bolt-on acquisition that expands the pipeline or product line could be viewed positively.
- Macro factors: E.g., if overall biotech sentiment improves or interest rates decline (making future cash flows more valuable), growth stocks like TGTX could see multiple expansion. While not a company-specific catalyst, a rising tide in biotech or positive MS industry news (like competitor failures, which would funnel patients to Briumvi) could boost the stock.
Risks & Downside Factors
No investment is without risk, and TG Therapeutics does have several to consider for a balanced view:
- Competition in MS: The RMS treatment arena is fiercely competitive and evolving. Ocrevus (the incumbent IV CD20) still holds the lion’s share of the market and has a well-established prescriber base. Kesimpta (subcutaneous ofatumumab) is growing, offering convenience with a similar mechanism. Other approved drugs (e.g. Tysabri, Vumerity, etc.) provide alternatives. Looking ahead, new mechanisms are in development: for example, BTK inhibitors for MS (Sanofi’s tolebrutinib and Merck’s evobrutinib) are in Phase 3 and, if successful, could emerge by 2025–2026 as oral treatments for RMS. These could cut into the use of anti-CD20s if they show strong efficacy without infusion. Additionally, high-efficacy generics/biosimilars will appear – Ocrevus’ patent expires later this decade, meaning biosimilar ocrelizumab could come by 2028-2030, potentially undercutting on price. TG will need to solidify Briumvi’s market position before that wave hits, perhaps using the subcutaneous version and price strategies. Competition is a constant threat and “CD20 class remains intense” [98], so TG must continue to differentiate Briumvi on efficacy, convenience, and cost. If at any point Briumvi’s uptake slows significantly (due to competitor moves or market saturation), it would hurt the growth story and likely the stock.
- Regulatory/Clinical Hurdles: While Briumvi is approved, expanding its label or new products require regulatory success. The subcutaneous Briumvi and ENHANCE trials, while promising, could face issues – e.g., subQ could hypothetically show more injection-site reactions or slightly less efficacy; ENHANCE might or might not meet bioequivalence. Any delay or failure in these trials would remove expected catalysts and could drop the stock (since some of the valuation likely assumes eventual success). Likewise, pipeline drugs TG-1701, Azer-Cel, etc., face high attrition risk (especially in oncology, where many drugs fail in Phase 2/3). A notable clinical failure (for instance, if subcutaneous ublituximab unexpectedly doesn’t meet its endpoint) would not only diminish future prospects but could also raise questions about management’s development capabilities. On the regulatory side, manufacturing or safety issues could arise – for example, if any safety signal emerges with Briumvi (so far so good, but long-term use of any immunosuppressant warrants vigilance). Regulatory scrutiny on TG’s promotional practices or any changes in healthcare laws (like drug pricing reforms) could also indirectly affect the company.
- Operational and Production Risks: As a growing commercial company, TG must manage manufacturing and supply of Briumvi. So far, there have been no reported issues meeting demand. However, manufacturing biologics is complex; any production hiccup or quality issue could lead to shortages that dent sales and reputation. The company uses contract manufacturers for drug supply – ensuring those partnerships run smoothly is key. Additionally, scaling up for global supply as they enter new markets will test operations. Economic conditions (like inflation in raw materials, supply chain disruptions) could impact costs or supply reliability [99], though those are industry-wide challenges.
- Financial Risks: TG is profitable now on an adjusted basis, but if for any reason sales disappoint or expenses spike, it could return to losses. Management is choosing to spend on R&D and also on buybacks; if cash flows don’t grow as expected, there’s a risk that aggressive buybacks could strain the balance sheet. However, with $178M cash on hand [100] and rising revenues, bankruptcy risk is very low at this point. Instead, the financial risk is more about valuation – the stock, even after the pullback, is not “cheap” in traditional metrics: at ~$35/share with ~160M shares, that’s ~$5.6B market cap, which is roughly 9.3x 2025 sales (using $600M guidance) and a higher multiple on earnings (since true net income excluding the tax benefit might be ~$50–$100M for 2025, making a PE in the dozens). Bulls argue those multiples will rapidly shrink as sales and profits grow, but if growth falters, the stock could de-rate. The biotech sector is also known for swings in investor sentiment – a risk factor that’s hard to predict but can affect TG irrespective of its performance (e.g., risk-off market moods can pull down high-growth biotech stocks broadly).
- Concentration & Key Person Risk: TG’s fortunes are tied overwhelmingly to one product (Briumvi). This concentration means any issue with Briumvi (be it a safety finding, a better mousetrap from a competitor, or even something like a change in treatment paradigms in MS) would have an outsized impact. Diversification via the pipeline will take years; until then, the company’s eggs are largely in one basket. Additionally, TG’s leadership, especially CEO Weiss, is closely associated with its success. If any key executive were to depart unexpectedly, it could shake investor confidence. There’s no indication of that, but in biotech, visionary leadership often carries a premium, so this is a subtle risk.
- Market Volatility and Shareholder Dilution: As a mid-cap biotech, TGTX can be more volatile than larger pharma stocks. Broader market swings, biotech funding cycles, or sector rotations can cause significant short-term moves unrelated to fundamentals [101]. Also, while TG doesn’t need to raise capital now, if they did decide to (for example, to fund a major acquisition or if expenses rose), an equity offering could dilute shareholders – though given the buyback stance, this seems unlikely near-term. Nonetheless, investors should watch the share count and any signals of capital raises.
Outlook Summary
Balancing the above, the outlook for TG Therapeutics remains promising but with important caveats. On the upside, the company has established real commercial momentum – a feat that most biotechs aspire to but few achieve. Briumvi addresses a large and growing market (relapsing MS) and is on track to become a cornerstone therapy in that space if current trends hold. The financial transformation (from losses to profits) gives TG optionality: it can reinvest in innovation, reward shareholders, or both. The pipeline, while early, contains opportunities that could keep TG’s growth engine running well into the next decade (e.g., subcutaneous formulation in 2028, new indications or products in 2027–2029).
However, investors should remain mindful that execution is key. TG must continue to execute on Briumvi’s launch – meaning hitting sales targets, educating physicians, expanding reimbursement coverage (so far insurers have been on board due to Briumvi’s value proposition), and preparing for eventual competition from biosimilars. They also must execute on trials – bringing the subQ and dosing trials to successful completion, and advancing pipeline assets wisely (knowing when to partner or when to invest heavily). Any stumble in execution could be costly in terms of stock value, given how much optimism is priced in.
For now, analysts and industry experts largely expect upside. If one takes the average Wall Street price target (~$48) [102], it suggests that within 12 months – perhaps as 2025 closes out and 2026 begins – the stock could re-test its highs, assuming continued good news flow. Catalysts such as the mid-2026 ENHANCE data and late-2026 subQ data are likely the next major inflection points fundamentally. In the interim, quarterly earnings will serve as check-ins on Briumvi’s trajectory. Any quarter where sales markedly beat or miss expectations could move the stock accordingly.
From a long-term investor perspective, one might view TGTX as a growth biotech with a solid revenue base – somewhat de-risked compared to pre-revenue biotechs, yet still offering growth akin to a tech company if Briumvi keeps gaining share. The risks, especially competitive dynamics in MS, are not trivial, but TG has shown nimbleness (e.g., focusing on subQ to preempt competition).
In conclusion, TG Therapeutics presents a compelling but nuanced investment case: the upside potential is driven by Briumvi’s ongoing “boom” and pipeline catalysts that could unlock new markets, while the downside risks hinge on execution and competitive pressures in a challenging therapeutic landscape. Investors should watch upcoming milestones closely – TG’s story in 2024–2025 was about proving it could launch a drug; its story in 2026–2027 will be about expanding the franchise and defending its turf. A balanced view would credit management for impressive achievements to date, yet remain vigilant about the hurdles on the road ahead.
Sources: TG Therapeutics Q3 2025 earnings release and conference call [103] [104]; GuruFocus/StockTitan financial summaries [105] [106]; Analyst reports and price target data [107] [108]; Company investor presentations and press releases for pipeline updates [109] [110]; Industry news on MS therapies and market trends [111]. All information is current as of November 3, 2025.
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