Tilray Brands (TLRY) on November 23, 2025: Stock Under $1, Fresh AI Trading Signals, and a Tug-of-War Between Fundamentals and Regulation

Published: November 23, 2025

Tilray Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: TLRY; TSX: TLRY) is back in focus today as new AI-driven trading signals, updated valuation models, and recent analyst forecasts collide with a volatile share price that’s again trading under $1.

TLRY stock today: trading under $1 after a bruising week

As of this weekend, Tilray Brands’ U.S.-listed stock is trading around $0.91 per share, with Friday’s official close at $0.91 on the Nasdaq. ^[1]

Market cap: roughly $1.0–1.3 billion, depending on the data source and intraday price. ^[2]
52‑week high: about $2.32, reached in early October on post-earnings and cannabis-reform optimism. ^[3]

Over just the past week of trading (Nov. 17–21), TLRY slid from about $1.03 to $0.91, a decline of roughly 12%, marking five straight down days and leaving the stock about 56% below its 52‑week high. ^[4]

Yet zoom out and the picture looks different: a recent analysis published via Nasdaq notes that Tilray stock has still rallied around 110% over the last six months, powered by hopes for U.S. cannabis reform and a burst of speculative interest in the sector. ^[5]

This mix of short-term pain and medium-term gains sets the stage for today’s new trading and valuation updates.

New today (Nov 23, 2025): AI trading plan flags key levels for TLRY

The most concrete TLRY-specific news dated today, November 23, 2025 comes from Stock Traders Daily, which published a fresh Advanced Equity Analysis” for Tilray (TLRY:CA). ^[6]

Key points from the report:

The firm’s long-term trading plan suggests:
- A potential buy zone near $1.12, with a technical target around $1.47 and a tight stop a cent lower.
- A potential short zone near $1.47, targeting a move back toward $1.12 with a stop just above that resistance region. ^[7]
Their AI-based model currently rates TLRY:CA as Weak” in the near‑, mid‑, and long‑term time frames, highlighting that any triggers may have already come.” ^[8]

This is purely a technical roadmap, not a comment on fundamentals. With TLRY trading below the suggested long entry zone, the note effectively frames the low-$1s to mid-$1s band as a key battleground for traders rather than long-term investors.

Important: These levels are Stock Traders Daily’s model outputs, not guarantees. This article is not investment advice and is for informational and news purposes only.

Valuation update: one model calls TLRY deeply overvalued”

On the fundamental side, valueinvesting.io pushed an update today that has caught attention because of how extreme it looks on paper. ^[9]

According to its Peter Lynch-style fair value model:

Fair value for TLRY (as of 2025‑11‑23):–$7.67 per share
Current price used:$0.91
Implied upside”: about –946%, which the site explicitly interprets as TLRY not being a good investment under its framework. ^[10]

The negative fair value mainly stems from:

Strongly negative trailing earnings (EPS around –$1.53) and
Extremely volatile multi‑year net income trends. ^[11]

Even the site warns that Peter Lynch fair value becomes unreliable when EPS is negative, which is clearly the case here. Still, it underscores a central message: many traditional value models don’t know what to do with a highly volatile, loss-making cannabis stock.

What analysts say now: Hold” consensus but big upside on paper

Despite the harsh view from one valuation formula, Wall Street coverage is more nuanced:

MarketBeat’s latest update (page timestamped Nov. 23, 2025) shows:
- Consensus rating:Hold, based on 7 analysts.
- Rating mix: 2 Sell, 3 Hold, 2 Buy.
- Average 12‑month price target:$2.00, implying about 121% upside from $0.91. ^[12]
StockAnalysis.com, using a smaller analyst set, shows:
- Average rating:Buy”, from 3 analysts.
- Average target:$1.50, or about 66% upside from the same price. ^[13]
A recent Zacks piece, published via Nasdaq on Nov. 18, assigns TLRY a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), highlighting improving profitability and discounted valuation versus peers. ^[14]

Taken together, analyst sentiment is cautious but not outright bearish:

Ratings: clustered around Hold with a slight positive tilt.
Targets: generally fall between $1.50 and $2.00, well above the current trading level, but those targets also assume that recent operational improvements prove sustainable.

Fundamentals in 2025: first profitable quarter in years

Underneath the roller-coaster stock price, Tilray’s latest reported quarter offered some hard, positive numbers.

On October 9, 2025, Tilray reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 results (quarter ended August 31, 2025). Highlights from the company’s release and third‑party summaries: ^[15]

Net revenue: about $209.5 million, up 5% year over year – a record Q1 for the company.
Net income:$1.5 million, versus a $34.7 million loss in the prior‑year quarter – Tilray’s first positive bottom line in years.
Adjusted EBITDA:$10.2 million, up 9%.
Cash position: roughly $264.8 million in cash; net debt trimmed to around $4 million.
Margins:
- Overall gross margin slipped from 30% to 27%.
- Cannabis gross margin fell from 40% to 36%.
- Beverage margin declined from 41% to 38%.

Zacks and other commentators called it a profitability turnaround” but flagged the margin compression as something investors will need to track in coming quarters. ^[16]

Management maintained guidance for fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $62–72 million, putting a lot of pressure on future quarters to keep delivering cost discipline and growth. ^[17]

Strategy moves in November: investor deck, pricing, and brand building

While there were no new corporate press releases on Nov. 23 itself, several recent November announcements are still shaping how investors interpret today’s trading and analyst commentary.

1. Updated investor presentation (Nov. 17)

On November 17, Tilray released an updated investor presentation that doubled down on its identity as a diversified CPG platform spanning beverage, cannabis, and wellness. ^[18]

The deck and accompanying press release emphasize:

A house of brands” approach across more than 40 brands in 20+ countries.
A strategy focused on:
- margin improvement,
- disciplined capital allocation, and
- global expansion in North America, Europe, and select international markets. ^[19]

The messaging is clear: Tilray wants to be seen less as a single cannabis grower and more as a multi-category branded CPG company.

2. Tilray Medical broadens compassionate pricing” (Nov. 4)

Earlier in the month, Tilray Medical, the company’s medical division, raised the income threshold for its compassionate pricing program in Canada to C$65,000, up from C$32,500. ^[20]

The update:

Expands access to discounted medical cannabis for patients with lower and middle incomes,
Maintains dedicated programs for seniors, veterans, first responders, frontline workers, and pediatric patients. ^[21]

This move supports Tilray’s brand as a patient-centric medical provider and may help defend share in a competitive medical cannabis market.

3. Beverage brands stay busy: Redhook 81 & Pub Beer x Big Buck Hunter

Tilray’s craft beer and beverage portfolio has also been active:

Redhook 81 launch (Oct. 23): Tilray’s Redhook Brewing unveiled Redhook 81, a 4.2% ABV light lager positioned as a cold one for quittin’ time,” accompanied by a sweepstakes running into late November. ^[22]
Pub Beer x Big Buck Hunter (Nov. 13): The Pub Beer brand (part of Tilray’s 10 Barrel Brewing) teamed up with arcade classic Big Buck Hunter for a Cheap Fun Hunting SZN” campaign featuring a limited‑edition Hunter Orange” can and a sweepstakes for a custom arcade machine valued at over $10,000. ^[23]

These initiatives highlight how Tilray is leveraging heritage craft beer brands and playful marketing to build out its non-cannabis revenue streams in the U.S.

Regulatory backdrop: from Trump CBD boost to hemp crackdown — and Tilray’s response

Tilray’s recent volatility can’t be understood without the policy whiplash hitting the cannabis and hemp space.

Trump’s CBD endorsement and the September spike

On September 29, Reuters reported that cannabis stocks soared after President Donald Trump posted a video praising the potential benefits of cannabidiol (CBD) for seniors. Tilray’s U.S.-listed shares jumped about 42% in a single session, part of a broader sector surge. ^[24]

The rally intensified expectations that:

Marijuana might be reclassified under U.S. federal law, and
Hemp-derived products could see friendlier regulatory treatment.

Government spending bill hits hemp-derived THC

That optimism has since been dented by a new U.S. government funding bill that will ban most intoxicating hemp-derived THC products, including many beverages and edibles companies have used as a workaround to enter the U.S. market. ^[25]

Motley Fool’s recent piece framed this as a major risk for Tilray, noting that the stock has already given back more than half of its October gains and warning about the possibility of further downside if regulatory momentum continues in the wrong” direction. ^[26]

Tilray publicly fights back on hemp policy (Nov. 11)

In response, Tilray issued a November 11 press release titled Tilray Brands Condemns Misguided Prohibitionist Measures and Champions Responsible Hemp Regulations that Keep Consumers Safe and Businesses Thriving.” ^[27]

In it, the company:

Criticizes prohibitionist language in the funding bill as misguided and out of step with consumer demand.
Backs bipartisan efforts to create clear, taxed pathways for hemp-derived THC with safety standards, rather than outright bans. ^[28]

That stance positions Tilray as a policy advocate for regulated hemp products, not just a market participant.

How all of this frames TLRY on November 23, 2025

Putting today’s pieces together:

Price & technicals
- TLRY is back under $1 and down double digits on the week, even after a six‑month rally of ~110% from depressed levels. ^[29]
- Fresh AI-based trading plans from Stock Traders Daily flag the low-$1s as a key support/resistance band, with overall technical ratings marked Weak.” ^[30]
Fundamentals
- Tilray just delivered a small but symbolically important profit, record Q1 revenue, and a much stronger balance sheet. ^[31]
- However, gross margins are under pressure, and full-year EBITDA guidance will require consistent execution to hit.
Valuation
- Conventional value models like Peter Lynch fair value spit out nonsensical negative fair values, underscoring how hard TLRY is to value with traditional tools. ^[32]
- Analysts, by contrast, sit around Hold with average price targets roughly 65–120% above today’s price, reflecting both upside potential and very high risk. ^[33]
Narrative & regulation
- The stock remains a leveraged bet on cannabis policy: it surged on Trump’s CBD message, then slumped as lawmakers moved to re‑tighten hemp rules. ^[34]
- Tilray is actively lobbying for smart hemp regulation”, signaling that its strategy increasingly hinges on navigating and influencing U.S. law, not just selling more product. ^[35]

For news readers and potential investors, the takeaway on November 23, 2025 is that Tilray sits at the intersection of:

Improving financial execution (first profitable quarter, strengthened balance sheet),
Aggressive brand expansion in beverages and medical cannabis, and
Extraordinary regulatory and market volatility that keeps the stock whipsawing between euphoria and pessimism.

Given this backdrop, TLRY remains a high‑risk, high‑volatility cannabis name where short‑term price action may be driven as much by tweets, bills, and AI trading signals as by quarterly earnings.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and journalistic purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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