Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM) goes into the new week sitting at the center of the AI chip boom, geopolitical tension, and a fresh round of headlines about trade secrets and export controls. Here’s what traders and long‑term investors should know before the bell on Monday, November 24, 2025.
1. Where TSM Stock Stands Heading Into Monday
TSM’s American depositary receipts (ADRs) closed Friday, November 21, at about $275.06, down roughly 0.9% on the day, after trading in a wide intraday range of $266.82 to $278.69. Over the last 52 weeks, the stock has swung between about $134 and $311, so it’s currently trading well off the highs but more than double the lows. Investing
Despite recent choppiness, TSM stock is still up around 38–45% over the past year, driven largely by the AI data‑center build‑out and demand from customers like Nvidia, Apple, AMD, and Broadcom. Yahoo Finance
On fundamentals, TSM currently trades at about 28x trailing earnings, with a PEG ratio near 1.0, a beta around 1.3, and a market cap around $1.4 trillion. MarketBeat Those numbers tell you two things:
- The market is paying a premium for TSM’s position at the heart of AI.
- But that premium is not wildly out of line with its growth profile.
2. AI Boom: Record Q3 Earnings Still Define the Story
If you’re looking at TSM ahead of Monday, the starting point is still its record Q3 2025 results:
- Q3 revenue: about $33.1 billion, up roughly 30–41% year over year and about 6–10% sequentially, depending on whether you look at local currency or USD. Manufacturing Dive
- Net income: up around 39% year over year, with EPS beating analyst estimates (roughly $2.92 vs. $2.59 consensus). Taipei Times
- Margins: gross margin pushing around 59–60%, at the upper end of management’s long‑term target range. Financial Times
Management explicitly tied this surge to “very strong” AI demand, particularly high‑performance computing (HPC) and data‑center chips. Several breakdowns of the quarter show HPC/AI‑related revenue leading growth, with some estimates putting that segment above 50% year‑on‑year growth. Manufacturing Dive
Looking ahead:
- TSMC guided Q4 2025 revenue to about $32.2–33.4 billion, again driven by AI chips. english.cw.com.tw
- Full‑year 2025 revenue growth guidance has been raised to the “mid‑30s” percent range in USD, up from around 30%. AP News
- Capex is now guided at $40–42 billion, with ~70% going into advanced process technologies that serve AI and high‑performance computing workloads. Morningstar
Takeaway for Monday: The earnings backdrop is still firmly bullish. Short‑term dips in TSM are happening against a backdrop of record sales, strong margins, and raised guidance.
3. U.S. Expansion and the $165 Billion Arizona Bet
In March, TSMC announced it intends to expand its total U.S. investment plan to about $165 billion, including three fabs, advanced packaging plants and an R&D center. TSMC
That long‑term commitment was reaffirmed just days ago:
- CEO C.C. Wei reiterated at an industry event that TSMC is “sticking with” its Arizona expansion as part of that multi‑fab U.S. build‑out. Bloomberg
- Wei and former chairman Mark Liu also received the Robert N. Noyce Award, the semiconductor industry’s top honor, underscoring how central TSMC has become to U.S.–Taiwan tech cooperation. Focus Taiwan – CNA English News
This expansion sits inside a complex political backdrop:
- The U.S. government is pushing to re‑shore advanced chip manufacturing and reduce reliance on Taiwan, even as TSMC continues to dominate leading‑edge nodes. Financial Times
- A 20% U.S. tariff on most Taiwanese exports (excluding chips) adds noise for Taiwan’s broader economy but leaves TSM’s core shipments largely untouched—for now. Financial Times
What matters for Monday: Any new comments on the Arizona fabs, U.S. subsidy negotiations, or changes to “America First” manufacturing policies could move sentiment in either direction. But as of this weekend, management is doubling down on the U.S. build‑out, not backing away.
4. Export Controls, China, and the Nanjing Question
Regulation is one of the biggest overhangs on TSM’s medium‑term story.
On the U.S. side:
- The U.S. Commerce Department’s “AI Diffusion Rule” (announced in January) tightened controls on advanced AI chips and compute exports to China, using a global licensing framework that also affects foundry players like TSMC. Congress
- Washington is set to revoke TSMC’s Validated End User (VEU) status for its Nanjing fab at the end of 2025, which means no more blanket approvals for certain chip shipments to China; licenses will need to be granted case by case. Notebookcheck
On the Taiwan side:
- Taiwan is preparing to tighten its own export controls on dual‑use technologies, including advanced semiconductor equipment and some high‑end tech like quantum computing. Reuters
And from China:
- New Chinese rare‑earth export controls have raised speculative fears that TSMC’s ability to sell chips to U.S. customers could eventually be constrained if materials supply is disrupted, though this remains a tail‑risk narrative rather than an immediate operational crisis. Wccftech
For Monday’s open: There’s no single “event” on November 24 linked to these rules, but the regulatory backdrop is a constant source of headline risk. Any weekend or pre‑market news about export licenses, sanctions, or new controls could create a gap up or down in TSM.
5. New Overhang: Investigation Into an Ex‑TSMC Executive at Intel
A very fresh storyline: Taiwanese prosecutors have opened an investigation into Wei‑Jen Lo, a retired senior TSMC executive who recently joined Intel, on suspicion he may have taken advanced process technology information with him. Reuters
Key points:
- Lo previously played a key role in TSMC’s 5nm to 2nm process development and later joined Intel in a senior R&D role. Reuters
- Authorities are probing whether any proprietary TSMC data was improperly transferred. No charges have been filed, and both TSMC and Intel have declined to comment in detail so far. Reuters
- Intel CEO Lip‑Bu Tan has publicly denied that Intel is using stolen trade secrets, stressing that the company respects intellectual property and calling the allegations “rumor and speculation.” The Economic Times
Rumors have also suggested Lo might help Intel win orders from some U.S. customers currently using TSM’s Arizona fab, or to steer advanced packaging business toward Intel. Analysts remain skeptical that one executive could materially shift customer loyalties or overcome process differences, at least in the short term. Tom’s Hardware
Why it matters for TSM stock Monday:
- It’s primarily a reputational and regulatory risk story right now, not an earnings story.
- Any escalation—like formal charges, civil suits, or comments from major customers—could spark volatility, but the base case is months of slow‑moving legal and regulatory updates rather than an immediate shock.
6. Macro Pulse: Taiwan Export Boom Meets Slowing Monthly Growth
Broad demand indicators around TSM are still strong:
- Taiwan’s export orders are on track to hit a record in 2025, potentially above $700 billion, with October orders up about 25% year over year and tech/semiconductor products leading the gains. AI and high‑performance computing demand are major drivers. Reuters
However, a closely watched datapoint for TSM specifically:
- October 2025 sales set a new monthly record of around NT$367.5 billion (~$11.9 billion), but the growth rate slowed to about 17% year on year, the softest in more than 18 months. Some analysts see this as early evidence that the AI hardware boom is normalizing, at least at the margin. Barron’s
The nuance: one month doesn’t make a cycle. Several analysts have cautioned against overreacting to a single month’s number, noting that order timing, product mix and customer inventory management can all distort the monthly series. Barron’s
For Monday: If sentiment continues to oscillate between “AI super‑cycle” and “AI is peaking,” expect TSM to trade with the broader AI complex—think Nvidia, AMD and AI infrastructure names—rather than purely on company‑specific news.
7. What Wall Street and Big Money Are Saying About TSM
Analyst ratings remain broadly bullish:
- Across several aggregators, TSMC holds an average rating of “Strong Buy”, with a 12‑month price target around $370–372, implying about 30–35% upside from current levels. StockAnalysis
- Recent notes from firms like Barclays, Needham, and Susquehanna all carry buy/overweight/positive ratings and higher price objectives, citing TSMC’s dominant position in advanced nodes and AI. Quiver Quantitative
That said, a few voices are growing more cautious:
- Some analysts and commentators argue it may be “time to take some profits” after TSM’s ~40–45% rally, pointing to decelerating EPS growth into 2026 and the risk of AI expectations getting ahead of fundamentals. Seeking Alpha
- Others call TSM one of the top bargain large‑cap growth names, noting that its forward P/E near the low‑20s on 2026 earnings still looks reasonable given mid‑30s revenue growth and a near‑monopoly on leading‑edge manufacturing. The Motley Fool
Institutional flows are mixed rather than one‑sided:
- Some funds have trimmed their TSM stakes, including Segall Bryant & Hamill and Stevens Capital. MarketBeat
- Others have boosted or initiated positions, such as American Century, Journey Strategic Wealth, and Prudential PLC, reflecting continued institutional interest. MarketBeat
Net‑net, Wall Street still sees TSM as a core AI infrastructure winner, but disagreement is growing about how much of that future is already priced into the stock.
8. Dividends, Key Dates and Near‑Term Catalysts
If you’re planning around income or upcoming headlines, a few dates matter:
- Next ex‑dividend date for the ADRs:December 11, 2025, tied to a ~US$0.83 dividend per ADR (about NT$5 per common share for 2Q25). Tsmc
- Next monthly sales release (November 2025 revenue): expected on or around December 10, 2025, following TSMC’s typical calendar and third‑party calendars tracking its sales releases. Tsmc
- TSMC 2025 Europe OIP Ecosystem Forum in Amsterdam: scheduled for November 25, 2025, which may bring incremental commentary on 3nm and 2nm roadmaps, partners, and design ecosystem—useful context even if not a classic “stock‑moving” event. TSMC
For Monday specifically, there is no scheduled investor day, earnings release, or ex‑div event for TSM. That means:
- The stock is likely to be driven by macro factors (yields, dollar, risk sentiment) and sector moves in AI/semis, plus any new headlines around the export‑control and IP‑investigation stories.
9. Valuation, Balance Sheet and Risk Check Before the Bell
A quick pre‑market checklist:
Strengths
- Dominant technology position: TSMC still manufactures the vast majority of the world’s most advanced chips (sub‑7nm) and is leading on 3nm and next‑gen nodes, including future N2 and A16 processes. American Compass
- Robust balance sheet: quick ratio ~2.15, current ratio ~2.37, and low debt‑to‑equity around 0.20, giving TSM firepower to keep investing through cycles. MarketBeat
- High margins & pricing power: gross margin near 60% even amid massive overseas expansion, suggesting strong pricing power with key customers. Financial Times
- Secular AI tailwinds: management has repeatedly said AI demand remains stronger than expected for 2025 and beyond, and Q3 numbers back that up. Financial Times
Risks
- Valuation & sentiment: after a near‑40%+ run, even good news can be shrugged off, while any hint of slowing AI orders can hit the stock hard. Barron’s
- Geopolitics: cross‑Strait tension, U.S. tariffs, and export‑control regimes all sit in the background. Any surprise escalation can have an outsized impact on TSM versus other semis. Financial Times
- Regulation & China exposure: Nanjing license uncertainty and tighter AI export rules make the China piece of TSM’s business more complex, even if AI‑focused growth is skewed to the U.S. and other regions. Notebookcheck
- IP & talent risk: the Lo investigation is a reminder that retaining top talent and protecting trade secrets will be an ongoing challenge as Intel, Samsung, and others fight to close the gap. The Economic Times
10. How to Think About TSM Going Into Monday (Not Financial Advice)
Heading into the November 24 open, TSM looks like a classic high‑quality growth leader in a volatile, headline‑driven niche:
- Short‑term: Expect the stock to move with AI sentiment, Treasury yields, and any new headlines on export controls or the Intel/Lo investigation. With no company‑specific event on Monday, macro and sector flows are likely to dominate.
- Medium‑term (months): The real test will be whether TSM’s monthly sales releases and 2026 guidance confirm that AI‑driven demand can stay in the mid‑30% growth range even as the first leg of the AI buildout matures.
- Long‑term: If TSM successfully executes its $165B+ global expansion, keeps its technology lead in 2nm and beyond, and navigates geopolitics without major disruption, the current multiple may prove reasonable—or even cheap—compared with its strategic importance to the global economy.
As always, this overview is for information only, not investment advice. Before making any decision on TSM stock—whether Monday morning or later—consider your time horizon, risk tolerance, and overall portfolio, and, if needed, speak with a qualified financial adviser.
