TORONTO — The Canada stock market entered the new trading week on Monday, November 24, 2025, with a cautious but slightly positive tone as investors balanced optimism over potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts against lingering worries about AI-driven tech valuations, weak oil prices and a soft Canadian dollar.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index opened around 0.1% higher near 30,220, led by mining shares, after closing Friday at 30,160.65, its best level in over a week and up 0.85% on the day. [1] Early real‑time quotes, however, showed the index slipping back toward flat, trading close to 30,150 by mid‑morning as energy and some rate‑sensitive names gave up initial gains. [2]
The small‑cap S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index also staged a rebound on Friday, ending at 854.76, up 0.66%, after a volatile stretch for junior miners and early‑stage resource names. [3]
Below is a full look at what’s driving Canadian stocks today — from Fed expectations and inflation to sector moves and stock‑specific catalysts.
1. Where the Canada stock market stands today
TSX: holding the line after a volatile November
- Friday’s backdrop: The S&P/TSX Composite gained 0.85% on November 21 to 30,160.65, trimming what had been a much steeper weekly loss to roughly half a percent. [4]
- Today’s open: Futures on the S&P/TSX were essentially flat before the bell, as investors weighed fresh rate‑cut speculation and mixed commodity prices. [5]
- Early trading: Reuters reported the index opening modestly higher around 30,220, led by gains in mining shares, before easing back toward unchanged levels. [6]
For context, the index is still trading below its early‑November intramonth high near 30,860, but comfortably above the 29,500s seen at the month’s low. [7]
Small caps and TSXV
Junior resource and growth names remain more volatile:
- The TSX Venture Composite closed Friday at 854.76, up 0.66% after a sharp mid‑month sell‑off. [8]
- Live data this morning show the TSXV hovering near that level, reflecting tentative risk appetite for early‑stage miners and speculative stories. [9]
2. Global backdrop: Fed rate‑cut bets and AI jitters
Wall Street: early green as December cut odds rise
U.S. markets set a supportive tone for global risk assets:
- At Monday’s open, the Dow Jones gained about 0.23%, the S&P 500 rose roughly 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped close to 1%, as traders leaned into the idea of a potential Fed rate cut in December. [10]
- Fed officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, have signaled openness to further easing if growth and inflation data justify it, helping futures markets price roughly “coin‑flip” odds of a December cut after weeks of volatility. [11]
For the Canada stock market, easier U.S. policy is a double‑edged sword: it can support global equity valuations, but it also pulls money toward higher‑growth U.S. tech, leaving Canadian indices — more heavily weighted to financials and resources — lagging in pure performance terms.
AI spending worries still hanging over tech
Last week, the TSX slumped to an 11‑day low as investors questioned whether massive corporate spending on artificial intelligence can deliver the profits many valuations assume. [12]
- A Reuters report highlighted that concerns over an “AI capex bubble” weighed heavily on both technology and materials stocks in Canada, mirroring pressure in U.S. markets. [13]
- On Monday, those worries remained in the background as Michael Burry, the famed “Big Short” investor, launched a paid markets newsletter in which he again warned about overheating in AI‑linked names, likening Nvidia to past tech‑bubble leaders. [14]
This AI anxiety matters for the TSX because:
- It directly hits tech hardware and chip‑supply names.
- It can also drag on materials (copper, lithium, silver) if investors fear a slowdown in AI‑related infrastructure build‑out.
3. Commodities check: oil soft, gold resilient — a mixed signal for TSX
Oil prices: a headwind for Canadian energy stocks
Oil remains a key driver for the commodity‑heavy TSX:
- WTI crude has been trading just under US$60 per barrel, weighed down by concerns over oversupply and soft global demand, as well as tentative hopes for a Ukraine peace deal that could ease some sanctions‑related constraints. [15]
- Recent commentary from macro analysts points to an expected surplus into late 2025 and 2026 as producers both in and outside OPEC keep output elevated, contributing to the weaker price trend. [16]
Soft oil prices tend to:
- Hurt Canadian integrated producers and oil sands operators.
- Pressure the loonie, since energy is a major export.
- Partly offset inflation pressures, which can help consumers and some rate‑sensitive sectors.
Gold: firm prices support Canadian miners
Gold is starting the week on a steadier footing:
- Spot gold has been holding slightly above US$4,100/oz, with traders balancing expectations for Fed cuts against a still‑firm U.S. dollar. [17]
- Investing.com notes that bullion is consolidating after a strong year, with markets watching this week’s U.S. data deluge (retail sales, producer prices) that could swing rate expectations and, by extension, gold. [18]
For Canadian gold and silver miners listed in Toronto, including senior names and a cluster of juniors on the TSX Venture Exchange, sustained high gold prices are a tailwind, even as cost inflation and political risk remain challenges.
4. Canada’s macro picture: inflation cools, but BoC still cautious
Inflation: closer to the 2% target
Fresh data released last week showed headline Canadian inflation easing to 2.2% year‑on‑year in October, down from 2.4% in September. [19]
Key details:
- Gasoline prices fell 9.4% from a year earlier, a larger decline than in September, thanks to cheaper winter fuel blends and lower crude prices. [20]
- Excluding gasoline, inflation ran at 2.6%, indicating that underlying price pressures remain a bit above the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. [21]
RBC Economics and other analysts describe the picture as “moderating, but still sticky”: total inflation is drifting near 2%, while core measures hover closer to 2½–3%, keeping the BoC cautious about cutting too aggressively. [22]
Growth and jobs: slow but positive
On growth and employment:
- StatsCan’s latest release shows CPI slowing even as producer prices remain elevated, particularly in metals — an important point for Canada’s mining sector. [23]
- A Reuters report noted that Canada added 66,600 net jobs in October, all part‑time, pushing the unemployment rate down to 6.9% from 7.1%. Wage growth for permanent employees picked up to about 4%, suggesting the labour market is softening but still not weak. [24]
- RBC’s weekly preview expects Q3 2025 GDP to show modest positive growth after a trade‑driven contraction earlier in the year, with domestic demand holding up reasonably well. [25]
For the Canada stock market today, this macro mix implies:
- Less pressure on the BoC to hike again.
- No immediate rush to slash rates either.
- A backdrop that supports financials and real‑asset plays if growth holds, but still rewards defensive sectors when volatility spikes.
5. Loonie update: weak currency reflects oil and rate differentials
The Canadian dollar remains under pressure:
- Analysis from Investing.com highlights that USD/CAD has been grinding higher since mid‑year, helped by softer Canadian data, weaker oil prices, and lingering uncertainty over the BoC’s next moves relative to the Fed. [26]
- The pair is now trading close to 1.40–1.41, near recent highs, signaling a weaker loonie even as inflation cools. [27]
A softer currency is good for exporters and companies with U.S.‑dollar revenues, but it can weigh on Canadian consumers and import‑reliant businesses.
6. Sector snapshot: what’s moving Canadian stocks today
Financials: Scotiabank deal and ETF distribution flows
Scotiabank (TSX: BNS)
- Scotiabank confirmed it has now received all required regulatory approvals for its previously announced deal to sell its banking operations in Colombia, Costa Rica and Panama to Davivienda. [28]
- In exchange, Scotiabank will receive a 20% stake in Davivienda’s new regional group. The move is part of a longer‑running effort to raise profitability in its international banking division and focus on higher‑return markets. [29]
This could be modestly positive for BNS shares over time, as investors generally reward simplification and improved return on equity in international operations.
Mackenzie Investments & bond ETFs
- Mackenzie Investments announced its November 2025 monthly cash distributions for a wide slate of TSX‑listed bond and income ETFs, including products such as MGB, MUB, MFT, QBB and several target‑maturity corporate bond ETFs. [30]
- Distribution announcements don’t typically move the overall market, but they matter for income‑focused investors and can influence flows into Canadian fixed‑income and multi‑asset ETFs.
Real estate & REITs: buybacks support valuations
American Hotel Income Properties REIT (TSX: HOT.UN)
- AHIP said it has completed its normal course issuer bid, repurchasing about 7.5 million units, or roughly 10% of its public float, at an average price of C$0.43. [31]
- The REIT plans to seek approval to renew the buyback program for another 12 months.
For investors, such an aggressive repurchase program signals management confidence and can provide a floor under the unit price, especially in a rate‑sensitive sector like U.S. hotel real estate.
Energy: Canacol’s restructuring adds stress to the space
Canacol Energy (TSX: CNE)
- Canacol announced it has filed for relief under Chapter 15 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code to recognize its ongoing restructuring proceedings under Canada’s Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act. [32]
- The move formalizes the company’s cross‑border restructuring process following earlier news that it had obtained creditor protection in Canada. [33]
While Canacol is a relatively small player, this kind of news tends to reinforce investors’ caution toward higher‑risk, highly leveraged energy producers, especially with oil prices trending lower.
Materials & mining: active deal‑making and portfolio reshuffles
Several TSX and TSXV‑listed miners issued significant news today:
- Osisko Development (TSXV: ODV)
- Reached an agreement to sell its non‑core San Antonio gold project in Mexico to Axo Copper (TSXV: AXO), in exchange for an equity stake of about 9.99% and a series of contingent payments tied to tax refunds, feasibility milestones and future financings. [34]
- Osisko describes San Antonio as non‑material and has had it on care and maintenance since 2023, so the deal is mainly about capital recycling and portfolio focus.
- Endeavour Silver (TSX: EDR)
- Announced a definitive agreement to sell its Bolañitos gold‑silver mine in Mexico to Guanajuato Silver (TSXV: GSVR) for up to US$50 million, including US$40 million upfront and up to US$10 million in contingent payments linked to future production. [35]
- Management framed the sale as a way to concentrate resources on core projects like Terronera and the Pitarrilla development pipeline.
- Brunswick Exploration (TSXV: BRW)
- Revealed a new lithium exploration initiative in Saudi Arabia, where it has secured an exploration license, positioning itself early in a region it views as underexplored for battery metals. [36]
- Snowline Gold (CSE/TSXV‑linked)
- Reported strong drill results from its Valley deposit in Yukon, including more than 500 metres of consistent gold mineralization at moderate grades, reinforcing the scale potential of the project. [37]
- Century Lithium (TSXV: LCE)
- Issued an update on its Angel Island lithium project in Nevada, highlighting ongoing technical and exploration work as it positions itself within the North American battery supply chain. [38]
Collectively, this flurry of news underscores how precious‑metals and energy‑transition metals remain at the centre of the TSX/TSXV story in 2025, even as large‑cap benchmark returns are dominated by financials and industrials.
Technology & industrials: growth names report strong quarters
Kraken Robotics (TSX‑V: PNG)
- Kraken reported record Q3 2025 financial results, citing around 60% year‑on‑year revenue growth, gross margins near 60%, and an EBITDA margin in the mid‑20s. [39]
- The company, which supplies sonar and subsea imaging technology, continues to benefit from defence and offshore energy demand.
Investors will be watching whether this momentum can translate into sustained profitability and contract visibility — key ingredients for rerating an early‑stage industrial tech play.
QYOU Media (TSXV: QYOU, OTC)
- A 403‑restricted release via Morningstar indicates that QYOU Media reported record revenue and its first‑ever net profit in Q3 FY 2025, powered by growth in its U.S. and India‑focused media and advertising businesses. [40]
- This kind of inflection — from repeated losses to a first net profit — can draw renewed interest from small‑cap growth investors.
Consumer & small‑cap stories: Canada Goose in focus
Canada Goose (TSX: GOOS)
- A new analysis piece from Kalkine Media notes that Canada Goose has been one of the stronger names within TSX small‑cap‑tracked apparel stocks, with the brand trading at valuation multiples above sector averages thanks to strong global recognition and premium positioning. [41]
- The article highlights the company’s exposure to seasonal winter demand, global retail expansion and higher volatility, but also underlines that investors continue to assign a premium valuation to the brand.
As cold‑weather season ramps up and holiday shopping unfolds, discretionary names like GOOS can become short‑term sentiment barometers for both Canadian consumer spending and demand from international tourists.
TSXV pipeline: new listings and project financing
On the TSX Venture Exchange, several developments add to today’s narrative:
- Andina Copper (TSXV: ANDC)
- Begins trading on the TSXV today after graduating from the Canadian Securities Exchange, bringing a new copper‑focused mining story to the junior market. [42]
- Galleon Gold (TSXV: GGO)
- Announced it has received an indicative US$46 million debt facility term sheet from Pan American Silver and plans about $25 million in related equity financings, aimed at advancing its projects. [43]
- Austral Gold (TSXV: AGLD) and TRUBAR Inc. (TSXV listing) have also released TSXV‑related approvals and definitive agreements, showing continued deal flow and capital‑raising activity on the junior board despite risk‑off episodes. [44]
7. What Canada stock market investors should watch this week
Looking beyond today’s open, several catalysts will shape TSX direction in the coming days:
- U.S. data deluge and Fed pricing
- U.S. retail sales, producer prices and other late‑month indicators will drive rate‑cut expectations, with Wall Street already leaning toward a December cut. [45]
- A meaningful shift in Fed probabilities can reprice global risk assets, including Canadian banks, insurers and growth stocks.
- Canadian Q3 GDP release
- RBC Economics expects slow but positive Q3 growth, with attention on how tariffs and global trade reconfiguration are affecting exports. [46]
- A stronger‑than‑expected reading could support financials and cyclicals; a miss might reinforce defensive positioning.
- Oil and gold trends
- AI‑related sentiment
- Ongoing debate around AI spending — amplified by high‑profile skeptics like Michael Burry — will continue to influence global tech valuations and spill over into the TSX’s smaller tech cohort. [49]
8. Bottom line for today’s Canada stock market
As of Monday, November 24, 2025, the Canada stock market is:
- Stabilizing after last week’s AI‑driven sell‑off, with the S&P/TSX Composite hovering around flat in early trade.
- Supported by Fed rate‑cut hopes and cooling inflation, but constrained by weak oil, a soft loonie and pockets of credit stress (e.g., Canacol).
- Seeing sector‑specific action driven by:
- Financial restructuring (Scotiabank)
- REIT buybacks (AHIP)
- Mining asset sales and exploration pivots (Osisko, Endeavour, Brunswick, Snowline, Century Lithium)
- Strong small‑cap earnings (Kraken, QYOU)
- Premium consumer brands (Canada Goose).
For investors, that combination argues for a balanced approach: participation in cyclical and growth opportunities where fundamentals are improving, paired with continued respect for macro risks and valuations — especially in AI‑exposed and highly leveraged names.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
References
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