UAMY Stock Forecast: Will U.S. Antimony’s Critical Mineral Boom Last Through 2025?

Key Facts: United States Antimony Corporation (UAMY)

Stock Ticker / Exchange: UAMY (NYSE American)
Current Share Price (Nov 2025): ~$7.04 (recent close) ^[1]
Market Capitalization: ~$950 million ^[2] ^[3]
Sector / Industry: Materials – Industrial Metals & Mining (Antimony, Zeolite) ^[4] ^[5]
52-Week Price Range: $0.49 – $19.71 (extreme volatility over past year) ^[6]
Beta (5Y Monthly): –0.02 (essentially uncorrelated with market) ^[7]
Recent Revenue Growth:+160% (Q2 2025 revenue $17.5M vs prior year) ^[8]; FY 2024 revenue $14.94M (+72% YoY) ^[9]
Profitability: Slight net losses in TTM (EPS –$0.01) ^[10]; Q2 2025 net income turned positive at $728K ^[11]
Forward Guidance: FY 2025 revenue $40–50M; FY 2026 raised to ~$100–125M ^[12] ^[13] (reflecting new mining output & contracts)
Valuation Multiples: Trailing P/E not meaningful (net loss) ^[14]; Forward P/E ~53 (high, pricing in growth) ^[15]
Analyst Consensus: Strong Buy (6 analysts) ^[16] with 12-mo price target ~$4.40 (implying –35% downside from current) ^[17] ^[18]. (However, some updated analyst targets are much higher – see below.)

Table: UAMY Key Financial & Valuation Metrics

Metric	Value
Current Price (Nov 3, 2025)	~$7.04 ^[19]
Market Cap	~$948 million ^[20]
Revenue (TTM)	$25.7 million ^[21]
Net Income (TTM)	–$0.89 million (small loss) ^[22]
2024 Revenue	$14.94 million ^[23]
2025E Revenue (Guidance)	$40–50 million ^[24]
2026E Revenue (Guidance)	$100–125 million ^[25] ^[26]
52-Week Range	$0.49 – $19.71 ^[27]
Shares Outstanding	~139 million ^[28]
Beta (5Y)	–0.02 ^[29]
Analyst Rating	Strong Buy (6 analysts) ^[30]
Analyst Price Target	$4.40 (average 12-mo target) ^[31]

Recent Stock Performance & Technical Overview

United States Antimony’s stock has experienced explosive volatility in 2025. UAMY surged over 1,000% year-over-year at one point ^[32], hitting an initial all-time high of $8.63 in early October ^[33] – and later spiking as high as $19.71 by mid-October (a 52-week high). This meteoric rise was fueled by a string of positive catalysts (discussed below) and intense investor interest in critical minerals. However, the rally was followed by a sharp pullback: by early November, UAMY retraced to the $7–8 range, giving up a large portion of its October gains ^[34].

Such wild swings illustrate the stock’s high technical volatility and risk. In late October, technical signals flipped bearish: UAMY fell below short-term moving averages, triggering “sell” signals, and a pivot top on Oct 14 led to a ~–60% drop from that peak ^[35]. Momentum indicators like RSI became oversold (14-day RSI ~19) after the plunge ^[36], suggesting the stock may be due for a technical bounce. Indeed, support levels have formed around $6.50–$6.70 (recent volume support) ^[37], while overhead resistance is seen around $8.90–$9.30 (prior support and moving-average levels) ^[38]. Any move back above ~$9 would break the downtrend and signal renewed bullish momentum, whereas a drop under ~$6.30 could signal further downside ^[39].

Overall, traders should brace for high volatility. UAMY’s average daily trading range has exceeded 10–12% recently ^[40], and volume spiked on down days (a cautionary sign of potential further weakness) ^[41] ^[42]. The short-term trend is weakly negative despite the longer-term uptrend, leading one algorithmic forecast to issue a “Sell” rating in late October ^[43] ^[44]. However, that same model forecasts a very wide range of possible outcomes – it even suggested the stock “could rise ~90% in the next 3 months” given its recent trend and volatility, albeit with low confidence ^[45]. In summary, technical indicators flash mixed signals: oversold conditions could spur a relief rally, but UAMY remains below key trendlines and faces overhead supply from investors who bought at higher prices. Caution is warranted until a clear bottom forms and the stock stabilizes.

Industry & Macroeconomic Context: Antimony’s Strategic Surge

United States Antimony operates in a niche but strategically vital industry. Antimony, a metalloid, has become recognized as a critical mineral for national defense and high-tech applications. It is used in over 200 types of military munitions (e.g. primers for bullets and armor-piercing rounds) ^[46], as well as in flame-retardant materials, semiconductors, lead-acid batteries, and solar panels ^[47]. In the renewable energy sector, antimony strengthens perovskite solar cells and next-generation batteries, while in defense it’s considered so crucial that the U.S. government deems it essential for the National Defense Stockpile ^[48] ^[49].

Global supply, however, is concentrated and constrained. The U.S. has virtually no domestic mine production of antimony at scale – domestic antimony mining ceased around 2020 due to environmental and cost challenges ^[50]. The country consumes ~25,000 tonnes annually but relies ~100% on imports for primary supply ^[51], with a small portion (under 20%) met via recycling of lead batteries. This heavy dependence on foreign sources (mainly China) has become a national security concern.

Global antimony output has declined in recent years. China, historically the world’s top producer, saw production drop sharply to ~40,000 tonnes in 2023 ^[52] after stricter environmental regulations forced smelter closures in key regions (Hunan, Guizhou). Russia and Myanmar, other major sources, also experienced falling output due to sanctions and instability ^[53]. Notably, in late 2024 China even announced an export ban on certain antimony products ^[54], further tightening supply. These supply shocks, combined with steady or rising demand, led to surging antimony prices. In 2024 prices jumped ~54%, and in 2025 antimony hit all-time highs ~US $51,500 per tonne ^[55]. As one industry CEO noted, “the antimony spot price has yet again achieved a new all-time high, now trading at US$51,500 per ton” ^[56].

This favorable macro backdrop has been a tailwind for UAMY. High antimony prices increase the value of U.S. Antimony’s output and encourage investment in new production. Moreover, geopolitical moves have benefited the company: the Pentagon and U.S. government launched initiatives to secure domestic supply of critical minerals (including antimony) in response to China’s export restrictions ^[57]. For instance, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has started funding stockpile purchases and encouraging domestic projects as part of a broader critical mineral strategy. International deals are also reshaping supply chains – e.g., a recent US$500M agreement for U.S. interests to develop critical minerals in Pakistan (including antimony) ^[58] – highlighting how antimony is now in the global spotlight.

However, the industry context is a double-edged sword. The very factors driving UAMY’s opportunity (supply scarcity and sky-high prices) also underscore risk: if Chinese supply were to ramp back up or if global demand falters (e.g. in a recession), antimony prices could retreat, squeezing UAMY’s margins. Additionally, new entrants and projects are trying to fill the supply gap – for example, Tajikistan rapidly increased output (21,000 tonnes in 2023, now ~26% of global supply) ^[59], and other Western developers (in Australia, Canada, etc.) are scaling up antimony production in the coming years ^[60]. UAMY will need to execute well to secure its share of the market as competition and supply evolve.

Fundamental Analysis: Financials, Contracts, and Growth Outlook

From a fundamental perspective, United States Antimony’s fortunes have dramatically improved in 2024–2025. The company historically operated at a small scale (2022 revenue was under $9M ^[61]) and struggled with losses. Now, thanks to internal improvements and government tailwinds, UAMY is demonstrating rapid growth – and projecting transformational revenue increases through 2026.

Recent earnings: In Q2 2025, UAMY reported revenue of $17.5 million (up +160% YoY) and a net profit of $0.73 million ^[62]. This marked one of the first profitable quarters in recent history (net margin ~4%). Profitability remains modest, but the trend is positive – 2024’s full-year loss narrowed to $1.74M (a 73% reduction from 2023) ^[63], and 2025 is on track to potentially break into net positive earnings if H2 delivers as expected. The balance sheet appears reasonably healthy for now: as of mid-2025, UAMY had a current ratio ~2.2 ^[64] (indicating sufficient liquidity), and the company recently bolstered its cash position via a stock offering (see below). Debt levels are not highlighted as a concern in recent filings (though we should watch if they take on debt to expand).

Major contracts & growth drivers: The single biggest fundamental catalyst is UAMY’s new 5-year contract with the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency (DLA). In late September 2025, UAMY announced a sole-source contract worth up to $245 million over 5 years to supply antimony metal to the National Defense Stockpile ^[65]. This is a game-changing deal for a company of UAMY’s size – effectively underwriting a large portion of future demand. An initial $10 million order (315,000 lbs of antimony ingots) was received as of Q4 2025 ^[66] ^[67], with deliveries to begin by year-end and more orders expected in 2026. “This is the first of many purchase delivery orders anticipated from the DLA under our contract,” said CEO Gary C. Evans, expressing confidence that UAMY will be regularly shipping antimony to the U.S. government ^[68]. The DLA deal not only provides guaranteed revenue, but also validates UAMY as a strategic supplier – potentially facilitating more government support or contracts (e.g., with the Department of Defense or defense contractors) down the line.

Beyond the DLA contract, UAMY has been ramping up operations to capitalize on surging demand:

The company expanded its Montana smelter (Thompson Falls) in 2025, boosting capacity to ~300 tons per month ^[69]. New furnaces are slated to come online by January 2026 ^[70], tripling processing capability just as more raw material becomes available.
UAMY also restarted its Madero smelter in Mexico in 2025 ^[71] after upgrades. This gives a second active processing site, crucial for handling additional feedstock.
On the mining side, UAMY is transitioning from just processing third-party ore to producing its own ore. In October 2025 the company resumed mining at Stibnite Hill in Montana – its first U.S. antimony mining in decades ^[72] ^[73]. Using a new “cut and cover” surface mining method, UAMY has begun extracting high-grade antimony ore from this site, which could yield 3x higher profit margins than buying raw material externally, according to CEO Evans ^[74]. Early results are promising: over 250 tons of ore were mined in the pilot program by late October ^[75], and the material appears to meet military-grade specs for ammunition use ^[76]. Operations will pause for winter but resume in spring 2026, and UAMY has staked 100+ new claims nearby to expand this resource ^[77].
UAMY is also pursuing new mines in Alaska and Canada (Ontario), acquiring claims and permits in 2024–25 ^[78]. Notably, mining permits in Alaska were recently approved, paving the way for production there by mid-2026 ^[79].
The company doesn’t only deal in antimony: it also produces zeolite (an industrial mineral used in filtration, agriculture, etc.) at a subsidiary in Idaho, and recovers small amounts of precious metals (gold/silver) as byproducts ^[80]. While antimony is the clear focus, these additional products provide some diversification and incremental revenue.

Given these drivers, UAMY issued bullish guidance. Management forecasts $40–50M revenue in 2025 and a leap to $100M+ in 2026 ^[81] – vastly higher than any prior year (for context, 2024 was ~$15M). By October, with the Stibnite mine news, the company even raised 2026 revenue guidance further to $125M ^[82]. If achieved, that would represent ~8x growth from 2024 to 2026 – an extraordinary growth rate for a mining company. Longer term, an outlook shared by one source envisioned $208M revenue and $82M earnings by 2028 ^[83], though such distant projections carry high uncertainty. Clearly, the company and some analysts believe UAMY is at the start of a major scale-up phase.

Capital and dilution: To fund this growth, UAMY has tapped capital markets. In October 2025, it conducted a $26.25M registered direct stock offering (3.5 million shares to an institutional investor) ^[84], which at the time of pricing was around $7.50/share. The fact that an institution took a sizable stake is a positive, providing cash (~$25.6M net) ^[85] for expansion (new equipment, mining development, working capital for fulfilling that DLA order, etc.). However, shareholders were diluted (~2.5% increase in share count). Additionally, UAMY filed a $400M mixed shelf offering prospectus in late 2025 ^[86] – basically pre-authorizing the company to raise up to $400M via stock or other securities in the future. While this doesn’t mean they will issue it all at once, it signals that further equity (or debt) raises are possible if the ambitious expansion plans require more funding. Investors should monitor how much new capital UAMY ultimately raises and at what valuations, as heavy dilution could cap share price upside.

Valuation perspective: At ~$7/share, UAMY’s valuation appears stretched relative to current fundamentals but more reasonable if future targets are hit. The stock’s trailing P/E is not meaningful (small loss over TTM) and even on a forward basis it’s high (the forward P/E ~53 assumes 2025 earnings that have yet to fully materialize) ^[87]. Price-to-sales ratios illustrate the optimism: UAMY currently trades at ~37x TTM sales, and about ~20x 2025E sales (using the ~$45M midpoint guidance) – extremely rich for a mining/materials company. Only if 2026’s $100M+ revenue comes through does the multiple compress to ~9x forward sales, which is still above average for the sector. In short, the market has already priced in significant growth. A Seeking Alpha analysis by Harrison Schwartz in September cautioned that UAMY’s valuation had “become stretched” after the DoD contract rally, noting that even with a $27M annual revenue boost from the contract, the stock’s multi-fold jump put its market cap far above near-term earnings potential ^[88]. On the other hand, bulls argue UAMY deserves a premium as the only U.S. antimony producer poised to grab outsized share of a strategic market ^[89]. The DLA contract and government backing provide a degree of earnings visibility uncommon in junior miners. Thus, investors are paying up now for the prospect of UAMY morphing from a penny-stock processor into a leading western antimony supplier by 2026.

Expert Opinions and Analyst Targets

Wall Street coverage of UAMY has increased alongside its stock surge. Analysts and industry experts are divided – some see enormous upside if UAMY executes, while others urge caution about the stock’s recent hype and rich valuation. Here are a few notable viewpoints:

Alliance Global Partners (Jake Sekelsky) – Bullish: In late September, Alliance’s analyst lauded the DLA contract as a “turning point” that “further secures the company’s position as the leading antimony supplier in North America.” Sekelsky raised his 12-month price target to $9.75 (from around $5 prior) after the deal. He noted that “the Chinese antimony export ban… coupled with dwindling U.S. strategic stockpiles created a perfect storm for UAMY to step up to the plate” ^[90]. In his view, UAMY is uniquely positioned to fill the critical supply gap, and the DoD’s involvement de-risks the demand side of the equation. This is a decidedly bullish outlook, essentially valuing UAMY near $10.
H.C. Wainwright – Bullish: After the DLA contract news, H.C. Wainwright (a firm known for covering small-cap miners) reiterated a Buy rating and upped their price target to $8.50 (from $4.50) ^[91]. They cited the contract’s potential to significantly boost revenue and “expand the company’s collaboration with the DoD” ^[92]. This target was actually surpassed by the stock’s October spike, but as of early November $8.50 represents modest upside from current levels. It suggests Wainwright sees fair value roughly in line with UAMY’s recent secondary offering pricing (~$7–8).
William Blair – Initiated Coverage: In mid-2025, William Blair reportedly initiated coverage on UAMY with an Outperform rating ^[93], indicating optimism on the company’s prospects. Details of their target price weren’t publicly disclosed in our sources, but a new coverage from a reputable mid-tier bank underscores that UAMY is on the radar of institutional analysts, not just retail-focused firms.
Benzinga / Market Commentators: UAMY even caught the attention of CNBC’s Jim Cramer during the peak of its run. In a late September segment, Cramer referred to UAMY’s explosive move as “just a rocket ship”, acknowledging the excitement but cautioning investors (comparing it to another tech stock rocket) ^[94] ^[95]. Such media mentions likely contributed to speculative interest. Meanwhile, market news outlets noted the stock’s overbought technicals at the highs ^[96] – a subtle warning that the rally was overheated.
Bearish Voices: A Seeking Alpha contributor voiced a more skeptical take, calling UAMY “dangerously overvalued” after antimony prices spiked ^[97]. They argued that while antimony’s strategic value is real, UAMY’s market cap had run far ahead of fundamentals. Citing potential execution risks and the history of penny stock dilution, the piece suggested the stock could pull back unless UAMY delivers flawless growth. Additionally, an Australian financial news outlet reported that Larvotto Resources – an Aussie antimony explorer UAMY offered to acquire – rejected UAMY’s bid as undervaluing their assets ^[98]. This implies that even at UAMY’s lofty stock price, not everyone is convinced UAMY’s paper is worth enough to buy real assets without offering a big premium. That said, UAMY’s management has shown discipline by not overpaying; CEO Gary Evans noted they would not “re-engage” with Larvotto after the rejection, focusing instead on internal projects ^[99].

In summary, expert opinion on UAMY ranges from optimistic to cautiously optimistic, with few outright bearish analyst ratings (likely because those bearish simply avoid the tiny stock). The consensus target of ~$4.40 ^[100] is skewed by older estimates and perhaps not reflective of the recent contract. The more current bullish analysts peg UAMY’s value in the upper-single digits (high-$8 to ~$10) based on the new growth trajectory ^[101] ^[102]. For investors, it’s important to note these targets assume successful execution of ramp-up plans and robust antimony pricing. They also imply that at ~$7, UAMY is no longer a cheap hidden gem but priced near a fair value that factors in a lot of good news.

Risks and Challenges

Despite the promising outlook, UAMY faces significant risks that could derail the bullish scenario. Prospective investors should weigh these risk factors:

Commodity Price Risk: Antimony prices are historically volatile. A reversal of the current price boom – due to increased Chinese exports, global recession reducing demand, or new supply from projects in Tajikistan/Pakistan/Australia – could sharply reduce UAMY’s revenues and margins. The company’s expansion plans assume robust pricing; any collapse in antimony price would directly hit earnings ^[103] ^[104].
Execution & Operational Risk: UAMY’s management must execute an aggressive growth plan (ramping mining in multiple locations, doubling smelting capacity, fulfilling large contracts) with a relatively small organization (~62 employees as of 2024) ^[105]. Mining is a challenging business – issues like lower-than-expected ore grades, delays in Montana/Alaska projects, equipment failures, or accidents could occur. The new mining methods (e.g. “cut and cover” at Stibnite) are unproven at full scale and may face setbacks ^[106] ^[107]. Operational hiccups could prevent UAMY from hitting the lofty revenue targets on time.
Regulatory & Environmental: Mining and smelting are subject to strict environmental regulations. UAMY needs permits and community support to expand (notably in environmentally sensitive areas like Montana and Alaska). Any permitting delays or environmental compliance issues could slow or stop projects. Additionally, changes in U.S. regulatory stance on mining (at state or federal level) could impact operations. On the flip side, because antimony is critical, U.S. regulators may actually expedite permits – but there’s no guarantee.
Reliance on Government Contracts: The 5-year DLA contract is a boon, but it’s essentially one customer – the U.S. government. If for any reason (budget, politics, etc.) the DoD scales back purchases, UAMY would need to quickly find alternative buyers for that volume. Also, government contracts often come with strict quality, timing, and security requirements. Failing to meet the contract terms could result in penalties or cancellation. UAMY’s press release explicitly warned that forward-looking statements involve risk and that “the Company’s ability to maintain or obtain permits, licenses, and regulatory approvals” and “the impact of geopolitical developments” are key risk factors ^[108] ^[109].
Dilution & Financing: UAMY’s expansion will likely require more capital. The recent $26M raise was just a start; a $400M shelf is in place ^[110], suggesting the company could issue substantial new equity or debt. If the stock price stays lower, raising the full amount would be highly dilutive. There’s a risk that existing shareholders get diluted significantly, which could cap share price even if the business grows. Conversely, if the stock surges again, management might opportunistically issue shares at high levels (as seen with many small-caps), which can cool off rallies.
Geopolitical Risk: UAMY’s supply chain spans borders – they source some feedstock from international suppliers (e.g. they mentioned international ore arriving at their Mexico plant) ^[111]. Geopolitical instability in supplier countries, trade restrictions, or conflict (for example, if U.S.-China tensions worsen beyond export bans) could impact UAMY. Also, while being a U.S. supplier is an advantage, if the geopolitical situation unexpectedly improves (e.g. China ban lifted), the urgency for UAMY’s product might wane.
Market Liquidity & Microcap Risk: UAMY is still a small-cap stock with a history of penny-stock level trading. Its float (about 107M shares) ^[112] is relatively small, and insiders hold ~17% ^[113]. The stock can be manipulated or subject to rapid sentiment shifts. Investors could face extreme volatility (we already saw 50%+ swings in days) and must be prepared for that high risk/high reward profile.
Competitive & Substitution Risk: While UAMY currently has a unique position, competition could emerge. Perpetua Resources is developing a major antimony-bearing gold mine in Idaho (the Stibnite Gold Project) expected to produce antimony as a by-product – it just got a key approval in late 2025 ^[114]. If that comes online in a few years, UAMY would have domestic competition. Likewise, other antimony juniors (in Australia, Canada) might partner with Western governments. There’s also the risk that technological substitutions reduce antimony use (for instance, new flame retardants or battery chemistries could use less or no antimony in the long run).

In summary, UAMY faces a minefield of risks common to junior resource companies, amplified by its rapid expansion. Investors should monitor how the company mitigates these (e.g. securing insurance or offtake agreements to reduce risk, phasing growth to manage execution). So far, management has navigated well (e.g. quickly leveraging the stock surge to raise cash, and focusing on projects with quick payback like reactivating known mines), but the road ahead requires flawless execution.

Bull vs. Bear Scenarios Through 2025

Bullish Scenario: UAMY’s bull case is centered on it becoming a key American supplier in a strategic market. In a bullish outcome, antimony prices remain elevated (or even rise further) due to sustained global shortages and strong defense demand. UAMY successfully ramps up its mining and smelting capacity on schedule – delivering antimony to the DLA stockpile on time and on spec, which could lead to even more government orders or contracts (perhaps an expansion of the $245M deal). By late 2025, UAMY might show continued quarter-over-quarter growth and possibly initiate 2026 guidance towards the high end ($125M). If all goes well, investor confidence would surge and the stock could revisit its highs. Some analysts have implied double-digit share prices are achievable; for instance, Alliance Global’s ~$9.75 target ^[115] and the technical forecast range up to $13+ ^[116] suggest a return to ~$10+ is plausible if catalysts materialize. A bullish year-end 2025 scenario could see UAMY stock rally back toward the $10–12 range, implying ~50–70% upside from early-November levels. In this scenario, the company’s narrative as the “only game in town” for antimony in the U.S. gains traction, possibly attracting strategic investors or buyout interest (even a hint of which could further boost the stock). Additionally, a broader market rotation into commodity and defense-related stocks could lift UAMY as a thematic play.

Key drivers for the bull case include:

Strong execution of deliveries and mining output (proving UAMY can meet its guidance).
No negative surprises in the November earnings release (due Nov 13, 2025) – instead perhaps upbeat commentary or additional contracts.
Continued U.S. government support (e.g. talk of stockpile expansion, more funding for critical minerals) reinforcing the investment narrative.
Technically, bulls would want to see UAMY break above $9–$10 resistance on high volume, confirming the uptrend’s resumption.

Bearish Scenario: In a bear case, reality falls short of expectations and the stock’s gravity-defying run fully reverses. For example, if antimony prices were to pull back from their highs (say due to China finding ways around export curbs or a demand slowdown), UAMY’s growth projections might suddenly look overly optimistic. Even absent a price crash, any operational slip – such as delays in ramping the Montana mine (winter weather issues, etc.), or slower procurement than expected – could spook investors who have priced in perfection. The upcoming earnings and any early 2026 guidance could disappoint if, for instance, costs are higher or the revenue ramp is slower than the market hoped.

Additionally, stock-related pressures could drive a bearish outcome. The fact that UAMY’s consensus analyst target is around $4–5 ^[117] reflects that some analysts see fair value much lower than current trading. If momentum traders exit and the focus returns to valuation metrics, the stock could drift toward that level. The recent high-profile drop (from $19 to $7) has likely shaken confidence; continued selling pressure (perhaps tax-loss selling or profit-taking) might push UAMY down to test its pre-breakout levels. Prior to the DoD news, the stock was <$1; while it’s unlikely to round-trip completely given the fundamentally changed outlook, a bearish short-term target could be somewhere in the $3–4 range (where the stock would be roughly valuing UAMY at ~2.5x 2026 sales, still not cheap, but far less bubbly than at $7+). Notably, the average price target of $4.40 implies the analyst community’s baseline is that the stock overshot and could settle around that mid-single-digit level ^[118]. A bearish year-end scenario might see UAMY slide towards that target as hype fades.

Bearish drivers include:

Any hiccup or negative news at the next earnings (e.g. lowered guidance, unexpected costs, or delays).
Macroeconomic setback: if equity markets turn risk-off, high-flying microcaps like UAMY often get hit hardest, regardless of their individual story.
Further share dilution events: if UAMY announces another large stock offering or insiders sell shares, it could pressure the price.
Technically, failing to hold the ~$6 support and breaking down into the $5s or lower would trigger stop-losses and could accelerate a decline (given the thin float, moves can cascade).

In the bear case, UAMY could end 2025 languishing in the lower-single digits, and sentiment would shift from excitement to skepticism about its grand plans.

Realistically, the outcome will depend on how the next few months unfold. Investors may see a choppy path: for instance, a short-term bounce from oversold levels (on optimism heading into the DLA deliveries), followed by consolidation as the market digests actual results. Through the end of 2025, it’s reasonable to expect continued volatility in a broad ~$5 to $10 range, with news flow determining where within that band UAMY trades.

Competitive and Peer Comparison

UAMY’s uniqueness is a big part of its story: it operates the only antimony smelters in North America ^[119] and is the sole U.S.-based company currently producing significant antimony products. This gives it a first-mover advantage in securing contracts like the DLA deal. However, it’s worth comparing UAMY to a few peers and potential competitors in related critical mineral spaces:

Perpetua Resources (NASDAQ: PPTA) – Perpetua is developing the Stibnite Gold Project in Idaho, which notably contains one of the largest antimony resources in the U.S. (as a byproduct of gold mining). They recently received a key approval to proceed ^[120]. Perpetua aims to produce antimony trisulfide for defense and has already been awarded funding by the DoD for pilot antimony production. However, their project timeline is longer (mid/late-2020s) and they are primarily a gold company. In the near term, UAMY faces little direct competition for supplying the U.S. antimony market until Perpetua (or others) come online. If Perpetua succeeds, by late decade UAMY might have to share the domestic market, but for now UAMY has a window of opportunity to entrench itself as the go-to supplier.
Chinese Producers (Hunan Gold, etc.) – Globally, Chinese companies have dominated antimony mining and refining. They aren’t direct equity peers (mostly not U.S.-listed), but they set the price. China’s export restrictions have been a boon to UAMY ^[121]; if those were lifted or if Chinese producers undercut prices, it would hurt all non-Chinese players. Conversely, if China doubles down on limiting exports (as they have with other critical minerals), UAMY’s strategic value to Western customers only grows.
Other Critical Mineral Miners (Rare Earths, etc.): UAMY’s stock has sometimes moved in sympathy with rare earth and strategic metal companies. For example, MP Materials (NYSE: MP) in rare earths or Lynas Rare Earths have had high profiles as Western critical mineral suppliers. UAMY, being much smaller, could be viewed as an analogous play in antimony. In terms of valuation, many critical mineral stocks trade at high multiples due to growth potential and government support. UAMY’s ~$950M cap is actually not cheap relative to peers on a revenue basis (MP Materials, for instance, has >$400M revenue and is profitable, yet its price/sales is lower). But MP is focused on magnets and tied to EV demand; UAMY is more of a defense material pure-play. Investors comparing across the critical mineral space should note UAMY’s niche focus but also its integrated model (mining + refining in one).
Larvotto Resources (ASX: LRV) – This Australian junior holds an antimony project (the Hillgrove mine in NSW) and was a takeover target for UAMY. UAMY’s unsolicited bid (~A$0.45/share equivalent) was rejected ^[122], but UAMY did acquire ~10% of Larvotto on market ^[123]. If one views Larvotto as a peer, it underscores UAMY’s strategic intent to consolidate Western antimony assets. Hillgrove is an old high-grade mine; if Larvotto proceeds alone, they could become a competitor in supplying antimony to markets like Europe or the U.S. But given UAMY’s stake, a partnership or future merger isn’t off the table. For now, UAMY signaled it’s focusing on its own projects rather than overpaying for Larvotto ^[124].

Overall, UAMY stands out among peers by virtue of having production capabilities and revenue today, not just in the future. Many critical mineral companies are still in exploration or development stages. This has allowed UAMY to seize contracts and market attention now. The flip side is that peers (like Perpetua or others) might actually have larger resource bases or more robust balance sheets once developed – UAMY will have to use its head-start wisely. In comparing valuations, UAMY is expensive against traditional miners but arguably justified if one believes it will maintain a near-monopoly on U.S. antimony supply. Investors bullish on critical minerals may choose UAMY for concentrated exposure to antimony, whereas those who want a broader exposure might prefer a basket or ETF (like REMX – Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF) that also indirectly includes antimony via global miners.

Conclusion & Outlook Through End of 2025

United States Antimony Corporation has rapidly transformed from an obscure microcap into a key player in America’s critical minerals push. The remainder of 2025 will be crucial in determining whether UAMY’s stock can hold onto its gains or if it will settle back down after the initial euphoria. The company’s fundamentals are undoubtedly improving – record revenues, a swing to profitability, and a multi-year government contract in hand – but the current stock price already reflects much of this good news.

For the stock forecast through end of 2025, expect the narrative to be driven by a few upcoming events:

Q3 2025 Earnings Release (mid-November): Investors will dissect the numbers for confirmation of growth and any updates to guidance. Strong results or optimistic management commentary could spark a rally, while any hint of issues could induce a selloff. Consensus expects a small positive EPS (~$0.02) ^[125]; hitting or beating that would reinforce the bullish case of a profitable growth company.
Initial DLA Deliveries: UAMY plans to begin delivering antimony to the National Defense Stockpile in Q4 2025 ^[126]. Successful fulfillment of the first $10M order on time will build credibility. Any announcement of additional orders (the contract allows up to $245M) would be a catalyst for the stock.
Year-end Antimony Price & Policy: If antimony prices stay high or rise further by December, it bodes well for UAMY’s margins and perhaps investor sentiment. Additionally, any news of U.S. policy support – e.g. funding in a defense bill for critical minerals, or public statements about securing antimony supply – could give UAMY a late-year boost. Conversely, a notable drop in antimony prices or easing of China’s stance could pressure the stock.

Balancing all factors, a reasonable baseline forecast is that UAMY shares will trade volatilely between roughly $6 and $10 into year-end, with a midpoint around the current ~$7–8 level unless new information tips the scales. This range accounts for the tug-of-war between bullish momentum (driven by growth news and potential additional DoD support) and bearish pressures (valuation concerns and any profit-taking/dilution). Long-term investors who believe in the strategic thesis might tolerate this volatility, viewing any dips as buying opportunities given the 2026–2028 potential. Short-term traders, on the other hand, will likely continue to swing trade the stock given its large daily moves and sensitivity to headlines.

In conclusion, UAMY presents a high-risk, high-reward picture. The title of the company’s recent presentation – “The Critical Minerals and ZEO Company” ^[127] – underscores management’s ambition to cast UAMY as a critical minerals powerhouse (antimony, zeolite, and even mentioning cobalt and tungsten initiatives in the pipeline). If they deliver on this vision, UAMY could indeed justify a much higher valuation in time. As CEO Gary Evans proclaimed, the developments in Montana are a “game changer for all USAC shareholders” ^[128], and he exudes confidence about uncovering “nothing like we are currently experiencing” in terms of new antimony deposits ^[129]. Such optimism suggests the company sees its current situation as just the beginning of a supercharged growth era.

Yet, one must temper that enthusiasm with realism: execution and external conditions will determine if UAMY truly becomes the “US antimony champion” or if 2025’s boom turns out to be an overshoot followed by a correction. Investors should keep a close watch on the fundamental milestones (production volumes, revenues, contract orders) and trade/invest accordingly.

Bottom Line: United States Antimony’s stock has rocketed on a critical minerals wave, and expert opinions reflect both excitement and caution. The end of 2025 will likely see UAMY either consolidating its gains if targets are met, with the stock potentially pushing back toward double-digits on good news ^[130], or drifting lower toward fundamental fair value if challenges emerge ^[131]. In this dynamic materials sector, UAMY remains one to watch – it’s a rare pure-play on antimony with a now-visible growth runway, but one that must be navigated expertly to reward shareholders over the long run. ^[132] ^[133]

Sources:

UAMY stock statistics and financials (StockAnalysis, Yahoo Finance) ^[134] ^[135] ^[136]
U.S. Antimony press releases and company updates ^[137] ^[138] ^[139] ^[140]
Expert commentary: Alliance Global Partners, H.C. Wainwright analyst quotes ^[141] ^[142]
Industry context: Antimony market reports, price surge data ^[143] ^[144]
StocksToTrade market analysis (Tim Bohen) on UAMY volatility and financials ^[145] ^[146]
StockInvest.us technical analysis on UAMY (signals, support/resistance) ^[147] ^[148]
Streetwise Reports – “Antimony: 2025’s Hottest Strategic Metal” (industry overview, CEO quotes) ^[149] ^[150] ^[151]
Investing.com news articles on UAMY stock milestones and offerings ^[152] ^[153].