UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Stock: What to Watch Before the November 28, 2025 Open

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE: UNH) heads into Friday’s shortened Black Friday session still carrying one of the ugliest year‑to‑date charts in the Dow – and some of the heaviest policy and legal baggage in the U.S. healthcare sector.

After a brutal sell‑off driven by soaring medical costs, a massive cyberattack and a federal investigation into Medicare billing, UnitedHealth stock has clawed back from its lows but remains down roughly one‑third so far in 2025 and more than 40% over the past 12 months. ^[1]

With U.S. markets reopening Friday after Thanksgiving and closing early at 1 p.m. ET, investors will be watching UNH closely as fresh headlines hit around investigations, litigation and the Trump administration’s push to reshape Medicare Advantage and Obamacare. ^[2]

Below is a rundown of where the stock stands and the key catalysts to watch before the opening bell on November 28, 2025.

UnitedHealth stock snapshot heading into Friday

Recent price: UNH last changed hands around $330 a share, modestly above Wednesday’s official close near $326 and up about 1%–2% on the day. ^[3]
52‑week range: Shares have traded from the low‑$230s to above $600 over the past year, with recent Trefis analysis noting a slide from “over $600 to around $310–$320” – a drop of almost 50%. ^[4]
Performance: Total return stands at roughly ‑34% year‑to‑date and about ‑44% over 12 months, making UnitedHealth one of 2025’s worst performers in both the S&P 500 and the Dow. ^[5]

That kind of drawdown has turned UNH into a lightning rod in the market: some see a broken growth story, others a blue‑chip insurer on sale.

Q3 2025 earnings: growth returns, margins still tight

UnitedHealth’s latest earnings report on October 28, 2025 is the most important fundamental reference point heading into Friday’s trade.

According to the company’s release, third‑quarter results looked like this: ^[6]

Revenue: $113.2 billion, up 12% year‑over‑year
GAAP EPS: $2.59
Adjusted EPS: $2.92
Cash from operations: $5.9 billion
Medical care ratio (MCR): 89.9%
UnitedHealthcare revenue: +16% YoY to $87.1 billion
Optum revenue: +8% YoY to $69.2 billion

Management also raised full‑year 2025 guidance, now expecting:

Net earnings of at least $14.90 per share
Adjusted EPS of at least $16.25 ^[7]

That guidance is higher than the reinstated forecast after this spring’s shock but still dramatically below where Wall Street thought 2025 would land a year ago. As Trefis notes, UnitedHealth’s consolidated medical care ratio has jumped from roughly 82% in 2022 to around 88%–90% recently – an increase of about six percentage points – forcing management to cut 2025 adjusted EPS expectations from around $29.50–$30 to roughly $16.25. ^[8]

In other words, revenues are growing double‑digits again, but profits are still being squeezed by elevated care utilization, especially in Medicare Advantage.

Zacks Investment Research estimated this week that UNH shares remain about 7% below their level immediately after the latest earnings release, underscoring the market’s lingering skepticism. ^[9]

DOJ probe: Medicare Advantage billing under the microscope

The single biggest overhang on UnitedHealth stock remains the U.S. Department of Justice investigation into the company’s Medicare Advantage business.

In February 2025, Reuters reported that the DOJ’s criminal division was examining whether UnitedHealth inflated the severity of patient diagnoses in Medicare Advantage to increase federal payments, a practice known as “upcoding.” ^[10]
In a July 24, 2025 securities filing, UnitedHealth said it was cooperating with formal criminal and civil requests from the DOJ, and had initiated a third‑party review of its medical‑coding oversight and audit processes, expected to be completed by the end of Q3 2025. ^[11]

Subsequent commentary from health‑policy analysts suggests the probe has broadened beyond risk‑adjustment coding to include how UnitedHealth reimburses its owned physician groups and how pharmacy‑benefit unit Optum Rx handles billing. ^[12]

UnitedHealth insists it has “full confidence” in the integrity of its Medicare Advantage program, but the potential downside ranges from hefty fines and restitution payments to changes in how the government pays private MA plans – all of which would hit UNH’s carefully rebuilt margin story. ^[13]

For Friday’s session, any hint about the timing or scope of DOJ actions – whether via leaks, legal filings or company commentary – could move the stock.

Policy wild card: Medicare Advantage star ratings and the Trumpcare countdown

Regulation risk doesn’t stop at the DOJ.

On November 26, Axios reported that the Trump administration has proposed an overhaul of Medicare Advantage star ratings, scrapping a dozen quality measures while maintaining the core system of bonus payments for plans with consistently high scores. ^[14]

Key points in the proposal:

The administration would drop a Biden‑era plan that would have rewarded insurers for improving health outcomes specifically for low‑income and disabled enrollees, instead sticking with the current approach that rewards overall high performance.
CMS estimates the star‑ratings changes would cost taxpayers about $13 billion over a decade, but the effect on individual insurers like UnitedHealth could be mixed, depending on their plan mix and performance.
Regulators are also seeking feedback on future risk‑adjustment changes – the very area where UnitedHealth is under DOJ scrutiny for potential upcoding. ^[15]

At the same time, a fresh Barchart column published Thursday flagged January 30, 2026 as a crucial date: President Trump has said he wants a new “Obamacare alternative” unveiled by then, putting major health insurers under intense policy scrutiny as they navigate 2026 bids and product designs. ^[16]

UnitedHealth is already responding to this pressure by removing broker commissions on select Medicare Advantage products for the 2026 plan year, affecting roughly 18% of its MA offerings and partially cutting commissions on another 2%, while still paying renewal commissions. ^[17]

For UNH stock, Friday’s trading will reflect a market trying to handicap whether these policy shifts ultimately ease or deepen the squeeze on Medicare Advantage profitability through the next election cycle.

Fallout from the Change Healthcare cyberattack moves into the courts

The massive Change Healthcare ransomware attack – first disclosed in February 2024 – continues to haunt UnitedHealth and its shareholders.

A detailed timeline compiled by HIPAA Journal shows that UnitedHealth now estimates the breach touched around 190 million individuals, nearly double its early estimate, making it the largest healthcare data breach ever recorded. ^[18]

Key recent developments:

The ransomware group initially associated with the attack (BlackCat/ALPHV) received a reported $22 million ransom, but performed an “exit scam” – keeping the money while an affiliate later partnered with a second group, RansomHub, to try to extort Change Healthcare again. ^[19]
Cybercriminals accessed the network through a Citrix server that lacked multi‑factor authentication, and the outage disrupted claims processing across the U.S. for weeks, forcing UnitedHealth to advance about $8.5 billion in emergency funding to providers; roughly $3.2 billion of those loans had been repaid by late 2024. ^[20]

Most recently, a Nebraska state court allowed a data‑privacy lawsuit filed by Attorney General Mike Hilgers to proceed against Change Healthcare, Optum and UnitedHealth, rejecting a motion to dismiss. The case alleges security failures that exposed sensitive information for nearly 900,000 Nebraskans and seeks civil penalties and restitution. ^[21]

Additional state actions are likely, and the federal Office for Civil Rights is still investigating possible HIPAA violations. That means more disclosure – and potentially more reserve build‑ups – could hit UNH’s earnings path into 2026, something investors will continue to price in with every legal update.

Strategic reset: dropping a million seniors and tightening the network

UnitedHealth has been aggressively reshaping its insurance book to restore profitability – moves that may help margins but carry political and reputational risk.

A MarketWatch investigation last week reported that UnitedHealth plans to drop about 1 million seniors from its Medicare Advantage plans, citing sustained financial losses on some products and a desire to restore its “swagger.” ^[22]

According to that report:

Insurance margins have “sharply declined,” and roughly $16 billion of expected cash flow has effectively vanished amid rising utilization and regulatory shifts.
UnitedHealth is raising ACA exchange premiums, trimming physician networks and relying heavily on its Optum subsidiary, which now employs about 10% of U.S. physicians, to tighten cost control. ^[23]

Critics, including some patient advocates and lawmakers from both parties, argue that this level of vertical integration – where the insurer owns the doctors and controls prior‑authorization and payment rules – increases conflicts of interest and could incentivize care denials. ^[24]

For UNH shareholders heading into Friday, the question is whether those painful cuts and network moves will show up as a meaningful improvement in 2026 margins – or whether they merely accelerate the political drumbeat to break the company up.

New voice on the board: Scott Gottlieb joins UnitedHealth

In a bid to bolster its governance credentials, UnitedHealth recently added Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, to its board of directors. ^[25]

Reuters reported that Gottlieb, who led the FDA from 2017 to 2019 and later joined Pfizer’s board, brings deep experience in drug pricing, regulation and healthcare innovation. His appointment comes as UnitedHealth tries to restore credibility after:

A DOJ investigation into its Medicare practices
Financial setbacks and suspended guidance earlier this year
Public criticism over its role in the Change Healthcare breach and its growing market power in provider services ^[26]

Investors will be watching for any early signs that Gottlieb’s presence shifts the company’s stance on issues like prior authorization, transparency and AI‑driven utilization management – all hot buttons for regulators.

Big‑money moves: Buffett buys, other billionaires exit

The collapse in UNH’s share price has drawn in some of Wall Street’s most prominent names – and scared off others.

Berkshire Hathaway’s vote of confidence

In mid‑August, Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a new stake of about 5 million UnitedHealth shares, valued at roughly $1.6 billion, its first significant position in the company since exiting more than a decade ago. ^[27]

News of the Buffett‑backed stake sent UnitedHealth shares sharply higher in after‑hours and pre‑market trading at the time, with multiple outlets highlighting that Berkshire had quietly accumulated the position under a confidentiality request before revealing it in a 13F filing. ^[28]

But not everyone is sticking around

On the other side of the trade:

Michael Burry exited his UnitedHealth position entirely this month, with Yahoo Finance noting he closed his stake after shares had fallen about 36% year‑to‑date. ^[29]
A new Motley Fool piece – echoed on Finviz – reported that David Tepper’s Appaloosa Management sold roughly 92% of its UNH stake, reallocating into other opportunities. ^[30]

At the same time, Reddit‑driven retail interest remains high. A recent analysis of Reddit forums found UnitedHealth among the top non‑tech stocks individual investors are betting on, suggesting a deepening “value‑contrarian” bull case among some retail traders. ^[31]

Is UnitedHealth stock cheap yet?

Valuation is where the bull and bear cases collide ahead of Friday’s open.

A recent Insider‑Monkey/Yahoo analysis pointed out that after the selloff, UnitedHealth trades at a forward P/E in the high‑teens, slightly below the broader healthcare sector’s average near 19, and at a price‑to‑sales ratio under 1x, unusually low for a historically high‑quality compounder. ^[32]

Barchart’s latest deep‑dive framed UNH as “fundamentally more affordable than most peers on a sales basis,” while still roughly line with the industry on profit multiples. ^[33]

On the other hand, Trefis argues that the discount is justified for now, given:

The roughly 600‑basis‑point jump in MCR versus 2022
The massive downgrade in 2025 adjusted EPS guidance
Declining Optum operating earnings in 2025 versus 2024 ^[34]

Until UnitedHealth can prove that medical costs are stabilizing, that 2026 premium increases will stick, and that Optum can resume being a growth engine rather than a drag, many institutions appear unwilling to pay up for the stock again.

What could move UNH stock after Thanksgiving?

Heading into the November 28, 2025 open – and with markets on a shortened schedule – traders in UnitedHealth stock are likely to focus on a few core themes:

Any commentary around the DOJ investigation
- Look for legal filings, leaks or company statements clarifying the status of the criminal and civil probes and the third‑party review of Medicare coding practices.
Signals on Medicare Advantage profitability
- Updates from CMS, the Trump administration or UnitedHealth around star‑ratings changes, risk‑adjustment tweaks or pricing for the 2026 plan year could sway expectations for margins. ^[35]
Litigation and breach costs
- Further state‑level actions following Nebraska’s green‑lit lawsuit, or updates from federal regulators on the Change Healthcare breach, would impact the expected size and timing of legal settlements and security investments. ^[36]
Market‑wide sentiment on healthcare and policy
- Upcoming Trump administration moves on ACA subsidies and drug pricing, and the broader “Trumpcare” debate heading toward the Jan. 30, 2026 deadline, are shaping risk premiums across managed‑care stocks – with UNH front and center. ^[37]
Flow from big investors
- Any fresh 13F‑style disclosures or public comments from Berkshire, Burry, Tepper or other high‑profile investors could prompt fast money to follow.

Bottom line

UnitedHealth Group enters Friday’s Black Friday session as a deeply bruised but systemically important healthcare giant:

Revenues are growing at a double‑digit clip, and full‑year guidance is being nudged higher again.
But margins are thin, 2025 earnings expectations have been essentially cut in half compared with a year ago, and the company faces intense scrutiny from the DOJ, state attorneys general, regulators and politicians.
At the same time, the stock’s steep decline has attracted heavyweight value buyers like Berkshire Hathaway and a vocal group of retail bulls, while driving out some prominent hedge funds.

For traders and longer‑term investors alike, UNH on November 28 is less about a one‑day move and more about positioning ahead of a critical 12‑ to 18‑month window – one that will include potential DOJ actions, massive litigation settlements, a shifting Medicare Advantage rulebook, and the Trump administration’s promised new healthcare blueprint.

As always, this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. UnitedHealth is a complex, highly regulated business; anyone considering UNH stock should perform their own research and, if needed, consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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