·  ·  ·  · 

UnitedHealth (UNH) Premarket: Analysts Bullish on Comeback Despite 2025 Woes – What to Watch Nov. 3, 2025

2 November 2025
by
UnitedHealth Group Stock Surges Amid Analyst Upgrades: Is Wall Street Turning Bullish on UNH in 2025?
  • UNH Price: Closed Friday (Nov 1) at $341.56 (down 0.93% on day) [1], with market cap ~$309 billion [2]. 52-week range ~$234.65–630.45 [3].
  • Q3 Results: Oct 28 report – revenues $113.2 B (+12% YoY) and EPS $2.59 (GAAP; $2.92 adjusted) [4], both ahead of estimates. 2025 guidance raised to Adj. ≥$16.25 EPS [5].
  • Analyst Sentiment: Wall Street’s median 12‑month target ≈$390 [6]. 16 of 30 analysts rated UNH a “Buy”/“Overweight” (vs. 2 “Sell”) [7]. Recent price-target hikes include Bernstein $433 and KeyBanc $400 [8] [9]. Consensus sees 2026 EPS ≈$17.60 [10].
  • Stock Trends: After plunging ~30–35% YTD, UNH has rebounded ~10% off summer lows [11]. The late-May low ~$245 vs. April high ~$630 [12], meaning the stock still trades far below its 52-week peak [13]. Insider/investor confidence: CEO Stephen Hemsley has bought shares, and Warren Buffett’s Berkshire added ~5 M UNH shares in Aug [14] [15].
  • Headwinds: UNH cut full‑year 2025 EPS guide drastically in April due to surging Medicare Advantage costs [16]. It’s exiting ~100 Medicare Advantage plans (impact ~600k members) to stem losses [17] [18]. Regulatory/legal concerns linger (e.g. a federal fraud probe) [19]. Broader sector shocks – e.g. US Obamacare premiums set to more than double in 2026 [20] – add uncertainty.

UnitedHealth’s volatile 2025 has made UNH a headline story heading into Nov. 3 trading. After a surprise earnings miss in Q1 and a CEO shakeup this spring, UNH plunged to four-year lows. In late Oct. the turnaround narrative got a boost: Q3 beat estimates and management raised guidance [21] [22]. CEO Stephen Hemsley (back at the helm) told investors he’s confident “we will return to solid earnings growth next year” thanks to “operational rigor and more prudent pricing” [23]. Guggenheim and Reuters note Hemsley’s comeback has reassured investors and even prompted Buffett to buy in [24] [25].

Market analysts are increasingly upbeat. As of Nov. 1, UNH closed near $341.6 [26]. Notably, TechStock²’s Oct. 21 analysis points out UNH “remains deep in the red for 2025” (–30–35% YTD) but has recovered about +10% off its summer trough [27]. Wall Street is divided: some remain cautious on cost pressures, but many have upped price targets this fall [28] [29]. For example, Bernstein boosted its target to $433, KeyBanc to $400, and Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Barclays and others have moved targets well above the $300s [30] [31]. QuiverQuant reports 22 analysts’ 12-month targets have a median of ~$390 [32]. MarketBeat concurs that consensus upside is around +16% [33].

UnitedHealth’s fundamentals remain strong but strained by costs. Q3 revenue of $113.2 B (up 12% YoY) surpassed Street estimates [34], driven by 16% growth in its UHC insurance arm and 8% in OptumRx [35]. However, margins suffered: adjusted EPS $2.92 missed last year’s pace, reflecting an 89.9% medical care ratio in line with expectations [36]. Reuters observes that UNH’s leadership, including CFO Wayne DeVeydt, is trimming unprofitable businesses (like broad clinical services) to restore margins [37]. Oppenheimer analyst Michael Wiederhorn says the cost-surge trends “are on track” (i.e. stabilizing) after management’s cleanup effort [38]. Overall, UNH raised full-year adjusted EPS guide to ≥$16.25 [39], above Street’s ~$16.20 prior consensus [40] – a sign that management thinks the worst of 2025’s cost shock is past.

Still, risks loom. Medical cost inflation and policy changes are top concerns. UnitedHealth cut 2025 EPS guidance earlier in 2025 because Medicare Advantage members used more care than expected [41]. In Oct. it announced exiting about 100 Advantage plans (109 counties) to halt losses [42] [43]. At the same time, regulators have been scrutinizing insurers; a Justice Dept. report earlier reported significant Medicare “star rating” cuts which UNH has since challenged in court. Broader healthcare trends add volatility: a Reuters Nov. 1 story warns ACA premiums will more than double next year without subsidies [44], likely slowing enrollment. On the positive side, peers like CVS are forecasting mid-teens profit growth in 2026 [45], indicating industry-wide improvement ahead.

Outlook: With markets closed Sunday, Monday’s open may see UNH react to global cues or sector news. TechStock² notes sentiment has turned cautiously optimistic, given recent buy-side support (Buffett, Ark, others) and the stock’s bounce off multi-year lows [46] [47]. Analysts caution earnings season jitters – next catalyst is likely Q4 guidance in Jan. – but the raised guidance and management confidence have revived the bull case. As Cerity Partners strategist Jim Lebenthal put it (via Reuters), “Hemsley is highly respected,” but he warned that systemic medical overuse could still pressure insurers long-term [48].

Investors should monitor premarket indicators Monday and any overnight healthcare news. Key metrics to watch: UNH’s relative performance vs. the S&P/health indices, any Fed comments on inflation (which could affect discount rates), and updates on Medicare policy or related earnings from other insurers. Overall, UNH stock currently trades at a modest P/E ~18 [49], with a 2.6% dividend yield [50]. The balance between resumed growth (per Hemsley’s plan) and lingering sector risks will drive trading. In summary, UnitedHealth’s turnaround narrative – bolstered by strong Q3 results and analyst optimism [51] [52] – is in focus Monday. However, investors remain wary of the healthcare cost cycle and regulatory backdrop, making UNH a high-visibility story in tomorrow’s premarket session.

Sources: Latest earnings releases and SEC filings [53] [54]; Reuters & BusinessWire news [55] [56] [57]; Market data (Reuters) [58] [59]; analyst reports and commentary [60] [61] [62] [63]; industry news [64] [65] [66].

Here's why Baird analyst Michael Ha maintains a 'cautious' outperform rating on UnitedHealth
Watch this video on YouTube.

References

1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.gurufocus.com, 5. www.gurufocus.com, 6. www.quiverquant.com, 7. www.quiverquant.com, 8. www.quiverquant.com, 9. ts2.tech, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. ts2.tech, 12. ts2.tech, 13. ts2.tech, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.quiverquant.com, 16. ts2.tech, 17. ts2.tech, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. ts2.tech, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.gurufocus.com, 22. www.gurufocus.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. ts2.tech, 28. ts2.tech, 29. www.quiverquant.com, 30. ts2.tech, 31. www.quiverquant.com, 32. www.quiverquant.com, 33. www.marketbeat.com, 34. www.gurufocus.com, 35. www.gurufocus.com, 36. www.gurufocus.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.gurufocus.com, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. ts2.tech, 42. ts2.tech, 43. www.reuters.com, 44. www.reuters.com, 45. www.reuters.com, 46. ts2.tech, 47. www.reuters.com, 48. www.reuters.com, 49. www.marketbeat.com, 50. www.reuters.com, 51. www.reuters.com, 52. www.quiverquant.com, 53. www.gurufocus.com, 54. www.gurufocus.com, 55. www.reuters.com, 56. www.reuters.com, 57. www.reuters.com, 58. www.reuters.com, 59. www.reuters.com, 60. ts2.tech, 61. ts2.tech, 62. www.quiverquant.com, 63. www.reuters.com, 64. www.reuters.com, 65. www.reuters.com, 66. www.reuters.com

Marcin Frąckiewicz

CEO of TS2 Space and founder of TS2.tech. Expert in satellites, telecommunications, and emerging technologies, covering trends in space, AI, and connectivity.

Stock Market Today

  • Public Storage (PSA) Valuation After Pullback: Is It Now Undervalued?
    November 2, 2025, 4:30 PM EST. Public Storage shares recently closed at $278.56, down 7.8% over the week and 6.1% year-to-date. The stock's 5-year TSR remains solid around 49%, while the fair value is pegged at $322.74, suggesting the name is undervalued versus current levels. Analysts see potential upside as shares trade below targets, underpinned by digital tools, data-driven pricing, and operational efficiencies that could drive margin expansion. Yet risks include Sunbelt oversupply and California regulatory headwinds. The stock trades at a P/E of 28.9x, above the U.S. REIT average but below peers, with a fair ratio near 33.5x-a case for value if growth stays intact. The question: is the pullback a true reset or a buying opportunity?
  • KKR Valuation in Focus After Recent Selloff: Is the Stock Undervalued?
    November 2, 2025, 4:28 PM EST. KKR (KKR) shares have fallen 7.3% in the last month after a strong run, with an 18.5% slide in the last quarter. Despite solid long-term gains (three-year TSR 136%, five-year 224%), near-term valuation remains a hot topic. A narrative argues a fair value of $157.91, suggesting the stock may be undervalued at the current $118.33, supported by large embedded unrealized carried interest (> $17B) and a highly marked-up portfolio that could monetize through future exits. Yet risks include competition and private-credit headwinds that could temper growth if fundraising momentum or asset performance weakens. Relative to peers, KKR trades at a P/E of 52.7x, well above the 24x industry average and 39.3x peer average, signaling potential valuation risk if growth slows.
  • Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Valuation After Price Dip: Is the Stock Undervalued?
    November 2, 2025, 4:12 PM EST. Illinois Tool Works (ITW) saw a modest pullback, with a recent price around $243.92 and a roughly 6% drop in the past month, though YTD performance remains negative. The analysis argues a fair value near $261, signaling the stock could be undervalued if earnings, margins, and sentiment play out as expected. The bull case rests on margin expansion from enterprise initiatives expected to add at least 100 basis points, and a manufacturing model that mitigates tariff headwinds. Risks include softer organic growth and regional weakness in the automotive segment. With ITW trading below that fair value, investors may see upside potential if the narrative succeeds, but near-term momentum looks subdued and sentiment has cooled after a run of gains.
  • PBJ Tops FTXG in Size and Long-Term Growth Among Food & Beverage ETFs
    November 2, 2025, 4:02 PM EST. The comparison between the Invesco PBJ and the First Trust FTXG shows similar expense ratios, but PBJ's larger AUM supports liquidity and long-run growth. Over five years, PBJ's growth to about $1,365 from $1,000 surpasses FTXG's roughly $1,016. In the last year, FTXG outpaced PBJ (13.3% vs 5.1%), yet PBJ leads on a multi-year basis with about 45% total return vs FTXG's ~11.5% (dividends included). FTXG is more concentrated in Consumer Defensive with a yield near 2.9%, while PBJ carries a higher drawdown (about -15.82% vs -21.68% for FTXG). Top holdings show the tilt: PBJ's DoorDash/Monster/Hershey; FTXG's PepsiCo/ADM/Mondelez. In short, size and durability matter for investors' liquidity and risk tolerance.
  • Tri Pointe Homes (TPH) Valuation After 8% Decline: Is the Stock Undervalued?
    November 2, 2025, 4:00 PM EST. Tri Pointe Homes (TPH) has fallen about 8% over the past month, prompting a closer look at its valuation in a choppy housing market. The analysis argues the stock trades near a ~24% discount to analyst targets, with a published fair value of $38.60, suggesting the shares are undervalued relative to consensus. Proponents point to growth in high-prospect Sun Belt and Southeastern markets (Florida, Carolinas, Utah) that could improve sales volumes and revenue visibility, even as near-term revenue and earnings face softness. Momentum has cooled after a strong 3-year total shareholder return (~90%). Investors should weigh the upside from geographic expansion against risks such as affordability hurdles and potential orders slowdowns that could justify a continued valuation gap.

Related Posts