USD/JPY Today (10.11.2025): Yen Slips Back Above 154 as BoJ Flags ‘Near‑Term’ Hike Risk; Forecast & Key Levels

Quick take: The dollar/yen pair is trading back above 154.00 today as risk appetite improves on signs Washington may end the historic U.S. government shutdown, while fresh Bank of Japan communications point to a “near‑term” case for higher rates even as Tokyo’s new government urges policy caution. As of today, USD/JPY is around 154.2, with an intraday range roughly 153.49–154.25 and a 52‑week range of 139.86–158.87. ^[1]

USD/JPY price today — 10 November 2025

Spot: The pair is holding near 154.0–154.2 after reclaiming ground lost late last week. Intraday ranges printed roughly 153.5–154.3, according to LSEG/Reuters data. ^[2]
Tone: The dollar is steadier against the yen as investors rotate into risk assets on signs of progress toward reopening the U.S. government; the pair briefly traded near 154.09 during today’s session as sentiment improved. ^[3]

What’s moving USD/JPY right now

1) Shutdown optimism boosts risk appetite (yen weaker).
A procedural U.S. Senate vote to advance a funding bill over the weekend lifted global equities and nudged Treasury yields higher, helping the dollar stabilize and weighing on the safe‑haven yen. ^[4]

2) BoJ’s October “Summary of Opinions” signals the hike debate is live.
The Bank of Japan published its October meeting summary this morning (released 08:50 JST), showing several policymakers see conditions “almost met” for a further step toward policy rate normalization, while others argued for taking “a little more time” given uncertainty around U.S. tariffs and Japan’s new fiscal stance. The document underscores a genuine near‑term hike debate. ^[5]

3) Tokyo leans pro‑growth; pressure on BoJ timing.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said she will water down Japan’s strict annual fiscal target in favor of a multi‑year framework that allows more flexible spending, and a draft stimulus outline urges the BoJ to focus on growth alongside price stability—messaging that complicates the central bank’s near‑term calculus. ^[6]

4) Policy voices urge caution on a December hike.
Takuji Aida—Credit Agricole’s chief Japan economist and a key adviser tapped for Takaichi’s flagship panel—argued the BoJ should avoid a December increase and consider January 2026 instead, citing a likely Q3 contraction. Markets still price a hike by early 2026, but his remarks temper immediate expectations. ^[7]

5) Authorities keep an eye on the yen.
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated the government is monitoring FX with a high sense of urgency amid rapid, one‑sided moves—language that keeps intervention risks on traders’ radar should volatility spike. ^[8]

6) Japan’s macro backdrop is mixed.
A Reuters poll last week projected Q3 GDP to contract for the first time in six quarters, while real wages fell for a ninth straight month in September—headwinds that argue for caution on tightening even as inflation normalizes. ^[9]

Today’s market map: why USD/JPY is above 154 again

Risk‑on + higher yields → softer yen: Global stocks rose and U.S. 10‑year yields edged up as odds rose for a shutdown resolution; USD/JPY firmed in tandem. ^[10]
BoJ hike talk, but not a done deal: The BoJ summary shows most board views tilt toward a hike soon, yet timing depends on wage momentum and the growth outlook—hence the tug‑of‑war in yen direction intraday. ^[11]
Fiscal signals matter: Takaichi’s pro‑growth stance and the stimulus outline’s emphasis on growth complicate the optics of immediate rate hikes, diluting hawkish effects on the yen for now. ^[12]

Short-term USD/JPY forecast (next 24–72 hours)

Base case (range‑trade bias): 153.30–154.80

With risk sentiment buoyed by U.S. shutdown progress and BoJ timing still debated, dips should find support above 153.30/50, while supply emerges into 154.50–154.80 where this month’s highs cluster. Data flow is constrained by the shutdown, so headlines on Capitol Hill may drive the tape. ^[13]

Bullish extension (risk‑on + “delay” narrative): 155.00–155.50

A clearer path to reopening the U.S. government and louder calls to avoid a December hike could nudge USD/JPY through 154.80 and test 155.00/50. Watch for follow‑through if equities keep rallying and yields firm. ^[14]

Bearish risk (hawkish BoJ chatter or intervention scare): 152.80–153.00

Any shift toward earlier BoJ tightening in official remarks, or a strong pushback from Japan’s MoF if yen weakness accelerates, could drag USD/JPY back toward 153.00 and the high‑152s. Rapid moves would raise the probability of verbal warnings. ^[15]

Levels to watch today

Resistance: 154.25 (today’s high area), 154.50/80 (recent tops), then 155.00 (psychological). ^[16]
Support: 153.50 (today’s low area), then 153.00 (round‑number pivot). ^[17]

Week ahead: catalysts for dollar/yen

BoJ signaling & speeches — Any reinforcement of “near‑term hike” language would be yen‑supportive; continued caution would keep carry trades alive. ^[18]
Japan macro — The GDP release next week looms large after polls flagged a likely Q3 contraction; wage and consumption updates remain key for policy timing. ^[19]
U.S. policy path — If the government reopens, delayed U.S. data (inflation, jobs) will quickly reset Fed expectations and ripple through USD/JPY. Today’s market had already priced some optimism. ^[20]

1–3 month directional view (into year‑end)

Our base case: Sideways‑to‑higher bias 151–156, with tests of 155–157 possible if risk stays buoyant, the U.S. shutdown ends cleanly, and Tokyo continues to stress growth over rapid tightening. ^[21]
Downside scenario: A December BoJ hike (or firm guidance for January) plus softer U.S. yields could pull USD/JPY back toward 150–152, particularly if Japan’s GDP surprise is less negative and wage momentum holds. ^[22]
Upside tail risk: Should global risk rally hard and the BoJ punt a rate move into 2026, the pair could re‑challenge recent peaks within the 52‑week band (topping near 158.87). ^[23]

Bottom line: Until the BoJ’s timing is clearer, USD/JPY remains a buy‑the‑dip, sell‑the‑rally market inside 153–155. A decisive policy or shutdown headline is what’s most likely to break today’s range.

Editor’s notes & sources used today (10.11.2025)

Real‑time pricing & ranges: LSEG/Reuters USD/JPY quote page (spot, today’s high/low, 52‑week band). ^[24]
Market drivers: Reuters global markets wrap on shutdown progress and risk sentiment; Reuters FX note on Asian/European trading today. ^[25]
Policy & politics: BoJ Summary of Opinions (official PDF) and Reuters explainer on the BoJ’s “near‑term hike” debate; Reuters reporting on PM Takaichi’s looser fiscal goal and today’s stimulus draft outline; adviser Takuji Aida urging no December hike; MoF Katayama’s FX vigilance. ^[26]
Macro: Reuters poll flagging Q3 GDP contraction risk; real wages falling for a ninth straight month. ^[27]

This article is for information only and does not constitute investment advice. Foreign‑exchange trading involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

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