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Vanguard’s VTI ETF Surges on Tariff News – Experts See 15% Upside
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Vanguard’s VTI ETF Surges on Tariff News – Experts See 15% Upside

by
13 October 2025
  • ETF performance: Vanguard’s Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) is up roughly 15–16% year-to-date and trading near $325 as of Oct. 13, 2025 [1] [2]. (By comparison, the S&P 500 is up about 15% in 2025 [3].)
  • Recent moves: On Oct. 10 VTI tumbled ~2.7% (to ~$321.80) after President Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese imports [4] [5]. By the next trading day it had rebounded (~+1.2% Monday pre-market) as Trump began to soften his stance [6]. Overall last week VTI fell ~2.84% yet still saw net inflows of about $917 million [7], underscoring heavy investor interest despite the dip.
  • Investor flows: In early October, roughly $1.03 billion flowed into VTI while about $1.02 billion flowed out of Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO) [8]. (TipRanks data show both ETFs gained modestly for the week, so this was a genuine rotation not performance-driven [9].) Analysts attribute this to a “growing preference for lower-cost options” – VTI and VOO both have ultra-low 0.03% fees vs. 0.09% for SPY [10] [11] – plus investors seeking broader market exposure.
  • ETF fundamentals: VTI now exceeds $2 trillion in assets – the first-ever ETF to do so [12] – and holds over 3,600 U.S. stocks (large-, mid-, and small-caps) [13] [14]. That makes it essentially a one-fund play on the entire U.S. equity market for just a 0.03% expense ratio [15] [16]. (By contrast, VOO covers only the S&P 500’s 500 large caps, leaving out ~20% of the market [17] [18].)
  • Top holdings: Like VOO, VTI’s largest positions are mega-cap tech names. Nvidia (~6.5% of VTI), Microsoft (~6.0%) and Apple (~5.6%) together make up roughly 18–20% of the portfolio [19]. These giants have been on fire: Nvidia is +40% YTD (thanks to the AI boom) [20], Microsoft’s cloud/AI and gaming businesses are booming [21], and Apple’s iPhone 17 sales remain strong. (TipRanks notes NVDA is a “Strong Buy” with ~16% upside [22], MSFT has a “Strong Buy” consensus and ~20% upside [23], while AAPL is a “Moderate Buy” [24].) These high-flyers have driven most of the market rally, even as small- and mid-caps have also picked up steam in 2025 [25].
  • Analyst outlook: TipRanks’ ETF analysts rate VTI a Moderate Buy, with an average price target around $370–372 [26] [27] – roughly a 12–15% gain from current levels. Similarly, Reuters data show analysts’ consensus on Microsoft (a proxy for tech strength) implies ~20% upside [28] [29]. VTI’s “Smart Score” on TipRanks is 8 (out of 10), suggesting likely outperformance versus the broad market [30].

Market Context – Record Rally & Fed Optimism

U.S. stocks have been near record highs this October [31]. The S&P 500 briefly hit an all-time intraday high above 6,730 in early Oct [32]. Investors have cheered signs of cooling inflation and growing bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts (markets put ~95% odds on a 25bp cut at the late-Oct meeting [33]). This “Fed pivot” hope, along with strong tech earnings, has fueled a broad rally: even small-cap indexes are up ~34% YTD, slightly outpacing large caps (+30%) [34]. VTI, by tracking the whole market, has closely mirrored this ~+15% YTD gain [35].

However, volatility flared around geopolitical news. On Oct. 10 President Trump suddenly announced 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports (effective Nov. 1) [36]. This sent U.S. equities sliding: the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all ended sharply lower that day (S&P –2.7%) [37] [38], with VTI tumbling ~2.7% [39]. But by the next session Trump was apparently moderating his stance (talk of “rolling back” the tariff threat), and stocks regained lost ground on Oct. 13 – VTI opened +1.2% that morning [40]. In short, markets are sensitive to the trade war newsflow, but the longer-term bullish trends remain intact.

Investors Rotate from S&P-Only to Total Market

A striking theme of the past week has been fund flow divergence. According to TipRanks and TechStock², VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) saw roughly $1.02 billion in outflows in the first week of October, even though the S&P was rising. By contrast, VTI enjoyed about $1.03 billion of new money [41]. In other words, investors pulled money out of the pure large-cap S&P 500 even as it ticked higher, and poured money into the broad-market ETF as it climbed. This isn’t a bet against tech – VTI still holds the same big tech names – but rather a bet “on top of” them, into smaller stocks and midcaps not in the S&P [42].

Cost is a big factor. State Street’s SPY (the original S&P ETF) trades at 0.0945% fee and has lost a record $32.7B in 2025 [43]. Vanguard’s VOO and BlackRock’s IVV (both 0.03%) have been the beneficiaries, with VOO alone netting over $80B YTD [44]. As one analysis notes, “Rival funds from Vanguard and BlackRock have surged ahead, attracting billions thanks to 0.03% expense ratios” – reflecting a “growing preference for lower-cost options” among ETF buyers [45]. Crucially, VTI also charges just 0.03% but adds small/mid caps. TechStock² highlights that VTI now holds 3,500+ stocks covering the “other 20%” beyond the S&P, at no extra fee [46] [47]. For investors wary of being over-concentrated in MegaTech, VTI offers broad diversification for almost the same cost.

VTI’s Top Holdings & Sector Drivers

The top five VTI holdings (by weight) are Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Alphabet, the same as the S&P 500’s top five [48]. Recent news from these giants has underpinned both ETFs. For example, NVIDIA ($183.16 on Oct 13 [49]) has become a Wall Street darling: the chipmaker is +40% YTD on surging AI demand [50], and analysts give NVDA a “Strong Buy” consensus [51]. Microsoft ($513.52 on Oct 13 [52]) is also robust – its push into cloud gaming, AI and clean energy projects has impressed investors [53], and analysts peg MSFT’s 12-month target ~620 (≈20% upside) [54]. Apple ($245.27 on Oct 13 [55]) is showing resilience too: iPhone 17 demand is strong, though analysts are slightly more cautious (AAPL holds a “Moderate Buy” consensus).

Outside the tech giants, VTI’s breadth means it also benefits when smaller sectors rally. TechStock² notes that VTI’s inflows reflect confidence in a broader upswing beyond “just the big five” [56] [57]. Indeed, 2025’s rally has been more equally spread: since spring, small-cap indexes are up ~34% vs. ~30% for large caps [58]. VTI holders automatically capture that small-cap strength. (For example, health care, financials and industrials – underrepresented in the S&P’s top quintile – have also joined the rally this year.)

Analysts’ Ratings & Forecasts

The consensus among equity analysts (via TipRanks) is positive on VTI. TipRanks’ ETF consensus gives VTI a Moderate Buy rating [59]. The average 12-month price target is roughly $370–372 [60], implying about 12–15% upside from current levels. (TipRanks’ update on 10/6/25 cited a $368.53 target [61]; the latest 10/13 update shows ~$371 [62].) In addition, individual stock ratings for VTI’s big names are mostly bullish: NVDA and MSFT carry “Strong Buy” consensus, and even Apple is at “Moderate Buy” [63] [64]. VTI’s TipRanks Smart Score is 8/10 [65], which indicates it is likely to outperform the overall market in coming months.

Various market strategists echo this optimism. For example, TipRanks recently noted that even though VTI had a weekly pullback, it “has experienced a 5-day net inflow of $917.48 million,” highlighting continued investor demand [66]. Similarly, analysts quoted by TS2.Tech emphasize VTI’s all-time highs and Fed-driven tailwinds: TechStock² reports that both VTI and S&P 500 funds have surged with this year’s broad market rally, and that money flows into VTI signal a rotation into smaller stocks rather than away from the tech leaders [67] [68].

Key Market & Stock Prices (Oct 13, 2025)

  • VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF): ~$325 (up +1.0% Monday) [69]. Year-to-date approx. +15.5% [70].
  • VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF): ~$620 (reflecting similar ~15% YTD gain) [71].
  • NVidia (NVDA):$183.16 [72] (≈+40% YTD).
  • Microsoft (MSFT):$513.52 [73] (≈+25% YTD).
  • Apple (AAPL):$245.27 [74] (≈+10% YTD).
  • SPY (S&P 500 ETF): ~$586 (for context, +14–15% YTD).

Outlook & Analysis

Most analysts suggest VTI’s bull run can continue into late 2025. The combination of extremely low fees, broad diversification and heavy tech exposure – all while capturing small-cap strength – makes VTI attractive in the current environment. The key risks are macro-related: renewed trade-war escalation, Fed policy surprises, or a big tech correction could temporarily pull VTI back. However, as one commentary put it, even the tariff scare “has not deterred investor appetite” for broad-market exposure [75] [76].

In sum, Vanguard’s Total Stock Market ETF is in the spotlight. It recently hit $2 trillion AUM (the first ETF ever to do so) [77], and it’s seeing record inflows while the S&P-focused funds cool off. With analysts pointing to a further ~15% upside (to the mid-$370s) [78] and economic indicators still generally supportive of stocks, VTI looks set to remain a core pick for buy-and-hold investors. As TipRanks’ research suggests, “VTI’s broad exposure comes at rock-bottom cost,” offering a one-stop way to ride whatever direction the U.S. market takes next [79] [80].

Sources: TipRanks ETF News (Oct 6–13, 2025) [81] [82] [83]; TechStock² (TS2.Tech) analysis [84] [85] [86]; Reuters and Investing.com market data [87] [88] [89] [90].

The Complete Guide to VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF)
Watch this video on YouTube.

References

1. www.tipranks.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. ts2.tech, 4. www.tipranks.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.tipranks.com, 7. www.tipranks.com, 8. ts2.tech, 9. ts2.tech, 10. ts2.tech, 11. ts2.tech, 12. ts2.tech, 13. ts2.tech, 14. ts2.tech, 15. ts2.tech, 16. ts2.tech, 17. ts2.tech, 18. ts2.tech, 19. www.tipranks.com, 20. ts2.tech, 21. ts2.tech, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. www.tipranks.com, 25. ts2.tech, 26. www.tipranks.com, 27. www.tipranks.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. ts2.tech, 30. www.tipranks.com, 31. ts2.tech, 32. ts2.tech, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. ts2.tech, 35. ts2.tech, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.tipranks.com, 40. www.tipranks.com, 41. ts2.tech, 42. ts2.tech, 43. ts2.tech, 44. ts2.tech, 45. ts2.tech, 46. ts2.tech, 47. ts2.tech, 48. www.tipranks.com, 49. www.reuters.com, 50. ts2.tech, 51. ts2.tech, 52. www.investing.com, 53. ts2.tech, 54. www.investing.com, 55. www.reuters.com, 56. ts2.tech, 57. ts2.tech, 58. ts2.tech, 59. www.tipranks.com, 60. www.tipranks.com, 61. www.tipranks.com, 62. www.tipranks.com, 63. ts2.tech, 64. www.tipranks.com, 65. www.tipranks.com, 66. www.tipranks.com, 67. ts2.tech, 68. ts2.tech, 69. www.investing.com, 70. www.tipranks.com, 71. ts2.tech, 72. www.reuters.com, 73. www.investing.com, 74. www.reuters.com, 75. www.tipranks.com, 76. ts2.tech, 77. ts2.tech, 78. www.tipranks.com, 79. ts2.tech, 80. ts2.tech, 81. www.tipranks.com, 82. www.tipranks.com, 83. www.tipranks.com, 84. ts2.tech, 85. ts2.tech, 86. ts2.tech, 87. www.reuters.com, 88. www.reuters.com, 89. www.investing.com, 90. www.reuters.com

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Mateusz Kaczmarek Latest posts

A technology and finance expert writing for TS2.tech. He analyzes developments in satellites, telecommunications, and artificial intelligence, with a focus on their impact on global markets. Author of industry reports and market commentary, often cited in tech and business media. Passionate about innovation and the digital economy.

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