Vistra (VST) Q3 2025: $652M Profit, 2026 EBITDA Outlook Raised to $6.8

6 November 2025

Q3 GAAP net income:$652 million; Adjusted EBITDA:$1.58 billion. ^[1]
2025 guidance: Adjusted EBITDA narrowed to $5.7–$5.9B; 2026 guidance initiated at $6.8–$7.6B Adjusted EBITDA. ^[2]
Revenue:$4.97B in Q3, down ~21% year over year. ^[3]
Capital returns: Board authorized an additional $1.0B in share repurchases through year‑end 2027. ^[4]
Strategy milestones: Completed 2.6 GW of gas plant acquisitions, announced 860 MW of new West Texas gas capacity, and signed a 20‑year, 1,200‑MW nuclear PPA from Comanche Peak. ^[5]

What Vistra reported today

Vistra posted third‑quarter 2025 GAAP net income of $652 million and Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $1.581 billion. Management said the year‑over‑year decline in GAAP profit primarily reflects lower unrealized mark‑to‑market gains on hedging positions and the Martin Lake Unit 1 outage, partially offset by recognition of nuclear production tax credit revenue and firmer capacity prices. ^[6]

Top line performance came in at $4.97 billion, about 21% lower than the prior year’s quarter. ^[7]

Guidance: a bigger 2026, tighter 2025

2025: Vistra narrowed its Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA range to $5.7–$5.9 billion and raised the midpoint for Adjusted FCF before Growth (FCFbG) to $3.3–$3.5 billion. ^[8]
2026: New guidance calls for Adjusted EBITDA of $6.8–$7.6 billion and Adjusted FCFbG of $3.925–$4.725 billion—a step‑up driven by fleet additions and robust U.S. power demand. ^[9]

On the call and in media briefings, Vistra linked the stronger 2026 outlook to expanding gas‑fired and clean‑energy capacity amid demand from AI and cryptocurrency data centers and broader electrification. ^[10]

Capital allocation: buybacks extended

Vistra’s board authorized an additional $1.0 billion of share repurchases (expected to be utilized by year‑end 2027). Since November 2021, the company has executed ~$5.6B in buybacks, reducing shares outstanding to roughly 339 million as of Oct. 31. Liquidity stood at ~$3.7B at quarter‑end. ^[11]

Strategy & growth moves you need to know

Gas fleet expansion: Vistra completed the acquisition of seven modern natural‑gas plants totaling about 2,600 MW (closed in Q3). ^[12]
New build in West Texas: The company plans two new gas units with ~860 MW of capacity to support the Permian region’s surging power needs. ^[13]
Long‑dated nuclear offtake: A 20‑year PPA for 1,200 MW from Comanche Peak Nuclear was signed with an investment‑grade counterparty, underwriting long‑term plant operations. ^[14]
Solar + storage & Big Tech PPAs: Vistra advanced multiple solar/storage projects and highlighted PPAs with Amazon (Texas, 200‑MW Oak Hill) and Microsoft (Illinois, 405‑MW Pulaski). ^[15]

Reuters echoed the themes behind today’s guide—demand growth from data centers and electrification—and noted the new $1B buyback approval. ^[16]

Risk management snapshot

Vistra’s hedge book remains robust: ~98% of expected 2025 generation volumes hedged, ~96% for 2026, and ~70% for 2027 as of Oct. 31, 2025—supporting visibility into cash flow. ^[17]

Market reaction & what’s next

As of 15:02 UTC, VST traded near $183.19, down about 3.3% intraday (day’s range: $179.84–$191.20; volume ~1.29M). Markets appeared to weigh the revenue decline against stronger 2026 cash‑flow visibility and capital returns.

Earnings call/webcast: Management scheduled its Q3 2025 call for 10:00 a.m. ET today; a replay will be available on the investor site. ^[18]

Why it matters

Vistra’s steel‑in‑the‑ground growth (gas, nuclear, storage), long‑dated contracts, and hedging discipline position it to capitalize on structural U.S. load growth—particularly from AI/data centers and industrial onshoring—even as quarterly results can be volatile due to commodity marks and plant outages. Today’s tighter 2025 and bigger 2026 outlook, plus more buybacks, underscore that strategy. ^[19]

Key numbers (Q3 2025)

GAAP Net Income: $652M
Adjusted EBITDA: $1.581B
Revenue: $4.971B
2025 Adj. EBITDA guide: $5.7–$5.9B
2026 Adj. EBITDA guide: $6.8–$7.6B
New buyback authorization: $1.0B (through 2027)

Sources: Company release and independent coverage. ^[20]

What to watch next

Execution on West Texas gas projects and integration of the seven acquired plants. ^[21]
Any additional long‑term nuclear offtake deals following the Comanche Peak PPA. ^[22]
Load‑growth signals from hyperscale data centers and crypto mining, which continue to drive U.S. power demand higher. ^[23]

Disclosure: This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Expert Opinion: Jim Cramer on Vistra Stock #shorts

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Mateusz Kaczmarek Latest posts

A technology and finance expert writing for TS2.tech. He analyzes developments in satellites, telecommunications, and artificial intelligence, with a focus on their impact on global markets. Author of industry reports and market commentary, often cited in tech and business media. Passionate about innovation and the digital economy.

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