Vistra (VST) Stock on November 23, 2025: Price, Fresh News and What Comes Next for the Nuclear‑Powered Utility

Vistra Corp (NYSE: VST) heads into the new trading week as one of the most closely watched utility stocks in the S&P 500. After a sharp pullback late last week, multiple fresh 13F filings and new analyst commentary landed today, November 23, 2025, giving investors an updated picture of who’s buying, who’s selling, and how Wall Street views the stock.

Below is a complete rundown of today’s Vistra stock news and what it could mean for the shares.

Key takeaways

Share price: Vistra closed Friday, November 21, at $168.59, down about 3% on the day, with volume just over 6.3 million shares, putting it roughly 22% below its September all‑time high around $217. ^[1]
YTD performance: Even after the pullback, Vistra is still up roughly 23–30% year to date, outpacing the broader utility‑electric power group. ^[2]
Fundamentals: Q3 2025 revenue missed expectations by about 20%, but adjusted EBITDA hit $1.58 billion, 2025 guidance was narrowed higher, and Vistra added $1 billion to its share‑repurchase program. ^[3]
Capital returns: The board approved a $0.227 quarterly dividend (about $0.91 annually, ~0.5% yield) and continues an aggressive buyback plan with $2.2 billion remaining, targeted to be fully used by 2027. ^[4]
Wall Street stance: 18 analysts now rate Vistra a “Buy” on average, with a $234.36 12‑month price target — about 39% upside from recent levels — but Zacks keeps it at Rank #3 (Hold) due to rich valuation. ^[5]

Vistra stock price recap heading into November 23, 2025

U.S. markets are closed today (Sunday), so the most recent trading data comes from Friday, November 21:

Last close: $168.59
Day’s range: roughly $162.44 – $173.68
Volume: ~6.3 million shares, slightly above recent averages ^[6]
52‑week range: about $90.51 – $219.82 ^[7]

Friday’s close capped a tough two‑day stretch: the stock fell about 3% on Thursday and another 3% on Friday, landing it on several “top losers” lists despite a broader market rally. ^[8]

Still, Vistra remains one of the standout performers in utilities over the last couple of years. A recent Zacks/Nasdaq note highlighted that VST rallied 29.9% year to date versus a 25.6% gain for its electric‑power peer group and a smaller gain for the overall utilities sector. ^[9]

Bottom line on price: Vistra has pulled back from euphoric highs, but it’s still sitting on strong multi‑year gains, making valuation and forward growth the key questions rather than simple “is it alive?” price action.

All the fresh Vistra stock news dated November 23, 2025

Today’s Vistra news flow is dominated by institutional ownership updates and new commentary on capital efficiency. Here are the notable items from November 23:

1. Big institutions reshuffle their Vistra positions

A cluster of 13F‑related stories from MarketBeat revealed how several major money managers adjusted their Vistra stakes in Q2:

Legal & General Group Plc
- Increased its Vistra position by 10.5%, now holding 1,541,199 shares (about 0.45% of the company), valued around $298.7 million. ^[10]
- The same report notes that institutional investors collectively own about 90.9% of Vistra’s float, underlining how “owned by the pros” this stock has become. ^[11]
MUFG Securities Americas Inc.
- Lifted its stake by 24.9%, buying 1,498 shares to reach 7,520 shares worth roughly $1.46 million. ^[12]
Nemes Rush Group LLC
- Boosted its Vistra holdings by 133.6%, adding 8,717 shares to reach 15,241 shares, valued near $2.95 million. ^[13]
Rhumbline Advisers
- Trimmed its position by 10.1%, selling 71,420 shares and ending Q2 with 639,067 shares, or about 0.19% of Vistra, worth roughly $123.9 million. ^[14]
TD Waterhouse Canada Inc.
- Cut its stake by 46.2%, selling 4,431 shares and retaining 5,168 shares (about $0.96 million of stock). ^[15]
American Century Companies Inc.
- Separately, American Century was reported to have grown its Vistra position by 26.8%, another sign that active managers are still comfortable adding exposure on pullbacks. ^[16]

Taken together, these filings show a mixed but active institutional picture: some marquee firms like Legal & General and American Century are adding, while others (Rhumbline, TD Waterhouse) are taking profits or reallocating.

2. Insider selling remains heavy

Several of today’s institutional pieces also re‑highlight recent insider selling trends:

Executive Vice President Carrie Lee Kirby sold roughly 58,275 shares (around $10.2 million).
CEO Jim Burke sold about 43,074 shares (near $9 million).
In total, insiders have sold about 860,120 Vistra shares worth approximately $171.8 million over the last 90 days, and insiders now own roughly 1.42% of the company. ^[17]

Insider selling doesn’t automatically mean “run away” — executives often diversify after big runs — but the scale here reinforces the message that management has already crystallized a meaningful amount of their gains.

3. Vistra pops up in the AI‑bubble avoidance trade

A new feature at 24/7 Wall St, “2 World Class Funds That Avoid The AI Bubble and Mag 7 Stocks,” highlights the Vanguard Utilities Index Fund ETF (VPU) as a way to play non‑tech growth.

Vistra shows up prominently in that discussion:

VPU has returned 19.31% year to date with zero Magnificent 7 tech holdings, leaning instead into traditional utilities.
Vistra is the ETF’s fifth‑largest holding at 4.44% of assets, behind names like NextEra, Constellation, Southern, and Duke Energy. ^[18]

In the same piece, VST is listed among the top losing stocks of the latest session, down 2.99% to $168.59 on volume of about 6.3 million shares, highlighting just how quickly sentiment can swing even in a “defensive” sector. ^[19]

This combination — core position in a major ETF plus short‑term price pressure — often matters for technical traders: ETF demand can provide a structural bid over time, even while short‑term flows remain choppy.

4. New caution flag: “Be Wary Of Vistra and Its Returns On Capital”

On the more skeptical side, Simply Wall St published “Be Wary Of Vistra (NYSE:VST) And Its Returns On Capital” today, syndicated through Yahoo Finance. ^[20]

While we can’t see every detail of the piece, Simply Wall St’s “be wary” series typically focuses on:

Return on capital employed (ROCE) and whether it is improving over time.
How effectively a company is reinvesting its cash back into the business.

The headline signals that, in their view, Vistra’s capital efficiency isn’t as compelling as its share‑price performance might suggest. That’s not a verdict that the business is weak — but it does add to the chorus saying investors should not blindly extrapolate past stock gains if returns on new investment remain modest.

Fundamentals after Q3 2025: earnings miss, but guidance and cash flow stay strong

Vistra’s November 6 earnings release and subsequent coverage are still setting the fundamental narrative investors are reacting to today.

Q3 2025 results at a glance

According to the company’s own release, for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, Vistra delivered: ^[21]

Operating revenue: about $4.97 billion, down ~21% year over year and well below Wall Street estimates near $6.1–$6.6 billion.
GAAP net income:$652 million, down from $1.84 billion a year earlier, largely due to less favorable mark‑to‑market gains on derivatives and the impact of a major plant outage (Martin Lake Unit 1).
Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA:$1.581 billion, up roughly $143 million versus Q3 2024, driven by higher realized energy and capacity prices plus nuclear production tax credits.

The key nuance: headline revenue and net income looked ugly, but cash‑flow and EBITDA trends were solid, making this more of an accounting optics issue than a fundamental collapse.

Guidance and capital allocation

Management used the Q3 release to tighten and extend guidance and upsize capital returns: ^[22]

2025 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA: narrowed to $5.7–$5.9 billion.
2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance: initiated at $6.8–$7.6 billion, implying ~22–29% growth versus the mid‑point of 2025 guidance.
2026 Adjusted FCFbG: guided to $3.925–$4.725 billion.
2027 “midpoint opportunity”: outlined at $7.4–$7.8 billion in EBITDA.
Hedging: as of October 31, Vistra had hedged ~98% of expected 2025 generation, ~96% for 2026 and ~70% for 2027, which helps smooth cash flow and support those guidance ranges. ^[23]

On shareholder returns:

Vistra has executed about $5.6 billion of share repurchases since late 2021, cutting the share count by roughly 30% to about 339 million shares. ^[24]
The board added another $1.0 billion to the buyback authorization, with $2.2 billion now expected to be used by year‑end 2027. ^[25]

Combine that with the $0.227 quarterly dividend (about $0.91 annually, yield around 0.5–0.6% at current prices) and you get a story heavily tilted toward buybacks first, dividends second. ^[26]

Growth drivers: gas, nuclear and the AI‑powered demand boom

Vistra has aggressively repositioned itself from a Texas‑heavy generator into a national, diversified power platform:

It operates about 41 GW of generation capacity across natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar and battery storage, serving roughly 5 million retail customers in 20 states. ^[27]
The recently closed acquisition of seven modern natural gas plants (2,600 MW) from Lotus Infrastructure Partners expands its footprint into PJM, New England, New York and California, improving geographic diversity and flexibility. ^[28]
It is building two new natural gas units totaling ~860 MW in West Texas, aimed at serving the electrifying Permian Basin and fast‑growing data‑center load. ^[29]
A new 20‑year PPA for 1,200 MW from its Comanche Peak Nuclear Plant and a 20‑year license extension for the Perry nuclear plant to 2046 further lock in long‑term, carbon‑free baseload revenues. ^[30]

Overlay that with macro trends:

A surge in AI‑driven data centers and EV charging is pushing up power demand in key markets.
Policy shifts in Washington have leaned back toward “reliable” gas and nuclear over intermittent renewables in some narratives, which 24/7 Wall St and others cite as a tailwind for utilities ETFs like VPU — and by extension, for Vistra as a top holding. ^[31]

This is the core bull thesis: Vistra sits at the intersection of rising power demand, nuclear’s renaissance, and flexible gas capacity, with long‑term contracts and hedges giving cash‑flow visibility.

How Wall Street sees Vistra today

Analyst ratings and price targets

MarketBeat’s consolidated forecast, updated through November 21, shows: ^[32]

18 analysts covering Vistra.
Consensus rating:“Buy” (average rating score ~3.06 on a 4‑point scale).
Breakdown: 4 Strong Buys, 11 Buys, 3 Holds, 0 Sells.
Average 12‑month price target:$234.36, implying about 39% upside from the recent ~$168–169 share price.
Target range:$152 (lowest) to $295 (highest).

Zacks, in its November 20 note “Vistra Outperforms Its Industry YTD: Buy, Hold or Sell the Stock?”, emphasizes several positives: ^[33]

Strong YTD performance vs industry and sector.
High exposure to clean and low‑carbon generation, including nuclear.
A robust hedging program (98% of 2025 output, 96% of 2026) stabilizing earnings.
An active M&A and capital‑return strategy.

However, Zacks also notes that:

Vistra’s forward P/E is around 21–22x, versus an industry average near 15x.
The stock is trading at a premium valuation after its massive multi‑year run.

Result: Zacks assigns Rank #3 (Hold), arguing current holders may want to stay put and collect dividends/buyback support, while prospective buyers could wait for a more attractive entry point.

Valuation snapshots

Looking at recent aggregate data: ^[34]

Trailing P/E: ~60–61x based on trailing twelve‑month EPS.
Forward P/E: ~18–22x, depending on whose 2025 earnings estimates you use.
Market cap: around $57–59 billion.
Dividend yield: ~0.5–0.6%, with a payout ratio in the low‑teens.
Beta: about 1.3–1.4, meaning Vistra is more volatile than the overall market despite being a utility.

This is not your sleepy “bond proxy” utility — it trades more like a high‑beta growth stock with utility cash flows underneath.

The bear case: what could go wrong

Even fans of the stock should keep some key risks in mind:

Premium valuation + leverage
- With P/E multiples well above utility peers and a debt‑to‑equity ratio around 5.7x, Vistra is not a “deep value” story. ^[35]
- If power prices weaken, AI‑related demand disappoints, or regulators turn more hostile to fossil/nuclear assets, the stock could de‑rate quickly.
Accounting volatility and complex derivatives
- Q3 showed how swings in mark‑to‑market gains/losses on hedges can make GAAP earnings very noisy, with net income dropping 65% YoY even as EBITDA improved. ^[36]
- That complexity can spook generalist investors during rough patches.
Insider and executive optics
- Hefty insider selling, plus recent headlines about CEO Jim Burke’s potential $340 million+ payout tied to stock performance, can draw scrutiny and raise questions about governance and alignment. ^[37]
Capital efficiency concerns
- Today’s Simply Wall St piece suggests Vistra’s returns on capital may not be improving as fast as investors might hope, given the scale of reinvestment. ^[38]
- High reported ROE is partly a function of leverage; if underlying returns on new projects slip, the stock’s premium could be harder to justify.

The bull case: why investors still like VST

On the other hand, bulls can point to several powerful arguments:

Secular demand and strategic assets
- Nuclear, efficient gas, and grid‑balancing storage are exactly the assets data‑center operators, AI workloads, and electrifying industries want. Vistra has them, in size. ^[39]
Long‑term contracts and hedging
- High hedge coverage out to 2027 and long‑dated PPAs (like Comanche Peak) give unusual earnings visibility for a merchant generator. ^[40]
Shareholder‑friendly playbook
- A clear commitment to large buybacks, regular dividend hikes, and targeted M&A that’s accretive to cash flow supports the investment case even if multiples compress modestly. ^[41]
Still‑bullish analyst community
- With a consensus “Buy” rating and an average target nearly 40% above current levels, Wall Street is signaling that it believes earnings growth can catch up to the valuation over time. ^[42]

Is Vistra stock a buy, hold, or sell right now?

Only you can decide how Vistra fits into your portfolio and risk tolerance, but today’s data points suggest a balanced view:

Vistra may make sense for you if:

You want exposure to rising power demand from AI, data centers, EVs and industrial electrification.
You’re comfortable owning a higher‑beta utility that trades more like a growth stock.
You believe management can deliver on its 2026–2027 EBITDA and cash‑flow guidance while integrating new gas and nuclear projects.

You might be more cautious if:

You’re focused on value or high income — the dividend yield is still modest, and the stock trades at a premium to peers.
You’re wary of complex hedging and derivative accounting, which can make reported results volatile.
Heavy insider selling and questions around capital efficiency make you prefer utilities with cleaner balance sheets and simpler stories.

For many investors, the current consensus “Hold” tone from Zacks and the Buy‑but‑premium message from most analysts translates into something like:

“Vistra looks like a long‑term winner, but after a huge run and a recent guidance‑driven re‑rating, new money may want to be selective and patient on entry price.”

What to watch in the weeks ahead

If you’re tracking VST, key upcoming catalysts and datapoints include:

Any updates on the Lotus gas plant integration and the ramp‑up of new West Texas units. ^[43]
Regulatory and policy developments around nuclear life‑extensions and gas reliability rules. ^[44]
Power‑price trends and commentary from peers like Constellation and NextEra, which can shift sentiment across the entire group. ^[45]
Any change in insider trading patterns (a slowdown in selling, or meaningful open‑market buys, would be noteworthy). ^[46]

Final note

All figures and news items above are based on publicly available information as of November 23, 2025 and may change as markets reopen. This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

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