Wall Street Today, Nov. 21, 2025: Nasdaq 100 Rout Deepens as Traders Debate AI Bubble and Wave‑4 Correction

U.S. stocks are heading into Friday’s session on edge after a violent reversal on Thursday wiped out big intraday gains, hammered tech, and left the Nasdaq 100 around 8% below its late‑October peak. ^[1]

Below is a news-style breakdown of what’s happening today (21.11.2025), why it’s happening, and how analysts are framing the move using both macro data and technical tools like Elliott Wave.

Key Takeaways for November 21, 2025

Thursday’s whiplash selloff: The Dow fell 0.8%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite sank about 2.2% Thursday, closing at their lowest levels since early September after an intraday swing of nearly 5 percentage points in the Nasdaq. ^[2]
Futures point to more pressure: Early Friday, Dow futures are slightly higher while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures trade lower, signaling another weak open for tech-heavy benchmarks. ^[3]
AI bellwether Nvidia is at the center of the storm: After briefly surging on blockbuster earnings, Nvidia reversed sharply, erasing nearly $400 billion in market value at one point and reigniting fears that AI valuations have run too hot. ^[4]
Nasdaq 100 correction debate: Some Elliott Wave analysts still see the drop as a normal wave‑4 pullback in a longer-term uptrend, while others warn that an 8% decline and weakening breadth may mark the start of a multi‑week downtrend. ^[5]
Macro backdrop is muddy: A delayed U.S. jobs report came in stronger than expected while unemployment rose, leaving traders split on whether the Fed will cut rates in December and fueling volatility across stocks and crypto. ^[6]

How We Got Here: A Reversal for the Ages

On Thursday, November 20, Wall Street staged one of its sharpest intraday reversals since the April 2025 “Liberation Day” tariff shock that triggered the spring crash. ^[7]

The S&P 500 was up almost 2% at one point before closing down 1.6% at 6,538.76.
The Nasdaq Composite swung from a gain of roughly 2.6% to finish down about 2.15% at 22,078.05, its lowest close since September 11.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 45,752.26, down 386 points (‑0.84%) after being up more than 700 points earlier in the session. ^[8]

Wall Street’s fear gauge, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), ended Thursday at its highest level since late April, underscoring how abruptly sentiment has flipped from complacent to cautious. ^[9]

At the center of the drama was Nvidia. The world’s most valuable company smashed earnings and raised guidance, with its CEO pushing back against AI-bubble narratives on the earnings call. But the stock whipsawed from a ~5% intraday gain to a ~3% loss by the close. ^[10]

An analysis from OANDA’s MarketPulse notes that this “failed” post‑earnings rally carved out a bearish engulfing candle on Nvidia’s chart—similar to a pattern seen after its February 2025 results, which preceded a roughly 30% slide over the following month. ^[11]

That sharp sentiment flip in the AI poster child triggered what MarketPulse called “negative reflexivity” across the Nasdaq 100, dragging the broader index lower and damaging its medium-term uptrend. ^[12]

Futures on November 21: Dow Tries to Stabilize, Tech Still Under Fire

Early Friday, November 21, U.S. equity futures show a market still struggling to find its footing:

Dow E‑minis: Up around 0.1%.
S&P 500 E‑minis: Down roughly 0.3%.
Nasdaq 100 E‑minis: Down about 0.7% by around 05:15 a.m. ET. ^[13]

A separate look at futures via Benzinga shows a similar pattern a little later in the premarket: Dow futures modestly higher, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures modestly in the red and small-caps also softer. ^[14]

ETF proxies tell the same story:

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) slipped below a closely watched 6,550 support level on its underlying index, after also losing its 50‑day moving average earlier this week.
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, was down close to 0.8% in premarket trading. ^[15]

In other words, Friday is starting not with capitulation, but with a slow bleed, particularly in tech and growth stocks, as traders digest Thursday’s shock.

Macro Drivers: Hot‑and‑Cold Jobs Data and a Fed in Limbo

Part of the unease comes from the long-delayed September U.S. jobs report, released after the government reopened from a record shutdown. The data showed:

Nonfarm payrolls rising by 119,000, well above the 50,000 economists had expected.
Unemployment ticking higher, complicating the picture for the labor market and Fed policy. ^[16]

The Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to skip the October jobs report entirely and combine October and November data into a single, high‑stakes release in mid‑December—just days before the Fed’s next policy decision. ^[17]

That data gap is feeding uncertainty:

According to futures pricing tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, traders now see roughly a one‑third chance of a December rate cut, down from earlier expectations of a more likely move. ^[18]
Several Fed officials, including Governor Lisa Cook, have warned about elevated valuations across equities, corporate bonds, and housing—language that markets interpret as a caution against easy policy. ^[19]

Meanwhile, the U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield sits just above 4%, and the 2‑year hovers in the mid‑3% range, reflecting a market that is no longer fully priced for rapid easing. ^[20]

Crypto Joins the Risk‑Off Trade

The risk aversion is not limited to stocks. Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies are sliding hard, with digital assets dragged down by the same reassessment of risk that’s battering AI and growth stocks.

Bitcoin has fallen below $86,000, heading for a steep weekly loss and trading more than 20% below its late‑October levels above $110,000. ^[21]
Ethereum, XRP, Solana, Cardano and other altcoins have dropped between roughly 5% and 9% in the last 24 hours, according to crypto market trackers. ^[22]
Crypto‑linked equities like Coinbase and MicroStrategy are down in premarket trading as investors shun high‑beta, speculative exposures. ^[23]

The message from both equity and crypto markets is the same: the tide is going out on the most crowded risk trades, at least for now.

Is the Nasdaq 100 Pullback Just a Wave‑4 Correction?

The Nasdaq 100 is ground zero for this debate.

The Elliott Wave “Wave‑4” Case

In an analysis published on November 19, Elliott Wave specialist Dr. Arnout ter Schure argued that the Nasdaq 100 has been working through a minor wave‑4 pullback within a larger five‑wave impulse that began in early April. ^[24]

Key points from that view:

The index peaked near 26,182 on October 29, a bit shy of a long‑targeted 26,700 level.
It then broke below a series of “warning levels,” suggesting a larger W‑4 correction could extend ideally into the 20,485–22,835 area, with an initial target zone around 23,000–24,000.
Nonetheless, the post‑high decline still looks like a three‑wave zigzag, a pattern that is usually corrective rather than the start of a full‑blown bear market.
Positive divergences in momentum indicators hint that selling pressure is losing force, which often precedes a rebound and a potential final wave‑5 rally toward 26,700. ^[25]

In plain English, this camp sees the current weakness as a painful but normal mid‑trend shakeout, not a structural top—provided key supports hold on a weekly closing basis.

Or the Start of a Deeper Medium‑Term Downtrend?

Other technicians are less sanguine.

A fresh note from Kelvin Wong at MarketPulse on November 21 highlights several worrying developments: ^[26]

The Nasdaq 100 has now dropped about 8% from its all‑time high of 26,288 on October 30.
Thursday’s failed intraday recovery saw the index pierce and then lose its 50‑day moving average, undercutting a potential bullish reversal setup.
Market breadth has deteriorated sharply: the percentage of Nasdaq 100 components trading above their 200‑day moving averages has plunged from 50% on November 12 to only 28% as of November 20, well below healthy bull‑market readings.

Wong’s “preferred trend bias” for the next one to three weeks is now a medium‑term downtrend, with key technical levels:

Bearish pivot / resistance: Around 25,290, near the 20‑day moving average.
Next supports:23,455 and 22,990, corresponding to Fibonacci retracement zones of the April–October rally.
Line in the sand: A deeper drop toward 22,250—the 200‑day moving average—would be a true test of whether this is still a corrective phase or something more serious. ^[27]

An alternative bullish scenario remains on the table: if the Nasdaq 100 can reclaim 25,745 and close above it, Wong sees scope for a push back toward the highs around 26,288. But for now, his base case is that we are in the early innings of a multi‑week corrective decline. ^[28]

What Yesterday’s Bullish Forecasts Got Right (and Wrong)

Interestingly, just hours before Thursday’s reversal, technical strategist Christopher Lewis at FXEmpire sounded relatively upbeat on U.S. indices: ^[29]

He noted that the Nasdaq 100 was rallying in early trade and still attracting dip‑buyers, though it was struggling to get through resistance near 25,000.
The Dow Jones 30 was testing the bottom of its previous channel and its 50‑day EMA, with upside potential toward 47,000 if it could break higher.
The S&P 500 was battling resistance along its prior uptrend line, with a potential move toward 6,800 in a continued bull scenario.

Lewis framed dips as buying opportunities within broader uptrends and flagged the possibility of a classic “Santa Claus rally” into year‑end as underperforming managers chase benchmarks. ^[30]

That bullish case hasn’t disappeared—fund flow data still show tech on track for record annual inflows in 2025, according to Bank of America research cited by Reuters—but Thursday’s price action shows how quickly sentiment can switch when crowded trades wobble. ^[31]

Key Levels to Watch Today

Putting the various analyses together, here are the levels traders are watching most closely on November 21:

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

Immediate resistance: ~25,000–25,290
Short‑term bear confirmation: Sustained trade below the 50‑day moving average and failure at 25,290. ^[32]
Support zone 1: 23,455–22,990
Major support: ~22,250 (near the 200‑day moving average). ^[33]

From an Elliott Wave perspective, a weekly close below ~24,000 would significantly increase the odds that a larger fourth wave is unfolding rather than just a shallow shakeout. ^[34]

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

Recent breakdown: Index slipped below a widely watched support near 6,550 and lost its 50‑day moving average earlier in the week. ^[35]
Upside marker: Regaining that old support area and the prior uptrend line would help re‑establish the bull trend; failure leaves the index vulnerable to further downside toward prior consolidation zones. ^[36]

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Support:45,000 area.
Resistance:47,000 remains the next big upside target if buyers can defend the current channel retest. ^[37]

What It Means for Traders and Long‑Term Investors

For short‑term traders, this is a textbook high‑volatility environment:

Intraday swings are expanding, slippage is rising, and correlations between risk assets are tightening.
Position sizing and risk controls (stops, hedges, reduced leverage) matter more than the precise outcome of any one trade.

For long‑term investors, the message is more nuanced:

On the one hand, earnings from AI leaders like Nvidia still show strong fundamental momentum, and long‑term growth narratives have not vanished overnight. ^[38]
On the other, valuations in big‑cap tech remain elevated versus history, and both the Fed and several analysts warn that pockets of the market have become frothy, making sharp drawdowns more likely when sentiment shifts. ^[39]

Whether you lean toward the “wave‑4 correction” camp or the “medium‑term downtrend” camp, the common thread is this: volatility is back, and markets are moving more on expectations and positioning than on any single data point.

What to Watch Next

Over the coming days and weeks, markets will be especially sensitive to:

Fed commentary from officials speaking throughout today and into next week. ^[40]
The combined October–November payrolls report in mid‑December, which could make or break hopes for a near‑term rate cut. ^[41]
Price action in Nvidia and other AI bellwethers, which now act as a barometer for the entire growth complex. ^[42]
The resilience (or lack thereof) of key support levels in the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500.

As always, this coverage is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as personalized investment advice. Anyone trading or investing around this volatility should carefully consider their risk tolerance, time horizon, and need for independent professional guidance.

AI Is Fueling Wall Street’s Biggest Boom in 2025 💥