- Kalshi’s $300M windfall: MIT-bred prediction market startup Kalshi has raised over $300 million in new funding at a $5 billion valuation [1]. The Series D round, led by Sequoia Capital with new investor Andreessen Horowitz, also included Paradigm, CapitalG, and Coinbase Ventures [2]. This more than doubles Kalshi’s valuation from just a few months ago and follows a $185 million round in June that valued it at $2 billion [3].
- Global expansion plans: Armed with fresh capital, Kalshi announced plans to expand its event trading platform beyond the U.S. to serve customers in over 140 countries [4]. The platform – which lets users trade yes/no contracts on real-world events ranging from sports to economic indicators – is on pace to handle $50 billion in annualized trading volume, a meteoric rise from roughly $300 million last year [5].
- Market leader status: In September, Kalshi surged past rival Polymarket to capture over 60% of global prediction market volume [6]. Kalshi saw about $1.3 billion in trading volume in September, nearly double Polymarket’s ~$773 million [7]. Just one year ago, Kalshi’s share was a mere 3% of the market [8] – underscoring the platform’s explosive growth, driven largely by an aggressive push into sports-based event contracts.
- Polymarket’s $2 billion countermove: Earlier this week, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) – the Fortune 500 owner of the NYSE – revealed plans to invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing Kalshi’s top competitor at roughly $9 billion [9] [10]. This strategic stake by Wall Street’s biggest exchange operator is a landmark endorsement for prediction markets, signaling their move into mainstream finance. ICE’s CEO Jeffrey Sprecher hailed the deal as blending a centuries-old exchange with a “forward-thinking, revolutionary” crypto startup bridging legacy finance and DeFi [11].
- Regulatory tug-of-war: Kalshi operates under U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight as a regulated Designated Contract Market, giving it federal approval to list event contracts [12] [13]. However, state gambling regulators are pushing back – arguing Kalshi’s sports-related markets are essentially unlicensed sports betting. In Massachusetts, officials sued Kalshi for allegedly operating as an illegal sportsbook after it handled over $1 billion in sports wagers in the first half of 2025 [14]. Kalshi has fought back, suing regulators in Ohio and elsewhere, contending that event contracts fall under federal jurisdiction, not state gambling law [15].
- Traditional sportsbooks on notice: The rise of prediction exchanges is sending shockwaves through the gambling industry. DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) stock has slid nearly 40% from its 2025 peak, a drop attributed in part to concerns that platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are encroaching on sports betting’s turf [16]. These startups now offer complex sports parlays and NFL markets – products that closely mimic sportsbook bets [17] [18]. “Wall Street may be downplaying the tectonic shift” such platforms pose to traditional bookmakers, one activist short-seller warned [19]. Gaming industry insiders call prediction markets both a competitive threat and “a regulatory dilemma” for casinos and betting apps [20].
- Surging interest and accuracy: Once a niche for academics and political junkies, prediction markets are booming after high-profile successes. During the 2024 U.S. elections, millions of users wagered over $3 billion on Kalshi and Polymarket, producing crowd-driven forecasts “far more accurate than the most highly regarded polls,” according to Fortune [21]. This validation of the “wisdom of crowds” has fueled investor enthusiasm. Analysts project the sector’s total volume will explode from about $1.5 billion in 2024 to $95 billion by 2035, as betting on real-world events edges into the financial mainstream [22].
Kalshi’s $300 Million Cash Infusion and Rapid Ascent
Kalshi’s latest funding round – over $300 million at a $5 billion valuation – marks one of the largest bets yet on the emerging prediction market industry [23]. The startup, founded by young MIT graduates in 2018, became the first federally regulated events exchange in the U.S. after gaining CFTC approval in 2020. Investors have now more than doubled Kalshi’s valuation since June, when it was valued at $2 billion following a $185 million Series C [24]. The hefty new round was led by top-tier Silicon Valley firms Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz, joined by crypto-focused backers like Paradigm and Coinbase Ventures, as well as Alphabet’s growth fund CapitalG [25]. This star-studded roster signals confidence that Kalshi can “bring prediction markets into the financial mainstream,” as CEO Tarek Mansour often touts.
Growth metrics underline Kalshi’s momentum. The platform’s trading volume is now on track to reach $50 billion on an annualized basis, a staggering leap from roughly $300 million in annual volume just a year ago [26]. Much of this growth came in recent months as Kalshi introduced a slew of sports-related markets ahead of the NFL season and other popular events. By September 2025, Kalshi was handling about $1.3 billion in trades per month – overtaking long-time rival Polymarket in volume and claiming roughly 62% of global market share for the first time [27] [28]. (Just one year prior, Kalshi’s share was a paltry 3% [29].) The company attributes the surge to its compliance-first approach unlocking participation from U.S. users, plus new offerings like parlay event contracts that mirror the excitement of multi-leg sports bets [30].
“Sports-related predictions accounted for over 75% of Kalshi’s activity” during the kick-off of the NFL season, regulators noted, highlighting how the exchange’s expansion beyond politics and economics has turbocharged its growth [31] [32]. Kalshi’s Head of Crypto, John Wang, has emphasized the platform’s goal of ubiquity – aiming to be integrated into “every major crypto app” within a year to broaden access [33]. The startup already inked distribution deals allowing retail traders to access Kalshi event markets via popular brokerage apps like Robinhood and Webull [34].
Flush with cash, Kalshi is now charting a global expansion. Previously limited to U.S. users, the company plans to extend service to 140+ countries in 2024 [35], leveraging its new capital to navigate international regulations and infrastructure. If successful, this move positions Kalshi to compete on Polymarket’s traditional turf – the rest of the world – while cementing its lead at home. “Kalshi’s rising position as a key player” reflects not just its volume gains, but also its head start in earning regulatory trust [36]. By holding a federal license, Kalshi can openly advertise and partner in the U.S., a market advantage that its competitors are now racing to match.
However, Kalshi’s rapid ascent hasn’t come without controversy or opposition – especially when it comes to betting on sports and elections. In May 2025, the CFTC unexpectedly dropped a legal challenge against Kalshi’s proposed election contracts, clearing a path (for now) for the exchange to list derivatives on political outcomes [37]. Yet even as federal regulators have warmed, state authorities have bristled. Multiple states – including Massachusetts, New Jersey, Ohio, and South Carolina – argue that Kalshi’s sports-focused markets “do not differ materially… from offerings found in casinos [and] sportsbooks,” as one lawsuit put it [38] [39]. These states insist Kalshi must obtain gambling licenses to operate within their borders, rather than relying solely on its federal CFTC status. The pushback underscores an unresolved jurisdictional gray area: Are event contracts taxed and regulated as commodities or as sports wagers? Kalshi maintains that, legally, its markets are commodities trading and preempt state gambling laws [40]. To settle the matter, the startup has even taken the offensive – filing a federal suit against Ohio regulators in early October after they ordered Kalshi to cease offering sports contracts to Ohio residents [41]. The outcome of these fights could set critical precedent for the entire industry.
Polymarket Strikes Back – A $2 Billion Bet from Wall Street’s Biggest Exchange
On the other side of the prediction market duopoly stands Polymarket, a decentralized, crypto-powered platform that had long been the global volume leader before Kalshi’s recent surge. This week, Polymarket grabbed headlines of its own by securing a massive $2 billion strategic investment commitment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) – the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange [42]. The deal, first reported by Reuters and The Wall Street Journal, values Polymarket at approximately $8–9 billion (pre-money) and could be officially announced imminently [43]. ICE confirmed it intends to take a significant stake, signaling an extraordinary vote of confidence by traditional finance in the once-fringe realm of crypto prediction markets.
Why would a 230-year-old exchange operator bet big on Polymarket? According to ICE CEO Jeffrey Sprecher, the appeal lies in fusing the old with the new. “Our investment blends ICE…founded in 1792, with a forward-thinking company pioneering change in DeFi,” Sprecher said, calling Polymarket a user-driven innovator bridging legacy finance and blockchain markets [44]. In concrete terms, the partnership gives ICE a foothold in event-based trading and access to an emerging asset class of “crowd wisdom” data. Under the agreement, ICE will become the global distributor of Polymarket’s market data, repackaging the live odds and trading trends into sentiment indicators for institutional clients [45]. “The real prize for ICE is not just clearing contracts but monetizing the data – selling odds as sentiment factors alongside rates and credit,” explains Michael Ashley Schulman, CIO at Running Point Capital [46]. In other words, ICE sees value in the predictive insights generated by millions of bets – treating them as a new form of financial information that hedge funds, traders, and media might pay for.
For Polymarket, ICE’s deep pockets and credibility are a game-changer. “Our partnership with ICE marks a major step in bringing prediction markets into the financial mainstream,” said Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan, who noted the blue-chip backing provides “resources and credibility” that few startups can match [47]. The tie-up also completes Polymarket’s regulatory redemption arc in the U.S. Not long ago, in early 2022, Polymarket ran afoul of the CFTC for offering unregistered event contracts and paid a $1.4 million fine, effectively forcing it to block U.S. users [48]. After three years operating offshore, Polymarket plotted an American comeback by purchasing a small CFTC-licensed exchange called QCX (and its clearinghouse) for $112 million in mid-2025 [49]. That acquisition fast-tracked a no-action letter from the CFTC in September, “greenlighting” Polymarket’s re-entry into the U.S. market with full compliance [50]. By the end of September, Polymarket quietly launched a U.S.-facing site for invited users, pending a broader rollout once final regulatory formalities are wrapped up [51].
The ICE deal now turbocharges Polymarket’s expansion plans. On paper, Polymarket’s new $9 billion valuation vaults it ahead of Kalshi as the world’s most valuable prediction market platform [52]. It also arms Polymarket with up to $2 billion for growth – far exceeding the total ~$415 million Kalshi has raised to date [53]. Polymarket’s strategy has been to harness the global liquidity and innovation of crypto (its markets run on Ethereum/Polygon using USDC stablecoins) while also securing U.S. regulatory blessings. That “best of both worlds” approach just got a strong endorsement from ICE. The news even moved ICE’s own stock: shares of Intercontinental Exchange spiked about 4.4% intraday when talks of the Polymarket stake leaked, before settling up around 1% at close [54]. The market’s reaction underscored how significant this bet is – ICE is known as a conservative, heavily regulated firm, so its leap into crypto betting markets indicates strong conviction that event trading is an enormous opportunity [55].
It’s worth noting that Polymarket’s roster of backers was already studded with boldface names. Founders Fund (Peter Thiel) led a mid-2025 investment that valued Polymarket above $1 billion [56]. Weeks later, Donald Trump Jr. personally invested and joined Polymarket as an adviser [57], just ahead of the platform’s U.S. approval – a twist that one Fortune writer wryly noted, given that pundits once accused Polymarket of enabling “assassination markets” on Trump’s health [58]. The involvement of Trump’s son, alongside prominent crypto VCs, reflects how prediction markets have attracted interest across the political and financial spectrum. With ICE now in the fold, Polymarket is poised to leverage mainstream finance connections (and possibly even explore listing event contracts on ICE’s own exchanges down the line). Rumors also swirl that Polymarket may introduce a native token or expand into tokenized assets, which could further excite the crypto community – though the company hasn’t confirmed any token launch yet [59].
Prediction Markets Go Mainstream: From Niche Wagers to Big Business
The dueling announcements from Kalshi and Polymarket highlight a broader trend: prediction markets are stepping out of the shadows and into the limelight of finance and tech. Once confined to obscure betting sites and academic experiments, these platforms demonstrated their potential on the world stage during the 2024 U.S. elections. Over the course of the presidential race, millions of users wagered an estimated $3 billion+ on prediction markets – yielding real-time odds that proved “far more accurate than the most highly regarded polls,” according to Fortune [60]. For example, well before TV networks or pollsters, prediction markets correctly signaled the Electoral College outcome, vindicating the “wisdom of crowds” thesis. This high-profile success brought a surge of new users and attention to the sector.
Importantly, prediction markets have begun to blur the line between financial trading and betting. Platforms like Kalshi prefer the term “event contracts” and operate under commodity derivatives law, while others like Polymarket grew out of the crypto world’s decentralized finance (DeFi) ethos. Yet both fundamentally let people wager on real-world events – be it elections, Federal Reserve interest rate moves, sports games, or even pop culture happenings. Traders buy “Yes” or “No” shares on an outcome, and if the event happens, winning shares pay out $1 (losers expire worthless). Prices in between reflect the crowd’s implied probability of the event. This mechanism effectively turns collective opinion into a tradeable asset – one that can be extremely informative. Tesla CEO Elon Musk famously tweeted during the 2024 election that prediction markets were “more accurate than polls” because “actual money is on the line.” Indeed, proponents argue that having skin in the game produces better forecasts, as traders rapidly incorporate new information into prices.
Seeing this potential, investors and established firms are now piling in. Venture capital funding for prediction market startups has soared in the past two years. And beyond the VC realm, major financial players are cautiously embracing event trading. In addition to ICE’s big move, retail brokerage Robinhood began offering access to event markets through a partner exchange in 2023 [61]. Chicago’s CME Group, the largest U.S. derivatives exchange, reportedly explored a partnership with sports betting giant FanDuel to list sports-based event contracts [62]. Even traditional sportsbook operators are taking note: DraftKings recently hinted it “could launch its own predictions market” if needed [63], and has been monitoring the space as it develops. This flurry of activity suggests prediction markets are on the cusp of mainstream adoption as a new asset class somewhere between gambling and investing.
Industry analysts are bullish on the growth trajectory. Research cited by The Block projects the total volume traded on prediction platforms will balloon from roughly $1.5 billion in 2024 to $95 billion by 2035 – a 60-fold increase in just over a decade [64]. Such forecasts assume regulatory barriers gradually fall and more users get comfortable wagering on everything from elections to economic data releases. Advances in technology could further boost adoption: for instance, AI and machine learning might be used to create smarter odds or to hedge event risks, while blockchain tech (already used by Polymarket) can enable transparent and secure settlement of bets across borders.
However, to truly become “the next big financial frontier,” prediction markets must navigate significant legal and ethical challenges. Regulators worry about the implications of letting people bet on sensitive outcomes like elections, war, or disasters – markets that could be seen as incentivizing bad behavior or manipulation. (Kalshi faced this concern firsthand in 2022 when the CFTC initially barred its Congressional control election market on public interest grounds.) There are also ethical questions: for example, should the public be allowed to bet on a public figure’s health or death? The Fortune piece noted that when online chatter speculated about President Trump’s health, prediction markets showing odds on a successor triggered accusations of enabling an “assassination market” [65]. Both Kalshi and Polymarket walked a fine line during that episode, defending the legality of their markets (which were technically about whether the Vice President would assume office) while removing any overtly ghoulish wording. As these platforms scale, such controversies will likely recur, and operators may need to set prudent limits on what can be wagered.
Battle with Regulators: Federal Green Light vs. State Red Tape
One of the most pivotal issues for prediction markets in the U.S. is regulatory clarity – or the lack thereof. Kalshi’s experience to date epitomizes this tension between federal and state oversight. On one hand, Kalshi achieved what was long thought nearly impossible: it obtained a federal CFTC license as an exchange for event contracts, giving it a national stamp of approval. This required Kalshi to structure markets with strict rules (e.g. defining contracts as binary options with $1 settlement) and comply with the Commodity Exchange Act. The payoff was legitimacy: unlike unregulated crypto betting sites, Kalshi can openly operate in the U.S. and has even brought on major market makers and liquidity providers under CFTC supervision. In a significant recent victory, regulators in Washington backed down from challenging Kalshi’s proposed election markets – a reversal that came “shortly before Election Day 2024” and handed Kalshi a win on the federal stage [66].
At the state level, however, the company has run into a gauntlet of legal challenges. Because many of Kalshi’s hottest markets involve sports outcomes (NFL games, player statistics, etc.), state gambling regulators see them as sports bets in disguise. U.S. states typically have exclusive authority over sports wagering within their borders, and many have erected licensing regimes (and steep taxes) for sportsbooks post-PASPA. Kalshi’s stance is that its markets are federally regulated commodities, not gambling, so it shouldn’t need 50 separate state licenses. Unsurprisingly, states disagree. In September, Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Campbell sued Kalshi in state court, accusing it of operating an unlicensed sportsbook and even employing “casino-like” behavioral tricks to hook bettors [67] [68]. The complaint pointed to Kalshi’s introduction of parlay contracts (bets on multiple outcomes combined) as evidence that the platform was emulating a sports betting product [69]. It also noted that Kalshi’s marketing placed it alongside conventional sportsbook brands like DraftKings and FanDuel, blurring the lines in consumers’ minds [70]. Similarly, New Jersey and a consortium of other states have reportedly issued cease-and-desist letters or warnings, arguing Kalshi cannot offer sports markets in their jurisdictions without a gambling license [71].
Kalshi has responded with an aggressive legal strategy. In early October, the company filed a federal lawsuit against the Ohio Casino Control Commission, after Ohio regulators warned licensed businesses (like banks or payment processors) against facilitating Kalshi’s sports markets [72] [73]. Kalshi’s suit argues that Ohio’s actions are preempted by federal law since Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC. The company is seeking an injunction to block Ohio from interfering while the courts determine the legality of its markets [74]. This federal-vs-state showdown could have far-reaching implications. If Kalshi prevails, it might establish that CFTC-regulated event contracts are not subject to state gambling rules – essentially freeing prediction markets to operate nationwide under one set of regulations. If the states prevail, prediction platforms may face the onerous process of getting licensed in dozens of jurisdictions (or limiting certain markets state-by-state, as online poker sites do). As one legal analyst put it, the legality of U.S. prediction markets will require “patience” as these cases wind through courts and possibly Congress [75]. Notably, a bipartisan group of U.S. Senators has started questioning the CFTC about its oversight of Kalshi and similar platforms, indicating that lawmakers are paying attention to the issue [76].
Meanwhile, Polymarket’s approach to regulation has evolved from “ask forgiveness, not permission” to proactive compliance. After its brush with the CFTC in 2022, Polymarket operated outside U.S. jurisdiction (even geo-blocking U.S. IP addresses) while it strategized a legal re-entry. The acquisition of QCX gave Polymarket a shortcut to a CFTC-regulated venue [77]. Now, with ICE’s involvement, Polymarket is likely to be even more conservative in adhering to U.S. rules. The irony is that Polymarket, born as a decentralized application on Ethereum, is inching closer to the regulated model that Kalshi pioneered – while Kalshi, under pressure, has been experimenting with the edgier tactics (like nationwide sports betting) that Polymarket once used. In the end, both companies may meet in the middle: fully regulated, broad-based prediction exchanges offering markets globally, but with careful limits on the most sensitive subjects.
Disrupting Vegas and Wall Street: What It Means for Investors
The rivalry between Kalshi and Polymarket is more than just a fintech startup story – it encapsulates a broader disruption of traditional gambling and financial markets. For the $200+ billion U.S. sports betting and casino industry, the rise of prediction markets poses an uncomfortable competitive threat. Unlike a DraftKings or MGM sportsbook, which can only take bets in states where they’re licensed, a platform like Kalshi can (in theory) accept traders from anywhere under federal law. This opens access to huge untapped markets – for instance, California and Texas, where online sports betting remains illegal but where prediction platforms can operate under the interstate commerce umbrella [78]. Morgan Stanley analysts have noted that prediction exchanges also tend to attract a different clientele than typical sportsbooks: more sophisticated traders and institutional players, versus the casual recreational bettors DraftKings relies on [79]. This means the threat to traditional bookmakers, while real, may not be one-to-one; prediction markets might be carving out a new segment of “smart money” bettors who treat event trading akin to stock trading, rather than competing for every casino patron.
Still, the competitive lines are blurring. Kalshi’s markets on sports point spreads and multi-event parlays directly overlap with sportsbook offerings [80]. If prediction markets continue to grow, they could divert a slice of volume away from Vegas books and online betting apps – especially from high-rollers or quants who prefer the exchange-style model (where odds are set by trader consensus) over the house-driven odds model of sportsbooks. For now, the legal uncertainty is slowing any mass exodus; many casual bettors likely don’t even know these platforms exist yet. But the investor community clearly sees long-term disruption potential. As mentioned, DraftKings’ stock has been under pressure, with a recent analysis explicitly citing the “rise of prediction markets” as a factor weighing on the stock [81] [82]. The 40% slide in DKNG’s share price from early 2025 highs came despite DraftKings delivering strong financial results – suggesting that the market is pricing in future competitive risks [83] [84]. In response, DraftKings’ CEO Jason Robins has downplayed the impact but also hinted that if event exchanges are deemed legal, DraftKings might launch its own to stay in the game [85].
From Wall Street’s perspective, prediction markets are also a novel asset class that could complement existing products. Hedge funds already scour betting markets for insights (for example, election odds to inform policy-sensitive trades). If ICE and other exchanges start distributing prediction market data widely, we may see “crowd odds” become a standard input in financial models – not unlike how credit default swap prices or polling averages are used today. Additionally, there is speculation that eventually some event contracts could be listed on traditional exchanges or packaged into indices and ETFs, allowing investors to gain exposure to event outcomes in a regulated way. For instance, one could imagine a “political risk index” derived from election markets, or an “inflation expectation contract” listed on the CME.
One more intriguing angle: tokenization and the crypto connection. Polymarket, being blockchain-based, might integrate with decentralized finance platforms, allowing liquidity pools or tokenized shares of prediction outcomes. ICE’s deal explicitly mentions exploring tokenization of assets with Polymarket [86]. If prediction markets issue tokens (e.g. a Polymarket token for governance or fee discounts), that could create investable assets that trade on crypto exchanges, further blurring the lines between these startups and the broader crypto market. To date, neither Polymarket nor Kalshi has a publicly traded token or equity. Neither platform currently has a native cryptocurrency token that reflects its value [87], and Kalshi is not publicly listed (though its integration with Robinhood raises interesting possibilities). This means investors cannot directly “buy stock” in these exchanges yet – one reason venture funds and now ICE have eagerly grabbed equity behind closed doors. But if growth continues, an IPO or SPAC deal down the road is conceivable, especially for Kalshi given its U.S. regulatory compliance. Such an offering would allow the public to bet not just on events, but on the companies facilitating those bets.
Outlook: High Stakes on the Horizon
As of October 10, 2025, the prediction market space is white-hot, with both major players freshly capitalized and intent on global domination. The next year will likely see an escalation of the Kalshi vs. Polymarket rivalry – akin to a high-stakes chess match with regulators and market share as the pieces. Kalshi will use its $300 million war chest to expand internationally and solidify U.S. footholds, possibly striking deals in Europe and Asia where betting regulations might be more favorable. Polymarket, backed by ICE, will focus on launching its U.S. platform under the umbrella of QCX’s license, while leveraging ICE’s resources to pursue institutional partnerships. Each will also be watching the other’s domain: Kalshi eyeing the crypto-native audience that Polymarket commands, and Polymarket attempting to woo U.S. users that Kalshi has cultivated.
A key question is whether the market is big enough for both to thrive, or if this will be a winner-take-most scenario. There are network effects in prediction markets – liquidity attracts more liquidity. For now, volumes are surging so fast that both exchanges are seeing record activity. They are also somewhat differentiated: Kalshi emphasizes a regulated, USD-based environment (even as it now accepts crypto deposits like Bitcoin and USDC [88]), whereas Polymarket is rooted in crypto culture and may appeal to users who prefer decentralization (though Polymarket is becoming more hybrid). It’s plausible we’ll see a duopoly persist, with each innovating to one-up the other. Kalshi’s strengths in compliance and UI could be matched by Polymarket’s strengths in tokenomics and community-driven markets, for example.
Regulation remains the wildcard. The outcome of the state-vs-Kalshi legal battles, and any potential Congressional action, could either remove a huge barrier or impose new ones. A favorable court ruling or federal legislation clarifying that CFTC-regulated event markets are legal nationwide would open floodgates for growth – allowing advertising on a Super Bowl scale and partnerships across all states. Conversely, if states successfully clamp down, Kalshi and Polymarket might be restricted in offering certain high-volume contracts (like sports) or face geofencing that fragments their user base. Internationally, each country will pose its own regulatory puzzle, though many might follow the U.S. lead once a model is established.
In the meantime, experts are optimistic but cautious. “Prediction markets are here to stay, but they must prove they can play by the rules and deliver value,” says one industry observer, noting that public trust will be crucial for long-term success. The fact that household names like ICE, Sequoia, and even political figures are now backing these platforms adds a sheen of legitimacy that would have been unthinkable a few years ago. If Kalshi and Polymarket can continue growing at pace, while navigating the legal minefields, they may indeed transform how society gauges the odds of future events – turning speculation into a new form of informed, democratized finance.
One thing is certain: with billions on the line and giants at the gate, the fate of prediction markets will be a suspenseful story to watch. As the saying goes, “Place your bets.” The market is now betting that these once-niche exchanges can graduate into a full-fledged “Wall Street meets Las Vegas” industry – and perhaps even fulfill the bold promise of letting anyone, anywhere trade on the future. The next few years will reveal whether that bet pays off, or if unpredictable realities intervene in these markets of predictions.
Sources:
- The Block – “Kalshi’s $300M raise values firm at $5B as it tops Polymarket in global market share.” [89] [90]
- Coin68 (via NYTimes DealBook) – Kalshi raises $300M, expands globally as trading volume soars. [91] [92]
- BreakingCrypto/WRAL – “Kalshi’s Blockchain Bet Pays Off: Overtakes Polymarket as Prediction Market Leader.” [93] [94]
- Covers.com – “Kalshi Storms Past Polymarket in Trading Volume to Dominate Market.” [95] [96]
- TS2 Technology – “Wall Street’s $2 Billion Bet: NYSE Owner Goes All-In on Polymarket Prediction Markets.” [97] [98]
- Reuters – ICE to invest in Polymarket, valuing it at $8–10B (via TS2 citations). [99]
- Motley Fool/FinViz – “DraftKings stock has been pressured by prediction markets.” [100] [101]
- Fortune (Oct 2025) – “Why investors are gambling on Kalshi and Polymarket – young founders face long odds.” [102] [103]
- CoinDesk – “Kalshi Raises $300M at $5B Valuation, expands to 140 countries: NYT.” [104]
- Legal Sports Report – “Kalshi sues Ohio regulator, argues federal preemption for event markets.” [105]
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