Walmart stock (NYSE: WMT) is edging modestly higher in pre-market trading on Friday, November 14, 2025, as investors balance a risk-off macro backdrop with the kickoff of Walmart’s first big Black Friday deals event and an earnings report just days away.
As of early Friday morning, Walmart was trading around $102.7 in the pre-market, a touch above Thursday’s close near $102.5, leaving the shares roughly mid-range between their 12‑month low of about $79.8 and high around $109.6. [1]
Below is everything traders and long-term investors should know about Walmart stock before the US market opens today.
1. How Walmart Stock Is Positioned Before the Bell
Price, valuation and recent performance
- Last close: Walmart ended Thursday around $102.54, according to recent trading data. [2]
- Pre-market move: Overnight indications show WMT up roughly 0.1–0.2%, trading just above the prior close as of early Friday. [3]
- Market cap & multiples: Walmart’s market value is around $820 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio near 38–39x and a beta of about 0.67, underscoring its role as a relatively defensive large-cap retailer. [4]
- 52‑week range: Roughly $79.8 to $109.6 per share over the past year. [5]
- Returns: Simply Wall St estimates Walmart has delivered about 13.8% year-to-date share price gains and around 22.8% total shareholder return over the last 12 months. [6]
That combination—steady double-digit returns, a high but stable valuation and low beta—has kept Walmart front and center as a “steady compounder” in a volatile year for growth and tech names.
Where analysts stand this morning
Analyst sentiment on Walmart remains broadly positive heading into next week’s earnings:
- MarketBeat reports that 32 analysts rate WMT a “Buy” or better, with one Hold, for an overall “Moderate Buy”rating and an average price target around $113.50, implying mid‑single-digit to low‑double-digit upside from current levels. [7]
- TipRanks shows an even more bullish tilt: 28 analysts, all with Buy ratings, and an average target near $116.3, implying roughly 12% upside over the next 12 months. [8]
- A valuation study from Simply Wall St pegs “fair value” at about $113.60, roughly 9–10% above recent prices, though it also highlights Walmart’s elevated P/E around 38x vs a sector average closer to 20–25x, meaning the margin-expansion story has to keep working to justify the premium. [9]
In other words, Wall Street is still leaning bullish on WMT—but expectations are not low.
2. Macro Backdrop: Futures Under Pressure as Rate-Cut Hopes Fade
While Walmart is ticking higher pre-market, US stock index futures are generally lower on Friday, as the broader market digests a sharp selloff in tech and renewed doubts about a December Federal Reserve rate cut.
- Reuters reports that Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are in the red this morning after Thursday’s biggest single-day drop in over a month, with traders now pricing less than a 50% probability of a quarter-point rate cut in December, down from roughly two-thirds a week ago. [10]
- Equities have been buffeted by hawkish comments from Fed officials, higher bond yields and lingering uncertainty after the record-long US government shutdown, which has disrupted key economic data like October jobs and inflation reports. [11]
In this climate, big-box retailers with essential categories like groceries and household staples can sometimes act as defensive havens, though they’re not immune to market-wide de-risking—especially when valuations are rich.
3. Earnings Countdown: What to Expect From Walmart’s Q3 FY26
Confirmed date and time
Walmart’s next major catalyst is just around the corner:
- The company will release fiscal Q3 2026 earnings at 6:00 a.m. CST on Thursday, November 20, 2025, followed by a conference call at 7:00 a.m. CST hosted by CEO Doug McMillon and CFO John David Rainey. [12]
That means today’s trading sits squarely in the pre‑earnings positioning window, with investors calibrating expectations around guidance, holiday commentary and margins.
Street forecasts and company guidance
Here’s where expectations are as of this morning:
- Zacks / Finviz (consensus):
- EPS: about $0.61 for the quarter, up ~5% year over year.
- Revenue: around $177.1 billion, up roughly 4.5% YoY. [13]
- TipRanks breakdown:
- Consensus modeling EPS of $0.60 on $177.4 billion in sales.
- Their featured analyst expects sales growth around 4.3%, slightly above management’s guidance midpoint, and believes EPS could land just above the top end of Walmart’s own Q3 EPS guidance range of $0.58–0.60. [14]
- Full-year guidance: MarketBeat notes that Walmart has guided for FY26 EPS of $2.52–2.62, with the Street clustering near $2.55, again implying mid‑single-digit earnings growth. [15]
Recent quarter: solid sales, mixed profit
Walmart’s Q2 FY26 results, reported in August, provide the baseline investors are using:
- Revenue: $177.4 billion, up 4.8% year over year (5.6% in constant currency).
- Global eCommerce: up 25%, led by store-fulfilled pickup & delivery and marketplace.
- Advertising: global ad business up 46%, with Walmart Connect in the US up 31%.
- Membership & other income: up 5.4%, including 15.3% growth in membership income globally.
- Margins: gross margin rate ticked 4 basis points higher, but operating income fell 8.2%, with adjusted operating income up only 0.4% in constant currency as legal and liability costs weighed on profits. [16]
Zacks notes that Walmart has beaten EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters, but Q2 saw an earnings miss (adjusted EPS of $0.68 vs a $0.73 consensus), reminding investors that even Walmart can stumble against high expectations. [17]
Key question for next week: Can Walmart keep sales growth, e‑commerce momentum and high-margin businesses (advertising, memberships, data) strong enough to offset heavy holiday promotions and cost pressures—without trimming its full-year outlook?
4. Black Friday Event 1 Starts Today: A Major Near-Term Catalyst
The biggest company-specific development right now is that Walmart’s first major Black Friday deals event of 2025 begins today, making this weekend one of the most important demand pulses of the quarter.
Event 1: November 14–16
According to Walmart’s official holiday press release:
- Black Friday Deals Event 1 runs from November 14–16, both online and in stores.
- Walmart+ members received five hours of early online access starting at 7 p.m. ET on November 13, with everyone else gaining access at 12:01 a.m. ET on November 14. [18]
- Walmart is advertising “up to 60% off” top brands and thousands of gifts under $20, spanning toys, electronics, fashion, beauty and more. [19]
Third-party deal trackers are already highlighting the depth of discounts:
- 9to5Toys reports up to 50% off LEGO sets in Walmart’s early Black Friday rollout, noting that these deals are part of one of Walmart’s “biggest and most popular shopping events” of the year and are now live for all shoppers. [20]
- PhoneArena points to Walmart’s headline AirPods Pro 2 promotion at $139 (about 44% off the $249 list price), calling it an unprecedented early Black Friday price running through Sunday, November 16, subject to inventory. [21]
Reuters also flags Walmart’s hot gift lists featuring “blind box” toys and collectibles, part of a broader trend retailers are leaning into this season. While these low-ticket items may not move the overall spending needle dramatically, they can boost impulse purchases and traffic in key aisles. [22]
Membership flywheel: Walmart+ gets a push
This Black Friday push is tightly linked to the Walmart+ membership ecosystem:
- Membership promotion: Business Insider reports that Walmart+ annual plans are 50% off, cutting the price from $98 to $49 per year in a limited-time deal that runs through December 2, 2025 (new annual subscribers only). [23]
- Perks: Walmart+ offers free shipping and deliveries, fuel discounts, and a choice of streaming (Paramount+ Essential or Peacock Premium, with the ability to switch every 90 days), plus early access to deal events like today’s sale. [24]
Given that membership income grew more than 15% globally in Q2, today’s combination of deep discounts plus a half-price membership offer could further accelerate Walmart’s high-margin membership revenue line—something analysts and algorithms will be watching closely next week. [25]
Investor takeaway: Event 1 is a volume and traffic story in the short term, but also a structural margin story via Walmart+ and advertising over the medium term.
5. Walmart’s AI and OpenAI Partnership: Why Some See It as an “AI Stock”
Beyond near-term sales, the AI narrative around Walmart has intensified in recent weeks, and that’s increasingly part of the bull case for WMT.
OpenAI partnership and “agentic commerce”
On October 14, Walmart announced a strategic partnership with OpenAI to create “AI-first shopping experiences”:
- The partnership will allow customers to shop Walmart directly within ChatGPT, using Instant Checkout so shoppers can chat, plan meals, restock essentials and purchase in one flow. [26]
- Walmart frames this as “agentic commerce”—moving from simple search bars to AI that learns, plans and predicts customer needs proactively. [27]
- The company also highlighted its broader use of AI across the business:
- Enhancing product catalogs and cutting fashion production timelines by up to 18 weeks.
- Reducing customer care resolution times by up to 40%.
- Rolling out ChatGPT Enterprise to internal teams and promoting OpenAI Certifications for associates. [28]
An Axios piece this week argued that “old‑economy” names like Walmart could become some of the most interesting AI plays, with portfolio managers pointing to the retailer’s use of AI to improve logistics, inventory management and margins as reasons it could be a long-term winner in the AI era. [29]
Holiday AI tools live for this weekend
Walmart is also bringing AI to the holiday floor right now:
- A new set of AI-powered shopping experiences launched in stores and in the Walmart app for the holiday season, including:
- An in‑store savings tool in the app that surfaces local deals—including Black Friday rollbacks and clearance—in a single tap.
- Enhanced in‑store search and navigation to help customers find items (like top toys) and see in‑stock locations.
- AI‑driven party planning via “Sparky,” Walmart’s GenAI assistant, which can build lists for events like New Year’s Eve.
- Immersive 3D showrooms and AR tools that let shoppers visualize decor and swap items in virtual spaces before buying. [30]
Walmart says that shoppers who use the app while in stores spend about 25% more on average than those who don’t—underscoring how these AI features can directly translate into higher basket sizes. [31]
Data Ventures and Scintilla: monetizing data
On the back end, Walmart Data Ventures continues to build out Scintilla, its AI-powered insights ecosystem for suppliers:
- At its Inspire 2025 event, Walmart revealed that suppliers subscribing to Scintilla saw total omni-channel sales grow about 15%, with digital sales rising even faster than non-subscribers. [32]
- New features, including AI-powered research summaries and an upcoming AI intelligence companion, are designed to help suppliers understand customer data faster and act on it. [33]
For investors, this matters because data and advertising businesses carry higher margins than pure retail, supporting the thesis that Walmart’s earnings mix is slowly transitioning toward more profitable streams. [34]
6. Institutional Flows and Analyst Targets: Quiet but Supportive Tailwind
Recent regulatory filings show continued institutional interest in Walmart shares:
- Allianz SE increased its WMT stake by 15.4% in Q2, to nearly 190,000 shares valued around $18.6 million at the time of the filing.
- Several other large institutions—including Kingstone Capital, Nuveen, Goldman Sachs and Wellington Management—also significantly boosted positions over recent quarters. [35]
- A separate filing out today indicates that Intrua Financial LLC increased its stake by 91.8% in Q2, and MarketBeat estimates that about 26.8% of Walmart’s shares are held by hedge funds and other institutional investors. [36]
At the same time, Walmart insiders—including the CEO and senior EVPs—have executed modest share sales in recent months, but these represent small fractions of their overall holdings and don’t appear to signal a major shift in insider sentiment. [37]
7. Key Risks to Watch Today and Into Earnings
Even with multiple growth pillars, Walmart isn’t risk-free—especially at current valuations. Here are the main issues to monitor as trading begins:
- Macro and Fed path
- If markets remain focused on higher-for-longer interest rates, consumer sentiment and equity multiples could both come under pressure. Recent sessions have already seen tech-led selloffs spilling across sectors. [38]
- Margin pressure from promotions
- Q2 showed how legal and liability costs can quickly crimp operating income, and the next few weeks will layer on heavy discounting from Black Friday through Cyber Monday. [39]
- Valuation risk
- With a P/E near 38x and multiples above sector averages, Walmart’s stock already prices in a lot of success. Simply Wall St and TipRanks both highlight the possibility that, depending on assumptions, fair value estimates range from slightly undervalued (~$113) to potentially overvalued (~$85)—a reminder that sentiment shifts can be sharp if growth underwhelms. [40]
- Holiday execution
- Investors will scrutinize Walmart’s holiday commentary on November 20 for signs of consumer fatigue, especially amid higher tariffs, elevated prices and an uncertain macro backdrop. Reuters’ toy and holiday coverage suggests that while trends like blind-box collectibles are hot, total toy spending could still be slightly down this peak season. [41]
8. What to Watch in Walmart Stock Today
Before the opening bell, here are the practical checkpoints for WMT watchers:
- Pre-market tone:
- Does Walmart hold its slight pre-market gain around $102–103 even as futures point lower? A firm open would hint that investors see it as a relative safe haven in today’s risk-off tape. [42]
- Volume vs. normal days:
- With Event 1 kicking off, any pickup in trading volume could reflect positioning ahead of expectations for strong weekend traffic.
- Read-through from macro headlines:
- Further Fed commentary or moves in bond yields could influence how much investors are willing to pay for defensive growth names like Walmart. [43]
- Analyst chatter and previews:
- Look for any new earnings previews or target price changes as analysts incorporate early read-throughs from Black Friday Event 1, updated AI commentary or membership uptake. [44]
Final thought
Heading into the November 14 session, Walmart sits at the crossroads of three powerful narratives:
- A defensive retail giant in a jittery market.
- A holiday engine turning on today with Event 1 and aggressive Black Friday pricing.
- An emerging AI and data platform, bolstered by its OpenAI partnership, Data Ventures, and AI-infused shopping experiences.
How the stock trades today will likely reflect which of those stories investors choose to focus on most—macro fear, holiday optimism, or long‑term AI potential.
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. nz.finance.yahoo.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. simplywall.st, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.tipranks.com, 9. simplywall.st, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.businesswire.com, 13. finviz.com, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.businesswire.com, 17. finviz.com, 18. corporate.walmart.com, 19. corporate.walmart.com, 20. 9to5toys.com, 21. www.phonearena.com, 22. www.tradingview.com, 23. www.businessinsider.com, 24. www.businessinsider.com, 25. www.businesswire.com, 26. corporate.walmart.com, 27. corporate.walmart.com, 28. corporate.walmart.com, 29. www.axios.com, 30. corporate.walmart.com, 31. corporate.walmart.com, 32. corporate.walmart.com, 33. corporate.walmart.com, 34. simplywall.st, 35. www.marketbeat.com, 36. www.marketbeat.com, 37. www.marketbeat.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.businesswire.com, 40. simplywall.st, 41. www.tradingview.com, 42. nz.finance.yahoo.com, 43. www.reuters.com, 44. finviz.com
