Webull’s Wild Ride: Inside BULL Stock’s 500% Surge, 85% Crash & What’s Next for the Trading App Giant

Digital Brokerage Powerhouse: Webull Corporation (NASDAQ: BULL) operates a global commission-free trading platform (stocks, ETFs, options, crypto, etc.) with over 24 million users across 14 countries ^[1]. Founded in 2016 by Alibaba alum Wang Anquan, the company went public via a SPAC merger in April 2025.
Rollercoaster Stock Debut: BULL stock skyrocketed nearly 500% to an all-time high of $79.56 in its first days of trading ^[2], then plunged over 85%. As of Oct 8, 2025, shares trade around $12 ^[3]– down ~7% on the day and hovering just above their 52-week low (~$9.54) ^[4]. The stock remains up about 5–10% year-to-date after its wild swings ^[5].
Robust Growth (but Losses): Webull’s revenue is surging – Q2 2025 sales jumped 46% YoY to $131.5 million ^[6] – fueled by record customer assets (~$15.9 billion, +64% YoY) and rising trading volumes ^[7]. The company has posted three straight quarters of positive operating profits, but remains unprofitable on a net (GAAP) basis due to one-time costs and stock-based expenses ^[8] ^[9].
Recent Sell-Off & Insider Unlock: A shareholder lock-up expiration in early October 2025 released ~455.6 million shares (insiders’ holdings) into the market ^[10]. Webull’s stock tumbled 6.6% on Oct 7 ahead of the lock-up ^[11], then dropped another ~6% on Oct 8 after a 3 million-share block trade hit at a discount price of $12.50 ^[12] ^[13]. These back-to-back heavy selling days – the worst since August – have stoked fears of further insider offloading.
Bullish Analyst Sentiment: Despite near-term volatility, Wall Street is optimistic on Webull. Rosenblatt Securities initiated coverage in late September with a Buy rating and $19 target, arguing BULL is undervalued vs. rival Robinhood and can sustain 25%+ growth through 2027 ^[14] ^[15]. Northland Capitallikewise started at Outperform with an ~$18 target ^[16]. The consensus price target around $18.50 implies ~50–60% upside. Analysts highlight Webull’s rapid international expansion and recently relaunched crypto trading as key growth drivers ^[17] ^[18].

Company Overview

Webull is a digital investment platform that offers commission-free trading of stocks, ETFs, options, cryptocurrencies and more via a popular mobile app and web interface ^[19]. Often likened to Robinhood, Webull makes money primarily through payment for order flow and premium add-on services ^[20]. The platform launched in 2018 and quickly gained traction among tech-savvy retail investors with its sleek design and zero-commission model. Webull now serves customers in North America, Europe, Asia, Africa, and beyond, operating in 14 markets through its licensed broker-dealer entities ^[21].

Originally founded in 2016 as part of a Chinese fintech venture, Webull was backed early by Chinese tech investors (including Xiaomi and Shunwei Capital) and led by CEO Anquan Wang, a former Alibaba executive ^[22]. To address U.S.–China regulatory concerns, the company re-domiciled to the U.S. (setting up headquarters in New York, later St. Petersburg, Florida) and separated from its Chinese parent before pursuing a public listing ^[23] ^[24]. These moves culminated in Webull’s reverse merger with SK Growth Opportunities, a SPAC affiliated with South Korea’s SK Group, which brought Webull public on the Nasdaq in April 2025 ^[25]. Webull’s ordinary shares and warrants began trading under the ticker “BULL” on April 11, 2025 ^[26].

Today Webull positions itself as a global alternative to traditional brokerages and U.S.-centric apps. It boasts a user base of ~25 million registered users (4.7 million funded accounts) and around $15–16 billion in customer assets as of mid-2025 ^[27] ^[28]. This scale still trails far behind Robinhood (which has ~25 million fundedaccounts and $193 billion in assets) ^[29], but Webull has been expanding internationally much faster. In fact, Webull is already licensed in far more countries than Robinhood – reaching into the UK, EU, Australia, East Asia and more ^[30] – a broader geographic footprint that the company hopes will drive long-term growth. In September 2025, Webull entered the European market by launching brokerage services in the Netherlands ^[31], and it continues to push into new regions.

Stock Price (Oct 8, 2025) & Recent Performance

Webull’s stock (ticker BULL) has been on a wild ride since its debut. Shares opened around $10–$16 in April and then, in a speculative frenzy, exploded upward by almost 500% within days ^[32]. By its second trading session, BULL hit a closing high of $62.90 (up 375% from day one) ^[33], and it ultimately peaked intraday around $79.56 shortly after the SPAC merger ^[34]. This stunning surge gave Webull a momentary ~$7–8 billion market cap and reflected euphoric sentiment around the online brokerage sector at the time.

However, that euphoria proved fleeting. Webull’s stock quickly reversed course, and by mid-2025 it had plunged back to the low teens ^[35]. By June 3, 2025 (just two months post-listing), BULL was trading near $10.95 ^[36]. The implosion wiped out over 85% of the stock’s value from its highs, as initial excitement gave way to concerns about valuation, competition, and the company’s hefty post-merger share count. In effect, Webull went from being a high-flying “meme stock” to a more grounded trading around its SPAC base price within weeks.

Through the summer of 2025, BULL shares stabilized in the $10–$15 range, with bouts of volatility around earnings and lock-up news. Year-to-date, the stock is still up slightly (roughly 5–10%) from the start of 2025 ^[37] – meaning early SPAC investors who held are modestly ahead – but for anyone who bought near the peak, the declines have been brutal. The 52-week range tells the story: Webull has traded as low as $9.54 and as high as $79.56 in the past year ^[38].

As of October 8, 2025, Webull stock sits near the bottom of that range. BULL closed around the $12 mark (intra-day ~$11.9-12.0) on Oct 8 ^[39]. That price is down about 6–7% from the previous day and roughly 15% lower week-over-week, reflecting a sharp sell-off in the first week of October ^[40]. In fact, Webull just notched its worst daily drop since late August after a pair of back-to-back selloffs ^[41] (more on the reasons in the next section). At ~$12, Webull’s market capitalization is roughly $5.5–6 billion, a far cry from the $60+ billion valuation of Robinhood (which has soared this year) ^[42] ^[43]. Webull’s enterprise value is a bit lower (~$4.4B) considering its cash from the SPAC deal ^[44].

In short, Webull’s stock performance has been extremely volatile – a “tale of two halves” in 2025. It rocketed to unbelievable highs on debut, and has since round-tripped back to earth, now trading just above its SPAC IPO price. Recent momentum has been negative, with the stock under pressure due to looming insider share sales and broader market rotations. Still, even at $12, BULL remains slightly above the ~$10 base price that many institutional SPAC investors paid, meaning the stock hasn’t broken that psychological floor. Whether it can regain an upward trajectory will depend on how the company navigates its post-lockup phase and continues delivering growth.

Recent News & Developments (Early October 2025)

The first week of October brought major developments – and turbulence – for Webull’s stock. The key issue: a massive share lock-up expiration for insider holdings. On Oct 8, 2025, the contractual lock-up period from the SPAC merger expired, freeing roughly 455.6 million shares (the majority of Webull’s outstanding shares) held by insiders and early investors to be sold on the open market ^[45]. Traders had been nervously anticipating this event, and it had an immediate impact on BULL’s price:

October 7, 2025 (Tue): In the session before the lock-up expiry, Webull’s stock plunged 6.6% during regular trading ^[46], as investors braced for a potential wave of insider selling. This was BULL’s steepest one-day drop since late August. After hours, the stock slid further amid rumors that some large holders might unload shares once the lock-up lifted. The sell-off coincided with a notable uptick in message board chatter – retail sentiment on Stocktwits actually flipped to “extremely bullish” on the dip ^[47], with some traders arguing the pullback was overdone and presented a buying opportunity if insiders held firm. “Do we honestly believe the execs will all slam the sell button at $12? Unlikely,” one bullish user remarked, suggesting insiders might wait for higher prices ^[48].
October 8, 2025 (Wed): On the morning the lock-up expired, those fears materialized in part. Just after the market opened, a block trade of 3 million Class A shares hit the tape at $12.50/share, which was about a 2% discount to the prior close ^[49] ^[50]. This block represented roughly 1.3% of Webull’s float (and ~0.6% of total outstanding shares) and was likely an early insider or institutional holder trimming their stake. The transaction – worth ~$37.5 million – was executed at 8:00 AM ET, indicating it was a negotiated off-market sale ^[51]. Once news of the large trade spread, Webull’s stock fell as much as 6–7% on Wednesday, effectively confirming that at least one significant holder took advantage of the lock-up expiration to sell. This block trade was actually the third sizable insider sale in the past two weeks, totaling ~3.1 million shares sold in block transactions over that period ^[52]. The consecutive days of heavy selling (Tuesday and Wednesday) have raised concerns about ongoing institutional distribution, and BULL shares continued to drift near lows by day’s end.

Despite the short-term gloom, it’s worth noting that many Webull insiders are still substantially in the green even at $12 (given the SPAC deal was struck at a $4.7B valuation ^[53] and insiders likely have very low cost bases). So some profit-taking is not unexpected. The question is how much more supply will hit the market. The 455 million shares unlocked represent an enormous overhang (for context, only ~174 million shares were in the public float prior ^[54]), but there’s no requirement that insiders sell immediately – they simply have the option to. If Webull’s early backers believe in the company’s upside, they may choose to hold most of their shares rather than flood the market at depressed levels. Indeed, some retail investors argued that executives and major holders wouldn’t rush to dump at multi-month lows, especially given the relative strength of peers like Robinhood this year ^[55]. The coming weeks will test that thesis.

Beyond the lock-up drama, Webull’s recent news flow includes a few positive developments:

In September, Webull launched in Europe for the first time, rolling out retail brokerage services in the Netherlands ^[56]. This marks an important milestone in Webull’s international expansion, as the company can now officially serve EU investors through a locally licensed entity. Europe represents a large untapped market for Webull, and the Netherlands launch is likely a springboard to expand into other EU countries in 2025.
Webull has also been expanding its product offerings. Notably, the company re-entered the cryptocurrency trading business in mid-2025 after having spun it off in 2023 due to regulatory pressures ^[57] ^[58]. In July, Webull relaunched crypto trading for U.S. customers and reintegrated its “Webull Pay” crypto wallet operations ^[59]. It also introduced crypto trading in Brazil and other international markets ^[60] ^[61]. This crypto push comes as the regulatory climate in the U.S. has somewhat clarified, and as retail interest in digital assets picked up again in 2025. Rosenblatt analysts specifically cited crypto as a key part of the bull case for Webull, noting that at the peak of the last cycle, crypto trading contributed about 20% of Webull’s revenues ^[62]. The recent relaunch could meaningfully boost engagement and revenue if crypto markets stay active.
On the financials front, Webull’s latest earnings (Q2 2025) were a bright spot. Reported on August 28, it was the company’s first earnings release as a public company – and it showed accelerating growth. Revenue jumped 46% YoY to $131.5M ^[63], beating internal targets, and adjusted operating profit came in at $23.3M (Webull uses adjusted metrics to strip out hefty one-time costs from the SPAC deal) ^[64]. The company noted it has now achieved positive operating income for three consecutive quarters ^[65] ^[66], a sign of improving scalability. However, due to accounting charges related to the merger (like fair-value adjustments on shares and warrants issued), Webull still posted a net loss of $28.3M for Q2 on a GAAP basis ^[67]. Investors reacted somewhat mixed to the Q2 report – the stock initially ticked up ~2.7% on the revenue beat ^[68], but then drifted lower as attention turned to the looming lock-up. Still, the results underscored that Webull is growing rapidly in the post-pandemic trading boom.

In summary, recent developments around Webull have been dominated by the technical selling pressure from the lock-up expiration and insider block sales, which has overshadowed some of the positive fundamental news (international expansion, strong earnings, crypto relaunch). The next few weeks will be critical to see if the market can digest the influx of supply. Once the lock-up dust settles, investors may refocus on Webull’s growth trajectory and competitive position heading into year-end.

Analyst & Expert Insights

Wall Street analysts are fairly upbeat about Webull’s prospects, viewing it as an emerging player in online brokerage with significant upside – albeit not without challenges. Here are some key analyst insights and quotes from the past few months:

Rosenblatt Securities (Bullish): Rosenblatt initiated coverage on BULL in late September with a Buy rating and a $19 price target. Their thesis is that Webull is undervalued relative to peers and poised for high growth. “Webull has clearly capitalized, quickly growing from a niche market data platform to the #2 mobile-first brokerage in the U.S.,” the Rosenblatt analysts wrote ^[69]. They highlighted Webull’s rapid expansion in retail trading and international markets, as well as the reopening of its crypto trading business, as key factors behind an expected >25% annual revenue growth through 2027 ^[70] ^[71]. Rosenblatt noted that even at ~$12, Webull shares trade around 10× 2026 consensus revenue, which they argue is an attractive multiple compared to Robinhood’s ~25× multiple ^[72]. In their view, Webull’s smaller size belies its potential: thanks to largely fixed costs (the app platform scales easily) and a widening global reach, Webull could grow faster than Robinhood off its lower base ^[73] ^[74]. The analysts did caution that Webull’s stock isn’t “cheap” on absolute terms (given lack of GAAP profitability), but they see the relative valuation gap with Robinhood as unwarranted if Webull can execute on its growth plans ^[75]. Overall, Rosenblatt’s tone was optimistic – essentially saying Webull offers a high-growth fintech story at a mid-range price, hence the bullish initiation.
Northland Capital (Bullish): Similarly, Northland Capital Markets began coverage on Webull in early September with an Outperform rating and an $18 target price ^[76]. Northland’s report (summarized in press coverage) echoed many of the same points – noting Webull’s international expansion, rising user base, and expanding product lineup (especially the return to crypto trading) as reasons to expect continued growth. They view Webull as an up-and-coming competitor in the retail brokerage space and evidently believe the stock’s risk/reward is favorable after its post-merger pullback. With two smaller firms both assigning ~$18–$19 targets, the analyst consensus for Webull has crystallized in the high-teens, well above the current price. In fact, recent data shows the average price target is about $18.50, and the consensus recommendation is a “Strong Buy” ^[77] (granted, that’s based on just a couple of analysts so far).
Motley Fool / Independent Analysts (Cautious): Not everyone is fully convinced, however. Some analysts and commentators have urged caution on BULL. A key point of skepticism: Webull’s competitive position versus Robinhood and other incumbents. As Motley Fool’s Leo Sun observed, Webull’s user and asset growth – while solid – is actually slower than Robinhood’s in many respects. “It’s never a good sign when the underdog is growing slower than a market leader – and Webull’s metrics look grim compared to Robinhood’s,” Sun wrote bluntly ^[78]. Indeed, as of the end of 2024 (pre-SPAC), Webull had 23.3 million registered users and 4.7 million funded accounts, whereas Robinhood had 25+ million funded accounts – meaning Webull is far behind in converting users to active traders ^[79]. Robinhood also held ~$193 billion in customer assetsversus Webull’s ~$13.6 billion at that time ^[80] – a massive gap. Bears argue that Webull, despite its rapid growth, remains a distant #2 in the U.S. market and faces an uphill battle to steal share from Robinhood, Schwab, Fidelity, Interactive Brokers, and others. Additionally, profitability concerns linger. While Webull is breaking even on an operating basis, it continues to post net losses and may need to spend aggressively on marketing to grow overseas. The company’s decision to access up to $1 billion via an equity financing facility (announced in July) ^[81] ^[82] could potentially dilute shareholders if utilized heavily – a reminder that Webull might need additional capital to fund its ambitions. These factors lead some experts to suggest that BULL’s risk (execution risk, competitive risk) is higher than what bullish analysts imply.
Retail and Investor Sentiment: It’s also interesting to note the divided sentiment between professional analysts and retail investors. On forums like Stocktwits and Reddit, Webull has a following of believers who see it as an underdog with big upside – especially after the recent dip. Many point to Robinhood’s 2025 rally (HOOD is up ~200%+ this year) and argue that Webull could follow a similar path if it delivers strong results and avoids major missteps. Some retail traders have been buying the post-lockup dip, expecting a relief bounce once the initial selling pressure abates. On the other hand, skeptics in those communities warn that BULL’s post-SPAC collapse resembles other fallen high-flyers and that catching the bottom is risky. The extremely high trading volumes around the lock-up expiration (Webull traded nearly 100 million shares on Oct 8, dwarfing its ~15M average volume ^[83] ^[84]) indicate that short-term speculators are very active in this name. Volatility is likely to remain elevated, and investors should be prepared for sharp swings as sentiment shifts.

In summary, analysts’ quotes and perspectives range from bullish (emphasizing Webull’s growth, global reach, and relative undervaluation) to cautiously bearish (flagging its second-place status and lack of profits). The sell-side seems skewed bullish at this early stage, with initial coverage tilting positive, while independent voices urge not to ignore the challenges. This dichotomy isn’t unusual for a newly public, high-growth company. It underscores that Webull’s investment narrative is still being shaped – and the next few quarters of performance will be crucial in validating either the bull or bear case.

Forecasts and Investment Outlook

Looking ahead, the investment outlook for Webull (BULL) will depend on a few critical factors: continued growth in user engagement, successful expansion into new markets, improvement in profitability – and simply regaining investor confidence after the lock-up selling wave. Here’s how the forecast and outlook appear based on current information:

Growth Projections: Webull’s growth trajectory is expected to remain strong. Rosenblatt projects 25%+ compound annual revenue growth through 2027 ^[85] ^[86], which, if achieved, would make Webull one of the faster-growing players in fintech. The company’s own recent performance lends credence to high growth expectations: revenues climbed 32% YoY in Q1 and 46% YoY in Q2 2025 ^[87] ^[88]. Key drivers going forward include international expansion (entering more countries in Europe and Asia), new product offerings (crypto trading, possibly other financial products), and overall retail trading activity. On that last point, macro conditions have been favorable in 2025 – U.S. equity markets hit all-time highs recently, and retail investors now account for an estimated 10–20% of daily market volume ^[89], a level of engagement not seen since the 2020–21 meme-stock era. Webull’s management noted that the current environment for self-directed trading is the best since the COVID-19 pandemic boom ^[90]. If the bull market and high retail participation persist into 2026, Webull stands to benefit immensely from the increased trading volumes and asset inflows.
Earnings & Profitability: In the near-term, Wall Street will be watching whether Webull can turn the corner to consistent net profitability. The company has shown improving economics – e.g. positive adjusted operating income and narrowing losses – but on a GAAP basis it’s still in the red ^[91]. One analyst noted Webull’s GAAP EPS was –$0.06 in Q1 2025 vs –$7.98 a year prior, highlighting improvement but reminding that it’s “still a loss” ^[92]. The consensus seems to expect Webull will continue to post small losses in 2025 as it invests in growth (marketing, overseas launch costs, etc.), with the potential to break even or turn profitable in 2026 if revenue growth stays robust. Importantly, Webull’s high gross margin (~77%) ^[93] and fintech-like scalability suggest that once it reaches sufficient scale, earnings could ramp up quickly. But any slowdown in growth – or unexpected spike in costs – could delay that breakeven point. Investors will also pay close attention to user monetization metrics (revenue per user, etc.) to see if Webull can boost profitability by getting more value from its 4.7M funded accounts.
Stock Price Targets & Valuation: As noted, the average analyst price target is around $18.5 (range $18–$19), implying significant upside (~+55%) from the ~$12 level ^[94]. This bullish target reflects the growth optimism, but also the relative valuation gap: at $12, Webull trades at roughly 8–9 times 2024 sales (using ~$500–600M full-year revenue estimate), whereas peers like Robinhood trade at much higher multiples of sales or earnings ^[95]. If Webull executes well and market conditions stay favorable, one could argue the stock deserves to re-rate higher. For instance, even at 15× sales (still below Robinhood’s valuation), BULL would trade closer to $20+. Conversely, if Webull stumbles or if the market sours on growth stocks, the stock could languish or fall further. It’s worth remembering that Webull’s float just expanded massively due to the lock-up expiration – this increased supply might keep shares range-bound in the short term as the market digests any insider selling. Some traders believe that once the lock-up overhang is absorbed in coming weeks, BULL could bounce from oversold levels. Others advise caution, noting that many de-SPAC stocks have continued to drift downward post-lockup if fundamentals don’t dramatically outperform.
Competitive and Market Risks: Webull’s outlook is also tied to competitive dynamics in retail brokerage. Robinhood’s resurgence (its stock is up ~200% YTD and it joined the S&P 500 in 2025) ^[96] ^[97]underscores that the market leader isn’t ceding ground easily – Robinhood is expanding internationally and into new products as well. Legacy brokers (Schwab, Fidelity) and newer fintech rivals (eToro, SoFi, etc.) are all vying for the same customers. Webull will need to differentiate with superior technology, a wider product suite, or better pricing/features to keep growing its user base. Any slowdown in new user acquisition or a dip in user activity (which could happen if, say, market volatility fades or a bear market sets in) would directly impact Webull’s growth. Additionally, regulatory risk is not trivial: Webull, like Robinhood, relies on payment for order flow which remains under regulatory scrutiny. Changes in brokerage industry rules (SEC restrictions on PFOF, crypto regulations, etc.) could affect revenue streams. Webull’s past ties to China also mean it must be vigilant amid U.S.-China tensions, though the company has taken steps to localize management and data.
Financing and Dilution: With a $1 billion standby equity financing facility available ^[98], Webull has a war chest to fund expansion – but using it would mean issuing a lot of new shares. Management will likely tap this facility only as needed (they’ve already raised ~$143M from it as of late August) ^[99]. If Webull’s stock remains low, heavy use of the facility could dilute existing shareholders considerably. On the flip side, not needing to raise capital through a traditional secondary offering is a positive; Webull has cash in the bank (it raised over $200M from warrant exercises in Q2 ^[100]) and can be opportunistic in bolstering its balance sheet.

Investment Outlook: In summary, Webull presents a classic high-risk, high-reward profile at this stage. The company is riding powerful trends – the democratization of investing, fintech growth, a renaissance in retail trading – and it’s executing well in terms of user growth and revenue expansion. If it continues on this trajectory, there is meaningful upside for the stock, especially from its currently depressed price. The median analyst expects Webull will grow into a significantly higher valuation over the next 12-18 months ^[101], and early coverage has been encouraging.

However, investors should be mindful of the volatility and uncertainties. Webull’s stock has already demonstrated that it can swing dramatically, and the recent lock-up selling could keep shares under pressure in the near term. The company must also prove that it can eventually turn its rapid growth into sustainable profits and carve out a durable niche against very large competitors. As one analyst cautioned, Webull is still the “underdog” in the space and needs to outpace the incumbents to justify a premium valuation ^[102].

For now, the outlook appears cautiously optimistic. Many experts foresee Webull continuing to ride the wave of retail investing enthusiasm into 2026, especially as it leverages new markets and products. The stock’s longer-term directionwill likely track the company’s execution: if Webull delivers strong quarterly results and user metrics, confidence (and the share price) could build back up. Conversely, any sign of growth hiccups or further insider selling could keep BULL subdued.

Bottom Line: Webull (BULL) is a fast-growing fintech contender that has experienced both the thrill of a huge rally and the agony of a steep decline in its young life as a public company. Going forward, it offers an intriguing investment story – a combination of double-digit growth potential, improving fundamentals, and exposure to the retail trading boom, counterbalanced by competitive pressures and stock volatility. Investors should keep an eye on upcoming earnings reports and insider activity for clues on Webull’s trajectory. With the stock near multi-month lows, Webull’s next chapter will be crucial in determining whether BULL charges ahead once again or continues to struggle in the shadow of larger rivals.

Sources: Webull Q2 2025 Earnings Release ^[103] ^[104]; StockAnalysis profile ^[105]; CMC Markets report ^[106] ^[107]; Stocktwits news (Oct 7–8, 2025) ^[108] ^[109]; Rosenblatt & Northland analyst coverage ^[110] ^[111]; TS2.tech/Reuters market data ^[112] ^[113].

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References