Wesfarmers Limited (ASX:WES) heads into the new trading week sitting just above A$80 a share, fresh from record profits, a hefty capital return and special dividend – but also under the cloud of rising costs, tax uncertainty and a short‑term technical downtrend. Market Index
Here’s what traders and long‑term investors may want to have on their radar before the Australian market opens on Monday, 24 November 2025.
1. Where the Wesfarmers share price sits before Monday’s open
Wesfarmers shares closed on Friday, 21 November 2025 at A$80.03, down 1.36% for the day from a previous close of A$81.13. Intraday, the stock traded between A$79.65 and A$80.80. Wesfarmers
Key price context:
- Short‑term performance: Over the last fortnight the share price has drifted slightly lower, with a roughly 0.9% loss over the past two weeks. StockInvest
- One‑year and year‑to‑date: Wesfarmers’ market cap has climbed to about A$90.8 billion, with the stock up around 16–17% in 2025. Total shareholder return over the past year is roughly 20% and around 88% over three years, underlining strong long‑term performance. StockAnalysis
- Trading range: The group’s own share price page shows a 52‑week range of approximately A$66.5 to A$93.5, placing the current price in the lower half of that band after a pull‑back from record highs. Wesfarmers
From a technical perspective, Wesfarmers recently appeared on Market Index’s Downtrends scan, with the stock noted around A$79.96, down about 9% over one month but still up roughly 16–17% over 12 months. Market Index
In other words, long‑term trend: still up; near‑term trend: under pressure.
2. The big near‑term driver: A$1.7 billion capital return and special dividend
The main corporate event hanging over Wesfarmers right now is its 2025 capital management initiative, worth about A$1.7 billion in total. Wesfarmers
The distribution is expected to be structured as:
- A$1.10 per share – capital return
- A$0.40 per share – fully‑franked special dividend
Together, that’s A$1.50 per share in additional cash for eligible shareholders, separate from ordinary dividends. Simply Wall St
Key dates (now mostly behind the market):
- AGM approval: 30 October 2025 – shareholders voted in favour of the capital return at the 2025 Annual General Meeting. Wesfarmers
- Ex‑date for capital return and special dividend: 5 November 2025
- Record date: 6 November 2025, 4:00 pm Perth time Asxonline
- Payment date: 4 December 2025, when the capital return and special dividend are scheduled to be paid. Wesfarmers
For traders before the 24 November open, this means:
- The stock is already trading ex‑entitlement to the A$1.50 per share capital management distribution.
- Any buyer from now on will not receive that payment, though the share price has already adjusted lower to reflect the upcoming cash outflow. Asxonline
However, the looming 4 December cash return may still influence sentiment and portfolio positioning, especially for income‑focused investors rebalancing around the event.
3. FY25 earnings recap: still a Bunnings–Kmart story
Wesfarmers’ full‑year results for the 12 months to 30 June 2025 set the fundamental backdrop for the current share price.
Headline numbers:
- Reported NPAT: around A$2.9 billion, up about 14% year‑on‑year. Wesfarmers
- Underlying NPAT (ex significant items): roughly A$2.65–2.7 billion, up about 3.8–4%. Reuters
- Revenue: about A$45.7 billion, up roughly 3.4%. Investing
Segment performance (simplified):
- Bunnings (home improvement): earnings before tax up about 3.8%, driven by continued demand for home repair and necessity products. Reuters
- Kmart Group (Kmart & Target): earnings up roughly 9%, benefiting from value‑focused shoppers trading down amid cost‑of‑living pressures. Reuters
- Officeworks: earnings grew only modestly and management has flagged margin pressure and likely lower earnings in the new year due to higher costs and restructuring. News
Together with its chemicals, fertilisers, industrials and health divisions (including pharmaceuticals and wellbeing products), Wesfarmers remains one of Australia’s most diversified conglomerates. Market Index
Importantly for FY26 (the current financial year), management has said that the retail divisions traded solidly in the first eight weeks of the new year, with Bunnings sales growth stronger than in the second half of FY25, and decent early momentum at Kmart and Officeworks despite the cost headwinds. Yahoo Finance
4. AGM takeaways: cost pressures, tax uncertainty and retail crime
The 30 October 2025 AGM in Perth gave investors a fresh look at trading conditions – and it wasn’t all good news.
Mixed trading update and share price reaction
In speaking notes lodged with the ASX ahead of the AGM, CEO Rob Scott said:
- Sales growth at Bunnings had improved versus the June half,
- But consumers remained cautious, with cost‑of‑living pressures still weighing on confidence. The Nightly
The market didn’t like the tone. On the day of the AGM, Wesfarmers’ share price fell around 7%, wiping more than A$7 billion off the company’s market value and pulling the stock back from its recent highs. The West Australian
“Onerous” tax proposal
At the same meeting, outgoing chair Michael Chaney and management went on the offensive over a proposed 5% cash‑flow tax on large companies, arguing that:
- It could push Wesfarmers’ effective tax burden to roughly 43%,
- And risk discouraging investment in Australia by making the tax system uncompetitive. News
That debate may not move the share price day‑to‑day, but it’s an emerging medium‑term risk: if the proposal or similar reforms advance, investors may need to re‑assess valuation assumptions.
Rising retail crime and safety costs
Another AGM theme was a sharp rise in threats and assaults against staff in Wesfarmers’ retail chains:
- Management disclosed around 13,500 customer threats and over 1,000 assaults across brands, with Bunnings and Kmart seeing particularly large increases in incidents. Courier Mail
Beyond the social concern, this has financial implications: more security, training, technology and potential legal costs. Wesfarmers is lobbying for tougher laws and considering more use of technology to enforce bans and protect workers, which could impact capex and operating costs over time. Courier Mail
5. Broker and analyst views heading into 24 November
Fresh broker move: Ord Minnett upgrades Wesfarmers
The most recent notable piece of broker news comes from Ord Minnett, which has upgraded Wesfarmers from “Lighten” to “Hold” in its latest broker call round‑up, as highlighted in FNArena’s Monday Report for 24 November 2025. FN Arena
That is a tonal shift from Ord Minnett’s longstanding caution on the stock (they cut Wesfarmers to Lighten back in 2022) and suggests the broker now sees the risk‑reward as more balanced around current levels rather than clearly skewed to the downside. Fool
Consensus target and rating
According to Investing.com’s Wesfarmers page:
- The average 12‑month price target sits around A$81.33, only a little above Friday’s close.
- Individual broker targets range from about A$58 on the low side to A$100 on the high side.
- The aggregated recommendation is skewed towards “Sell”, with 1 buy rating and 6 sell recommendations in the sample they track. Investing
That paints a picture of a high‑quality business on a full valuation, where many analysts see limited upside at current prices.
Other commentary
- Some quantitative/technical services describe Wesfarmers as a short‑term “strong sell” on trend and momentum indicators after its recent pull‑back. StockInvest
- On the flip side, several long‑term‑focused commentators (including some on The Motley Fool and Rask) continue to present Wesfarmers as a top‑tier ASX dividend and compounding stock despite the recent volatility. Fool
For investors reading this before the 24 November open, the message is clear: there is no single market view. Some see a premium‑priced defensive compounder; others see an expensive retailer facing rising costs.
6. Valuation, dividends and yield going into year‑end
Earnings multiple
With the share price around A$80, Wesfarmers trades on roughly 31 times trailing earnings, according to StockAnalysis data. StockAnalysis
That places it at a significant premium to many other ASX 200 names, particularly in the consumer and industrial sectors, reflecting:
- The perceived quality and resilience of Bunnings and Kmart,
- Strong returns on equity (over 30% ROE on a trailing basis),
- And the conglomerate’s long history of disciplined capital allocation and divestments. Wisesheets
Ordinary dividends and capital management
For FY25, Wesfarmers has declared ordinary dividends totalling A$2.06 per share, about 4% higher than the prior year. News
At a share price of roughly A$80, that equates to a trailing ordinary dividend yield of around 2.6% (fully franked).
If you also include the one‑off A$1.50 per share capital management distribution (A$1.10 capital return + A$0.40 special dividend), the total cash yield for FY25 jumps to roughly 4.5%, although that higher rate should not be assumed to recur. Simply Wall St
In short:
- Income story: Solid but not spectacular on ordinary dividends alone, enhanced by the current one‑off return of capital.
- Valuation story: You’re paying a premium P/E multiple for earnings that are growing modestly in aggregate but robustly in key retail segments.
7. Trading lens: what to watch in Wesfarmers on 24 November
Putting it all together, here are the main factors that could influence Wesfarmers’ share price as the market opens on Monday, 24 November 2025:
- Reaction to the Ord Minnett upgrade
- The shift from Lighten to Hold may provide some support after recent weakness, especially if short‑term traders see it as a sign that the de‑rating has gone far enough for now. FN Arena
- Whether support holds around the A$80 level
- Recent data shows Wesfarmers clustering around the high‑70s to low‑80s, with A$80 acting as a psychological round‑number level after the AGM‑driven sell‑off. Wesfarmers
- Ongoing digestion of the capital return and special dividend
- With the stock already ex‑entitlement but the 4 December payment date still ahead, some investors may continue to reposition portfolios for tax and income reasons, which can add short‑term volatility. Wesfarmers
- Macro and interest‑rate sentiment
- Wesfarmers traded sharply lower with other consumer‑exposed names during October’s broader ASX pull‑back, driven by worries that interest rates may stay higher for longer. Any fresh macro news over the weekend or on Monday could sway sentiment for the entire consumer‑discretionary space. News
- Ongoing narrative around costs, tax and retail crime
- Investors will continue to weigh management’s warnings about cost pressures, potential tax changes and higher security/operating costs against the company’s strong balance sheet and cash‑generation ability. News
8. Bottom line: high‑quality stock, crowded trade
Heading into the 24 November open, Wesfarmers looks like:
- A high‑quality conglomerate with powerhouse brands (Bunnings, Kmart, Officeworks) and a track record of value creation; Market Index
- Offering a moderate ordinary dividend yield plus a sizeable one‑off capital return for those already on the register;
- Trading on a rich valuation, with many analysts seeing limited upside from current levels but at least one major broker (Ord Minnett) relaxing its previously bearish stance; Investing
- And facing real‑world pressures from rising costs, regulatory debate and surging retail crime that could influence margins and sentiment.
For traders, Monday’s session will be about whether Wesfarmers can hold the line around A$80 and whether the broker upgrade plus looming cash return is enough to stabilise the recent downtrend. For longer‑term investors, the focus remains on earnings resilience in Bunnings and Kmart, the success of ongoing capital management and how management navigates the challenging policy and cost environment.
This article is general information only and does not constitute financial product advice. It has been prepared without taking your objectives, financial situation or needs into account. Consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision.
