Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS, NYSE: WDS) Stock on 1 December 2025: Strike Fears vs LNG Super‑Growth

Published: 1 December 2025. This article is general information, not personal investment advice.

Where Woodside’s share price sits at the start of December 2025

As the ASX opens on Monday, 1 December 2025, Woodside Energy Group Ltd is trading near the upper end of its recent range after a choppy year for energy stocks.

On the ASX, Woodside last closed at AU$24.93 (28 November), against a 52‑week range of roughly AU$18.61–27.30 and a 1‑year gain of about 1.7%, though the 3‑year return is still around ‑30%. ^[1]
In New York, the ADR finished Friday at US$16.36–16.39, also close to its 52‑week high of US$17.70 and well above the low near US$11.26. ^[2]

Volatility has been modest: Simply Wall St estimates average weekly moves of about 3.6%, lower than the Australian oil and gas sector’s ~11% and the broader market’s ~9–10%. ^[3]

On income, Woodside has continued to lean hard into dividends:

Interim 2025 dividend: US$0.53 per share, fully franked. ^[4]
Earlier 2025 distribution (March): US$0.84 per share. ^[5]

Depending on whether you look at ASX or ADR pricing, most dividend trackers now peg Woodside’s trailing yield in the high‑single digits. ^[6]

In other words: by 1 December 2025, the market is pricing Woodside as a high‑yield, relatively low‑volatility LNG major, but not some unloved deep‑value orphan.

The freshest headlines: strike ballot, Sunrise breakthrough and Aramco’s LNG flirtation

The news flow over the past fortnight has been unusually dense for Woodside. Three themes dominate the story as December begins.

1. Strike risk at Pluto LNG 2

Australia’s Fair Work Commission has approved a union request for a strike ballot at Woodside’s Pluto LNG 2 expansion project in Western Australia. ^[7]

Key points:

The ballot must be held by 4 December 2025. If workers vote yes, industrial action could begin before year‑end. ^[8]
The Offshore Alliance (Maritime Union of Australia + Australian Workers Union) says Pluto 2 workers are paid roughly 30% less than comparable workers at Chevron’s Wheatstone LNG once inflation is factored in, and is pushing for a similar uplift. ^[9]
Pluto 2 is designed as a 5 Mtpa expansion train, currently around 91% complete, with first LNG cargo targeted for the second half of 2026. ^[10]

Analysts at GuruFocus and others have flagged that a prolonged strike could delay first cargo and push up project costs, at the very moment Woodside is trying to convince investors it can execute multiple mega‑projects in parallel. ^[11]

2. Greater Sunrise finally moves – with a Timor‑Leste LNG concept

After decades of stalemate, Woodside and Timor‑Leste have signed a cooperation agreement to study a Timor‑based LNG development for the Greater Sunrise gas fields. ^[12]

The framework envisions:

A ~5 Mtpa greenfield LNG plant on Timor’s south coast. ^[13]
A domestic gas facility to supply Timor‑Leste. ^[14]
A helium extraction plant, giving Woodside exposure to a niche, high‑value market that serves semiconductor and other advanced industries. ^[15]
First LNG between 2032–2035, if the project is sanctioned. ^[16]

Woodside holds 33.44% of Greater Sunrise; Timor Gap has 56.56%, and Osaka Gas 10%. ^[17]

The project still faces big technical and political questions — not least how to run a gas pipeline across the deep Timor Trough and how to structure fiscal and legal regimes — but this is the first time both sides have agreed on a tentative start‑up window, which markets are treating as a genuine, if long‑dated, option on new LNG capacity.

3. Saudi Aramco circling Woodside’s Louisiana LNG

Saudi Aramco’s push into US LNG is increasingly wrapped around Woodside’s Louisiana LNG project:

Reuters reported that Aramco is set to sign US LNG supply deals with Woodside and Commonwealth LNG, tied to a Washington visit by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. ^[18]
Separate reporting indicates Aramco is expected to take a stake in Woodside’s US$17.5 billion Louisiana LNG project, deepening its role beyond simple offtake. ^[19]
Woodside had already disclosed an agreement with Aramco to explore collaboration, including the possibility of an equity stake and LNG offtake from Louisiana LNG and ammonia opportunities linked to its Beaumont project. ^[20]

For Woodside, a credible partner like Aramco can:

Bring capital and balance‑sheet strength into a massive US project.
Underwrite offtake volumes, reducing market risk.
Signal that big buyers are willing to commit to long‑term US LNG, even in a world obsessing over decarbonisation.

The flip side, of course, is partner risk and project complexity: the more entities at the table, the trickier it can be to keep timelines and returns on track.

2025 so far: production, projects and guidance

Operationally, Woodside’s 2025 story is about steady volumes, lower unit costs, and aggressive project build‑out.

Production and guidance

H1 2025 production totalled 99.2 million boe at a unit production cost of US$7.7/boe, down from prior periods. ^[21]
Q2 2025 production: 50.1 MMboe, up 2% quarter‑on‑quarter, with strong contributions from the Sangomar oil project. ^[22]
Q3 2025 production: 50.8 MMboe, up another 1%, supporting a full‑year guidance upgrade to 192–197 MMboe (from 188–195). ^[23]

Revenue, however, hasn’t kept pace with volumes:

Q3 revenue fell about 9% year‑on‑year to US$3.36 billion, despite higher production, reflecting softer commodity prices. ^[24]

This “more barrels, less revenue per barrel” pattern is classic commodity‑cycle stuff: operational execution is good, but pricing power still lives with the global gas and oil market, not Woodside’s board.

Mega projects: where they stand as of late 2025

From Woodside’s Q2 and Q3 reports, plus Capital Markets Day and other updates, we can map the current status of its flagship growth projects:

Scarborough Energy Project (Australia)
- ~91% complete by Q3 2025. ^[25]
- First LNG cargo targeted in the second half of 2026. ^[26]
Trion (offshore Mexico)
- About 35–43% complete between Q2 and Q3. ^[27]
- First oil still guided for 2028. ^[28]
Beaumont New Ammonia (Texas)
- 95–97% complete by mid‑2025, with first ammonia expected in late 2025. ^[29]
Louisiana LNG (US Gulf Coast)
- Final investment decision (FID) approved in April 2025; the project is a US$17.5 billion, 3‑train, 16.5 Mtpa LNG facility, targeting first LNG in 2029 and potentially expanding to 27.5 Mtpa later. ^[30]
- Construction was ~19% complete by Q3, with Train 1 roughly a quarter finished. ^[31]
- Woodside has sold down 40% of Louisiana LNG Infrastructure LLC to private equity firm Stonepeak for about US$5.7 billion, with Stonepeak funding 75% of capex in 2025 and 2026. ^[32]
North West Shelf & Bass Strait (Australia)
- The Australian government has granted final environmental approval for the North West Shelf Project extension, allowing operations beyond 2030 subject to conditions. ^[33]
- Woodside has agreed to assume operatorship of the Bass Strait assets from ExxonMobil, aiming to unlock up to ~200 PJ of additional gas through new wells, with completion expected in 2026. ^[34]

Add in a long list of long‑term LNG sale and purchase agreements and heads of agreement — with Uniper, JERA, PETRONAS and Turkey’s BOTAS among others — and you have a company betting big that global LNG demand will stay robust well into the 2030s. ^[35]

Strategic story from Capital Markets Day: a 50% sales uplift by 2032

At its 2025 Capital Markets Day in November, Woodside laid out the “big picture”:

Management expects annual sales volumes to rise from 203.5 MMboe in 2024 to around 300 MMboe by 2032, roughly a 50% uplift. ^[36]
Net operating cash flow is targeted to grow from about US$5 billion today to ~US$9 billion by the early 2030s, implying more than 6% annual growth in both sales and cash flow. ^[37]
That cash flow growth, if achieved with “disciplined capital management,” is supposed to support roughly a 50% increase in dividends per share between 2024 and 2032. ^[38]

The pitch is straightforward: Woodside sees itself as a “LNG plus ammonia” cash machine:

LNG demand forecast to grow about 60% by 2035 according to Wood Mackenzie, with ammonia demand potentially doubling by 2050. ^[39]
Operated LNG assets have delivered ~98% reliability over the last four years, and Sangomar has been running at >98% reliability since start‑up. ^[40]

For investors, the key question is not whether Woodside has enough project inventory — it clearly does — but whether it can deliver all this on time and on budget while the world tries to decarbonise and while labour and cost pressures increase.

Financial health, balance sheet and dividends

On the numbers, Woodside remains profitable and cash‑generative, but the capital structure is not risk‑free.

2024 full‑year underlying profit came in at US$2.88 billion, the lowest in three years, mainly because average realised prices fell around 7%; statutory profit was higher due to one‑off items. ^[41]
Long‑term debt is manageable: US‑traded metrics show a debt‑to‑equity ratio around 0.31, with a quick ratio of 1.74 and current ratio 1.90 — comfortable liquidity by energy‑sector standards. ^[42]
Q2 2025 saw Woodside issue US$3.5 billion of unsecured bonds, ending the quarter with around US$8.4 billion in liquidity. ^[43]

However, some quantitative models do wave a yellow flag:

GuruFocus calculates an Altman Z‑Score around 1.3, which technically sits in the “distress zone” used by that model, even though traditional solvency ratios look fine. ^[44]

On valuation and income:

Simply Wall St pegs the current P/E at ~10.5x and P/S at ~2.3x and estimates the stock is about 34% above its intrinsic value, labelling it overvalued based on their DCF. ^[45]
Stocksguide’s screen shows P/E (trailing) 10.56, forward P/E 13.62, P/S 2.29–2.42 and a 2025 performance yield of about 8.3%, reflecting both dividends and modest price appreciation. ^[46]

So the balance‑sheet verdict is: solid but not bulletproof. Woodside is not obviously over‑levered, but it is committed to a very heavy capex programme at a time when interest rates are still elevated and labour markets are tight.

What the forecasts and analysts say on 1 December 2025

If you ask ten different analysts what Woodside is worth, you’ll get… well, at least five different answers.

Broker consensus: mild optimism

Investing.com’s consensus, pulling together 15 analysts, classifies Woodside as a “Buy”, with 7 buys, 0 sells and 8 holds and an average 12‑month price target around 27.6 (with a wide range from ~23.2 to 44.6). ^[47]
In the US, MarketBeat shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus on the ADR: one Strong Buy, one Buy and three Holds. ^[48]
However, Wall Street Zen recently downgraded Woodside from “Hold” to “Sell”, while Weiss Ratings maintains a “Hold (c)” rating — and MarketBeat notes that the ADR’s latest open at US$16.48 is basically in line with some US‑focused price targets. ^[49]

In short: most traditional brokers are moderately positive, but not wildly so, and at least one screening service is actively unimpressed.

Fair‑value and DCF models: not much upside

A few independent platforms are more sceptical:

Simply Wall St: says Woodside’s current ASX price (~AU$24.93) is ~33–34% above its estimate of fair value, implying limited upside unless growth overshoots expectations. ^[50]
GuruFocus: points out that P/E, P/S and P/B are close to their 1‑year highs and that the Altman Z‑Score is low, suggesting the stock trades near the upper end of its historical valuation band for the current fundamentals. ^[51]
TIKR: its valuation model projects a 2029 mid‑case target price of US$16.57 for the ADR, implying only about 1% total return through 2029 (an annualised IRR of roughly 0.2%) if their base assumptions play out. ^[52]

Meanwhile, a Simply Wall St narrative tracking analyst models notes that consensus fair value for Woodside has been nudged up slightly from ~A$27.38 to A$27.61 following the Capital Markets Day — still above the current price, but the increase is only about 0.8%. ^[53]

Short‑term technical and trading calls

For traders rather than long‑term DCF‑heads:

StockInvest expects WDS.AX to open around AU$24.98 on 1 December 2025, with a typical intraday range between about AU$24.70 and 25.16, and characterises the stock as having “several negative signals” but, in practice, a “hold/accumulate” profile for existing holders. ^[54]
The same service notes the share price is sitting just below key volume resistance at AU$24.98, with meaningful support only down near AU$23.06, giving a skewed risk/reward for very short‑term trades. ^[55]
Energy Stock Channel earlier flagged the US ADR as “oversold” in October when it traded below US$15 with RSI under 30; since then it has rebounded to the mid‑US$16s. ^[56]

Long‑term quant forecasts

If you look at pure algorithmic projections:

Stockscan’s long‑term forecast has the ADR at US$11.29 by 2030, US$5.89 by 2040 and back up to US$24.15 by 2050 — a wildly path‑dependent journey that underscores how sensitive these models are to input assumptions about prices, discount rates and project timing. ^[57]

You should treat these algorithmic outputs as thought experiments, not destiny. They’re useful as a sanity check on how very different assumptions can produce wildly different “fair values”.

How the market narrative is evolving

Several recent analyses try to reconcile these mixed signals:

A TIKR deep‑dive describes Woodside as sitting in the “middle ground”: strong cash generation and a solid balance sheet, but with earnings still heavily tied to global prices and project timing, leaving valuation with low single‑digit upside under base‑case scenarios. ^[58]
A Simply Wall St update summarising analyst commentary notes that fair value estimates have ticked slightly higher, supported by upgraded revenue expectations and modestly lower discount rates, even as margin forecasts soften a bit. ^[59]
Australian retail‑investor coverage (e.g., Motley Fool, Morningstar) tends to frame Woodside primarily as a high‑yield, fully‑franked dividend play with moderate capital‑growth potential, not a high‑octane growth stock. ^[60]

Overlay this with October’s Capital Markets Day promises and the Aramco headlines, and you get a working narrative:

If Woodside executes Scarborough, Louisiana LNG, Trion and Greater Sunrise on time, the company becomes a bigger, more globally diversified LNG player with hefty cash flows — but the current share price already bakes in a good chunk of that success.

Key risks and catalysts to watch after 1 December 2025

As of today, here are the main swing factors that could tug Woodside shares higher or lower over the next 12–24 months:

1. Pluto LNG 2 industrial action

Strike ballot outcome (by 4 December) is the immediate catalyst. A strong “yes” vote and prolonged industrial action could delay first LNG and increase capex, undercutting near‑term cash flow and confidence in Woodside’s project‑execution narrative. ^[61]

2. Global LNG and oil pricing

Woodside’s 2024 profit dip was largely driven by weaker realised oil and gas prices, not poor operations. ^[62]
OPEC+ has just opted to maintain current output while introducing a capacity mechanism, and oil prices have been volatile on the news; seaborne gas prices remain hostage to European storage levels, Asian winters and geopolitics. ^[63]

If LNG prices stay robust into the late 2020s, projects like Scarborough and Louisiana LNG could look like cash geysers. If prices sag under over‑capacity, those same projects could look merely “fine” or even disappointing.

3. Mega‑project execution

Investors will be tracking:

Scarborough’s first LNG cargo date and final cost envelope. ^[64]
Louisiana LNG’s construction pace, regulator interactions and partner line‑up (Stonepeak, Aramco and others). ^[65]
Trion’s progress and any updates on first‑oil timing or cost inflation. ^[66]
The practical steps toward Greater Sunrise FID after the new Timor‑Leste agreement. ^[67]

4. Regulatory, ESG and legal pressure

A US court has previously ordered regulators to more thoroughly assess emissions from Louisiana LNG, underlining that permitting is not a one‑and‑done exercise for large fossil projects. ^[68]
The Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility has been vocal about climate concerns and director elections, and Woodside remains a lightning rod in Australia’s climate debate. ^[69]

Greater ESG pressure can affect everything from cost of capital to project timelines.

5. Upcoming financial events

Woodside is scheduled to report full‑year 2025 results in late February 2026, with analysts watching: updated guidance, dividend decisions, and any revisions to project schedules or capex. ^[70]
Any confirmation of Aramco’s stake and offtake volumes at Louisiana LNG will also be closely watched as a validation (or re‑rating) catalyst. ^[71]

Bottom line: how Woodside looks on 1 December 2025

Putting it all together:

Operationally, Woodside is doing almost everything it said it would do: volumes are solid, unit costs are drifting lower, and big projects are mostly on schedule. ^[72]
Strategically, the company is doubling down on LNG and ammonia, betting that the energy transition will be messy and gas‑heavy, and that its Atlantic + Pacific LNG footprint will be hard to replicate. ^[73]
Financially, leverage is moderate, cash flows are strong and dividends are generous — but various fair‑value models suggest there isn’t an obvious “deep discount” at today’s price. ^[74]
Risk‑wise, the Pluto 2 strike ballot, mega‑project execution, and long‑term LNG price path are the big swing variables. ^[75]

For now, as of 1 December 2025, Woodside looks like what it actually is: a large, reasonably efficient, dividend‑heavy LNG major with serious growth options, some labour and ESG headaches, and a valuation that assumes a fair amount of that growth shows up on time.