Key facts (Sept 26, 2025)
- Spot gold traded around $3,778/oz early afternoon New York time, up ~0.8% on the day and ~2.5% on the week after August PCE inflation matched forecasts. Silver hovered near $46.4/oz, at a 14‑year high. 1
- This week’s highs: Gold set a fresh all‑time intraday record ~$3,791 on Tuesday; silver first hit $45 on Thursday—its highest since 2011. 1
- Macro catalyst: Core PCE ran ~2.9% y/y in August (in line), keeping rate‑cut odds for October high (CME FedWatch ≈88%). Next FOMC is Oct 28–29. 2
- Policy shock: A new U.S. tariff package (100% on patented drugs; 25% on heavy trucks; other sector levies) announced this week added safe‑haven bid. 3
- Asia’s physical market: China dealers widened discounts to $31–$71/oz vs global prices; India showed premiums up to $7/oz and record‑high local prices ahead of festivals. 4
- Drivers of the 2025 rally: Heavy central‑bank buying (annual totals above 1,000 tonnes since 2022) and a revival of ETF inflows in H1. 5
- Silver’s fundamentals: The Silver Institute still sees a sizeable 2025 market deficit (~149 Moz) alongside record industrial demand, led by solar. 6
- Vault signals: LBMA London silver holdings stood at ~24,646 tonnes at end‑August; gold 8,831 tonnes—useful context for physical liquidity. 7
- Gold‑silver ratio (GSR): Around ~81 today (gold ≈$3,778 / silver ≈$46.4), down from the mid‑80s earlier in September—supportive for silver’s catch‑up. 8
- Street views: UBS now targets $3,800 by end‑2025 (and $3,900 by mid‑2026); Goldman says >$4,000 is plausible if investor demand accelerates. 9
In‑depth report
Where prices stand right now
Gold firmed after August PCE landed near consensus, reinforcing odds of further Fed easing. Spot gold traded near $3,778/oz by 1:30 p.m. ET; December futures settled around $3,809. Silver gained to ~$46.4/oz, a 14‑year high. 1
“Monthly PCE data is in line… Nothing from this data will prevent the Fed from carrying on with another cautious rate cut at the October meeting,” said Tai Wong. 1
What moved metals this week (Sept 22–26)
- Mon–Tue: Gold broke to fresh records, touching ~$3,791 Tuesday as bets solidified for continued Fed easing; silver pushed through $44. 1
- Wed: A dollar bounce and profit‑taking knocked gold off the high, but prices stayed near records. 10
- Thu: Silver stole the headlines—>$45 for the first time since 2011—as risk hedging intensified. 11
- Fri: PCE landed near forecasts; gold rebounded and silver stayed elevated. 1
Macro backdrop: rates, inflation and tariffs
The core PCE inflation gauge is running around 2.9% y/y, close to expectations and below 2022 peaks, keeping alive the case for additional Fed “risk‑management” cuts. Market‑implied odds show ~88% probability of an October cut; the FOMC meets Oct 28–29. 2
Newly announced U.S. tariffs (100% on some branded drugs, 25% on heavy trucks, plus furniture and other items) added policy uncertainty and safe‑haven demand for gold and silver. 3
Physical markets: East–West divergence
- China: With international prices at records, retail demand softened and local discounts widened to $31–$71/oz—a multi‑year low for onshore appetite. 4
- India: Buyers paid up to $7/oz premiums over official prices, with domestic gold around ₹112,500/10g and silver hitting record rupee highs into festival season. Imports of silver, after slumping in H1, re‑accelerated in recent weeks. 4
Investment & central‑bank demand
The 2025 surge has been powered by central banks and a return of ETF interest. Central‑bank purchases have exceeded 1,000 tonnes/year since 2022 as reserve managers diversify away from the dollar; H1 saw the largest ETF inflows since 2020. 5
UBS raised its year‑end 2025 gold target to $3,800, writing: “We maintain an Attractive view on gold and stay long.” Reuters
Goldman Sachs argues prices could surpass $4,000 by mid‑2026 if private investors rotate more aggressively into bullion. 12
Silver’s unique setup: deficit + solar + substitution
Metals Focus, via the Silver Institute, expects another sizeable market deficit in 2025 (~149 Moz) and record industrial demand, led by photovoltaics (PV), autos and electronics. 6
At the same time, PV manufacturers are thrifting silver loads to manage costs. As Philip Newman of Metals Focus told pv magazine: “It’s quite possible that we may see the $50 threshold being exceeded next year,” which would push PV makers to further reduce silver loads. 13
Vaults & liquidity: As of end‑August, LBMA London held ~24,646 tonnes of silver and 8,831 tonnes of gold—a snapshot of available liquidity in the world’s key OTC hub. 7
The gold–silver ratio (GSR) is swinging toward silver
Using today’s spot levels, the GSR sits near ~81, down from ~86 earlier in September and below its five‑year average (~82)—a relative tailwind for silver if the trend persists. 8
Expert voices to watch
- Tai Wong (metals trader): “Nothing… will prevent the Fed from carrying on with another cautious rate cut in October.” 1
- Nicholas Frappell (ABC Refinery): A 5–6% correction is possible before $4,000 in 2026. 14
- UBS (strategy note): “Attractive view on gold… mid‑single‑digit allocation optimal.” 9
- Philip Newman (Metals Focus): Silver >$50 next year is “quite possible”; PV manufacturers likely to thrift more silver. 13
Short‑term scenarios (next 1–3 months)
Bullish path
- Fed delivers another cut in late October; real yields ease; gold retests $3,800–3,900, silver probes $48–50. Tariff uncertainty and geopolitical risks persist. 15
- Continued central‑bank buying and ETF inflows extend the uptrend. 5
Sideways/consolidation
- A dollar or yield bounce after strong U.S. data tempers momentum; gold ranges $3,650–3,820, silver $44–47ahead of FOMC. 16
Bearish near‑term risk
- Hotter‑than‑expected data or Fed pushback lifts real rates, triggering a 5–8% pullback, consistent with analysts’ warnings about an overbought tape. 14
What to watch next
- FOMC (Oct 28–29): Statement, SEP projections and Powell presser—key for real‑rate trajectory. 15
- U.S. data flow: ISM, JOLTS, jobless claims, and the next PCE print. (Today’s PCE was in line.) 2
- Tariff implementation and trade frictions—any expansion beyond this week’s measures could bolster safe‑haven flows. 3
- Physical premiums/discounts in China & India for signs of demand elasticity at record prices. 4
- LBMA vault updates (monthly) and ETF holdings for confirmation of investment demand. 7
Forecasts & house views roundup (late‑Sept 2025)
- UBS: $3,800 end‑2025; $3,900 mid‑2026 (still Attractive on gold). 9
- Goldman Sachs: Baseline $3,700 2025, $4,000 mid‑2026; $4,500 scenario if private investors rotate. 12
- Consensus tone in industry forums: Uptrend intact but prone to tactical corrections before higher highs in 2026. 14
Practical takeaways (public audience)
- Volatility is normal at records. Position sizes and risk controls matter more than usual as markets digest policy, inflation and trade headlines. (See today’s PCE and tariff context.) 2
- Diversification case remains intact while real rates drift lower and central banks keep buying. 5
- Silver’s torque cuts both ways. Deficits and PV demand help, but thrifting can blunt price spikes; expect larger swings than gold. 6
Sources & further reading (Sept 22–26, 2025)
- Daily/weekly price & drivers: Reuters metals wrap on Sept 26; gold record highs Sept 22, 24; silver’s 14‑year high. 1
- Silver hits $45: Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance. 11
- Asia physical flows: China discounts and India premiums. 4
- PCE inflation: Reuters explainer and live update. 2
- Tariffs (policy shock): Reuters tariffs coverage and electronics‑tariff proposal. 3
- Central‑bank & ETF demand: Reuters explainer on who is buying gold. 5
- LBMA vault data: August 2025 holdings—gold & silver. 7
- Silver fundamentals & outlook: Silver Institute 2025 deficit/record industrial demand; PV thrifting & $50 risk. 6
- Street forecasts: UBS & Goldman Sachs notes. 9
Note: Spot prices vary by venue and timestamp. Figures above reflect widely cited benchmarks and intraday quotes reported by major outlets on Sept 26, 2025. For official benchmarks (London AM/PM and LBMA Silver Price), refer to LBMA publications and licensed data vendors.
