Nebius (NBIS) Stock Rockets on $17B Microsoft AI Deal – Explosive Growth & Outlook Revealed!

Ticker: NBIS (Nasdaq); Sector: Technology – AI Infrastructure.
Company: Amsterdam-based Nebius Group N.V., co-founded by Yandex veteran Arkady Volozh. Originally Yandex N.V., it split from Russian Yandex in 2024 and refocused on AI data-center/cloud services ^[1] ^[2].
Market Cap (Sept ’25): ~$24 billion (at ~$108/share) ^[3].
Price (Sept 26, 2025): $107.70 ^[4] (pre-market ~$109.65 on Sept 29).
YTD Performance: ~+245% in 2025 ^[5], driven by surging AI demand and big deals.
Key News (Sep 2025): Won a $17.4 billion multi-year AI infrastructure contract with Microsoft (up to $19.4B with options) ^[6] ^[7]. This fueled a massive stock rally (see table below).

Overview of Nebius Group (NBIS)

Nebius Group N.V. is a fast-growing AI infrastructure company. It was originally founded in 1989 as Yandex N.V. by Arkady Volozh (the Yandex search engine founder) ^[8]. In mid-2024, Nebius sold the Russian Yandex businesses to local investors and re-emerged in Amsterdam focused on global AI cloud services ^[9]. Today Nebius designs and operates GPU-powered data centers and a full-stack AI cloud platform. It raised $700 million from private investors (including NVIDIA and Accel) in Dec 2024 ^[10]. Nebius now owns data centers in Finland (Mäntsälä) and clusters in Paris and Kansas City, with a 300 MW AI center under construction in Vineland, New Jersey ^[11]. Beyond cloud, Nebius also owns Avride (autonomous delivery vehicles) and TripleTen (ed-tech training), and holds stakes in data-annotation firm Toloka and database company ClickHouse ^[12] ^[13].

Stock Performance & Price Summary (as of Sept 29, 2025)

NBIS has been one of 2025’s most explosive tech stocks. After trading around $14 in late 2024, it climbed steadily in 2025 and soared after major AI deal news. On September 9, 2025, NBIS jumped +49.4% intraday to close at $95.72 ^[14] on news of the Microsoft contract. It then continued upward, briefly reaching ~$113 on Sept 24 before settling around $107.70 by Sept 26 ^[15]. In table form:

Date	NBIS Close (USD)	Daily Change
Sep 9, 2025	$95.72	+49.4% ^[16]
Sep 19, 2025	$99.31	+5.5% ^[17]
Sep 24, 2025	$113.23	+5.0% ^[18]
Sep 26, 2025	$107.70	-0.2% ^[19]

Table: Key NBIS stock moves around late Sept 2025 (source: historical price data ^[20] ^[21] ^[22]).

Overall, NBIS is up roughly +250% so far in 2025 ^[23] ^[24]. By comparison, major AI peers and indices rose far less. Its market cap (~$23.4B ^[25]) now rivals much larger companies, illustrating how rapidly it has grown.

Recent News & Developments (Last Few Days)

The biggest news was the Microsoft AI infrastructure deal announced Sept 8–9. Nebius disclosed a 5-year agreement to supply high-performance computing capacity to Microsoft’s AI cloud (from Nebius’s new Vineland, NJ center), with a base value of $17.4 billion and up to $19.4 billion with options ^[26] ^[27]. CEO Arkady Volozh hailed it as “the first of these [major] contracts” with more to come, and said it will help “accelerate the growth of our AI cloud business… in 2026 and beyond” ^[28]. Nebius said it will finance the associated capital expenses partly via the deal’s cash flow and new debt (on favorable terms), while exploring further funding to accelerate expansion ^[29].

Following the Microsoft news, Nebius quickly announced a $3.0 billion fundraising (Sept 10) to fuel its growth ^[30]. This consisted of a $2B convertible note and $1B equity offering ^[31]. The timing was strategic: its share price had more than doubled on the Microsoft deal, so Nebius raised money at peak valuations. The company plans to use the proceeds to buy more GPU compute (since chips remain scarce) and expand data-center capacity worldwide ^[32].

Other developments in Sep 2025 included major analyst updates. For example, Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its Buy rating on Sept 20 with a $120 price target ^[33] (implying ~+12% upside). BWS Financial (Hamed Khorsand) likewise maintained a Buy and lifted its target from $90 to $130 on Sept 9 after the Microsoft deal ^[34]. These targets exceed the ~$108 price, indicating bullish expectations. Notably, Nebius had recently reported Q2 2025 results (Aug 7): revenue $105.1M (+625% YoY) and core business achieving positive adjusted EBITDA earlier than planned ^[35] ^[36]. The Q2 earnings beat estimates (EPS -$0.38 vs. -$0.41 expected) ^[37] and raised its annualized revenue guidance to $900M–$1.1B ^[38], underscoring its accelerating growth trend.

Expert Analysis & Commentary

Analysts and industry experts are excited but cautious. Reuters noted the Microsoft deal “provides unprecedented clarity on the company’s long-term revenue potential and significantly de-risks its planned capacity buildout,” quoting BWS analyst Hamed Khorsand ^[39]. Zacks Research emphasized that Nebius’s Q2 sales of $105.1M represent “a whopping 625%” growth YOY ^[40], with CEO Volozh saying “fundamental trends in our space… will continue to drive growth for years to come” ^[41]. Zacks also pointed out NBIS is now profitable on an adjusted-EBITDA basis and has ramped up its platform with reliability improvements (e.g. Redundant Slurm clusters, enhanced storage) ^[42], making it a strong contender in AI cloud.

However, some experts warn about valuation. Motley Fool analysts note Nebius’s “lofty” price-to-sales multiple and rising debt (about $1.0B by Q2’25 ^[43]), calling the stock “a bit of a gamble” despite its promise ^[44]. They compare it to CoreWeave (another NVIDIA-backed GPU cloud), observing Nebius’s shares look expensive relative to its sales ^[45]. Indeed, DB forecasts see the AI infrastructure market ballooning from ~$244B in 2025 to $1 trillion by 2031 ^[46] – huge potential – but they caution that much of Nebius’s recent growth is already “priced in” to the stock ^[47]. The Motley Fool concludes that only very risk-tolerant investors might consider NBIS at these levels ^[48].

Nebius executives remain optimistic, however. In its earnings release CEO Volozh wrote: “Nebius is continuing to deliver exceptional results… we more than doubled revenue from the previous quarter, and our core business achieved positive adjusted EBITDA ahead of plan. … We have also said that in addition to our core business we expect to secure significant long-term committed contracts… I’m happy to announce the first of these contracts, and I believe there are more to come.” ^[49] ^[50]. This underscores management’s confidence that the recent Microsoft win is just the beginning of Nebius’s expansion.

Market Sentiment & Investor Perception

Investor sentiment on NBIS is extremely bullish right now. After the Microsoft announcement, media and trading forums lit up. The stock’s 250% YTD surge far outpaces most AI peers, and NBIS has dominated headlines as a “must-watch” AI infrastructure stock ^[51] ^[52]. Retail investors have piled in, and option market trackers observed heavy call buying around $30–$40 strikes (albeit from low base prices) in the spring ^[53] – though those figures were when NBIS traded much lower. By late September, most sentiment indicators show NBIS in a “greed” or even “bubble” territory. For instance, an investment newsletter remarked that the broader AI hype is at an “extreme greed” stage as reflected by NBIS’s rally ^[54] ^[55]. (That piece, and others, note NBIS briefly hit an all-time high ~$98 on Sept 9.)

In summary, the buzz is bullish: many analysts have raised targets (BWS $130, Goldman $120, see above) and the consensus rating is “Buy” ^[56]. Hedge funds have also loaded up – MarketBeat notes institutions like Orbis, Accel, Invesco, etc., took large positions in Q1 2025 ^[57]. However, contrarians point out that the current share price implies near-perfect execution – any hiccup (chip shortages, slower sales, etc.) could trigger profit-taking. In the short term, then, NBIS seems driven by momentum and fear-of-missing-out, but it will need continued good news to justify its rich valuation ^[58].

Financials and Key Metrics

Nebius’s financials reflect explosive growth but also high spending. The Q2 2025 results illustrate this (compared to Q2 2024):

Metric	Q2 2024	Q2 2025
Revenue (USD m)	14.5 ^[59]	105.1 ^[60] (+625% YoY)
Adj. EBITDA (USD m)	–58.1 ^[61]	–21.0 ^[62] (loss)
Debt (USD m)	6.1 ^[63]	~1000 ^[64]
Capital Expend. (USD m)	–	91.5 ^[65]
EPS (USD)	–	–0.38 ^[66]

Table: Nebius financial highlights (Q2 2024 vs Q2 2025). Note massive revenue jump but continuing losses ^[67] ^[68].

Revenue: $105.1 M in Q2’25 (reported Aug 2025), up 625% from $14.5 M a year earlier ^[69] ^[70]. This reflects ramping AI cloud sales and some contribution from growing subsidiaries (TripleTen, etc.).
Profitability: The company remains unprofitable. Q2’25 had an operating loss of ~$111.2 M ^[71]. After one-time investment gains, net income swung positive (reported ~$584 M) ^[72], but that masks the cash burn. On an ongoing basis Nebius still loses money, though its Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $21.0 M in Q2 (versus –$58.1 M in Q2’24) ^[73]. Management says core operations are already positive on an EBITDA basis (ahead of schedule) ^[74] ^[75], expecting full-year 2025 EBITDA to turn positive in late 2025 ^[76].
Expenses & Capex: Operating costs are high due to R&D, server hardware, and expansion. R&D and depreciation soared in Q2’25 (e.g. GPU clusters built), and Nebius invested $91.5 M in Q2 capital expenditures ^[77]. Its SG&A expenses also rose (partly due to stock compensation and global buildout). Management is drilling power hookups and equipment worldwide, so Capex is likely to stay elevated.
Balance Sheet: As of Q2’25 the company had taken on nearly $1 billion of debt (from almost zero in 2024) ^[78]. It also recently raised equity (Jan–Sept 2025) totalling ~$4.2 billion gross ^[79]. Cash reserves have swollen, but so has leverage. Liquidity appears healthy for now, but the capital needs for data centers mean more fundraising could occur.

In summary, Nebius’s financial profile in mid-2025 is high growth, high expense. Revenue is still small in absolute terms (just ~$100M quarter) but climbing rapidly. The burn is large, but mostly strategic (investing in servers). Investors will watch upcoming quarters to see if expenses stabilize and revenues keep zooming up. For now, key ratios look extreme: e.g. NBIS’s trailing Price/Sales ratio is over 100×, reflecting sky-high expectations ^[80].

Forecasts & Price Predictions

Analysts have very mixed one-year price targets for NBIS, reflecting uncertainty. According to an aggregate (Fintel), the average 12-month price target is about $109.55 ^[81]. The low-end target is ~$77.8, high-end ~$136.5 ^[82]. Individual analysts vary: BWS Financial’s $130 and Goldman’s $120 (as noted above) sit at the high end, while some earlier targets (pre-deal) were in the $30–80 range.

Despite these bullish targets, caveats abound. Many analysts stress that much of Nebius’s growth and the Microsoft deal seem “priced in.” For example, Zacks notes that after the Nasdaq listing resumed, NBIS’s stock price “is expensive compared to CoreWeave,” given its revenue ^[83]. Moreover, Motley Fool’s Arkadi Volozh (co-author) warns readers that Nebius’s valuation is lofty and that it’s a stock for high-risk investors ^[84]. As such, some market-watchers say it may be prudent to wait for a pullback.

That said, other prognoses remain very optimistic. Nebius has projected its end-of-2025 annualized run-rate could be $900M–$1.1B ^[85]. If AI demand truly explodes (the entire market could hit $1T by 2031 ^[86]), Nebius could become a major player. For instance, at a hypothetical $500M revenue run-rate, a $25B market cap would be only 50× sales (still high, but lower than today’s 100×+). So some analysts implicitly assume continued stunning growth to justify their targets in the $100s per share.

Summary of Price Targets: BWS/Khorsand: $130 ^[87]; Goldman Sachs: $120 ^[88]; Arete Rsrch: $84 (June’25) ^[89]; Northland: $47 (May’25) ^[90]. Consensus: “Buy” rating, avg. target ~$91 ^[91]. (NB: consensus was collected before late Sept jump.)

Competitors & Industry Context

Nebius sits in the fast-evolving AI infrastructure niche. Its nearest peer is CoreWeave Inc. (CRWD/CRWV), another pure-play GPU cloud targeting AI labs. Both claim to be “NVIDIA alternatives” to AWS/GCP/Azure for high-end AI workloads. In a May 2025 analysis, Zacks noted Nebius’s Q1 revenue was up 385% YoY ^[92], and highlighted Nebius’s growing global footprint and NVIDIA partnership (Nvidia is a Nebius investor and tech supplier) ^[93]. CoreWeave, by contrast, already runs >33 data centers (~10× more GPUs) and reported $981M in Q1 revenue (up 420% YoY) ^[94]. In the last month, CRWV stock actually skyrocketed more (~+190%) than NBIS’s +67% ^[95], reflecting CoreWeave’s even larger scale.

Other players: traditional cloud giants (Amazon, Microsoft Azure, Google) dominate overall AI spending but are less transparent as “infrastructure companies.” Snowflake, Databricks, and emerging firms like Lumen or Equinix are tangentially related but not direct GPU-cloud peers. The key point is that AI spending is forecast to surge – IDC expects global AI infrastructure spend over $200B by 2028 ^[96]. Nebius aims to carve out a niche in that space. Its advantages: intimate NVIDIA ties (access to latest GPUs), European and US data-center presence (appealing to non-China customers), and an all-in-one AI cloud stack.

However, competition is fierce. In addition to CoreWeave, other startups (like Lambda Labs or Vast.ai) and even hyperscalers themselves continue to scale out GPU fleets. If major cloud providers accelerate their own GPU services, or if chip shortages continue, Nebius could face headwinds. Also, customer concentration is a risk – beyond Microsoft, Nebius needs more deals to diversify. So far, its strategy is to lock in a few huge contracts (like Microsoft’s) and then presumably solicit similar deals (Google, Meta, big AI labs) ^[97].

Outlook

Nebius (NBIS) is very much a “story stock” right now. Its stock price reflects big bets on the AI boom and on Nebius’s ability to capture a share of that market. The Microsoft deal has raised its profile and set high expectations. For casual investors, the key takeaways are: Nebius is showing phenomenal growth (low base), with support from NVIDIA and a solid tech platform ^[98] ^[99]. But it is also unprofitable and heavily investing its cash. Any delay or problem (like slower ramp-up or rising interest rates hurting tech stocks) could trigger sharp corrections.

In short, the potential rewards are huge, but so are the risks. Analysts quoted in our sources emphasize this balance – one sees “unprecedented clarity” from the Microsoft deal ^[100], while another warns of a “bubble” valuation ^[101]. The coming quarters will test whether Nebius can turn its momentum into sustainable profits. Until then, NBIS remains a high-octane stock for those betting on the future of AI infrastructure.

Sources: Company filings and press releases ^[102] ^[103] ^[104]; Reuters and Nasdaq news ^[105] ^[106] ^[107]; analyst reports and commentaries ^[108] ^[109] ^[110]; stock price data ^[111] ^[112]. Charts and tables above summarize key data from these sources.