Space Exploration Technologies Corp. shares rose 1.55% on Monday to $143.69. The close valued SpaceX at roughly $1.89 trillion. The stock eased to $143.53 at 17:47:35 EDT after hours.
Category hubSpace
Follow the latest TechStock² reporting, investor analysis and material developments for Space in one continuously updated topic hub.
Regular-session closes, plus the latest after-hours trade; U.S. dollars
· Source: Yahoo Finance
Revenue and GAAP operating income, billions of dollars
Quarter ended June 30, 2026 · Source: SpaceX earnings release filed with the SEC
Capital spending totaled $28.48 billion
Six months ended June 30, 2026 · Source: SpaceX Form 10-Q
Cash plus marketable securities against debt and finance leases
As of June 30, 2026 · Source: SpaceX Form 10-Q
Vendor aggregate and valuation fields as of August 31, 2026, 17:47:35 EDT · Source: Yahoo Finance
| Segment | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Connectivity | $4.291B | +66% |
| AI | $2.561B | +247% |
| Space | $0.962B | +29% |
| Total | $7.814B | +92% |
| AI capex | $15.828B |
| Connectivity capex | $1.367B |
| Space capex | $1.174B |
| Total | $18.369B |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $3.538B |
| Operating loss | −$143M |
| Net loss | −$541M |
| EPS | −$0.09 |
| Cash and securities | $100B |
| Backlog | $47.5B |
| IPO net proceeds | $85.7B |
| Annualized Q2 sales multiple | ≈59.6× |
Connectivity generated $1.66B of operating income, while AI revenue surged and adjusted EBITDA turned positive. The valuation still assumes that Starlink cash flow can fund Starship and AI buildout without exhausting the $100B liquidity cushion.
Sources: SpaceX Q2 2026 results; Yahoo Finance; MarketWatch. Rounded figures. Informational only, not investment advice.
Orbital capability is the bridge between experimental hardware and scalable capacity.
Flight 14 combines the first orbital trajectory, a viable payload and a possible Ship 41 tower catch. Success would lower three uncertainties at once: performance, reuse and deployment capacity.
| Test | Flight 13 result | Flight 14 objective | Financial signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trajectory | Suborbital | First orbital flight | Broadens commercial launch utility |
| Payload | Upgraded Starlink deployment | Viable orbital payload | Links vehicle to revenue capacity |
| Ship recovery | Soft splashdown; later recovered | Possible tower catch | Tests rapid reuse |
| Booster | Landing-burn failure | V3 Booster 21 | Execution risk remains visible |
Booster 21 proof campaign
Structural and tank validation.
33-engine static fire
Full booster propulsion test.
Ship 41 campaign
Complete testing and pad work.
Stack + notices + FAA
No firm launch date confirmed.
At about 59 times annualized Q2 revenue, the market assumes Starship becomes more than a development program. Flight 14 can reduce that execution discount by proving orbit, payload delivery and recoverability in one mission.
What changes the view: Ship 41 static fire, vehicle stacking, FAA operational approval and SpaceX launch confirmation.
| Segment | Revenue | Operating income | Capex |
|---|---|---|---|
| Space | $0.96B | −$0.54B | $1.17B |
| Connectivity | $4.29B | $1.66B | $1.37B |
| AI | $2.56B | −$1.26B | $15.83B |
| Total | $7.81B | −$0.14B | $18.37B |
Connectivity generated the operating profit. AI consumed 86% of quarterly capital spending.
Cash of $93.52B covers roughly 5.1 quarters at the Q2 capex pace.
Mean analyst target: $219.22 from 35 analysts, or 54.9% above Friday's close. The target range is unusually wide at $117–$450.
Main risks: AI monetization, Starship execution, regulatory approvals, debt costs and post-IPO share supply.
Expansion scale, operating momentum and public-market valuation
The commitment is multi-year and is not equivalent to funded spending today.
| Measure | Current / latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Share performance | $141.50 | +0.45% Friday |
| Vs. $135 IPO price | +4.8% | Modest listing premium |
| Vs. $225.64 high | −37.3% | Execution discount |
| Q2 adjusted EBITDA | $3.5B | +191% YoY |
| Q2 operating loss | −$143M | Improved from −$970M |
| Q2 net loss | −$541M | Improved from −$1.01B |
| Friday volume | 55.02M | 54% of recent average |
| Morgan Stanley target | $300 / Overweight | Young coverage set |
| Reference | Price | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| 52-week high · June 16 | $225.64 | −38.1% |
| Average analyst target | $220.20 | +57.7% |
| Aug. 26 close | $139.63 | Base |
| IPO price · June | $135.00 | +3.4% |
| 52-week low · Aug. 3 | $104.83 | +33.2% |
Louisiana expands Starship launch capacity for three revenue engines: external launch services, Starlink deployment and orbital AI infrastructure. The $100 billion headline equals all June liquidity and 3.5 times first-half capex.
Starship cadenceStarlink capacityAI satellitesNo annual spending schedule, financing plan or return target was disclosed. Starship reusability, permits, wetland mitigation and launch demand must advance before the campus can earn a return.
engineeringregulationcash burnenvironment| Checkpoint | Timing | What investors need |
|---|---|---|
| Phased budget | Not disclosed | Annual cash use, debt and partner funding |
| Permits and wetlands plan | Pre-construction | Schedule certainty and mitigation cost |
| Construction start | Expected 2027 | Evidence the plan is funded and active |
| Starship scale-up | Ongoing | Reliability, reusability and lower launch cost |
| First Louisiana launch | Targeted 2029 | Capacity begins supporting revenue channels |
The planned commitment equals 5.3% of market value, 4.3 times trailing revenue and 5.4 quarters of the latest capital-spending pace.
| Site | 125,000 acres |
| Launch complexes | 5 |
| Launch pads | 10 |
| Direct jobs | 3,000 |
| Average salary | $92,600 |
| Indirect jobs | 8,100 |
| Direct local payments | >$820M |
More Starship slots can expand satellite deployment and payload revenue. Cash flow depends on launch reliability, customer demand and the final spending schedule.
| Q2 revenue | $7.81B |
| Revenue growth | 92% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $3.54B |
| Net loss | $541M |
| Q2 capex | $18.37B |
| Backlog | $47.5B |
| Average target | $213.50 |
| Low target | $75 |
| High target | $450 |
| Forward P/E | 106.3× |
Sources: Louisiana Economic Development, Reuters, SpaceX's August 4 SEC filing, StockAnalysis and S&P Global analyst data. Calculations use the August 25 close and approximately 13.57 billion shares. Figures may not sum because of rounding.
A tiny presidential holding creates a large policy-optics question. Federal launch approvals and contract cadence remain the real earnings channel.
Trump's reported June 23 SpaceX purchase range.
Maximum disclosed value as a share of SpaceX's $1.83 trillion market capitalisation. The optics outweigh the economics.
Connectivity generated $1.656 billion of operating profit. Space lost $542 million; AI lost $1.257 billion. Quarter ended June 30, 2026.
Fresh catalyst: A disclosure released August 22 shows Trump bought SpaceX shares on June 23. The White House says independent institutions direct the portfolio.
Federal contractorLaunch approvalsCommercial-launch policyGovernance opticsThe administration last week ordered steps to increase U.S. commercial launches. The measurable investor channel is approval speed and contract flow, not the small holding.
| Firm | Rating | Target | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Buy | $300 | Aug. 20 |
| DZ Bank | Sell | n/a | Aug. 20 |
| William Blair | Buy | n/a | Aug. 20 |
| Clear Street | Buy | $217 | Aug. 18 |
35-analyst consensus: Buy. Average target: $213.50. Range: $75-$450. Analyst data checked August 25, 2026.
| Signal | What to watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Policy | Launch licensing and federal contract cadence | Could turn political attention into revenue |
| Cash intensity | AI capex after $15.83B in Q2 | Free-cash-flow risk dominates valuation |
| Profit mix | Connectivity margin durability | It currently funds losses elsewhere |
| Governance | Official disclosures and procurement safeguards | Optics can widen the risk premium |
| Eligible shares | 319.0M |
| Aug. 20 volume | 119.0M |
| Aug. 21 volume | 78.1M |
| Two-day move | -1.92% |
| Segment | Revenue | YoY | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connectivity | $4.29B | +66% | 54.9% |
| AI | $2.56B | +247% | 32.8% |
| Space | $0.96B | +29% | 12.3% |
| Segment | Operating result | Capex |
|---|---|---|
| Connectivity | +$1.66B | $1.37B |
| Space | -$0.54B | $1.17B |
| AI | -$1.26B | $15.83B |
| Group | -$0.14B | $18.37B |
| Morgan Stanley / Buy | $300 |
| Clear Street / Buy | $217 |
| DZ Bank / Sell | n/a |
Sources: SpaceX SEC Form 10-Q and Q2 earnings release; SEC IPO filing; MarketWatch; S&P Global Market Intelligence and TipRanks via StockAnalysis. Calculations are preliminary and may differ due to rounding.
The $200 bull-bear gap is larger than SPCX’s entire trading range since its June listing.
The next share unlock is large enough to change trading. Revenue growth is fast enough to keep buyers interested. The tape decides which force wins.
Closing prices in U.S. dollars. The stock remains above the IPO price but has slipped 4.5% since Monday.
Eligible does not mean sold. It does show the size of the overhang.
Revenue and adjusted EBITDA accelerated. Capital spending still ran at 2.4 times revenue.
| Measure | Q2 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.81B | +92% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $3.50B | +191% |
| Net loss | $541M | Improved $467M |
| Capital spending | $18.4B | 2.4× revenue |
| AI revenue | $2.56B | +247.5% |
| Connectivity revenue | $4.29B | +65.8% |
Latest published calls through August 18. Upside is measured from $139.65.
| Firm | Call | Target | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Buy | $300 | +114.8% |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | $235 | +68.3% |
| Clear Street | Buy | $217 | +55.4% |
| UBS | Buy | $210 | +50.4% |
| Phillip Securities | Sell | $75 | -46.3% |
| View | Rating | Target | Vs. $142.36 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Securities | Sell | $75 | -47% |
| 32-analyst average | 24B / 6H / 2S | $228.59 | +61% |
| Morgan Stanley | Buy | $300 | +111% |
| Raymond James | Buy | $800 | +462% |
