STARBASE, Texas, August 22, 2026, 6:39 a.m. CDT —
- SpaceX shares closed Friday at $136.97, up 2.22%, but lost 2.16% for the week.
- The stock remains just 1.46% above its $135 June IPO price.
- About 319 million shares became eligible for sale on August 20; eligibility does not prove selling.
- Two Starlink windows on August 25 precede a Falcon Heavy target on August 30.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. NASDAQ:SPCX enters the week near its IPO price, despite a fast launch tempo and surging quarterly sales. Friday’s rebound recovered only part of Thursday’s 4.05% drop. The market is closed Saturday.
The near-term contest is clear. Three planned launch windows can show operating discipline, while a larger tradable float tests demand. The shares ended 2.16% below their August 14 close of $140.
Friday’s price implies a preliminary equity value near $1.86 trillion. That estimate uses 13.18 billion shares disclosed on July 28 plus 391 million shares issued with the Cursor acquisition. It excludes later share changes, options and unvested awards. On the same basis, the weekly decline erased about $41.1 billion of equity value.
| Stock comparison | Reference | SPCX gap |
|---|---|---|
| Friday close | $136.97 | +2.22% on the day |
| Prior Friday close | $140.00 | -2.16% |
| IPO price | $135.00 | +1.46% |
| First trade | $150.00 | -8.69% |
| Record high | $225.64 | -39.30% |
| Record low | $104.83 | +30.66% |
| Friday volume | 78.81 million | — |
Supply remains the immediate market risk. Roughly 319 million shares became eligible for sale on Thursday, Reuters reported, after about 912 million on August 6. Eligible shares are not confirmed sales. More lockup releases are scheduled through mid-2027.
Starship timing adds a second test. Ship 41 completed a six-engine, 60-second static fire Friday, but SpaceX has not dated Flight 14. Elon Musk said a tower catch would come “in a few months.” That comment concerns a catch attempt, not necessarily the next launch. SpaceX; Musk
Execution continues elsewhere. An early Saturday Falcon 9 mission deployed a Starlink batch from Vandenberg. SpaceX called it its 100th Falcon launch of 2026. The booster also landed successfully.
| Next launch catalyst | Primary window | Backup or status |
|---|---|---|
| Starlink 10-49, Florida | August 25, 05:49–10:32 UTC | August 26, 08:52–13:35 UTC |
| Starlink 15-22, California | August 25, 09:42–14:25 UTC | August 26, 09:27–14:10 UTC |
| NASA Roman, Falcon Heavy | No earlier than August 30, 11:26 UTC | Flight readiness review complete |
The calendar carries little scheduled corporate news beyond those missions. No earnings release, investor event or additional lockup tranche was identified for August 24–28. NASA’s Roman launch is the nearest marquee event, but it falls on Sunday and remains weather-dependent.
SpaceX’s latest quarter explains why launch reliability matters. Revenue almost doubled to $7.81 billion. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $3.54 billion, while the net loss narrowed to $541 million. Capital spending reached $18.37 billion.
| Q2 segment | Revenue | Year-on-year | Operating result | Adjusted EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Space | $0.96 billion | +29.0% | -$0.54 billion | -$0.21 billion |
| Connectivity | $4.29 billion | +65.8% | +$1.66 billion | +$2.60 billion |
| AI | $2.56 billion | +247.5% | -$1.26 billion | +$1.15 billion |
Connectivity produced most operating profit and 55% of sales. That cushions losses in Space and AI. Yet Starlink’s subscriber count roughly doubled while average revenue per user fell 22%, making mix and margins as important as customer growth.
| Analyst recommendation | Count | Share of 41 ratings |
|---|---|---|
| Strong buy | 2 | 4.9% |
| Buy | 25 | 61.0% |
| Hold | 8 | 19.5% |
| Sell | 6 | 14.6% |
| Average target | $220.20 | 60.8% above Friday’s close |
The recommendation split is bullish, but the range is unusually wide. Tracked targets span $75 to $800. That dispersion reflects uncertain values for Starlink, launch services, Starship and the AI business.
Risks: Launch delays, Starship setbacks, lower Starlink pricing, heavy capital needs and further share releases could outweigh successful missions. Analyst targets are estimates, not guarantees.
Investors will watch whether Tuesday’s two launch windows hold. Just as important is how SPCX absorbs the newly eligible supply. This week, operational speed and market liquidity meet.
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