STARBASE, Texas, August 17, 2026, 04:05 CDT — US cash equities will begin trading at 09:30 EDT. Premarket activity has started.
- SpaceX gained 1.54% to $142.15 during premarket trading on Monday.
- Roughly 320 million restricted shares will be eligible for transfer starting August 20.
- The block represents 3.23 times the recent average daily volume.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) gained 1.54%, reaching $142.15 ahead of Monday’s session. The stock advanced just three days prior to when approximately 320 million restricted shares will become eligible for transfer.
The immediate focus is on the unlock. Based on the premarket price, the block represents a notional value of $45.49 billion. That is equal to 3.23 times SpaceX’s average daily volume over the recent period, which is 99.02 million shares.
| SPCX price marker | Verified reading | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Monday premarket | $142.15 | Gained 1.54% |
| Friday close | $140.00 | Rose 3.7% from $135 IPO price |
| Friday range | $135.50 to $144.02 | Ended 2.8% under intraday high |
| Post-IPO high | $225.64 | Premarket trades 37.0% below that level |
| Post-IPO low | $104.83 | Premarket trades 35.6% above that level |
Research analyst Ed Elson anticipates “a lot of selling pressure” with early investors gaining access to liquidity. He noted that eligible shares are not required to be sold. The August 20 tranche comes after a larger release that followed SpaceX’s first public earnings report. Business Insider
The prospectus permits an additional 7% of covered shares to be released 70 days following the issuance of the offering document. Subsequent 7% tranches are scheduled for release at 90, 105, 120, and 135 days. This timetable ensures that supply remains a regular factor into October.
| August 20 supply test | Input | Preliminary result |
|---|---|---|
| Shares eligible for transfer | 320 million | May qualify, selling not verified |
| Implied value | 320 million × $142.15 | $45.49 billion |
| Trading volume ratio | 320 million ÷ 99.02 million | 3.23 average daily volume |
| IPO proceeds benchmark | $45.49 billion ÷ $75.0 billion | 60.7% of IPO total proceeds |
The calculation does not project $45.49 billion in sales. It assesses the block in relation to the market’s typical capacity. Even limited involvement could increase volume and expand the stock’s daily range.
SpaceX earnings act as a key offset. Revenue for the second quarter jumped 92% to $7.81 billion. The company posted a loss of nine cents per share, outperforming the 21-cent per share loss expected by analysts polled by Google Finance.
| Q2 measure | Actual | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.81 billion | $6.82 billion estimate; topping by 14.5% |
| Loss per share | $0.09 | $0.21 estimate; loss 57.1% smaller |
| AI infrastructure spending | $15.8 billion | $7.7 billion in Q1; increase of 105.2% |
| Total capital expenditure | $18.37 billion | 235% of revenue for the quarter |
The division in spending accounts for the broad analyst estimates. AI infrastructure accounted for 86% of the total capital expenditure in the quarter. Investors face the decision of whether this investment generates sustained compute income or prolongs negative free cash flow.
| Analyst | Date | Recommendation | Price target | Return from $142.15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glenn Thum, Phillip Securities | August 17 | Sell | $75 | -47.2% |
| Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley | August 13 | Buy | $300 | +111.0% |
| Brian Dobson, Clear Street | August 11 | Buy | $217 | +52.7% |
| Alexander Potter, Piper Sandler | August 5 | Hold | $140 | -1.5% |
The range from $75 to $300 is a fourfold difference. One side sees analysts factoring in the capital requirements and potential increase in supply. On the other end, significant value is attributed to Starlink, launch services and artificial intelligence.
Risks: Transfer eligibility might result in minimal share-selling, as seen with the initial unlock. A more robust cash session could lift shares closer to Friday’s $144.02 peak. On the other hand, significant insider selling or a further rise in AI-related spending could send the stock below its $135 IPO level.
The key indicator on Monday is if the premarket increase holds after the opening auction. On Thursday, trading volume will indicate the extent of the 320 million-share block that enters the market.
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