Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. dropped 2.10% to $134.10 in premarket trade on Monday, giving up the majority of Friday’s 2.22% gain and pulling the stock under its IPO level of $135. The price was registered at 07:27 EDT.
| Q2 2026 measure | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.8B | +92% YoY |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $3.5B | +191% YoY |
| Net loss | $541M | narrowed |
| Capital expenditure | $18.4B | 2.4× revenue |
| AI capex | $15.8B | 86% of capex |
| Eligible shares | 319.0M |
| Aug. 20 volume | 119.0M |
| Aug. 21 volume | 78.1M |
| Two-day move | -1.92% |
| Segment | Revenue | YoY | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connectivity | $4.29B | +66% | 54.9% |
| AI | $2.56B | +247% | 32.8% |
| Space | $0.96B | +29% | 12.3% |
| Segment | Operating result | Capex |
|---|---|---|
| Connectivity | +$1.66B | $1.37B |
| Space | -$0.54B | $1.17B |
| AI | -$1.26B | $15.83B |
| Group | -$0.14B | $18.37B |
| Morgan Stanley / Buy | $300 |
| Clear Street / Buy | $217 |
| DZ Bank / Sell | n/a |
Sources: SpaceX SEC Form 10-Q and Q2 earnings release; SEC IPO filing; MarketWatch; S&P Global Market Intelligence and TipRanks via StockAnalysis. Calculations are preliminary and may differ due to rounding.
Market data captured August 21, 2026, 08:01:21 EDT / 14:01:21 CEST. Nasdaq cash market: pre-open. Price and volume refer to the August 20 close.
AI infrastructure used $15.8bn, or 86% of quarterly capital expenditure.
At $134, the eligible tranche is worth about $42.7bn. Eligibility does not mean immediate sale.
| Analyst | View | Target | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cantor | Overweight | $246 | 83.6% |
| UBS | Buy | $210 | 56.7% |
| Mizuho | Outperform | $200 | 49.3% |
| BofA | Buy | $235 | 75.4% |
| Near-term pressure | Longer-term support |
|---|---|
| Starship upper-stage catch delayed by months | U.S. seeks 1,000 annual launches by 2030 |
| 319m shares newly eligible | Q2 revenue up 92% |
| Close 40.6% below 52-week high | $14.1bn cloud-services contracts |
Volume above the 120.2m-share average without a deeper price break would show that buyers are absorbing the unlock. Renewed selling toward the $104.83 low would put capital spending and execution back in control of the valuation.
Sources: Yahoo Finance most-active screen, SpaceX August 4 current report, MarketWatch, Reuters, Wall Street Journal and cited analyst actions. Dollar figures are U.S. dollars.
The $200 bull-bear gap is larger than SPCX’s entire trading range since its June listing.
The next share unlock is large enough to change trading. Revenue growth is fast enough to keep buyers interested. The tape decides which force wins.
Closing prices in U.S. dollars. The stock remains above the IPO price but has slipped 4.5% since Monday.
Eligible does not mean sold. It does show the size of the overhang.
Revenue and adjusted EBITDA accelerated. Capital spending still ran at 2.4 times revenue.
| Measure | Q2 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.81B | +92% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $3.50B | +191% |
| Net loss | $541M | Improved $467M |
| Capital spending | $18.4B | 2.4× revenue |
| AI revenue | $2.56B | +247.5% |
| Connectivity revenue | $4.29B | +65.8% |
Latest published calls through August 18. Upside is measured from $139.65.
| Firm | Call | Target | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Buy | $300 | +114.8% |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | $235 | +68.3% |
| Clear Street | Buy | $217 | +55.4% |
| UBS | Buy | $210 | +50.4% |
| Phillip Securities | Sell | $75 | -46.3% |
