NEW YORK, August 3, 2026, 09:27 EDT — U.S. premarket
- The stock declined approximately 1.5%, trading near $106.7 ahead of the market open.
- Starlink’s projected operating profit for the quarter stands at $1.42 billion, accounting for 13.9% of anticipated AI capital expenditure.
- Tuesday will see results released. As of Thursday, as many as 911.5 million restricted shares can be sold.
Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. NASDAQ:SPCX slipped roughly 1.5% in premarket trading on Monday. The stock was last seen around $106.7 following a 3.4% decline in the previous session.
The main concern for earnings is not the overall growth. Analysts anticipate Starlink will post an operating profit of $1.42 billion. Projected spending on AI capital investments is $10.2 billion.
That means Starlink accounts for only 13.9% of AI capital spending, down from 15.4% in the previous quarter. AI expenditures are increasing at a pace that surpasses the earnings growth of SpaceX’s main profit source.
This serves as a proxy for internal funding rather than a cash-flow metric. It contrasts the operating profit of the Connectivity segment with expenditure on AI capital.
The market has already significantly reduced the valuation:
| Reference | Share price | Gap to Monday premarket |
|---|---|---|
| Monday premarket | About $106.7 | — |
| Friday close | $108.37 | -1.5% |
| June IPO price | $135.00 | -21.0% |
| June intraday peak | $225.64 | -52.7% |
The initial public offering set the price at $135 per share for 555.6 million shares. Underwriters were granted an option to purchase an additional 83.3 million shares.
SpaceX is set to release its second-quarter results following the market close on Tuesday. The company will start its management webcast at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
The initial consensus suggests revenue will reach $6.9 billion. Anticipated increases in AI and Space investment are likely to balance out profit in the Connectivity segment.
| $ billions, except percentages | Q1 reported | Q2 forecast | Change from previous quarter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | 4.694 | 6.930 | +47.6% |
| Connectivity revenue | 3.257 | 3.820 | +17.3% |
| Connectivity operating profit | 1.188 | 1.420 | +19.5% |
| AI revenue | 0.818 | 2.330 | +184.8% |
| AI capital spending | 7.723 | 10.200 | +32.1% |
| Space revenue | 0.619 | 0.871 | +40.8% |
Figures for Q1 connectivity were sourced from SpaceX’s prospectus, while Q2 numbers are preliminary and based on analyst estimates.
Analysts project a companywide loss before interest and taxes amounting to $1.55 billion. The projection underscores that accelerating sales growth on its own may not resolve doubts over valuation.
Starlink reported 10.3 million subscribers at the close of March, nearly doubling its total from a year earlier. Average revenue per user, however, declined by almost 25%.
“Starlink is delivering excellent results, however, a $30 billion annualized AI capital expenditure initiative cannot be sustained by Starlink alone,” GraniteShares CEO Will Rhind said. Reuters
The custom funding measure declines further, even as Starlink margin shows a slight improvement:
| Internal-funding measure | Q1 actual | Q2 estimate | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connectivity operating margin | 36.5% | 37.2% | Rises |
| Connectivity profit ÷ AI capex | 15.4% | 13.9% | Declines |
| AI capex ÷ Connectivity profit | 6.5 times | 7.2 times | Declines |
AI revenue may approach three times the level seen in the initial quarter. SpaceX holds computing contracts with Anthropic, Reflection AI, and Google’s Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL division. After full scaling, these agreements could surpass $25 billion in annualized value.
The Space division creates further requirements for capital. Analysts project quarterly revenue at $871 million, with an operating loss of $773 million. As a result, Starship’s advancement is vital for reducing deployment expenses moving forward.
The earnings response could also be impacted by fresh share supply. Up to 911.5 million shares will be eligible on Thursday, compared to the approximately 640 million shares currently trading on the public market. Eligibility, however, does not indicate all holders plan to sell.
Risks move in both directions. Quicker compute-contract income or reduced expenses may boost coverage. Softer Starlink pricing, greater AI spending, or higher unlock sales could worsen the downturn.
Tuesday could bring the sharpest upside surprise, and it may not lie in a revenue outperformance. Investors are looking for confirmation that Starlink’s profit coverage is no longer contracting.
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