NEW YORK, July 27, 2026, 07:05 EDT — U.S. premarket
- SpaceX closed at $115.07 on Friday, marking a 7.2% decline for the week.
- An initial estimate indicates approximately $200 billion in AI-related value remains above Morgan Stanley’s NYSE:MS $100 benchmark.
- The unlock scheduled for August 6 may make available 911.5 million shares, valued at around $105 billion based on Friday’s market close.
Space Exploration Technologies NASDAQ:SPCX would have to drop by 13.1% to hit Morgan Stanley’s NYSE:MS $100 per-share valuation without factoring in AI. However, on Friday, the stock price reflected an implied $200 billion premium attributed to artificial intelligence.
The premium is now set for a supply test, as the August 6 eligible block amounts to about 141% of SpaceX’s existing public float.
The U.S. cash market remained shut. SpaceX was last quoted at $115.15 at 6:37 a.m. EDT, up 0.1%.
The stock fell 7.2% last week, declining from $123.99 to $115.07. Shares are now trading 14.8% lower than the IPO price and 49.0% below the intraday high reached in June.
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas has set a $300 price target for SpaceX, with AI representing over half of that estimate. “Many ascribe zero or even negative value for AI,” Jonas stated. Forbes
A straightforward proportional calculation applies Friday’s $1.53 trillion market capitalization. The $15.07 premium over the $100 level equates to roughly $200 billion. This is an initial estimate made by this article, not a number from Morgan Stanley.
The examples listed contrast Friday’s closing price with the two related valuation claims. Returns are measured from $115.07.
| Reference point | Share price | Move from Friday | Valuation signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday closing | $115.07 | — | Suggests an AI-driven premium around $200 billion |
| Morgan Stanley non-AI estimate | $100 | -13.1% | Nearly all worth attributed to space and connectivity |
| Forecast for June 2027 | $167 | +45.1% | Applies a 24% typical IPO gain |
| Morgan Stanley goal | $300 | +160.7% | AI counts for over half of projected value |
Morgan Stanley’s target implies a far higher AI valuation. Exceeding $150 per share would correspond to approximately $2 trillion on the existing equity base, nearly tenfold over the current implied value for the AI segment.
SpaceX’s IPO presentation provides insight into the valuation discount. The initial 2025 adjusted EBITDA for its AI segment stood at a negative $1.2 billion. The connectivity business brought in $7.2 billion, while revenue from space totaled $700 million. These numbers are unaudited, non-GAAP, and may be updated.
The Motley Fool released a forecast on Monday offering a different perspective. The analysis uses a 24% average first-year return based on 10 major U.S. listings, with individual performances spanning from a loss of 76% to a gain of 284%, narrowing the usefulness of the average as a guide.
Reuters identified a more cautious base rate. Analysis of 50 IPOs showed that those initially falling below their offer price eventually saw a median gain of 61%. By contrast, offerings that maintained their offer price have climbed 112% since launch.
Operational results over the weekend were mixed. Starship launched 20 advanced test satellites and performed a better atmospheric re-entry. However, five booster engines did not reignite, resulting in a rougher splashdown than intended.
The key price level to watch this week is the record low of $110.85. Next week brings the main drivers: quarterly earnings are set for August 4, with the initial lockup expiry on August 6.
Based on Friday’s closing price, the qualifying shares have a gross value of about $104.9 billion. This represents 52% of the projected AI premium. Being eligible does not indicate that holders intend to sell.
Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, is maintaining a cautious outlook. “We won’t overweight it because they do have the lockup coming,” he said. Reuters
Risks: The $100 valuation comes from a sum-of-parts model by one bank and should not be seen as a minimum. Insiders might retain their holdings, but any shifts in earnings or launch milestones could rapidly alter projections for both AI and the main business.
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