NEW YORK, July 21, 2026, 05:07 EDT — SpaceX stock comes under pressure as a $109 billion lock-up period expires, following a seven-day losing streak.
- SpaceX ended Monday at $119.85, marking a seven-session decline of 21.2%.
- The Aug. 4 report suggests that 911.5 million shares may become eligible for lock-up on Aug. 6.
- SpaceX plans to conduct the next Starship flight test on Thursday, July 23.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. NASDAQ:SPCX encounters a clear supply challenge. Results from Aug. 4 open the door for the initial employee and early-investor release on Aug. 6. Nasdaq’s main session had ended, with premarket trading ongoing.
Reuters calculates that 911.5 million shares may be available for sale. At Monday’s closing price, this batch is valued near $109.2 billion. The amount is 143% of the IPO shares outstanding, greenshoe included.
This is significant as the stock is undergoing a sharp adjustment. SpaceX dropped 3.3% on Monday, marking its seventh consecutive decline. Last week, the shares fell 14.7% and are now 11.2% under their IPO price.
The stock fell 21.2% over seven consecutive sessions. It is currently down 46.9% from its post-IPO intraday peak of $225.64.
SpaceX issued 555.6 million shares in its primary offering, with underwriters subsequently buying an additional 83.3 million shares via the greenshoe option. The figures in the table reflect Monday’s closing price.
| Supply measure | Shares | Value at $119.85 | Versus IPO supply |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shares in IPO, with greenshoe | 638.9 million | $76.6 billion | 100% |
| Shares allowed in initial lock-up release | 911.5 million | $109.2 billion | 143% |
| Total possible eligible shares following release | 1.550 billion | $185.8 billion | 243% |
Initial estimates. Being eligible does not guarantee all holders will sell.
The August 6 timeline is derived from two pieces of information. SpaceX releases results following the close of trade on Tuesday, August 4. SEC regulations allow transfers on the second full trading day following that.
The lock-up allows a further 10% release once a price condition is met. SpaceX needs to trade at no less than 30% above $135 for five of ten consecutive sessions. This equates to $175.50, or 46.4% over Monday’s close.
Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, highlighted that risk last week. “We won’t overweight it because they do have the lockup coming,” he stated. Reuters
Space sector shares have moved in opposite directions in recent weeks. Viasat, Inc. NASDAQ:VSAT advanced 8.4% and Iridium Communications Inc. NASDAQ:IRDM climbed 4.1%. Meanwhile, AST SpaceMobile, Inc. NASDAQ:ASTS dropped 29% and Rocket Lab USA, Inc. NASDAQ:RKLB slid 39%.
The combined valuation of those four companies is approximately $71.2 billion. SpaceX’s initial eligible block surpasses that by 53%.
Demand could still be the initial mover. SpaceX schedules Starship Flight 13 for Thursday, July 23, with a 90-minute launch window starting at 5:45 p.m. Central Time. The mission aims to deliver 20 Starlink satellites.
The previous Thursday, an attempt was aborted when the engines did not ignite, preventing liftoff. On Monday, a Falcon 9 launch was also called off. These interruptions maintained a focus on performance.
Barron’s pointed to disclosed Pentagon computing discussions as a potential trigger. Reuters reported ongoing negotiations rather than a finalized contract. No revenue effects have been verified so far.
The valuation is still debated. Analysts led by Nicolas Owens at Morningstar, Inc. NASDAQ:MORN set fair value at $63, describing the calculation as “the result of mathematics more than skepticism.” Shares closed Monday at a level 90% above that figure. Morningstar, Inc.
Risks: Eligible holders have the option to keep their shares. Robust earnings, a successful flight, or securing a defense contract might boost interest. Conversely, further delays or disappointing results may accelerate the drop.
Investors are watching three dates: July 23, Aug. 4, and Aug. 6. The final date impacts the number of shares available. That could outweigh any attention from a launch-day announcement.
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