SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) moves forward with Starlink launches, yet shares drop ahead of results

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) moves forward with Starlink launches, yet shares drop ahead of results

NEW YORK, August 1, 2026, 10:05 EDT

  • U.S. markets remain shut on Saturday. SpaceX finished Friday at $108.37, a decline of 3.4%.
  • Of this year’s 89 Falcon 9 launches, 69 were dedicated to Starlink missions.
  • Second-quarter earnings will be reported on Tuesday following the market close. Analysts expect preliminary revenue to reach approximately $6.9 billion.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp launched 24 additional Starlink satellites into orbit on Friday. However, the company’s stock declined, ending the session down 3.4% at $108.37, close to its lowest point since the IPO.

Stock chart for NASDAQ:SPCX

The gap sends a direct signal to investors. Delivering Falcon 9 launches alone is insufficient now. SpaceX is expected to demonstrate that earnings from Connectivity can balance out substantial costs in other areas.

Falcon 9 launched from Vandenberg at 8:08 p.m. PDT. The satellites separated 61.5 minutes after liftoff. Booster B1081 achieved its 26th launch and landing.

MeasureStarlink 17-52Wider context
Satellites carried24There are now more than 10,800 Starlink satellites operating
Booster reuseB1081’s 26th useThis was SpaceX’s 643rd time landing an orbital booster
2026 mission rank89th Falcon 9 launchThis is counted as the 90th mission for the Falcon series, which includes Falcon Heavy
Dedicated Starlink rank69th Starlink flightFalcon 9 missions devoted to Starlink account for 77.5% of all Falcon 9 launches

SpaceX is currently launching a Falcon 9 approximately every 2.4 days, putting the company on track for about 153 flights this year. In the past week, SpaceX completed two Starlink missions along with a classified launch.

Mission measureCountInvestor comparison
Starlink-only launches completed through July 3169Represents 77.5% of all Falcon 9 missions
Other Falcon 9 launches20Accounts for 22.5% of total
Recent Space Force contracts18Covers 90% of this year’s flights for third-party customers

This is the core point for investors. Around four out of every five Falcon 9 launches are dedicated to SpaceX’s own network. As a result, the number of launches reflects Starlink growth more than external customer demand.

External demand remained robust during the week. The U.S. Space Force granted SpaceX a contract for 18 launches from Vandenberg, valued at $1.6 billion. The launches are scheduled to be completed by the end of 2027, indicating a price of around $88.9 million per launch.

The award comes close to equaling the 20 non-Starlink Falcon 9 launches seen this year. U.S. Space Force Colonel Eric Zarybnisky described the faster procurement process as “the speed our warfighter demands more than ever before.” Space Force

The stock showed minimal reaction. SpaceX shares dropped 5.8% over the week. The Nasdaq composite increased by 1.6%, as the S&P 500 advanced 1.0%.

PerformanceFridayWeek through July 31
SpaceX-3.4%-5.8%
Nasdaq compositeup 1.0%up 1.6%
S&P 500rises 0.7%gains 1.0%

SpaceX shares are at $108.37, down 19.7% from the $135 IPO price and around 52% under the $225.64 high. The company debuted on the market less than two months back.

First-quarter data show that strong launches have yet to resolve disputes over value. SpaceX’s connectivity unit was the only segment to generate an operating profit. The bulk of the company’s capital expenditure went towards AI.

Q1 2026 segmentRevenueOperating income/(loss)Capital spending
Space$619 million$(662) million$1.052 billion
Connectivity$3.257 billion$1.188 billion$1.332 billion
AI$818 million$(2.469) billion$7.723 billion

Connectivity recorded an operating margin of approximately 36.5% in the first quarter. Early estimates from Visible Alpha project the second-quarter margin at 35.9%. Revenue is anticipated to be around $6.9 billion.

Trading restarts on Monday. SpaceX is due to report after Tuesday’s close, marking its first quarterly update since its IPO in June. Investors are set to focus on Connectivity margins, capital expenditure and Starship expenses rather than upcoming launch figures.

Risks: The mission on Friday took place after four days of postponements. Any Falcon malfunction, Starship budget overrun or declining Connectivity margin could hinder progress on expanding the network. Second-quarter estimates are still subject to change before Tuesday.

TS2 TECH • EXTENDED COVERAGE

Further analysis

Has SpaceX’s outlook changed significantly as a result of the latest Starlink launch?
At 03:08 UTC on August 1, Falcon 9 released 24 Starlink satellites. Booster B1081 achieved its 26th launch and touched down as planned. This marked the 90th Falcon mission conducted by SpaceX in 2026. While the mission demonstrates strong operational reliability, its main outcome is greater internal network capacity.
Could an increased launch cadence drive revenue growth at a quicker pace?
The number of launches has not directly boosted Space-segment revenue. Falcon flew 40 missions in Q1, up from 36, but segment revenue dropped 28.4% to $619 million. The main driver was four fewer customer launches. Starlink's paid user growth and third-party missions have greater revenue impact than launch frequency.
Has SPCX become undervalued now that it is trading under its IPO price?
SPCX finished trading on Friday at $108.37, marking a 19.7% drop from its IPO price of $135. The company's equity value stands at approximately $1.43 trillion, equating to about 76 times projected 2025 revenue. This valuation is based on the expectation of strong performance from Starlink, Starship, and AI.
What is the most likely short-term catalyst for the stock?
The next significant event is earnings on August 4. Consensus forecasts project revenue between $6.8 billion and $6.88 billion, with anticipated losses per share of $0.23–$0.29. AI-related capital expenditures in Q1 totaled $7.723 billion, prompting questions about returns. Following results, up to 911.5 million shares could become eligible for sale; eligibility, however, does not necessarily indicate sales will take place.
How does Wall Street view SPCX?
Wall Street sentiment is positive, but price targets show significant divergence. The average forecast stands at $236.71, suggesting approximately 118% potential gain from Friday's close. Analyst estimates span from $62 to $800, reflecting considerable uncertainty surrounding Starship, Starlink and AI prospects.
Michał Rogucki

Michał Rogucki is a senior markets reporter at TS2.tech. His coverage ranges from stocks and technology to economic developments affecting global markets. He graduated from Humboldt University of Berlin and worked in investment research and market analysis before becoming a financial journalist.

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