NEW YORK, August 21, 2026, 17:30 EDT —
- Shares of Critical Metals ended at $7.11, rising 22.6% with 16.18 million shares changing hands.
- The closing price stayed under the $8 minimum set by the revised takeover formula.
- A representative maximum ratio would result in 28.6% more shares being issued compared to the previous formula.
Shares of Critical Metals Corp. NASDAQ:CRML jumped 22.6% on Friday. The stock, however, closed at $7.11, remaining under the important $8 merger benchmark. As a result, the exchange ratio would remain at its maximum level if calculated at this price.
The difference is significant for existing shareholders. Under the updated agreement, holders will receive 0.045 shares of Critical Metals for every European Lithium Limited ASX:EUR share if the specified VWAP is $8 or less. Previously, the conversion ratio was set at 0.035.
| Market measure | August 21 close | Investor context |
|---|---|---|
| CRML price | $7.11 | Shares ended 11.1% under the $8 level |
| Daily move | +22.6% | Bounced back from $5.80 session low |
| Weekly move | +6.8% | Compared to August 14 close of $6.66 |
| Volume | 16.18 million | Trading was 2.72 times higher than the 20-day average |
Shares surged strongly on Friday, with volume hitting 16.18 million—2.72 times the 20-session average. Despite the advance, the stock ended the day 77.9% under its 52-week peak.
| Defined Scheme VWAP | CRML shares per EUR share | Effect |
|---|---|---|
| $8 or below | 0.045 | Highest ratio |
| From $8 up to $16 | Sliding scale | Linear adjustment |
| $16 or above | 0.025 | Lowest ratio |
| Previous agreement | 0.035 | Constant ratio |
The final ratio will be determined using a 20-trading-day Nasdaq VWAP calculated later. This period concludes two trading days before European Lithium’s scheme meeting. As a result, Friday’s calculation is for illustration only and does not represent the final deal terms.
The maximum ratio, which applies solely to European Lithium’s 1.726 billion ordinary shares, would result in the issuance of around 77.7 million CRML shares. Under the previous ratio, that figure was 60.4 million. This represents an increase of 17.3 million shares, or 11.7% of Critical Metals’ existing outstanding shares.
| Illustrative issuance at $7.11 | Old 0.035 ratio | Maximum 0.045 ratio |
|---|---|---|
| New CRML shares | 60.4 million | 77.7 million |
| Gross value | $429.4 million | $552.6 million |
| Value per EUR share | $0.2489 | $0.3200 |
| Change from old formula | — | +28.6% |
Michael Hanson, director of Critical Metals and head of its special committee, stated the revised terms “reflect the continued commitment of both companies to completing this combination.” European Lithium plans to release its scheme booklet in early September, with implementation scheduled for October, pending votes and court authorization. Critical Metals announcement
The agreement maintains a minimum cash requirement of $330 million. Loans linked to Velta could count up to $31 million toward that threshold. The fee for reimbursement stands at $12 million.
The focus has shifted to execution rather than the formula itself. Critical Metals holds a 92.5% stake in Greenland’s Tanbreez project and launched a 10,000-metre drilling program in June. Its $30 million plan aims to accelerate progress towards initial ore output in late 2028 or early 2029.
| Project marker | Timing or scale | Verified status |
|---|---|---|
| Tanbreez ownership | 92.5% | Critical Metals stake |
| Drilling campaign | 10,000 metres | Commenced June 17, 2026 |
| First ore target | Q4 2028 to Q1 2029 | Company plan |
| Concentrate exports | Q3 2029 | Company target |
| REalloys offtake | 15% of annual output | 15-year binding agreement |
The schedule for the project is driven by the company’s acceleration initiative. Under a binding contract, REalloys Inc. (NASDAQ:ALOY) has secured 15% of the annual production for a period of 15 years.
Analysts are divided. Freedom Broker downgraded the stock to Hold and reduced its price target to $8 on August 11. In July, Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with a Speculative Buy rating and set a target of $18.
| Analyst opinion | Recommendation | Price target | Potential increase from $7.11 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freedom Broker | Hold | $8 | 12.5% |
| S&P Global consensus | Hold | $13 average | 82.8% |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Speculative Buy | $18 | 153.2% |
Risks: The proposal could be blocked by shareholders or the court. There are still significant risks of delays in financing, permitting, and construction. Ownership levels and dilution may also change depending on the final VWAP, exercised options, and performance rights.
There are now two key figures on investor radar. Protection for target holders maxes out at $8. The subsequent 20-day VWAP will determine the final exchange ratio. Market action next week will reveal if Friday’s rally sustains above significant volume.
