MELBOURNE, August 22, 2026, 08:13 AEST
- BHP stock rose 6.2% during results week, increasing its market value by about A$19.4 billion.
- Underlying profit for fiscal 2026 increased by 30%, with copper accounting for 54% of the group’s underlying EBITDA.
- The closing price of A$65.16 on Friday was 8.9% higher than analysts’ average target of A$59.83.
BHP Group Limited ASX:BHP wrapped up results week posting a valuation increase estimated at A$19.4 billion. The stock finished Friday at A$65.16, marking a 6.2% rise compared to the prior Friday’s close. Australia’s markets have shut for the weekend.
The rally shifts the focus for investors. BHP posted profits ahead of forecasts, with copper surpassing iron ore as its leading source of earnings. However, the stock is now trading above the majority of analyst price targets.
Profit-taking emerged on Friday. BHP lost 0.9%, with 13.88 million shares traded. The stock saw more than double its usual volume and recorded the highest traded value in Australia at A$904.7 million.
| Results-week checkpoint | Close | Daily move |
|---|---|---|
| Friday, August 14 | A$61.35 | -3.3% |
| Monday, August 17 | A$62.20 | +1.4% |
| Tuesday, August 18 | A$63.85 | +2.7% |
| Thursday, August 20 | A$65.75 | +3.2% |
| Friday, August 21 | A$65.16 | -0.9% |
BHP posted underlying attributable profit of US$13.20 billion for the year ended June 30, representing an increase of 30% and coming in 4.3% ahead of the Visible Alpha consensus. Revenue climbed 15% to US$58.76 billion.
| Fiscal-year measure | FY2026 | FY2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | US$58.76bn | US$51.26bn | +15% |
| Underlying EBITDA | US$32.95bn | US$25.98bn | +27% |
| Underlying attributable profit | US$13.20bn | US$10.16bn | +30% |
| Operating cash flow | US$21.78bn | US$18.69bn | +17% |
| Net debt | US$8.69bn | US$12.92bn | -33% |
Copper accounted for US$18.19 billion in underlying EBITDA, while iron ore brought in US$14.53 billion. Copper’s share was 25% higher and made up 54% of group EBITDA.
Chief Executive Brandon Craig stated that “Copper is the engine that is driving BHP’s growth.” BHP expects copper production to rise by 40% by fiscal 2035. BHP
| Operating measure | FY2026 actual | FY2027 guide | Investor signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total copper production | 1.953Mt | 1.650–1.800Mt | Midpoint points to 11.7% drop |
| Total iron ore production | 264.7Mt | 260–272Mt | Midpoint shows little change |
| WA iron ore production | 256.9Mt | 253–264Mt | Midpoint marginally up |
| BMA coal production | 18.6Mt | 18.5–20.5Mt | Midpoint up 4.8% |
| Capital and exploration spending | US$10.26bn | About US$11bn | Growth spend increases |
The primary limitation on earnings is the short-term copper outlook, with its midpoint 11.7% under fiscal 2026 output levels. Weaker Escondida ore grades offset gains from increased prices and extended expansion timelines.
Cash returns provided a balance. The final dividend of US$0.99 brought BHP’s total annual payout to US$1.72 per share, marking its highest level in four years. Net debt dropped to under US$9 billion.
| Analyst or consensus | Date | Recommendation | Target | Return from A$65.16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macquarie | August 19 | Neutral | A$58.50 | -10.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | August 6 | Buy | A$67.00 | +2.8% |
| Citi | August 3 | Hold | A$63.00 | -3.3% |
| Bank of America | July 22 | Hold | A$65.00 | -0.2% |
| 17-analyst consensus | Current | Neutral: 4 buy, 12 hold, 1 sell | A$59.83 | -8.2% |
The consensus price target suggests shares could fall 8.2% from their Friday close. Of the recent ratings highlighted, only Morgan Stanley’s target signals significant potential for gains. Analysts have lagged the market’s rapid repricing of BHP.
BHP closed only 1.2% under its 52-week peak of A$65.98, narrowing the scope for an immediate rerating after results. Additional advances could depend on resilient copper prices or a boost in analyst forecasts.
This week, there are no planned operating updates. Investors should note Friday’s date for rand dividend conversion, ahead of the September 3 ex-dividend date. BHP will release its next operational review on October 20.
Risks: Copper prices may decline, and Escondida ore grades are set to limit production next year. Higher project costs at Jansen or for copper expansions could require additional cash. Lower steel demand from China would further impact iron ore profits.
The week’s gain was notable. Monday’s session will indicate if buyers will consider an analyst-target premium ahead of any rebound in fiscal 2027 copper output. BHP’s figures strengthened initially, with its valuation rising afterward.
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