MELBOURNE, July 18, 2026, 09:07 AEST
- BHP ended Friday at A$57.54, dropping 2.71%, while the S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.50%.
- The FY27 copper outlook indicates a midpoint decrease of 11.7% compared to FY26 production.
- Talks at Port Hedland are set to restart on July 21, with full-year earnings to be announced on August 18.
Australian markets did not open on Saturday. BHP Group Ltd ASX:BHP closed Friday at A$57.54, falling 2.71%, as its outlook for copper overshadowed a record iron ore production.
The main focus is at Escondida. BHP’s FY27 midpoint projects a group copper decrease of 227,800 tonnes, with roughly 92.7% attributed to its Chilean operation.
This is significant as copper accounted for 51% of the group’s underlying EBITDA in the December half, marking the first time the segment made up a majority share.
Production calculations intensify the trade-off:
| Production measure | FY26 actual | FY27 guidance midpoint* | Implied change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group copper output | 1,952.8 kt | 1,725 kt | -11.7% |
| Escondida copper | 1,261.2 kt | 1,050 kt | -16.7% |
| Group iron ore | 264.7 Mt | 266.0 Mt | +0.5% |
Company guidance provides the basis for midpoint and percentage change calculations.
Results for the June quarter nearly matched forecasts. Copper production totaled 491,900 tonnes, in line with Visible Alpha’s projection of 492,700 tonnes. WAIO output reached 74.8 million tonnes, compared to an estimate of 75.1 million.
Iron ore remained a source of stability. Output for FY26 hit a record 264.7 million tonnes, while realised prices climbed 3% to US$84.56 per wet tonne. Still, the midpoint of FY27 guidance stands just 0.5% above this.
Copper realised prices rose by 35% to US$5.74 per pound. As a result, BHP’s sensitivity to price changes increases due to the lower volume guidance.
Chief Executive Brandon Craig said: “Cost control was particularly strong.” BHP forecasts FY26 unit costs for its copper operations at the low end of guidance. BHP
BHP projects net debt to be about US$9 billion as of June 30, based on preliminary estimates. The company also indicated an anticipated Jansen project impairment of roughly US$2.3 billion. These numbers are pending final confirmation.
Shares dropped 1.3% for the week across five sessions. The S&P/ASX 200 eased 0.1%. BHP declined almost 5% over Thursday and Friday.
The magnitude of the change was greater than the minor quarterly shortfalls. Investors were instead challenged by a reset in copper volumes centered on one asset.
An additional operational test is scheduled for next week. Bargaining at Port Hedland is set to continue on Tuesday, with the Fair Work Commission present. High-voltage electricians approved industrial stoppages of up to 24 hours by a margin of 97.5%. The port handles approximately US$80 million in BHP iron ore each day.
Risks include the possibility of a sharper decline in Escondida grades, the escalation of labour action, and softer metals prices. Carrapateena’s conveyor malfunction could disrupt output for as long as eight weeks.
BHP’s next critical deadline is August 18, when the company will confirm its debt estimate and Jansen charge as part of its full-year results.
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