MELBOURNE, August 23, 2026, 09:05 AEST
- BHP rose 6.2% during results week, ending Friday at A$65.16.
- Copper accounted for 54% of underlying EBITDA in FY2026, surpassing iron ore.
- The analyst target of A$60.64 is currently 6.9% lower than the market price.
BHP Group Limited ASX:BHP finished results week trading close to its 52-week peak, as copper overtook iron ore as its top contributor to earnings. Shares settled at A$65.16 on Friday, marking a 6.2% gain from the previous Friday, even after dipping 0.9% in the last trading session.
The repricing has outpaced projections from analysts. The consensus price target among 17 analysts is A$60.64, which is 6.9% under Friday’s closing level. Of those, eleven analysts have a Hold rating on the stock, while four recommend Buy and two suggest Sell.
The gap will be scrutinised on Monday. Investors need to determine if unprecedented copper margins support a permanent valuation change, or if most of the earnings shock was already reflected in last week’s prices.
| Session | Close (A$) | Daily move |
|---|---|---|
| Aug. 14 | 61.35 | — |
| Aug. 17 | 62.20 | up 1.39% |
| Aug. 18 | 63.85 | up 2.65% |
| Aug. 19 | 63.71 | down 0.22% |
| Aug. 20 | 65.75 | up 3.20% |
| Aug. 21 | 65.16 | down 0.90% |
BHP reported a 30% rise in underlying attributable profit to US$13.20 billion, topping the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of US$12.66 billion by roughly 4.3%. Revenue advanced 15% to US$58.8 billion, while free cash flow surged 83% to US$9.8 billion.
| FY2026 measure | Result | Year-on-year |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | US$58.8bn | 15% higher |
| Underlying EBITDA | US$32.9bn | up 27% |
| Underlying profit | US$13.2bn | rose 30% |
| Free cash flow | US$9.8bn | increased 83% |
| Net debt | US$8.7bn | improved from US$12.9bn |
Copper drove the gains, with underlying EBITDA rising 48% to US$18.2 billion and accounting for 54% of the group’s total. Iron ore contributed around US$14.5 billion. BHP posted a 70% margin in copper.
| Core division | Underlying EBITDA | Group share | Key driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | US$18.2bn | 54% | Achieved price up 35% |
| Iron ore | Approximately US$14.5bn | Approximately 44% | WAIO output hits record |
Chief Executive Brandon Craig described FY2026 as “a strong year for BHP.” The miner delivered roughly 2 million tonnes of copper output for the second consecutive year and anticipates copper demand will increase from the current level of about 34 million tonnes to over 50 million by 2050. BHP results release
The balance sheet provided support as well. Net debt declined to US$8.69 billion, approaching the lower boundary of BHP’s target range. The annual dividend increased to US$1.72 per share, marking its highest level in four years. Argo Investments portfolio manager Andy Forster said he “loved the dividend.” Reuters
| Consensus view | Count / value | Position versus A$65.16 |
|---|---|---|
| Buy | 4 analysts | 24% of coverage |
| Hold | 11 analysts | 65% of coverage |
| Sell | 2 analysts | 12% of coverage |
| Average target | A$60.64 | -6.9% |
| High / low target | A$91.09 / A$42.76 | Valuation range is broad |
Post-results revisions are still limited. JPMorgan increased its price target to A$67 and maintained a Buy recommendation. RBC upped its target to A$60 while holding a Hold rating, and Macquarie also kept Hold at A$55. These adjustments illustrate why the consensus continues to lag behind the share price.
The upswing extended to other companies. Shares in Rio Tinto Limited ASX:RIO and Freeport-McMoRan Inc. NYSE:FCX also climbed as copper market conditions grew tighter. The parallel gains bolster the bullish outlook for commodities, although BHP continues to rely on iron ore cash flows for most of its expansion.
The selloff on Friday stood out. BHP saw 13.88 million shares change hands, more than double its typical turnover at 2.18 times average volume, and closed just 1.2% below its 52-week peak of A$65.98. Investors took some profits heading into the weekend, but Thursday’s gains largely held.
| Next checkpoint | Date | Investor relevance |
|---|---|---|
| ASX trading resumes | Aug. 24, around 10:00 AEST | First trading session after Friday’s decline |
| RAND conversion announcement | Aug. 28 | Details for dividend processing |
| ASX/LSE ex-dividend | Sept. 3 | Share price reflects dividend removal |
| Record date | Sept. 4 | Confirms eligibility for dividend |
| Payment date | Sept. 23 | Payment of US$0.99 final dividend |
Monday’s focus is straightforward. Copper prices need to remain steady, and BHP should maintain levels above the A$63.71–A$63.85 zone from results week. A close under that range would undermine the rerating argument. Staying above A$65 would leave the 52-week high within reach.
Risks: Copper prices are subject to rapid reversals in line with shifting growth outlooks. BHP is set to increase capital expenditures, and the Jansen potash project has raised cost-control issues. Labour action at iron ore sites in Western Australia introduces further execution risk.
The main issue is no longer if copper gave BHP a better year—it did. Now, the focus is whether that change can uphold a share price that exceeds most analysts’ valuation estimates.
Related articles: ASX:BHP
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