STARBASE, Texas, August 16, 2026, 04:07 CDT — U.S. cash markets remain shut as the weekend begins.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. NASDAQ:SPCX will see 320 million shares unlocked on Thursday. This batch represents 3.4 times the trading volume reported on Friday. The move may serve as the most significant liquidity test since the record-breaking IPO in June.
Shares finished at $136.71 on Friday, slipping 3.2% during the session. Weekly, they rose around 5.2%. The closing price puts SpaceX just 1.3% above its $135 offer price.
| Market measure | Latest figure | Comparison with Friday close or volume |
|---|---|---|
| Friday close | $136.71 | Reference |
| IPO price | $135.00 | Friday close up 1.3% |
| June peak | $225.64 | Friday close down 39.4% |
| Friday volume | 94.7 million shares | Reference |
| August 20 eligible block | 320 million shares | Equivalent to 3.4 times Friday’s volume; $43.7 billion using Friday’s close |
The anticipated selloff did not materialize following the initial major unlock. SpaceX climbed over 6% on August 6 and added nearly 16% on the following day. The gains indicated that a portion of the selling pressure may have already been reflected in the price.
However, being eligible does not guarantee that a sale will occur. There are seven additional scheduled release rounds remaining before year-end. Research analyst Ed Elson predicts “a lot of selling pressure” as initial investors become able to cash out. Business Insider
The possible supply is accompanied by a high level of institutional concentration. As of June 30, Alphabet Inc. NASDAQ:GOOGL owned 551.2 million SpaceX shares. This single holding is 5.8 times greater than Friday’s trading volume.
| Reported holder | Shares at June 30 | Value at Friday’s close | Equivalent Friday volumes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet | 551.2 million | $75.4 billion | 5.8 |
| Fidelity Investments | 302.6 million | $41.4 billion | 3.2 |
| Gigafund Management | 171.8 million | $23.5 billion | 1.8 |
| Saudi Public Investment Fund | 154.1 million | $21.1 billion | 1.6 |
| Baillie Gifford | 51.4 million | $7.0 billion | 0.5 |
| BlackRock | 51.0 million | $7.0 billion | 0.5 |
The filings do not indicate which investors are still locked in. They also provide no details about present selling intentions. “It’s very, very difficult to tease out” which institutions held pre-IPO shares, Interactive Brokers strategist Steve Sosnick told Reuters.
That unpredictability works in both directions. A slow pace of selling might increase the available float without sharply impacting price. On the other hand, significant sales from initial investors would challenge demand around the offer price.
Wall Street analysts continue to express optimism in their official targets, though estimates vary significantly. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jones described the market’s current valuation of SpaceX’s AI division as “extremely conservative.” His team reiterated their $300 target. Investopedia
| Research firm | Recommendation | Price target | Upside from Friday close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $300 | 119% |
| Bernstein | Outperform | $239 | 75% |
| RBC Capital Markets | Outperform | $225 | 65% |
| Clear Street | Buy | $217 | 59% |
| Citi | Buy | $200 | 46% |
| Stifel | Buy | $190 | 39% |
The core case grew stronger following the second-quarter earnings. Revenue increased by 92% to $7.8 billion. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $3.5 billion, and capital expenditures rose to $18.4 billion.
Ownership is also considered when assessing value. As of June 30, Elon Musk held a 48.4% economic interest. His share of the voting rights stood at over 82%, even with the public float growing.
When trading restarts Monday, investors are set to monitor volume, block trades and price steadiness. This week’s primary technical event is Thursday’s unlock. If shares finish above the IPO price following the unlock, it would indicate persistent demand.
Risks: The 320 million shares might remain unsold. Short covering has the potential to push the stock higher. On the other hand, insider selling, substantial capital requirements or softer AI performance may weigh on the valuation.
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