Nike Stock Skyrockets After Earnings Beat

Strong Q1 performance: Nike reported Q1 FY2026 revenue of $11.72 billion (up 1% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.49 ^[1] ^[2], easily topping analysts’ forecasts (~$11.0 B sales and $0.27 EPS). Gross margin fell to 42.2% (–320 bps) ^[3]. Wholesale sales surged 7% (to $6.8 B) while direct sales dipped 4% ($4.5 B) ^[4].
Share reaction: Nike’s stock ticked up ≈1–2% on the news (trading around $69.7 on Sept. 30) ^[5] ^[6]. This modest bounce came despite still-weak fundamentals, reflecting relief that Nike beat the “low bar” set by bears.
Leadership comments: CEO Elliott Hill stressed that Nike is “driving progress” through its “Win Now” strategy and investments in key areas, though he cautioned “we still have work ahead” to fully revive all product lines ^[7]. CFO Matt Friend echoed the tone: “I’m encouraged by the momentum… but progress will not be linear” ^[8]. Together the duo noted they’re managing headwinds (from tariffs and weak retail) while focusing on execution.
Analyst take: Many analysts were cautious. Zacks strategist David Bartosiak warned that “DTC weakness, margin pressure, and China softness are flashing yellow lights” despite the beat ^[9]. Nike is still navigating U.S. tariffs (≈$1 B added costs) and choppy demand, particularly in China ^[10] ^[11]. Wall Street consensus remains modestly bullish: 23 analysts have a “Buy” consensus on NKE, with an average 12-month price target of about $81–82 (~17–18% above current levels) ^[12]. Notably, RBC Capital just upgraded Nike to “Outperform” with a $90 target (citing new products and the 2026 World Cup) ^[13] ^[14].
Forward outlook: Despite short-term softness, forecasters expect a rebound. Zacks and others project FY2026 sales around $46–48 B (a slight decline) and EPS ~$1.65–1.70. For FY2027, sales are forecast to jump ~5–6% (to ~$49 B) and EPS to ~$2.50 ^[15] ^[16], as Nike’s turnaround strategies (and big sporting events) kick in. Nike currently trades at ~41x forward earnings ^[17], reflecting high expectations for a recovery.

Q1 FY2026 Results: Revenue and Profit Surprise

Nike’s late-September earnings release showed a clear beat on both sales and profit. Total Q1 revenue was $11.72 B, up 1% year-over-year; analysts had expected a decline to about $11.0 B ^[18] ^[19]. On the bottom line, Nike earned $0.49 per share, far above the $0.27 consensus estimate ^[20] ^[21]. The 1.5-point rise in gross margin to 42.2% was powered by stronger-than-expected wholesale restocking. Indeed, wholesale revenues jumped 7% to $6.8 B ^[22]. In contrast, Nike’s Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) sales (retail stores and digital) were down 4% ($4.5 B) ^[23], as Nike cuts promotions and trims excess inventory. Overall profit fell (net income –31% YoY) due to higher discounting and tariffs ^[24] ^[25], but the upside surprise was a relief to investors who had braced for a downturn.

CEO/CFO: “Win Now” Strategy and Caution

CEO Elliott Hill (a 30-year Nike veteran who took over in late 2024) hailed the quarter as evidence that Nike’s “Win Now” turnaround is taking hold. He emphasized progress in key areas (running shoes, wholesale relationships, North America) and said he’s “confident… we have the right focus in Win Now” ^[26]. But Hill also warned “we still have work ahead” to restore all sports categories, regions and channels. CFO Matt Friend similarly struck a balanced tone. He said he’s “encouraged by the momentum… but progress will not be linear as [we] manage a dynamic operating environment” ^[27]. In other words, Nike is making headway but still facing hurdles (macroeconomic weakness, trade tariffs, lingering inventory) as it rebuilds sales.

Analysts React: Cautious Optimism

Wall Street’s response was muted optimism. Nike’s shares closed up around 0.3% on Sept 30 ^[28] ^[29]. Analysts pointed out that Nike handily beat the “low bar” that skeptics had set. However, many still warned that fundamental challenges remain. Zacks analyst David Bartosiak noted that “Nike beat the low bar set for EPS and showed some wholesale strength, but the underlying fundamentals are still shaky” ^[30]. He flagged ongoing margin pressure, weakening DTC sales, and a soft China market as yellow lights for Nike’s turnaround.

On the positive side, retailers are seeing early signs of recovery. Just days before the earnings report, JD Sports (one of Nike’s top customers) praised Nike’s new leadership. JD’s CFO Dominic Platt said Nike is “doing all the right things” to reset its business, noting that recent running-shoe launches (e.g. updated Vomero, Pegasus models) are “resonating well with customers” ^[31]. This echoes other bullish signals: Nike boosted marketing (+9% in FY2025) ahead of the 2026 U.S. World Cup ^[32], and new initiatives like the NikeSKIMS activewear line (in partnership with Kim Kardashian) are targeting women’s growth ^[33].

In sum, analysts say Nike’s execution is improving but still uneven. Most rate Nike a “Hold” or “Buy” with targets mostly in the $65–90 range. StockAnalysis.com notes the consensus price target of ~$81.7 implies ~17% upside ^[34]. (By comparison, Nike’s last 52-week high was about $89.8.) Notably, RBC Capital Markets recently upgraded Nike to “Outperform” with a $90 target, arguing new products and major sports events will boost revenue ^[35]. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s team reiterated a cautious view (Equalweight, $70 target) ahead of the report ^[36] ^[37], and Zacks still classifies NKE a #3 (Hold) stock given its high valuation ^[38].

Turnaround Strategy, Competition and Outlook

Nike’s turnaround roadmap is in focus. Under Hill, Nike is refocusing on core sports performance (especially running) and repairing retailer relationships it strained with heavy DTC pushes. The new “Sport Offense” org structure and marketing blitz (e.g. World Cup campaigns) aim to remind consumers of Nike’s heritage in athletics. At the same time, Nike is battling tough trends. It has ceded market share in recent years to newcomers like On Running and Hoka (Decker’s) ^[39], and it has struggled with costly U.S. tariffs on shoes (estimated to add ~$1 B in costs) ^[40]. Nike is mitigating that by diversifying factories (less China) and scaling back discounting.

Looking forward, analysts expect Nike’s sales and profits to improve by late FY2026 and into FY2027. Consensus forecasts (e.g. Zacks) call for FY2026 revenue of ~$46–48 B (down slightly) and EPS around $1.65–1.70, versus roughly $53 B/$2.16 in FY2025 ^[41] ^[42]. By FY2027, as major sports events kick in (Olympics/World Cup) and inventories normalize, Wall Street models a rebound to ~$48–49 B in sales and EPS ~$2.50 ^[43] ^[44]. Nike’s management has so far only reaffirmed that it expects continued headwinds but is confident in its strategy; it has not given formal FY2026 guidance yet.

Bottom Line: Nike’s latest quarter stunned skeptics with a solid top-line beat and EPS upside ^[45] ^[46]. The results lend credibility to CEO Hill’s “Win Now” push, but executives and analysts alike stress that recovery is gradual. In the coming weeks investors will be watching Nike’s commentary on the holiday season, inventory levels, and how the new women’s SKIMS line performs. For now, Nike is showing signs of life – a welcome sight for its investors after a tough multi-year stretch – but the journey back to robust growth will likely be a marathon, not a sprint ^[47] ^[48].

Sources: Nike Q1 FY2026 earnings release and financial statements ^[49] ^[50]; Reuters news analysis ^[51] ^[52]; investing.com earnings recap ^[53]; and commentary from analysts and executives (Zacks, JP Morgan, RBC, JD Sports) ^[54] ^[55] ^[56] ^[57]. All figures are in USD.