Market Record Rally Amid Shutdown: A Deep Dive into U.S. Stock Performance on 1 October 2025

Indices hit new highs despite shutdown: U.S. stocks reversed early losses and closed higher for a fourth session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked up 0.09% to 46 441.10, the S&P 500 climbed 0.34% to a record 6 711.20, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.42% to 22 755.16 ^[1].
Sector rotation into health care and technology: A historic agreement between Pfizer and the White House to cut drug prices in exchange for tariff relief triggered a 2.7 % rally in health‑care stocks ^[2]. Notable gainers included Biogen (+10.9%), Thermo Fisher (+9.4%) ^[3], Eli Lilly (+9%) ^[4] and AstraZeneca.
Weak jobs data but resilient sentiment: The ADP private-payroll report showed U.S. private-sector jobs fell by 32 000 in September, below expectations for a 50 000 gain ^[5]. Yet investors shrugged off the slowdown, betting that the Federal Reserve will respond with interest‑rate cuts. The 10‑year Treasury yield slid to around 4.10 % ^[6].
Government shutdown and macro backdrop: A partial U.S. government shutdown began as Congress failed to agree on a budget. Economists predicted the shutdown would delay the monthly jobs report and other data, complicating the Fed’s rate decisions ^[7]. Historically, shutdowns have had limited market impact; LPL Financial strategist Adam Turnquist noted that in past shutdowns the S&P 500 averaged a –1.6 % return, but it actually gained more than 10 % during the 2018–19 closure ^[8].
Analysts’ forecasts: RBC Capital Markets raised its year‑end 2025 S&P 500 target to 6 250 and kept its earnings forecast at $258 per share, citing expectations for 1.1–2 % U.S. GDP growth ^[9]. Goldman Sachs later increased its 2025 target to 6 800 with 6‑ and 12‑month return expectations of 5 % and 8 %, pointing to a dovish Fed and resilient earnings ^[10]. RBC subsequently introduced a preliminary 2026 target of 7 100 with projected earnings of $297 ^[11].

Market Overview

Index Performance

The 1 October 2025 session began under a cloud as the federal government shut down due to a budget impasse. Stock futures opened lower amid fears that key economic reports might be delayed ^[12]. By the closing bell, however, Wall Street had staged a dramatic recovery:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: The blue‑chip index rose 0.09 % to 46 441.10, setting a new all‑time closing high ^[13]. Gains in health‑care and technology stocks offset weakness in industrials and materials.
S&P 500: The broad index added 0.34 % to 6 711.20 ^[14], also closing at a record. The rally marked the fourth straight daily advance and extended the year‑to‑date climb to roughly 18 %.
Nasdaq Composite: Benefiting from a rebound in chipmakers, the tech‑heavy gauge gained 0.42 % to 22 755.16 ^[15].

Contrary to midday reports that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were modestly negative due to a risk‑off mood ^[16], late‑day buying pushed all major indices into positive territory. Market breadth improved: the S&P 500 recorded 37 new 52‑week highs versus 7 lows, while the Nasdaq tallied 111 highs and 68 lows ^[17].

Sector Breakdown

Health care stocks were the day’s star performers. After months of underperformance, investors rotated into the sector following a breakthrough deal between Pfizer and the Trump administration to lower drug prices in return for tariff relief ^[18]. The S&P 500 health‑care index surged 2.7 % ^[19], with large gains for drugmakers and biotech firms:

Biogen jumped 10.9 %, while Thermo Fisher Scientific climbed 9.4 % ^[20].
Eli Lilly rallied around 9 %, aided by blockbuster diabetes treatments ^[21].
AstraZeneca and Novo Nordisk also gained roughly 10 % and 7 %, respectively ^[22].

Janus Henderson portfolio manager Lara Castleton attributed the move to sector rotation, noting that investors had previously focused on technology and AI‑related stocks but were now looking for undervalued opportunities ^[23]. The technology sector still posted respectable gains—chipmaker Micron rose 8.9 %, lifting the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index by 2 % ^[24]—but its leadership was overtaken by health care.

Other sectors showed mixed results:

Utilities advanced about 1 % thanks to a 17 % rally in AES Corp., after reports that BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners might acquire the electric utility ^[25].
Materials fell more than 1 % ^[26], despite a 23 % jump in Lithium Americas and a 4.2 % rise in Albemarle after the U.S. government took stakes in their projects ^[27]. Fertilizer company Corteva slumped 9 % when it announced plans to separate its seed and pesticide divisions ^[28].

Notable Stocks

Aside from health care, several individual names made headlines:

Nike shares climbed 6 %, beating earnings expectations on resilient consumer demand ^[29].
Intel gained 7 % after rolling out next‑generation AI chips ^[30].
Lithium Americas surged 23.3 % when the U.S. government announced a 5 % stake in its Nevada mine project; Albemarle rose 4.2 % ^[31].
AES Corp. jumped 17 % on reports of a $38 billion takeover bid from BlackRock’s infrastructure arm ^[32].

Conversely, some stocks lagged. Online signature company DocuSign declined, unable to recover from the prior day’s selloff as investors worried about competition from generative AI systems (DocuGPT) ^[33]. Fertilizer maker Corteva tumbled 9 % after announcing a corporate split ^[34].

Economic Data and Macroeconomic Context

The market’s resilience came despite surprisingly weak economic data. The ADP payroll report showed private‑sector employment falling by 32 000 jobs in September, compared with expectations for a 50 000 gain ^[35]. This was the largest drop in over two years and reinforced the view that the labour market is cooling. Manufacturing activity hinted at recovery; the ISM manufacturing index was expected to edge up to 49.0—still signalling contraction but improving from prior months ^[36].

The government shutdown added uncertainty. Economists warned that the shutdown could delay the official September jobs report and other data, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to gauge the economy ^[37]. According to Morningstar economists, the Fed might hesitate to cut rates without reliable data, though some, like Claudia Sahm, argued that a cut would still be necessary because the labor market is softening ^[38] ^[39].

Market participants still expect near-term easing. Futures markets priced in a 25‑basis‑point Fed rate cut at the Oct. 28–29 FOMC meeting ^[40]. The 10‑year Treasury yield slipped to roughly 4.10 % ^[41], reflecting expectations for looser monetary policy. Gold futures gained 0.6 %, the U.S. dollar index was little changed and West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 0.6 % ^[42]. Bitcoin rose 2.7 %, continuing its strong year‑to‑date run ^[43].

Analyst Commentary and Institutional Perspectives

Sector Rotation and Market Resilience

Lara Castleton of Janus Henderson explained that the health‑care rally was part of a broader sector rotation. She noted that investors had been focused on “all the hype around technology and AI” but were now returning to more defensive sectors after underperformance ^[44]. The Pfizer tariff agreement reinforced the narrative that bipartisan cooperation could unlock value in neglected industries ^[45].

Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, urged investors not to overreact to the shutdown. He highlighted that during past U.S. government shutdowns the S&P 500’s average return was –1.6 %, but in the most recent shutdown (late 2018 to early 2019) the index actually rose more than 10 % ^[46]. According to Turnquist, markets tend to focus on corporate earnings and macro trends rather than short‑term political squabbles ^[47].

Federal Reserve Outlook

The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.00–4.25 % at its September meeting amid rising unemployment and slowing job creation ^[48]. Chair Jerome Powell noted that job gains were now below the “break‑even” rate needed to keep unemployment from rising and emphasised that the central bank must balance inflation risks with the need to support employment ^[49]. The Fed projected 2025 inflation at about 3 % and unemployment around 4.5 % ^[50], signalling more cuts ahead even though inflation remains above target. Some policymakers, such as new governor Stephen Miran, dissented in favour of a larger cut, underscoring the growing urgency to support the labor market ^[51].

Economists are divided over the next move. The Morningstar article highlighted that the government shutdown deprived the Fed of key data like the monthly jobs report, complicating decision‑making ^[52]. Former Fed official Ellen Meade argued that the central bank might pause until reliable data return, while economist Claudia Sahm suggested that the labour market weakness makes another cut likely ^[53] ^[54].

Future Outlook: Near‑Term and Long‑Term Forecasts

Institutional Forecasts for 2025–2026

Several major brokerages published updated projections for the S&P 500 and the broader economy in 2025–26:

RBC Capital Markets raised its year‑end 2025 target to 6 250 and maintained its EPS projection of $258, citing expectations for 1.1–2 % U.S. GDP growth, inflation slightly below 3 % and 10‑year Treasury yields above 4 % ^[55]. RBC’s Lori Calvasina warned that the market looked “a bit overvalued” but sees upside if earnings growth stays solid ^[56].
RBC later introduced a preliminary 2026 second‑half target of 7 100 with $297 EPS, while raising its 2025 target again to 6 350 and increasing its EPS forecast to $269, emphasizing long‑term optimism despite short‑term volatility ^[57].
Goldman Sachs lifted its 2025 target to 6 800 and raised its six‑ and 12‑month S&P 500 return estimates to 5 % and 8 %, implying index levels of roughly 7 000 and 7 200. The firm cited a dovish Fed and resilience in corporate earnings as key drivers ^[58].
Other brokerages, including BMO and Oppenheimer (information not directly available here), reportedly also raised targets as the rally broadened; however, their specific forecasts were not accessible in our sources.

Market Implications

These forecasts suggest that Wall Street expects the bull market to continue, albeit at a slower pace. RBC anticipates moderate economic growth and believes that 2026 earnings will benefit from a healthier economy and potential policy stability ^[59]. Goldman’s more aggressive target reflects confidence in a prolonged earnings cycle and a dovish Fed. Both institutions caution that short‑term volatility—stemming from policy uncertainty, inflation persistence and a possible economic slowdown—could prompt market pullbacks ^[60].

Risks and Unknowns

The government shutdown poses near‑term uncertainty. While past shutdowns had minimal long‑term market impact ^[61], delays in economic data may affect Fed policy and investor sentiment. The weak ADP payroll number adds to concerns that the labour market is losing momentum ^[62]. Persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions (for example, U.S.–China trade disputes or energy‑market disruptions) could also challenge equities. Investors should monitor upcoming non‑farm payrolls, ISM services index and corporate earnings for clearer signals ^[63].

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October 1 2025 was a remarkable session for U.S. equities. Investors overcame concerns about a government shutdown and weak private‑sector hiring to push the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new records ^[64]. The day underscored the power of sector rotation, with health‑care stocks leading the charge after a landmark Pfizer deal ^[65], while long‑duration assets such as government bonds rallied on expectations of upcoming Fed rate cuts ^[66].

Analysts remain optimistic but cautious. Lara Castleton highlighted opportunities in unloved sectors ^[67], and Adam Turnquist urged investors not to overreact to political noise ^[68]. Institutional forecasts from RBC and Goldman Sachs project the S&P 500 finishing 2025 between 6 250 and 6 800, with potential for 7 100 in 2026 ^[69] ^[70] ^[71]. Yet the path forward will likely be uneven, given the uncertain economic data and policy backdrop.

Overall, the market’s ability to rally to all‑time highs during a shutdown reflects investor confidence that lower interest rates and solid corporate earnings will support stocks over the medium term. Traders and long‑term investors alike should remain attentive to upcoming macro data, Fed decisions and geopolitical events as they navigate the final months of 2025.

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References

Market Record Rally Amid Shutdown: A Deep Dive into U.S. Stock Performance on 1 October 2025

Market Overview

Index Performance

Sector Breakdown

Notable Stocks

Economic Data and Macroeconomic Context

Analyst Commentary and Institutional Perspectives

Sector Rotation and Market Resilience

Federal Reserve Outlook

Future Outlook: Near‑Term and Long‑Term Forecasts

Institutional Forecasts for 2025–2026

Market Implications

Risks and Unknowns

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References

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