Joby Aviation Stock Skyrockets on Game-Changing Deals & FAA Push (Oct 2025)

Stock Performance: As of Oct 2, 2025, JOBY trades around $17.10 (up ~5.5% on the day) with a 52-week range of $4.80–$20.94 ^[1]. The stock has more than tripled over the past year.
Major Deals: In early August 2025 Joby announced two blockbuster agreements: acquiring Blade Air Mobility’s passenger business (for up to $125M) and partnering with L3Harris to develop a defense-grade hybrid eVTOL ^[2] ^[3]. These moves instantly give Joby ground infrastructure (e.g. Blade’s terminals) and a new military revenue stream.
Global Expansion: In late Sept 2025 Joby flew its eVTOL publicly at Japan’s Expo 2025 (with ANA Holdings) ^[4] and signed a UAE deal (Ras Al Khaimah/Skyports) to launch service by 2027 ^[5]. These partnerships tap government support and prepare new markets (Tokyo, Dubai) for Joby’s air taxi service.
Financials (Q2 2025): Revenue was negligible (~$20K) ^[6], EPS was –$0.41, and net loss about $325M ^[7]. Joby ended Q2 2025 with $991M cash ^[8]. Management expects ~$500–$540M cash burn in 2025 ^[9].
Analyst Outlook: Most analysts remain cautious (consensus “Hold”) with an average price target ≈$10.50 ^[10], well below the current price. Analysts’ targets range from $7 (JPMorgan) to $17 (Canaccord) ^[11]. One buy, four hold, one sell (MarketBeat consensus) ^[12].
AAM Sector: The global eVTOL/Air Mobility market is projected in the hundreds of billions over 20 years (Eve Air Mobility estimates ~$280B passenger revenue by 2045) ^[13]. Governments are supporting eVTOL: e.g. the US FAA launched an AAM pilot program in Sept 2025 ^[14] and Japan’s JCAB is working on regulations for Joby flights ^[15].
Peers: Competitors include Archer (FAA certification in progress) and Beta Technologies (filed for IPO Sept 29, 2025 with a $300M GE investment ^[16]). Others: Eve/Embraer, Lilium, and Volocopter are also advancing eVTOL projects.

Joby’s eVTOL (with ANA livery) made history with public demonstration flights at Expo 2025 Osaka ^[17], attracting ~200,000 daily visitors and helping shape Japan’s air taxi regulatory roadmap ^[18]. Over 20 flights are planned during the Oct 1–13 expo ^[19], offering the public a first glimpse of electric air taxi service. These flights involved JCAB (Japan’s aviation regulator) and local governments, marking an important step toward certification and market rollout ^[20].

Recent News & Developments

Blade/Uber integration (Sept 2025): Joby acquired New York-based Blade Air Mobility’s helicopter/seaplane business in August 2025 (for up to $125M), then announced the plan to integrate those services into Uber’s app by 2026 ^[21]. Blade flew ~50,000 VIP passengers in 2024, and its city terminals (e.g. NYC, Boston, Florida) give Joby ready infrastructure and customers ^[22] ^[23]. Analysts hailed this as “massive de-risking” of Joby’s commercial launch path ^[24].

Defense partnership (Aug 2025): Joby and defense contractor L3Harris unveiled a joint project to build a hybrid (gas-turbine) VTOL for military use ^[25]. Flight tests are expected by late 2025, with demos in 2026 ^[26] ^[27]. This collaboration leverages Joby’s S4 electric aircraft platform (plus autonomy tech from its Xwing acquisition) and positions Joby in large defense contracts (non-dilutive funding) ^[28]. The deals also validate Joby’s technology – L3Harris calls it an “urgently-required innovation” ^[29].

Japan / ANA partnership (Sept 2025): Joby and Japan’s ANA Holdings teamed up to build an air taxi network. As phase 1, Joby flew its eVTOL (in ANA colors) at the Expo 2025 Osaka ^[30]. This was a “global first” at a world expo and signals Japan’s intent to become an AAM leader ^[31]. ANA noted support from national/local government and JCAB, and Toyota (Joby’s investor) is backing Japanese expansion ^[32]. Planned is a vertiport network around Tokyo, training programs, and eventual commercial service (date TBD) ^[33].

Analyst & Expert Commentary

Analysts note that Joby’s recent deals shifted the narrative. A MarketBeat analysis dubbed the Blade and L3Harris deals “game-changing”, saying they “fundamentally reshape[ed]” Joby’s growth path ^[34] ^[35]. The market’s reaction has been extreme: by Oct 2, 2025 Joby’s share price had already exceeded the consensus target (around $10) set by Wall Street ^[36].

Nevertheless, Wall Street remains cautious. Consensus is “Hold” among 6 analysts ^[37]. Price targets span $7–$17 ^[38]. For example, JPMorgan (8/1/25) rated JOBY Underweight, raising its target to $7 ^[39]. Canaccord Genuity (8/7/25) upgraded its view (Hold, PT $17) but trimmed upside ^[40]. Cantor Fitzgerald (6/23/25) held Neutral at $9 ^[41]. HC Wainwright cut its Buy to Neutral (target not publicly updated) ^[42].

Prominent investors remain divided. Notably, in Aug 2025 Joby Director Paul Sciarra sold 500,000 shares under a pre-planned schedule ^[43], which raised eyebrows. Analysts caution that insider selling is often tax/liquidity planning in this industry, not necessarily a bearish signal ^[44]. Indeed, Toyota concurrently completed its second $250M tranche investment (of a $500M strategic deal) for 49.7M new JOBY shares ^[45] ^[46] – a sign of confidence. Other institutional investors (Citadel, Renaissance, Vanguard) have also added to their positions in 2025.

Upcoming Catalysts

FAA Certification: Joby is deep in the FAA’s Type Certification process. As of Q2’25, Stage 4 (final design review) was 70% complete on Joby’s side (50% on FAA’s) ^[47]. Joby expects to finish Stage 4 in 2025 and achieve full certification by mid-2026. A pilot program announced Sep 2025 lets certified routes open before full cert ^[48] – a regulatory green light to start limited service. Joby plans to begin crewed test flights from its Texas vertiport (TIA facility) by late 2025.
Vertiports & Service Launch: In addition to Japan and UAE plans, Joby is working on hubs in California and Florida. It projects “up to 24 aircraft per year” production by 2026 in Marina, CA ^[49] and 500/year in Ohio. Key upcoming dates include the Q3 earnings call (Nov 5, 2025) and possibly an IPO of Blade’s spinoff for transparency. Any FAA announcement of test routes or Blade/Uber integration milestones could move the stock.
Macro Trends: Surging demand for fast, green travel could be a tailwind. Joint Ventures (e.g. Saudi Arabia’s NEOM, or Los Angeles’s AAM initiative) may spur contracts. Conversely, macro headwinds or certification delays pose risk.

Joby’s announced joint venture in Ras Al Khaimah (UAE) will use local aerial infrastructure (from partner Skyports) to begin an air taxi service by 2027 ^[50]. The signing in Sept 2025 (with Ruler Sheikh Saud bin Saqr Al Qasimi present) highlights Gulf governments’ eagerness for AAM. Like Expo Japan, this builds political momentum and future markets for Joby’s eVTOL.

eVTOL / Air Mobility Sector Overview

The advanced air mobility (AAM) industry is on fire. Long-term market studies (e.g. by Eve Air Mobility) forecast a 30,000-strong eVTOL fleet by 2045 and ~$280 billion annual passenger revenue ^[51]. Key growth drivers include urban congestion (hours lost in traffic), environmental goals, and tech maturation ^[52]. However, safety, regulation, airspace integration, and infrastructure remain hurdles ^[53].

Major players besides Joby:

Archer Aviation (ACHR): U.S. rival flying its 4-passenger Midnight eVTOL. Archer targets FAA approval in 2026, and Motley Fool noted a Wall Street PT of $18 (in Sept 2025) ^[54].
Beta Technologies: (private, Amazon-backed) builds electric CTOL e-plane. Beta filed for a U.S. IPO on Sept 29, 2025 ^[55]. It garnered a $300M investment from GE for a hybrid-electric turbogenerator partnership ^[56] and has flown thousands of test hours.
Eve Air Mobility (EVEX): Embraer spinoff (NYSE: EVEX) with a full-scale eVTOL mockup unveiled at Paris Air Show 2025. Eve’s market study (above) signals strong demand.
Lilium (LILM): German eVTOL developer now pushing certification into 2026. (Currently in bankruptcy proceedings as of mid-2025.)
Volocopter, Vertical, etc.: Other global eVTOL projects (often smaller craft) continue test flights in Europe and Asia.

Investors watch for first-mover advantage. Joby’s emphasis on quiet, piloted air taxis (carrying 4+1) contrasts with competitors focusing on autonomous UAM. Government partnerships (e.g. Dubai/UAE, Japan, U.S.) are key to adoption.

Price Targets & Forecasts

Analyst (Date)	Price Target
JPMorgan (Underweight, 8/1/25)	$7.00 ^[57]
Cantor Fitzgerald (Neutral, 6/23/25)	$9.00 ^[58]
Canaccord Genuity (Hold, 8/7/25)	$17.00 ^[59]
Consensus (all firms)	Hold; avg ~$10.50 ^[60]

Analyst sentiment is mixed. No firm above has a Buy rating (2 Neutral, 1 Hold, 1 Underweight, 1 Sell). The Street’s average target is ~$10–11 ^[61], implying ~35–40% downside from current levels. Some bullish voices (like HC Wainwright) had Buy ratings earlier, but recently all scaled back. Downside risks cited: continuing losses, slow certification, stiff competition. Upside case: first-to-market air taxi revenue and defense contracts.

Key Financials

Metric	Q2 2024	Q2 2025
Revenue	~$0 (negligible)	$0.02M ^[62]
Net Loss (GAAP)	~$286M (Jun ’24) ^[63]	~$325M ^[64] (prelim.)
EPS (GAAP)	–$0.45 (Jun ’24) ^[65]	–$0.41 ^[66]
Cash & Equivalents	$825M ^[67]	$991M ^[68]
Cash Burn	–	~$112M (Q2’25) ^[69]

Revenue: Joby is still pre-revenue on eVTOL operations. It recognizes only a few thousand dollars for R&D contracts (Q2’25 was $20K ^[70]).
Losses: Massive R&D and personnel costs keep losses in the hundreds of millions. Q2’25 net loss was reported at $325M ^[71] (up from ~$286M a year ago ^[72], partly due to non-cash accounting).
Cash: Despite high burn, Joby’s balance sheet is strong. It held nearly $1.0 billion at Q2’25 ^[73], after Toyota’s second $250M funding. At its current cash burn (guidance ~$500–$540M/year ^[74]), runway extends into 2026 even after certification spends.

Joby’s burn is expected to remain heavy until commercial operations begin. The company guided 2025 cash usage (ex-Blade deal) of $500–540M ^[75]. For context, Q2’25 cash burn was $112M, down 10% from Q1’25 ^[76].

Competitive & Regulatory Landscape

The race is on. Established aerospace firms and startups alike are jockeying in AAM: Airbus is working with Volocopter (Germany), Boeing with Wisk Aero, and even automakers (e.g. Porsche/Airbus’s CityAirbus) are in the mix. Chinese eVTOL makers (e.g. EHang) also plan international expansion.

Regulatory progress will be critical. In the US, the FAA’s new AAM pilot program (Sept 2025) enables early operations in select cities ^[77]. Joby lobbied actively for this, noting it “allows aircraft in the program to begin operations… ahead of full FAA certification” ^[78]. Japan’s JCAB is modeling its rules on US/EU standards and working closely with Joby ^[79]. The UAE and other Middle Eastern regulators are also carving out airspace corridors for eVTOL trial flights.

In summary, Joby’s outlook depends on execution: delivering its quiet, fast air taxi on schedule, controlling costs, and winning customers/partners. The stock’s recent rally reflects optimism about Joby’s unique progress (blade/Uber network, international deals, defense work) ^[80] ^[81]. Yet analysts caution that the certification process and revenue ramp remain uncertain. For long-term investors, Joby sits at the forefront of a potential aviation revolution – but the journey is far from over ^[82] ^[83].

Sources: Company filings and press releases ^[84] ^[85], Reuters and financial media ^[86] ^[87] ^[88], and industry analysis ^[89] ^[90] ^[91]. All data current as of early Oct 2025.