Rigetti (RGTI) Quantum Computing Stock Soars on Major Orders and Partnerships

Stock Rally: Rigetti’s shares climbed sharply in late Sept–early Oct 2025 (up ~84% in September) to new highs above $35 ^[1] ^[2]. Heavy trading on Oct 2 drove the stock 18.6% higher to $35.40 (closing price) and into pre-market $37.10 on Oct 3 ^[3].
New Quantum Orders: On Sept. 30 Rigetti announced it won two purchase orders (one from an Asian tech manufacturer, one from a California AI startup) for its 9‑qubit Novera quantum computers, totalling $5.7 million ^[4]. These systems (delivered in 2026) will be used for internal research (benchmarking, error-correction R&D) rather than direct profit‑making.
Air Force Contract: Mid-Sept 2025, Rigetti received a $5.8M three-year contract from the U.S. Air Force Research Lab (AFRL) to develop superconducting quantum networking technology (linking Rigetti’s qubit chips with optical networks), in collaboration with Dutch firm QphoX ^[5]. CEO Subodh Kulkarni noted that joining Rigetti’s qubit expertise with QphoX and AFRL’s capabilities is “an exciting opportunity to advance superconducting quantum networking” ^[6].
Major Partnerships: Rigetti inked a strategic collaboration with Taiwan’s Quanta Computer in Feb 2025. Both firms committed $100M+ investments (including Quanta’s $35M direct stake in Rigetti) to accelerate superconducting quantum R&D ^[7] ^[8]. Kulkarni said Quanta’s backing “will strengthen our leadership… and put us at the forefront of the quantum computing industry” ^[9]. In Sept 2025 Rigetti also signed an MOU with India’s C-DAC (advanced computing lab) to co-develop hybrid HPC-quantum systems, aiming to merge Rigetti’s qubits with India’s supercomputing expertise ^[10]. Kulkarni remarked this partnership unites “C-DAC’s leadership in HPC” with Rigetti’s quantum know-how to deliver “powerful… hybrid computing systems” ^[11].
Tech Milestones: In Aug 2025 Rigetti rolled out its Cepheus-1-36Q, a 36-qubit multi-chip quantum computer now available on its cloud service (and soon on Azure). This four-chip system halved Rigetti’s two-qubit error rates (to 99.5% fidelity) versus the prior generation ^[12]. Kulkarni highlighted that “quadrupling our chiplet count and significantly decreasing error rates is the clear path towards quantum advantage” ^[13]. The company plans a 100‑plus‑qubit system (chiplet‑based) by end of 2025 ^[14]. Also in Aug 2025, Montana State University became the first university to deploy a Rigetti on-premises quantum computer (a Novera system at MSU’s QCORE lab) ^[15].
Finances: In Q2 2025 (June 30 quarter) Rigetti reported just $1.8M in revenue and a $39.7M net loss ^[16]. Expenses are high as the company builds hardware; margins eroded from last year. However, Rigetti has a very strong balance sheet: following a $350M equity raise in Q2, it ended June with $571.6M cash and no debt ^[17] ^[18]. This cash runway lets it continue R&D without immediate revenue pressure.
Analyst Outlook: Wall Street remains polarized. Six analysts cover RGTI – all rate it “Buy,” but their price targets (around $20 on average) lag the current price. For example, Fintel reports a consensus one-year target of ~$22.27 (range $18.18–$36.75) ^[19]. B. Riley just raised its target from $19 to $35 (buy-rated) ^[20], arguing quantum tech is “rapidly advancing toward integrated capability and commerciality” ^[21]. In contrast, the average Street target is ~$19.7 ^[22] ^[23]. MarketBeat notes the recent rally pushed Rigetti’s market cap to ~$11.5B ^[24], far above current revenues. Some analysts caution the stock is pricing in future breakthroughs that may be years away, calling RGTI a “lottery ticket” play ^[25] ^[26].
Investor Sentiment: The sudden run-up has drawn broad attention. Retail buzz (even meme-stock style interest) in quantum stocks has surged ^[27] ^[28]. High trading volumes (~140M shares on Oct 2 ^[29]) and media coverage (e.g. Motley Fool, TipRanks, MarketBeat) emphasize the FOMO. Yet there are warning signs: insiders (including directors and executives) sold chunks of shares in Sept 2025 ^[30] ^[31], and the stock’s valuation (price-to-sales ~981×) is extremely stretched ^[32]. Investors will be watching upcoming news (like any Q3 results or new deals) closely.
What is Quantum Computing?: Quantum computers use qubits (quantum bits) instead of classical bits. A qubit can exist as 0 and 1 simultaneously (via superposition) ^[33], enabling certain calculations far faster than ordinary computers. Rigetti’s machines use superconducting qubits, which must be cooled near absolute zero to work. As Microsoft explains, a qubit “is the basic unit of information in quantum computing” and can represent multiple states at once ^[34]. This property allows quantum computers to tackle problems (like complex simulations or large-number factoring) in dramatically less time than today’s PCs for specific tasks ^[35]. Rigetti builds the full system stack (hence “full-stack”): from the chiplets and cryogenic refrigerator to the control electronics and software.

Rigetti’s Recent Developments

Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) has been very active in recent weeks. On Sept. 30 the company confirmed it booked two Novera™ system orders (total ~$5.7M) for 9‑qubit machines ^[36]. Rigetti did not disclose the buyers’ names, only saying one is “an Asian technology manufacturing company” and the other is a California AI/startup ^[37]. These Novera units are “upgradeable” (customers can later add qubits) and will be delivered in H1 2026 ^[38]. CEO Subodh Kulkarni noted that even though $5.7M is small relative to Rigetti’s multibillion-dollar market cap, this deal represents roughly 72% of the company’s annual revenue run-rate (Rigetti’s revenue was only $7.9M in the prior 12 months) ^[39]. Kulkarni called the deal evidence of “increased demand for on-premises quantum computing systems as the industry matures” ^[40].

Earlier in September Rigetti announced a memorable contract with the U.S. Air Force. The Air Force Research Lab awarded Rigetti (with partner QphoX) a three-year, $5.8M grant to work on quantum networking ^[41]. The goal is to link Rigetti’s superconducting qubits (which use microwave signals) with optical photons for long-distance quantum connections. Kulkarni said, “By joining Rigetti’s leadership in designing, fabricating, and operating superconducting qubits with QphoX’s…technology, and AFRL’s expertise…this is an exciting opportunity” to advance quantum networking ^[42]. This news (Sept 18) caused Rigetti’s stock to jump ~12.5% on that day ^[43].

Also this fall Rigetti moved deeper into international collaborations. On Sept. 2 it signed an MOU with India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) ^[44]. Under the MOU, Rigetti and C-DAC will jointly explore hybrid systems combining Rigetti’s superconducting processors with India’s high-performance computing expertise. Kulkarni explained this partnership “joins C-DAC’s leadership in high-performance computing (HPC) solutions with Rigetti’s expertise in superconducting quantum computing,” aiming to create “powerful and practical hybrid computing systems” ^[45].

These steps follow earlier 2025 moves. In Feb 2025 Rigetti teamed with Taiwan’s Quanta Computer (a global hardware maker) in a $200M+ strategic collaboration ^[46]. Each company committed over $100M over 5 years (including Quanta’s $35M equity investment) to accelerate superconducting quantum R&D ^[47]. Kulkarni praised Quanta’s backing: “Quanta’s investment in Rigetti will strengthen our leadership in this … market… and put us at the forefront of the quantum computing industry” ^[48].

On the educational front, August 2025 saw a major milestone: Montana State University became the first university to host an on-site Rigetti quantum system ^[49]. MSU’s Applied Quantum CORE (QCORE) facility installed a Novera 9‑qubit machine, intended for hands-on research in quantum algorithms and error correction. This highlights Rigetti’s push to expand beyond corporate/government labs into academia.

Stock Performance & Market Reaction

Rigetti’s stock (ticker RGTI) has been among the hottest in tech. After languishing near $15 for months, RGTI surged in mid-September and early Oct. 2025. Between Sep. 12 and Sep. 19 it jumped from about $16 to $28 ^[50] ^[51] (over +70% in a week), partly on the Air Force news and broader quantum hype. It hit $32 on Sept. 25, briefly pulled back, then exploded again on Oct. 2 to close at $35.40 (+18.6%) ^[52]. That day’s volume (~145 million shares) was roughly triple the prior average ^[53]. MarketBeat noted RGTI reached a 52-week high intraday at $35.81 on Oct 2 ^[54].

This volatility reflects strong investor excitement around quantum computing. As one analyst put it, many are treating Rigetti like a “lottery ticket on tomorrow’s technology” ^[55]. Social media and retail trading activity have spun up: TipRanks reported Rigetti up 160% in three months, with nine straight up-days in mid-Sept ^[56]. News outlets (Motley Fool, Nasdaq, MarketBeat, etc.) have published bullish stories on RGTI’s catalysts and future potential.

However, some signs of caution appeared. Despite the rally, Rigetti’s fundamentals are still weak. The company burns cash: Q2 operating expenses were ~$20M vs. just $1.8M sales ^[57]. Many analysts warn the stock valuation (and trading frenzy) far exceeds present business. For example, TipRanks notes RGTI’s price-to-sales ratio is ~981× – orders of magnitude above quantum peers ^[58]. MarketBeat highlighted that insiders (directors and officers) sold millions of dollars worth of shares in Sept 2025 ^[59], suggesting they may be cashing in on the high prices.

In sum, market sentiment is exuberant but mixed. Optimists point to Rigetti’s pioneering position and recent contracts. Skeptics note that analysts’ average price targets (~$20–$22 ^[60]) are far below the current ~$35–$37 trading range, implying the stock may be overheated. As one B. Riley analyst observed, quantum computing is “rapidly advancing toward…commerciality,” but this remains a future bet ^[61]. Investors will watch upcoming news (e.g. any Q3 earnings, new deals, tech demos) and judge if Rigetti can turn momentum into sustained growth.

Financial Results (Q2 2025)

Rigetti’s recent earnings (Q2 ended June 30, 2025) confirm a classic early-stage tech picture: very small revenue, big losses, large cash reserves. Total Q2 revenue was only $1.8 million ^[62] (down from $3.1M a year earlier). Net loss was $39.7M ^[63]. These losses include one-time accounting charges (e.g. $22.8M mark-to-market on warrants) and reflect heavy spending on R&D and expansion. Per-share, RGTI lost $0.05 (versus Street -$0.06), marginally beating expectations ^[64].

Importantly, Rigetti ended June with $571.6M in cash and equivalents ^[65] and zero debt. Much of this came from a Q2 equity offering raising ~$350M ^[66]. Management says this cash cushion should fund growth and “commercial scale-up” of its quantum hardware. Indeed, the Q2 press release emphasized the company’s strong balance sheet: “As of June 30, 2025, Rigetti had approximately $571.6M… with no debt, and is well positioned to support commercial scale-up” ^[67].

On guidance, Rigetti did not offer concrete numbers. (Quantum companies rarely do.) Instead, management’s outlook focuses on technology milestones: it reiterated it is on track to deliver an 84-qubit chip (Ankaa-1) soon and a 100+ qubit system by year-end ^[68]. The company had previously stated an ambition to reach “narrow quantum advantage” (solving a practical problem) within a few years. In the meantime, Wall Street consensus forecasts remain negative for 2025 EPS (~-0.34) ^[69], reflecting no profits for the foreseeable future.

Technology Highlights

Rigetti’s quantum hardware strategy centers on superconducting qubits and multi-chip “chiplet” designs. In plain terms, each qubit is a tiny superconducting circuit that can be in a 0/1 superposition (held at ~20 millikelvin). Rigetti integrates these into systems with dilution refrigerators and classical control electronics.

Cepheus-1-36Q Launch: In Aug 2025 Rigetti announced general availability of Cepheus-1-36Q, a 36-qubit, four-chiplet quantum processor, via its Rigetti Quantum Cloud Services ^[70]. This machine achieved a median two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.5% – roughly double the fidelity of its prior generation – and is currently deployed on Rigetti’s cloud (and soon on Microsoft Azure) ^[71]. Rigetti claims Cepheus-1-36Q is “the industry’s largest multi-chip quantum computer” to date ^[72]. CEO Kulkarni noted that halving error rates and quadrupling chip count is “the clear path towards quantum advantage” ^[73]. (The next step in their roadmap is a 100+ qubit system by end-2025 ^[74].)
Novera™ QPU: Rigetti’s Novera system is a smaller 9-qubit unit aimed at research labs. It uses an “Ankaa-class” architecture (a square lattice of qubits with tunable couplers) and plugs into custom cryogenic setups ^[75]. In Dec 2023 Rigetti introduced Novera for R&D customers. The recent sale of two Novera systems (above) indicates demand from industry and startups for hands-on quantum R&D platforms.
Quantum Networking: The AFRL contract focuses on linking qubit processors via optics. Rigetti and QphoX will work on “transducers” to convert Rigetti’s microwave qubit signals into optical photons and back, enabling long-distance quantum entanglement ^[76] ^[77]. This is still early-stage research, but success could pave the way to a quantum internet linking multiple quantum computers.

Analysts & Investment Outlook

Analysts remain divided on Rigetti’s investment merits. On one hand, all Wall Street analysts currently cover RGTI as a Buy (no sells), reflecting optimism about the quantum sector. Several brokerages recently raised their ratings/targets. For instance, B. Riley’s Craig Ellis upgraded his target to $35 (up from $19) in Sept 2025 ^[78], arguing quantum computing is moving faster toward commercialization. On the other hand, the average price target (~$19–$22 ^[79] ^[80]) is well below the current price, implying caution.

MarketBeat notes analysts have materially increased targets in the past month: B. Riley to $35, while others like Cantor Fitzgerald, Alliance Global, etc. have targets in the $15–$20 range ^[81]. The consensus 12-month target was about $19.71 ^[82], versus market prices now in the mid-$30s. A TipRanks columnist similarly observed that while “analysts are increasing their price targets,” the average 12-month target remains only ~$21.4 ^[83]. This gap reflects uncertainty: investors are pricing in a lot of future tech success, whereas many analysts remain skeptical of near-term fundamentals.

Other investment considerations: RGTI’s market cap is currently roughly $11–12 billion ^[84], making it one of the largest pure-quantum companies by market value. Yet its revenues are only in the single-digit millions. That disparity prompts worries about a “quantum bubble.” As one expert put it, Rigetti’s “valuation is based on tremendous growth assumptions” but “the shift to commercial quantum… hasn’t happened yet” ^[85].

Finally, insiders are watching the stock closely. Recent SEC filings (and MarketBeat reporting) show that two Rigetti directors sold significant stock (e.g. Thomas Iannotti sold 100,000 shares on Sept. 12; CFO Jeff Bertelsen sold 200,000 on Sept. 18) ^[86]. In total insiders unloaded over $3M of shares since July ^[87]. While insider selling isn’t uncommon for tax planning, the timing amid a share-price surge may give some investors pause.

Understanding Quantum Computing (Layman’s Terms)

Quantum computing can sound arcane, so here’s a simple analogy. A classical computer (like your PC or smartphone) processes information in bits – 0s and 1s. A quantum computer uses qubits, which can be 0 and 1 at the same time (this is called superposition). As Microsoft puts it, a qubit “is the basic unit of information in quantum computing” ^[88], analogous to a bit in traditional computing. But thanks to quantum physics, a qubit can hold an exponentially richer state. For example, 500 qubits can represent more combinations than 2^500 classical bits ^[89].

This extra power means certain problems (like factoring large numbers, simulating molecules, or searching big databases) could be solved far faster on a quantum computer than on any supercomputer. However, qubits are very fragile and need special conditions: Rigetti’s qubits are tiny superconducting circuits kept near absolute zero ^[90] ^[91]. Rigetti’s “full-stack” approach means they build everything from the qubit chips (at their in-house Fab-1 foundry) to the dilution fridge to the software that controls the machine. In short, Rigetti is trying to make a usable quantum computer system that researchers or companies can plug into their existing labs.

In summary: Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is at the forefront of the quantum computing race. As of early Oct 2025 it boasts eye-catching share gains fueled by fresh contracts ($5.7M orders, $5.8M USAF grant) and major partnerships (Quanta, India’s C-DAC, MSU). The company continues to advance its technology (new 36-qubit chip, roadmap to 100+ qubits) and has a strong cash war chest. Nonetheless, it remains unprofitable, with revenues measured in millions against a $10+ billion market cap. Analysts and investors are divided: some laud Rigetti as a leader in tomorrow’s tech, while others warn the stock reflects high hopes more than current reality.

Sources: Rigetti’s press releases and filings ^[92] ^[93]; financial/news outlets (Motley Fool/Nasdaq, DataCenterDynamics, MarketBeat, TipRanks) ^[94] ^[95] ^[96] ^[97]; industry analyses ^[98] ^[99]; and explanatory resources (e.g. Microsoft on qubits ^[100]). All facts are current as of Oct. 3, 2025.