- Big Rally on News: Rumble (NASDAQ: RUM) stock surged sharply on Oct.2–3 after announcing new partnerships. Shares jumped ~12–18% on Oct.2 alone [1] [2]. By pre-market Oct.3, RUM traded around $8.3 (up ~13% over the prior close of $7.39 [3]).
- AI Partnership: On Oct.2 Rumble unveiled a strategic deal with AI answer-engine Perplexity, integrating its search tools into Rumble for better video discovery [4] [5]. CEO Chris Pavlovski called it “thrilled to partner with Perplexity” to launch the new Comet AI browser to Rumble’s audience [6].
- Crypto Tie-In: Rumble will distribute Tether’s new USDT-USAT stablecoin to its user base. Tether (which now owns ~48% of Rumble after a $775M 2024 investment) said Rumble’s ~51 million users will help capture the US market for the regulated USAT token [7] [8]. Pavlovski dubbed the Tether deal a “rocket pack” for Rumble’s next growth phase [9].
- Earnings & Cash: In Q2 2025 (ended June), Rumble earned $25.1M revenue (+12% YoY) [10], but MAUs fell to 51M (from 59M in Q1) as election-content waned [11] [12]. GAAP net loss was $30.2M (EPS –$0.12) [13], and adjusted EBITDA loss was $20.5M (improved $8.2M YoY) [14]. The firm ended Q2 with ~$306M in cash + crypto, a war-chest boosted by the Tether investment [15].
- Analyst Outlook: Wall Street remains cautiously optimistic. Two analysts (Maxim, Wedbush) cover RUM: Tom Forte (Maxim) reiterates a Buy with a $20 target [16] [17], while Wedbush’s Scott Devitt has a neutral $8 target [18]. Overall consensus is “Moderate Buy,” with a 12-month average target near $14 (implying ~90% upside) [19] [20].
- Political Profile: Rumble is known as a “free speech” alternative to YouTube, favored by right-leaning users. A Pew survey finds ~76% of Rumble’s news audience identifies as Republican/lean Republican [21]. The platform openly markets itself as immune to “cancel culture,” and CEO Pavlovski has publicly pressed for probes into Big Tech censorship [22]. Rumble even powers former President Trump’s media: Truth Social moved to Rumble Cloud in 2022 (its “first significant customer”) [23]. These ties keep RUM in political headlines.
- Competition & Industry: Rumble competes in online video against giants like YouTube (Alphabet) and niches like TikTok. Its unique free-speech branding and conservative user base differentiate it, but scaling is challenging. It also runs a cloud services unit (Rumble Cloud) competing with AWS/GCP for niche clients (e.g. NFL’s Buccaneers, Tron DAO) [24]. Analysts note RUM currently trades at modest multiples (e.g. very low P/E versus peers) [25], but say its valuation may rise if growth resumes.
U.S. Market Open (Oct 3, 2025)
U.S. markets opened fairly flat on Friday Oct.3. The tech-heavy Nasdaq and S&P 500 showed only minor gains after Thursday’s session. In this environment, Rumble’s stock continued to climb on its recent news. Pre-market trading showed RUM around $8.30 on Oct.3, up roughly 13% from Thursday’s close [26]. (For comparison, MarketBeat data show RUM closed at $7.39 on Oct.2 and was ~$8.28 in extended trading [27].) In short, RUM is riding a strong post-earnings/partnership wave as Friday’s trading begins.
Rumble Stock Performance (Price Moves)
On Oct.2, RUM closed at $7.39 [28] (up about 3.4% for the day), then exploded higher in after-hours trading. News wires report RUM “soared” ~18% in after-hours on Oct.2 [29], reaching roughly $8.40 by late evening (an ~13% move from the regular close) [30] [31]. This momentum carried into Oct.3: TipRanks notes RUM “jumped 13.5% in Friday’s pre-market trading” on the Perplexity deal [32]. Overall, RUM is now trading in the low-$8 range, significantly above the ~$5.80 level seen around June 2025 (before the Tether investment and earnings). Daily volumes have spiked, reflecting investor interest.
Key News & Partnerships (Past Week)
Perplexity AI Deal (Oct 2): Rumble announced a tie-up with Perplexity, an AI answer engine. This will embed Perplexity’s AI search into Rumble’s video platform for smarter content discovery [33]. As part of the deal, Rumble created a bundled subscription combining Rumble Premium with Perplexity Pro, and Perplexity agreed to promote its new “Comet” AI browser to Rumble’s audience [34] [35]. Rumble’s CEO Pavlovski praised the partnership: “We are thrilled to partner with Perplexity… excited that Perplexity is tapping Rumble’s audience to drive their launch of Comet” [36]. Perplexity’s Chief Business Officer echoed that AI search can “help users discover relevant content in an increasingly crowded media landscape” [37]. Investors are betting this AI move will boost user engagement (and thus ad/subscription revenue) on Rumble.
Tether & Stablecoin USAT (Oct 1): Bloomberg Law reported that Tether, the issuer of USDT stablecoin, plans to distribute its upcoming US-regulated stablecoin (“USAT”) via Rumble [38]. Tether’s CEO Paolo Ardoino said in an interview that Rumble’s millions of users will help capture market share for USAT in the US [39]. (Tether’s $775M 2024 investment gave it ~48% of Rumble’s stock, so this extends their partnership into crypto.) CEO Pavlovski described this alliance as providing a “rocket pack” to Rumble’s next phase [40], while Rumble’s SEC filings hint the company may use crypto initiatives to diversify revenue. In addition, Rumble is building crypto payment features: it recently partnered with MoonPay to enable its upcoming Rumble Wallet (Q3 launch) [41].
Other recent deals (from the Q2 filings): Rumble has been striking partnerships to boost monetization and growth. In August, it inked a licensing and advertising deal with Cumulus Media [42], and partnered with Tron (TRON DAO) and the NFL’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers for blockchain and infrastructure projects [43]. These aren’t immediate catalysts this week, but they highlight Rumble’s strategy of pursuing ad, subscription, cloud, and crypto revenue streams.
Q2 2025 Financial Results
Rumble reported Q2 2025 earnings on Aug 11, 2025. Revenue was $25.1 million, up 12% from Q2 2024 [44]. However, this missed street estimates of ~$26.8M [45]. Rumble’s net loss widened to $30.2M (GAAP), or –$0.12 per share [46], as heavy spending continued. The company emphasized rising ARPU(average revenue per user) – it jumped to $0.42 in Q2 (a 24% increase over Q1 2025) [47] [48] – driven by higher subscription and licensing sales. This helped partially offset a weak ad market: ad revenue fell ~$3.7M YoY while subscription/licensing grew ~$4.4M [49]. As a result, Rumble is shifting toward subscription and other monetization even as overall user engagement drops.
Indeed, Rumble’s user metrics showed a decline: Q2 MAUs fell to 51 million from 59M in Q1 [50]. (The peak was 68M in late 2024 during the U.S. election cycle [51].) Management attributed the drop to the usual election-driven ebb of political news and commentary. CEO Pavlovski spun the news positively, saying “we proved the stickiness of our platform with 51 million MAUs” [52]. But the trend raises questions about whether Rumble can grow its audience in quieter times.
On costs, Rumble cut its content/programming spend by $10.1M vs Q2 2024 [53]. Still, R&D and marketing remained high – Rumble increased sales/marketing spend 26% YoY, partly funded by the new Tether capital [54]. Adjusted EBITDA loss improved to –$20.5M (vs –$28.7M expected) [55]. The balance sheet, however, is very strong: as of June 30, 2025, Rumble had $306.4M total liquidity [56] (cash of $283.8M plus ~$22.6M of bitcoin). This is up from just $114M cash at end-2024, thanks to Tether’s investment [57].
Looking ahead, Rumble’s next earnings (Q3) are expected in November 2025 (Nasdaq’s calendar shows an estimate of Nov.11, 2025). Analysts will watch if the AI and crypto partnerships translate into higher subscription growth, and whether advertising revenue stabilizes. The cost-cutting measures should help, but Rumble will still need user growth or new revenue lines to justify its valuation.
Analyst Commentary & Forecasts
Wall Street analysts remain generally bullish on RUM’s long-term potential. Currently only two analysts cover the stock. Tom Forte of Maxim Group reiterated a Buy with a $20 price target (implying ~95% upside) [58] [59]. Scott Devitt of Wedbush has a Neutral rating with a $8 target [60]. As of Oct.3, the consensus is one Buy and one Hold, which TipRanks sums up as a “Moderate Buy” stance [61] [62].
The average 12-month price target among analysts is roughly $14 [63] [64], indicating a potential ~90% gain from current levels. (TipRanks lists a wider survey of 4 analysts averaging ~$12.17 [65], but that includes older data.) In any case, targets range from about $8 (more conservative) to $20 (bullish). Analysts note that Rumble’s valuation is very low compared to peers: e.g. its P/E is effectively negative while companies like Paycom trade at ~27× [66]. If Rumble grows out of losses, multiples could expand.
Several experts cite Rumble’s unique market position as a factor. As one TipRanks summary explains, Forte likes Rumble’s “value proposition as a neutral platform” when concerns about YouTube moderation are high [67]. Forte emphasizes Rumble’s free-speech stance and its lawsuits against perceived government overreach, saying these moves “prioritize user and creator interests” [68]. On Rumble’s earnings call, Pavlovski echoed this narrative by framing Rumble as protecting an “independent infrastructure … designed to be immune to cancel culture” [69]. In short, bullish analysts believe Rumble can carve out a long-term niche, though they warn growth may be spotty until broad mainstream adoption.
Industry & Competition
Rumble occupies a niche in the crowded online video space. Its main competitor remains YouTube (Alphabet), which dominates video sharing globally. Unlike YouTube, Rumble advertises itself as “immune to cancel culture” and attracts creators banned or demonetized elsewhere [70] [71]. Other smaller rivals include platforms like Vimeo, BitChute and Odysee, but none have YouTube’s scale. On the short-form front, TikTok’s and Instagram’s rise has drawn some attention, but Rumble is more like a user-upload platform than a viral-video app.
Rumble also runs a cloud computing business (Rumble Cloud), which technically competes with Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, etc. Its strategy is not to challenge them head-on, but to win niche clients. For example, Rumble has signed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and tech projects like Tron for blockchain/cloud work [72]. Critically, one of Rumble Cloud’s marquee customers is Truth Social (Trump’s social network) [73]. In 2022, Truth Social moved its sites to Rumble Cloud, becoming Rumble’s “first significant customer” in cloud [74]. These partnerships help justify Rumble Cloud’s existence and provide revenue outside of advertising.
By industry metrics, Rumble is still very small: H2 2025 revenue (~$25M per quarter) is tiny next to YouTube’s $8+ billion quarterly ad business. Most comparisons (like MarketBeat’s analysis) group Rumble with mid-cap software firms (Paycom, SailPoint, Wix, etc.), often showing Rumble has lower top-line and more losses [75]. In any case, the key for Rumble is diversifying beyond ad sales. Its moves into subscriptions, licensing, crypto payments and cloud all aim to broaden revenue. If successful, Rumble could trade closer to higher-growth tech peers; if not, it may remain a speculative microcap.
Political & Social Media Context
Rumble’s public profile is highly political. Its ethos is explicitly pro–free speech and anti-censorship [76]. This appeals to a largely conservative user base: a Pew survey found 76% of regular Rumble news consumers identify as Republican-leaning [77]. Prominent conservative media figures and politicians (including the late Gen. Michael Flynn and others) have partnered with Rumble. The company’s leadership has leveraged that niche: Rumble raised venture capital from known conservative backers (for example, a major funding round included tech moguls allied with Senator JD Vance) [78].
These ties place Rumble at the center of debates over Big Tech and media bias. The CEO has frequently appeared on outlets like Fox Business, demanding scrutiny of “Big Tech censorship” (e.g. the reported suppression of political content) [79]. Rumble itself has sued Google, alleging antitrust and ad-market abuses. (In May 2025, a federal judge dismissed Rumble’s $2B antitrust suit against Google on procedural grounds [80]; Rumble is also pursuing a separate suit over Google’s ad practices [81].) Regardless of legal outcomes, these actions reinforce Rumble’s image as taking on Silicon Valley gatekeepers.
On the flip side, Rumble faces criticism that its content can harbor conspiracy or extremist material (as have other platforms). It has moderation policies but markets itself as lighter-touch than YouTube [82]. So far, regulators have not singled out Rumble the way they have bigger firms; however, its crypto tie-up (Tether’s USAT) may draw SEC/Federal scrutiny if regulators act on new stablecoin rules. For now, political discourse seems to buoy Rumble’s brand and stock more than hinder it.
What’s Next for Rumble?
In the coming months, key questions are whether Rumble can translate newsflow into growth. The Perplexity AI integration could improve user engagement (and thus advertising), but it remains to be seen how quickly that pays off. Rumble’s heavy cash position (over $300M) gives it a cushion to keep investing and survive losses. The rollout of the USAT stablecoin and the Rumble Wallet could open new payment/revenue streams, especially internationally.
Analysts will also watch for any pickup in advertising as the economic environment evolves, and any bounce in users from external events (e.g. political/cultural flashpoints). Some investors are banking that a midterm election cycle (2026) or other global events could drive new interest in Rumble’s news/commentary content. Others caution that without a clear growth catalyst, Rumble may remain a volatile, high-risk stock.
For now, RUM stock reflects a mix of speculative excitement and strategic questions. Its recent partnership news and strong balance sheet have investors enthused, but the company must deliver user growth and revenue diversification to justify ambitious price targets. In short, RUM is one to watch closely: it moves on market sentiment as much as fundamentals.
Sources: Corporate filings and press releases [83] [84]; Yahoo/Investing/Benzinga news [85] [86]; Nasdaq/Motley Fool analysis [87] [88]; analyst data (MarketBeat, TipRanks) [89] [90]; research insights (TipRanks) [91] [92]; demographic studies (Pew) [93]; Reuters reporting [94]; Washington Post profile [95] [96].
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