Iris Energy Rockets to Record High Amid AI Mining Frenzy

Ticker: IREN (NASDAQ) – market cap $12.8B ^[1].
Current Price (Oct 3, 2025): ~$49.00 (up ~4.2% intraday) ^[2], near a fresh all-time high.
2025 Performance: Explosive gains – roughly +66% in 1 month, +180% in 3 months, +~460–500% in 1 year ^[3] ^[4]. (Hit $49.44 on Oct 3) ^[5].
Recent News: Expanded AI cloud with 12.4k new GPUs (doubling fleet to ~23k) ^[6]; strong FY2025 results (revenue $501M, net income $87M) ^[7]; analyst targets raised (e.g. $50, $75, $82) even as JPMorgan warns of high valuation ($24 PT) ^[8].
Mining & Growth: Current Bitcoin mining capacity ~50 EH/s (5× FY2024) ^[9]; new data-center capacity 810 MW ^[10]; 2.9 GW contracted green power (up 35% YoY) ^[11].
Earnings Snapshot: FY2025 revenue $501.0 M (+168% YoY) ^[12], Adj. EBITDA $269.7 M (+395% YoY) ^[13]; Q4 EPS $0.19 (beat $0.17 est) on $187.3 M rev ^[14].
Valuation: Trades at P/E ≈107× (TTM) ^[15] vs peers Marathon (~17×) ^[16], reflecting growth premium.
Peers: Marathon Digital (MARA) cap ~$7.0B ^[17] (52,850 BTC held ^[18], ~60 EH/s hash rate ^[19]); Riot Platforms (RIOT) cap ~$7.5B ^[20] (19,287 BTC ^[21], ~32 EH/s ^[22]). Iris’s market cap and stock gains now far exceed these peers.
Outlook: Bullish catalysts include growing Bitcoin price, accelerating AI cloud revenue (target $200–250M by Dec’25 ^[23]), and new 2 GW Texas site. Bear risks include high capital needs and stretched valuation.

1. Stock Price and Recent Trend

As of Oct 3, 2025 trading, Iris Energy (IREN) is near $49.00 per share, up about 4.2% intraday ^[24]. The stock closed Sept 30 around $46.93 ^[25] and hit an all-time peak of $49.44 on Oct 3 ^[26]. Over the past month, IREN has surged +66.7%, and +179.6% over 3 months, dwarfing its peers (Marathon, Riot) and the S&P 500. The 1-year gain is roughly +460–500% ^[27] ^[28] – turning every $10K into ~$56K. Trading volume remains high (~16.2M on Oct 3) ^[29]. The chart is an eye-popping uptrend from its ~$5 low a year ago to ~$49 today ^[30] ^[31]. Analysts note the stock is now “overbought” (RSI high) ^[32], but the momentum has been undeniable.

2. Recent News & Developments

All-Time High & AI Pivot: News on Oct 3 highlighted IREN’s stock topping $49.44 ^[33]. Crucially, Iris announced a massive AI expansion: it added 12,400 GPUs (NVIDIA and AMD) to its fleet, doubling AI Cloud capacity to ~23,000 GPUs ^[34]. Management is targeting >$200M–$250M annualized AI cloud revenue by year-end with ~10.9k GPUs already deployed ^[35]. This pivot to AI/data centers (beyond Bitcoin mining) has drawn fresh investor interest.

Analyst Updates: The AI push spurred bullish analyst revisions. For example, Compass Point raised its target to $50 (Buy), Sanford Bernstein to $75, and Roth/MKM to $82 ^[36]. However, JPMorgan warned that the lofty share price already factors in ambitious growth and downgraded IREN to Underweight (target $24) ^[37]. Recent consensus shows overwhelming Buy-side sentiment: 11 Buys, 2 Holds, 1 Sell, with an average PT ~$47.7 ^[38].

Other News: Earlier in September, Iris appointed Anthony Lewis as CFO (Sep 8) and reported monthly operations updates (e.g. Aug 2025) ^[39]. The company’s own press in late Aug confirmed record FY2025 results (see next section). Industry media also noted IRA’s transition from ASICs to liquid-cooled GPU data centers as a differentiator.

3. Financials & Operations

Earnings: Iris’s FY2025 (year to June 30, 2025) was breakout. Revenue hit $501.0M – a +168% YoY jump ^[40]. Net income was $86.9M (from a prior loss), and Adj. EBITDA was $269.7M (up +395% YoY) ^[41]. Q4 FY25 alone saw $187.3M revenue and $0.19 EPS, modestly above consensus ^[42]. The top line was driven by higher Bitcoin prices and more mining output, plus the beginnings of AI cloud leasing.

Mining Capacity: The company now operates about 810 MW of data-center capacity (up 212% YoY) ^[43], with contracted renewable power ~2,910 MW (+35% YoY). The installed Bitcoin mining capacity reached 50 EH/s (exahashes/second) – roughly 5× year-ago levels ^[44]. These figures imply Iris is among the world’s largest Bitcoin miners (Marathon is similar scale).

AI & GPUs: As part of the strategy, Iris is rapidly building an AI cloud business. Current GPU deployment stands at ~10.9k (from NVIDIA Blackwell GB300s) ^[45], and expansion plans allow up to ~60k GPUs across sites. Liquid-cooled data centers (e.g. Childress, Sweetwater) are under construction to handle the GPU power density ^[46] ^[47]. The 23k GPU figure (Aug’25) is now 1.9k + 12.4k more = 14.3k, likely updated by now.

Energy & Infrastructure: By Q4, Iris secured 2.91 GW of renewable power and 1,800+ acres for future builds ^[48] ^[49]. A 750 MW Texas project (Sweetwater) is the centerpiece. The balance sheet also shows $0 debt-to-equity ~0.53 and high current ratio (~4.3) ^[50], indicating healthy liquidity as they finance growth.

4. Analysts and Targets

Wall Street is mixed but generally upbeat on Iris’s growth story. As noted, multiple shops raised price targets on the AI news ^[51]. A compilation of recent calls shows: Macquarie $55 (Sept 29) ^[52], Arete $78 (Sept 24) ^[53], Roth $82 (Sept 23) ^[54], and long-standing targets like Canaccord $42 or BTIG $32 earlier in 2025 ^[55]. The one deep skeptic is JPMorgan ($24 PT) calling the stock richly valued ^[56].

Most analysts still rate IREN a Buy/Outperform. MarketBeat reports 11 Buys vs 1 Sell ^[57], and Nasdaq analyst consensus (Oct 3) is a Buy consensus. Sentiment reflects confidence that Iris’s vertical integration (mining + AI data centers) will pay off.

From Iris’s own management calls, the tone is bullish: they highlight the “breakout year” FY25 and predict multi-year growth in AI services ^[58]. Some caveats are raised about scaling fast enough to meet demand and the high capital intensity. But broadly, forecasts assume continued revenue expansion (Iris guided to ~$1.25B run-rate including AI by late 2025 ^[59]) and sustained Bitcoin profitability.

5. Industry Comparison

Marathon (MARA): A leading US miner, Marathon’s market cap (~$7.0B ^[60]) is about half of Iris’s. Marathon holds ~52,850 BTC ^[61] and has ~60 EH/s of mining power (pool only) ^[62]. Marathon’s Q3 2025 saw 736 BTC mined (9/2025) ^[63]. Marathon trades at a modest P/E (~16.9× ^[64]) since it’s currently profitable, whereas Iris’s P/E is sky-high (~107×) ^[65] reflecting expectations of far higher growth. Both miners benefit from Bitcoin cycles, but Iris’s focus on AI gives it a different profile.

Riot Platforms (RIOT): Market cap ~$7.5B ^[66]. Riot reported 445 BTC produced in Sep2025 ^[67] and holds ~19,287 BTC ^[68]. Operating hash was ~32 EH/s (Sept avg) ^[69]. Riot’s stock is up ~+144% in the past year (AAII data) and trades at elevated multiples (FY25 P/S >10, P/B ~2 ^[70]). Like Iris, Riot is expanding with large Texas/KY sites, but Iris currently has higher valuation due to faster growth in revenue and margins (Iris Q4 net margin ~33% ^[71] vs peers typically lower).

Other smaller miners (Hut 8, Bitfarms, Core Scientific) have not seen gains as dramatic. Iris’s growth rates and push into AI set it apart. In short, Iris is at the high-growth, high-multiple end of the Bitcoin-mining space.

6. Forward Outlook & Risks

Growth Drivers: If Bitcoin price maintains its momentum, all miners benefit from higher coin revenues. Iris additionally looks to turn GPUs into a major profit center – management’s goal of >10k GPUs online by year-end (with $200–250M AI ARR) ^[72]. Long term, Iris aims to capture the full AI infrastructure market (from shells to cloud services) ^[73]. Continued expansion of renewables-backed power contracts (e.g. Sweetwater 2GW) will underpin massive capacity growth through 2026.

Analyst Forecasts: The consensus target (median ~$41–48) is below the current stock, reflecting some cautiousness (JP Morgan’s cut skews the median down) ^[74]. That said, targets up to $75–82 by bullish firms suggest the stock could go higher if execution stays on plan. Technical models (cited by some AI-based stock forecasters) even project parabolic moves (one model put a 90% probability of doubling or more in 3 months ^[75], though such models should be taken with a grain of salt).

Risks: Execution risk is nontrivial. Iris’s strategies require continuous financing – building data centers and buying GPUs is capital-intensive. Inflation or rising interest rates could slow funding. Also, if Bitcoin prices fall, mining revenue could dip (though Iris has 50 EH/s, not trivial but not unassailable either). Regulatory risk (e.g. crypto rules, ESG scrutiny on energy use) is another wild card in the space.

Summary: Iris Energy sits at the intersection of the crypto and AI booms, and recent performance underscores the opportunity. The stock’s rapid rise has made it one of the market’s hottest plays, but valuations are extreme. Investors should weigh the potential for continued outsized growth (supported by record results and pipeline) against the risk that lofty expectations and heavy capex needs may temper near-term returns.

Sources: Official filings and press releases ^[76] ^[77]; finance news outlets (Investing.com, MarketBeat) ^[78] ^[79]; stock data aggregators (INDmoney) ^[80] ^[81]; and peer company reports ^[82] ^[83]. All figures are as reported by the dates above.