| Metric | Data/Comment | Sources |
|---|---|---|
| Latest trading price (6 Oct 2025) | Orla Mining’s stock (NYSE: ORLA) closed at $16.40 per share on 6 Oct 2025. Investing.com’s historical table shows that on 6 Oct 2025 the shares opened at $14.59, hit a high of $16.40, a low of $14.57 and closed at $16.40, representing a 14.61 % gain on the day [1]. | Investing.com [2] |
| Pre‑market price (19 Sep 2025) | On 19 Sept 2025, Yahoo Finance’s summary page showed a pre‑market price of $10.75 at 5:48 am (EDT) after the previous close of $10.22. This illustrates how quickly the stock rallied as gold prices surged. | Yahoo Finance |
| 52‑week range | MarketBeat noted that the shares traded between $3.81 and $12.91 over the previous year [3]. The Canadian listing traded between C$5.36 and C$17.78 [4]. | MarketBeat [5] [6] |
| Market capitalisation & ratios | In early October the company’s market capitalisation was about US$3.34 billion [7]. The quick ratio was 0.66, the current ratio 0.85 and debt‑to‑equity 0.76 [8]. MarketBeat’s Canadian article reported a P/E ratio of 204.43 and a higher liquidity profile owing to the Musselwhite acquisition [9]. | MarketBeat [10] [11] |
| Analyst rating consensus (Mar 2025) | According to MarketBeat’s analyst consensus, six analysts cover Orla: one hold, four buy and one strong buy recommendation, giving the stock an overall “Buy” rating [12]. The average price target is C$14.75, with a high of C$18.50 and a low of C$8.75 [13]. | MarketBeat [14] |
| Latest analyst actions | Desjardins raised its FY‑2025 earnings‑per‑share (EPS) forecast from US$0.61 to US$0.70 and expects US$1.22 EPS in FY‑2026 [15]. CIBC reiterated an outperform rating with a $14.50 price target [16], while Stifel Nicolaus trimmed its target from C$19 to C$18.50 but maintained a “Buy” rating [17]. TipRanks reported the most recent rating as Hold with a C$15 target [18]. | MarketBeat [19] [20], TipRanks [21] |
| Major 2025 events | 1) Oct 6 – two‑kilometre extension discovered at Musselwhite [22]. 2) Sept 23 – Scott Langley resigned from the board after Newmont divested its entire stake [23]. 3) Sept 17 – release of 2024 sustainability report highlighting strong ESG metrics [24]. 4) Aug 13 – U.S. Bureau of Land Management announced the Notice of Intent for the South Railroad project [25]. 5) Aug 11 – Orla posted record Q2 results with production surging to 77,811 oz and revenue tripling [26]. 6) Aug 5 – the company provided an update on an uncontrolled pit‑wall event at Camino Rojo that cut FY‑2025 guidance [27]. | Company news releases |
| Economic backdrop | Gold prices broke through $3,900/oz in early October 2025 amid expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical tensions【607318432880491†L182-L245】. Analysts at J.P. Morgan forecast gold to average $3,675/oz in Q4 2025 and potentially overshoot $4,000/oz by mid‑2026 [28]. This environment has provided a significant tailwind for Orla and other gold producers. | Reuters【607318432880491†L182-L245】, J.P. Morgan Research [29] |
Overview of Orla Mining
Orla Mining Ltd is a Canadian precious‑metals producer listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and on the New York Stock Exchange. The company operates the Camino Rojo open‑pit gold‑silver mine in Zacatecas, Mexico, owns and operates the high‑grade underground Musselwhite gold mine in Ontario (acquired from Newmont in May 2025) and is advancing the South Railroad project in Nevada. These assets give Orla a diversified production base across North America. As of October 2025 the company has roughly 342 million shares outstanding and is led by President and CEO Jason Simpson.
Stock performance in 2025
Orla’s share price has been on a tear in 2025. After trading around $4–$5 per share in late 2024, the stock climbed steadily alongside rising gold prices and surged following the completion of the Musselwhite acquisition. The stock closed at $16.40 on 6 Oct 2025 – more than triple its price a year earlier [30]. The rally accelerated after gold broke above $3,600/oz in September; on 19 Sept the share price was $10.75 in pre‑market trading. MarketBeat lists a 52‑week range of $3.81 to $12.91 [31], illustrating how steeply the shares have appreciated.
Volume has also increased substantially; the Investing.com data show that on 6 Oct 2025 the stock traded 1.17 million shares, reflecting heightened interest [32]. The company’s market capitalisation surpassed US$3 billion [33]. This performance has been supported by surging gold prices and investors’ appetite for producers with strong growth pipelines.
Major News and Developments up to 6 October 2025
1. Discovery of a two‑kilometre extension at Musselwhite (6 Oct 2025)
On 6 Oct 2025 Orla announced that exploration drilling identified a two‑kilometre extension of mineralisation at the Musselwhite mine in northern Ontario [34]. The company reported high‑grade intercepts such as 4.1 m at 15.1 g/t gold, 10.1 m at 27.2 g/t and 15.7 m at 6.89 g/t [35]. Senior vice‑president of exploration Sylvain Guerard said the results confirm that the Musselwhite trend continues well beyond current resource boundaries and could extend the mine’s life [36]. The exploration program was about 65 % complete and aims to replace reserves, expand resources and identify satellite deposits [37].
Analysts view the discovery as highly positive. TipRanks noted that the extension could “extend the mine’s life and boost production,” although the most recent analyst rating on the platform was Hold with a C$15 price target [38]. The discovery reinforces the strategic importance of Musselwhite, which has produced more than 6 million ounces of gold and currently hosts 1.5 million ounces of proven and probable reserves according to Orla [39].
2. Board changes following Newmont’s exit (23 Sept 2025)
On 23 Sept 2025 Scott Langley, the director nominated by former shareholder Newmont Corporation, resigned from Orla’s board [40]. The resignation followed Newmont’s complete sale of its 43 million‑share (≈13 %) stake in Orla for $10.14 per share a week earlier [41]. Board chair Chuck Jeannes thanked Langley for his contributions and said no further changes were anticipated [42]. The divestment allows Orla greater independence while freeing Newmont to focus on its own capital priorities. Orla’s CEO Jason Simpson recognised Newmont for its support and reiterated that Orla remains focused on creating value through its projects [43].
3. Release of 2024 sustainability report (17 Sept 2025)
Orla issued its annual sustainability report summarising environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance for 2024. Highlights included:
- GHG intensity of 0.24 t CO₂e per ounce of gold equivalent produced and water intensity of 0.12 m³ per tonne mined at the Camino Rojo mine [44].
- 100 % water reuse at Camino Rojo and nearly $9.6 million spent on local suppliers [45].
- Company‑wide, 58 % of employees at site were hired locally and the company introduced four new environmental standards [46].
- A quarter of corporate compensation goals were linked to ESG metrics, all of which were achieved [47].
Chief sustainability officer Silvana Costa said the report aims to build transparency and accountability while ensuring that growth aligns with responsible mining practices [48].
4. South Railroad project advances through permitting (13 Aug 2025)
The U.S. Bureau of Land Management issued the Notice of Intent for Orla’s South Railroad project on 13 Aug 2025. This milestone initiates the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) review and the preparation of an environmental impact statement [49]. Orla expects permitting to take about 12 months, positioning the project for construction once permits are received [50]. CEO Jason Simpson described the project as a “key pillar” of Orla’s strategy to achieve 500 koz/year of gold production and thanked regulators for moving quickly [51]. South Railroad is a low‑capex, heap‑leach project on the Carlin Trend in Nevada.
5. Record Q2 2025 results and guidance update (11 Aug 2025)
Orla reported record second‑quarter results on 11 Aug 2025. Key metrics include:
- Gold production: 77,811 oz (a record, due largely to the Musselwhite acquisition) [52].
- Average realised gold price: US$3,251/oz, benefitting from high spot gold prices [53].
- Revenue: US$263.7 million – more than three times Q2 2024 [54].
- Net income: US$48.2 million; adjusted earnings: US$64.2 million [55].
- All‑in sustaining cost (AISC): US$1,421/oz [56]; cash cost: US$1,065/oz [57].
- Cash & debt: US$215.4 million in cash and US$420 million in debt [58].
During the quarter, Orla spent US$32.3 million on exploration and development and paid down US$30 million on its revolving credit facility [59]. CEO Jason Simpson emphasised that the quarter demonstrates the company’s transformation into a multi‑mine producer but that a pit‑wall event at Camino Rojo required a downward revision to guidance [60]. Investors reacted positively to the strong production numbers but remained cautious about rising costs and integration risks.
6. Pit‑wall event at Camino Rojo and guidance cut (5 Aug 2025)
A significant rain event caused an uncontrolled movement of the north pit wall at Camino Rojo on 23 July 2025. Orla reported that there were no injuries or equipment damage [61]. In an update released on 5 Aug 2025 the company said a geotechnical assessment determined that a 50–80 m pushback would be required, involving the removal of about 9.0 million tonnes of material [62]. This oxidized material has an average grade of 0.74 g/t gold and will be crushed and processed. Consequently, Orla lowered its 2025 consolidated production guidance from 280–300 koz to 265–285 koz and raised its AISC guidance from $1,300–1,500/oz to $1,350–1,550/oz [63]. The Camino Rojo portion of the guidance was cut to 95–105 koz while the Musselwhite guidance remained unchanged [64].
CEO Jason Simpson said safety was the primary concern and that the company acted quickly to mitigate the situation and protect personnel [65]. Despite the temporary setback, the company maintains that the removed material will still contribute to production once processed.
Financial Review and Projections
Revenue, profitability and cash flow
Orla’s revenue surged to US$263.7 million in Q2 2025, up from roughly US$84 million a year earlier [66]. The jump reflects consolidation of Musselwhite and higher gold prices. Net income of US$48.2 million and adjusted earnings of US$64.2 million represented robust profitability [67]. Cash flow from operations before working‑capital changes reached US$102.7 million [68]. The company ended the quarter with US$215.4 million in cash and US$420 million of long‑term debt [69].
The Q2 results highlight strong margins; however, the acquisition of Musselwhite temporarily increased the company’s leverage and capital expenditures. Analysts at Edgen.tech note that the Musselwhite acquisition led to a 140 % increase in output and that Orla aims to return to a net‑cash position by 2027 [70]. The same analysis argues that Orla remains undervalued relative to peers, citing a price target around $12.96 and emphasising that the stock trades at a discount despite sector tailwinds [71].
Guidance and long‑term growth
Following the pit‑wall event, Orla’s updated 2025 guidance calls for 265–285 koz of gold production with an AISC of US$1,350–1,550/oz [72]. Musselwhite is expected to contribute 170–180 koz, while Camino Rojo is forecast to produce 95–105 koz [73]. Longer term, the South Railroad project could bring additional annual production once permitted, and the Musselwhite extension points to potential reserve growth [74]. Management has set a strategic target of 500 koz/year of gold production by the late 2020s [75].
Analyst forecasts vary. Desjardins lifted its FY‑2025 EPS estimate to US$0.70 and projected US$1.22 in FY‑2026 [76]. CIBC continues to rate the stock outperform with a $14.50 target price [77], whereas Stifel Nicolaus cut its target to C$18.50 [78]. MarketBeat’s consensus price target of C$14.75 implies potential downside from the current price after the recent rally [79]. TipRanks shows the most recent rating as Hold with a C$15 target [80], reflecting mixed views on valuation after the run‑up.
The Macro Environment: Gold’s meteoric rise
The economic environment in 2025 has been highly supportive for gold miners. Gold prices reached record highs above US$3,900/oz in early October 2025, driven by expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainty【607318432880491†L182-L245】. Analysts at UBS forecast gold could reach US$4,200/oz by year‑end, while Marex analyst Edward Meir noted that funds might push prices to US$4,000/oz【607318432880491†L182-L245】. Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 forecast to US$4,000/oz, citing central‑bank buying and a weaker U.S. dollar [81].
J.P. Morgan Research projects gold to average US$3,675/oz in Q4 2025 and suggests the price could overshoot toward US$4,000/oz by mid‑2026 due to continued central‑bank purchases and investor demand [82]. A DelMorgan & Co. analysis adds that supply constraints, rising costs and regulatory burdens could further support prices [83] [84]. Together, these factors provide a powerful tailwind for producers like Orla, although higher input costs and permitting timelines remain risks.
Institutional & Insider Activity
The early October MarketBeat article reported that 43 % of Orla’s shares are owned by institutional investors [85]. Newmont’s complete exit removed a strategic shareholder but broadened the free float. Simply Wall St analysis after the board change noted that the stock is considered fairly valued at CA$18.26, implying roughly 28 % upside at the time [86] [87]. The same article warned that the company’s long‑term growth depends heavily on successfully permitting South Railroad and controlling costs at Musselwhite [88].
Conclusion: Outlook for Investors
Orla Mining has transformed from a single‑asset junior into a diversified producer within just a few years. The Musselwhite acquisition, Camino Rojo production and the development of South Railroad give the company multiple paths for growth. The dramatic rise in gold prices to nearly US$4,000/oz has provided a tailwind, but also raises expectations.
Short‑term investors should be aware of heightened volatility. The stock has tripled in a year, valuations (P/E ~204 [89]) are stretched relative to historical norms, and analysts’ price targets mostly sit below the current share price [90]. Longer‑term investors may focus on Orla’s potential to grow production toward 500 koz/year through exploration and permitting successes, as well as its commitment to ESG practices. With central banks continuing to accumulate gold and macroeconomic uncertainty high, Orla Mining remains well positioned – but execution on development projects and cost control will be crucial determinants of whether the stock can sustain its golden run.
In summary, the report reveals that Orla Mining’s stock surged more than threefold over the past year, closing at $16.40 on 6 October 2025 and outperforming both its 52-week low of $3.81 and the pre-market price of $10.75 seen in mid-September [91]. This remarkable rally was fuelled by record-breaking gold prices exceeding $3,900/oz, strong Q2 results with revenue tripling and net income reaching $48.2 million [92], and the transformative acquisition of the high-grade Musselwhite mine. The discovery of a two-kilometre extension at Musselwhite further bolstered investor optimism, suggesting significant reserve upside [93].
The document also highlights notable risks and considerations. A pit-wall collapse at Camino Rojo prompted a cut to 2025 production guidance and raised all-in sustaining cost forecasts [94], while Newmont’s complete exit removed a major strategic shareholder but expanded the free float [95]. Analysts remain generally bullish with a consensus “Buy” rating, yet most price targets sit below the current share price, implying limited short-term upside [96]. The company’s ambitious goal of producing 500 koz/year hinges on successful permitting for the South Railroad project and disciplined cost control. Despite high valuations, Orla’s diversified asset base, strong ESG credentials and exposure to an ultra-bullish gold market position it as a compelling—though volatile—play for investors seeking leveraged exposure to precious metals.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.tipranks.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.tipranks.com, 22. orlamining.com, 23. orlamining.com, 24. orlamining.com, 25. orlamining.com, 26. orlamining.com, 27. orlamining.com, 28. www.jpmorgan.com, 29. www.jpmorgan.com, 30. www.investing.com, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. www.investing.com, 33. www.marketbeat.com, 34. orlamining.com, 35. orlamining.com, 36. orlamining.com, 37. orlamining.com, 38. www.tipranks.com, 39. orlamining.com, 40. orlamining.com, 41. www.businesswire.com, 42. orlamining.com, 43. www.businesswire.com, 44. orlamining.com, 45. orlamining.com, 46. orlamining.com, 47. orlamining.com, 48. orlamining.com, 49. orlamining.com, 50. orlamining.com, 51. orlamining.com, 52. orlamining.com, 53. www.edgen.tech, 54. orlamining.com, 55. orlamining.com, 56. orlamining.com, 57. www.edgen.tech, 58. orlamining.com, 59. orlamining.com, 60. orlamining.com, 61. orlamining.com, 62. orlamining.com, 63. orlamining.com, 64. orlamining.com, 65. orlamining.com, 66. orlamining.com, 67. orlamining.com, 68. orlamining.com, 69. orlamining.com, 70. www.edgen.tech, 71. www.edgen.tech, 72. orlamining.com, 73. orlamining.com, 74. orlamining.com, 75. orlamining.com, 76. www.marketbeat.com, 77. www.marketbeat.com, 78. www.marketbeat.com, 79. www.marketbeat.com, 80. www.tipranks.com, 81. www.reuters.com, 82. www.jpmorgan.com, 83. delmorganco.com, 84. delmorganco.com, 85. www.marketbeat.com, 86. simplywall.st, 87. simplywall.st, 88. simplywall.st, 89. www.marketbeat.com, 90. www.marketbeat.com, 91. www.investing.com, 92. orlamining.com, 93. orlamining.com, 94. orlamining.com, 95. www.businesswire.com, 96. www.marketbeat.com
